Seven BE locks...

[bpo57]

SU, Marquette, ND, Georgetown, USF, Louisville and Cinci. Huge wins for USF and Cinci.

UConn, WVa and the Hall on the bubble. Imo most likely outcome is that one of these three makes it. Outside shot that two get in but they need minimal bids stolen by surprise teams winning their conference tournaments. If there is a flurry of tournament shockers then none of them get in. What makes it even more tough is that SU is standing in the way of whichever one of them comes out of the 8/9 game. Eight looks like the best guess right now.

 

[pearl31]

Not sure I'd call SFU a lock quite yet. It may come down to their game Saturday against WVU - that could end up being a play-in game of sorts.
The rest of this week and next week in the garden is going to be quite the BE drama.

 

[CorduroyG]

I think south florida needs 1 more win to be a lock, either against wvu or bet. Theyre in the "should be in" category.

 

[bpo57]

Not sure I'd call SFU a lock quite yet. It may come down to their game Saturday against WVU - that could end up being a play-in game of sorts.
The rest of this week and next week in the garden is going to be quite the BE drama.

Yeah their resume isn't all that impressive. I just think 12 wins in the BE will probably work. One thing it does is make it extremely difficult to take one of those three bubble teams ahead of USF. Unless one of those three do big damage in the BET.

 

[pearl31]

I'll add that, while it would be cool to see SFU get into the dance and get a double-bye in the BET, I'll be rooting for WVU to beat them on Sat. That would then mean we won't have to deal with uconn until maybe Friday (assuming SHU also beats depaul)

 

[Marsh01]

Tough to keep out a BCS team with 12 conference wins. I know Kentucky a few years ago had a similar season to USF and got in with 12 mediocre conference wins. One more and its 100%.

 

[Garbs]

I think USF and Cincy both need one more one, regardless of where it comes

 

[EastCoast2]

20 wins and in. Period.

 

[jdubs30]

Since losing at home to UConn before New Year's (Dec. 28th), USF's only conference losses have come on the road vs. the top 4 teams: @ Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ ND, @ Georgetown.

 

[jncuse]

20 wins and in. Period.

I don't think reaching 20 wins is a defining factor at all.

 

[Marsh01]

Here is the deal

There are about 3-4 teams that basically control what happens to the bubble. They are:

Wichita State
Creighton
Murray State
Long Beach State

These teams are locks for the tournament (I think LBSU is a lock so I lumped them into the discussion). If ANY of these teams do not win their conference tournament, that eliminates 1-4 at large bubble teams. Then throw in these teams who are currently in the field and some are the last few in but are not neccessarily locks:

Drexel/VCU
Harvard
Iona
Oral Roberts

What if Havard doesnt win the Ivy? Do they get a bid? What if Drexel and VCU play for the conference title game. Does the loser get a bid? What if Iona makes it to the conference championship game and loses, do they get a bid? Ditto for Oral Roberts.

These teams control everything and will ultimately determine how many BE teams are in the field. If all 4 of the first set of teams dont with their conference tourneys then you can kiss 10 BE teams goodbye (and probably 9).

 

[RandygoCuse]

Not sure I'd call SFU a lock quite yet. It may come down to their game Saturday against WVU - that could end up being a play-in game of sorts.
The rest of this week and next week in the garden is going to be quite the BE drama.

Totally agreee...It's interesting that they get a bye in the first round. They may have preferred to not get the bye and get an easier team to beat. Granted having the bye means they get to play a team playing their 2nd game in two days.

 

[SUfanNC]

20 wins and in. Period.

We had a 20 plus win season a few years back and didn't get in. I don't think that 20 wins is the mark like it use to be.


Also it seem like I kept hearing Big East is down this year but we still may get 8 teams in.

 

[jncuse]

Good Analysis Marsh. I think you should start an official bubble buster thread with the groups you listed, Agreed with the separation of the two groups. No other mid majors to add to your second group.

However, I would certainly add Southern Mississippi and Memphis to the first group. The risk of another CUSA team winning that tournament, is IMO greater then another MVC team overcoming Creighton and Wichita St.

So I would add a third group - conferences that can also steal a bid. With the PAC-12 its difficult, because you don't know who if anybody is in the first place, and will they just take out one of their own.

A10 (you could argue Temple and St. Louis for the top group)
PAC 12

 

[Marsh01]

Good Analysis Marsh. I think you should start an official bubble buster thread with the groups you listed, Agreed with the separation of the two groups. No other mid majors to add to your second group.

However, I would certainly add Southern Mississippi and Memphis to the first group. The risk of another CUSA team winning that tournament, is IMO greater then another MVC team overcoming Creighton and Wichita St.

So I would add a third group - conferences that can also steal a bid. With the PAC-12 its difficult, because you don't know who if anybody is in the first place, and will they just take out one of their own.

A10 (you could argue Temple and St. Louis for the top group)
PAC 12

You are right about Memphis and So Miss. It is going to be a crazy next 7-10 days that is for sure. I am just glad we as Syracuse fans have a front row seat in the penthouse for it.

 

[TinyManInside]

We had a 20 plus win season a few years back and didn't get in. I don't think that 20 wins is the mark like it use to be.


Also it seem like I kept hearing Big East is down this year but we still may get 8 teams in.

8 would be 3 less bids than last year, so yes that would be a down year.

I would if the collectively poor performance of the BE in last year's dance (UConn notwithstanding) will have any factor in decisions this year?

 

[Marsh01]

8 would be 3 less bids than last year, so yes that would be a down year.

I would if the collectively poor performance of the BE in last year's dance (UConn notwithstanding) will have any factor in decisions this year?

You would think it would not but who knows what goes on in that room.

Al I know is the days of bubble watching games because we were heavily invested in the outcomes is something I hope we dont have to go through for a very long time.

 

[jncuse]

Totally agreee...It's interesting that they get a bye in the first round. They may have preferred to not get the bye and get an easier team to beat. Granted having the bye means they get to play a team playing their 2nd game in two days.

The worst thing for USF if they end up in fifth place is that they actually have to play a bad team in the second round and have the chance to do something stupid. They have proven over and over they can beat those teams, so a win only avoids bad, but does not add to the resume,

It would be better if USF was playing a UConn/WVU/Seton Hall type in the second round. A loss would not hurt nearly as bad. Of couse the win would clearly put you over the top --- but I think after winning at Louisville they are over the top right now as long as they do nothing stupid.

 

[MGP]

I'll add that, while it would be cool to see SFU get into the dance and get a double-bye in the BET, I'll be rooting for WVU to beat them on Sat. That would then mean we won't have to deal with uconn until maybe Friday (assuming SHU also beats depaul)

SFU, "SFU" is going dancing!

 

[Garbs]

I would if the collectively poor performance of the BE in last year's dance (UConn notwithstanding) will have any factor in decisions this year?

absolutely zero factor

 

[EastCoast2]

I don't think reaching 20 wins is a defining factor at all.

This season with the incredibly weak bubble it is, IMO.

 

[EastCoast2]

We had a 20 plus win season a few years back and didn't get in. I don't think that 20 wins is the mark like it use to be.


Also it seem like I kept hearing Big East is down this year but we still may get 8 teams in.

This season 20 wins and in. I know we got snubbed 2 seasons in a row with impressive win totals, but this year is completely different.

 

[MGP]

This season with the incredibly weak bubble it is, IMO.

Not a factor but a fact.

 

[SUfanNC]

This season 20 wins and in. I know we got snubbed 2 seasons in a row with impressive win totals, but this year is completely different.

I agree with what your saying this year but it seems every year there is a What pick. I think Wake got in last year or the year before and I didn't even realize they were in the conversation. I guess my point is nothing is gaurteed and I there seem to be at least one crazy moment on selection sunday

 

[jncuse]

If Cincy had lost last night vs Marquette, at Nova this weekend and the first game of the BET, they would have 20 wins... and liekly be out.

Its true that most teams from the BE that win 20 games this year almost inherently have to do have done enough good stuff to get in the tourney.

20 games means you likely have done alot of good. But its not some magical number that overrides all.