Seven BE locks...

[Knicks411]

Tough to keep out a BCS team with 12 conference wins. I know Kentucky a few years ago had a similar season to USF and got in with 12 mediocre conference wins. One more and its 100%.

And don't forget Alabama just last year. And those were 12-4 instead of 12-6.

I dunno, USF is on the doorstep, but they did nothing OOC, and even in conference, they have 3 wins over tourny teams, 2 of them at home by a point against teams that aren't even locks yet.

 

[Marsh01]

And don't forget Alabama just last year. And those were 12-4 instead of 12-6.

I dunno, USF is on the doorstep, but they did nothing OOC, and even in conference, they have 3 wins over tourny teams, 2 of them at home by a point against teams that aren't even locks yet.

Yea but Alabama's downfall was that the SEC plays that 2 division conference crap and that really hurt them because the schedule was so unbalanced.

 

[jncuse]

And don't forget Alabama just last year. And those were 12-4 instead of 12-6.

I dunno, USF is on the doorstep, but they did nothing OOC, and even in conference, they have 3 wins over tourny teams, 2 of them at home by a point against teams that aren't even locks yet.

The big advantage for USF over Bama is that their RPI will be in the 40's rather then #70. It will matter -- should it, probably not

 

[bpo57]

Here is the deal

There are about 3-4 teams that basically control what happens to the bubble. They are:

Wichita State
Creighton
Murray State
Long Beach State

These teams are locks for the tournament (I think LBSU is a lock so I lumped them into the discussion). If ANY of these teams do not win their conference tournament, that eliminates 1-4 at large bubble teams. Then throw in these teams who are currently in the field and some are the last few in but are not neccessarily locks:

Drexel/VCU
Harvard
Iona
Oral Roberts

What if Havard doesnt win the Ivy? Do they get a bid? What if Drexel and VCU play for the conference title game. Does the loser get a bid? What if Iona makes it to the conference championship game and loses, do they get a bid? Ditto for Oral Roberts.

These teams control everything and will ultimately determine how many BE teams are in the field. If all 4 of the first set of teams dont with their conference tourneys then you can kiss 10 BE teams goodbye (and probably 9).

I think the answer to most of the questions you pose in the second to last paragraph is yes and that's why I call it drawing to an inside straight. There are plenty of potential landmines that make the probability of ten getting into the BE very remote.

 

[jncuse]

Yea but Alabama's downfall was that the SEC plays that 2 division conference crap and that really hurt them because teh schedule was so unbalanced.

Absolutely -- teams that played in the SEC East basically played a Big East type difficulty schedule last year. And teams in the SEC west, played an Atlantic-10 like schedule.

The metrics say that USF schedule is much more difficult this year then Bama in 2011 (Hence the much higher RPI)

 

[bpo57]

absolutely zero factor

I don't buy that at all.

 

[Knicks411]

Yea but Alabama's downfall was that the SEC plays that 2 division conference crap and that really hurt them because the schedule was so unbalanced.

Granted. Point is I think we're past the point where it's going to be X number of conf wins is a golden ticket.

Man, looking at that SEC west last year; LSu (227 pomeroy), Auburn (214), Miss st (116), Ole Miss (70), Arkansas (105).

 

[jncuse]

I don't buy that at all.

Technically it is not supposed to make a difference. But practically, when there is still a sniff test element to the proceedings it very well could.

 

[Garbs]

I don't buy that at all.

doesn't matter if bpo57 on syracuse message board buys it is the truth, lol conspiracy theories

:crazy:

 

[bpo57]

doesn't matter if bpo57 on syracuse message board buys it is the truth, lol conspiracy theories

:crazy:

Conspiracy theory? lol. Nah, it's more like last year they invited 11 BE teams into the tourney and the vast majority of them shat the bed. In plain english the committee overinvited and overseeded the BE last year. Plain and simple. As somebody famous said last year- they did a turrible job. If you were on the Committee that wouldn't cross your mind if somebody was trying to sell you on the notion that the 10th BE team merited an invite? Common sense, no?

 

[Knicks411]

Conspiracy theory? lol. Nah, it's more like last year they invited 11 BE teams into the tourney and the vast majority of them shat the bed. In plain english the committee overinvited and overseeded the BE last year. Plain and simple. As somebody famous said last year- they did a turrible job. If you were on the Committee that wouldn't cross your mind if somebody was trying to sell you on the notion that the 10th BE team merited an invite? Common sense, no?

I doubt it makes that much of a difference. I think they really do just end up comparing teams; I think fans put way too much emphasis on conference affiliation.

 

[Garbs]

Conspiracy theory? lol. Nah, it's more like last year they invited 11 BE teams into the tourney and the vast majority of them shat the bed. In plain english the committee overinvited and overseeded the BE last year. Plain and simple. As somebody famous said last year- they did a turrible job. If you were on the Committee that wouldn't cross your mind if somebody was trying to sell you on the notion that the 10th BE team merited an invite? Common sense, no?

overinvited? did you watch the season last year? 1) they dominated the OOC and absolutely deserved to all be in; 2) overseeded? maybe but probably had more to do with 11 teams being in then them actually overseeding; 3) yes they underachieved but 2 of the teams were eliminated by other big east teams

not too mention 3 big east teams did not lose to a team outside of the big east for the whole year

besides all that, the committee has enough data too look at that they are definitely not looking at data from previous years

I am sure they sit in the conference room, "well pitt has never made the final 4 let's just stop inviting them", oh syracuse upset by vermont, not making that mistake this year" etc

they say they look at teams sans conference affiliation, obviously that can't be entirely true but your conspiracy theory is ridiculous

"oh Kentucky won a bunch of championships 50 years ago let's give them a #1 even though they are on the buble"

 

[bpo57]

overinvited? did you watch the season last year? 1) they dominated the OOC and absolutely deserved to all be in; 2) overseeded? maybe but probably had more to do with 11 teams being in then them actually overseeding; 3) yes they underachieved but 2 of the teams were eliminated by other big east teams

not too mention 3 big east teams did not lose to a team outside of the big east for the whole year

besides all that, the committee has enough data too look at that they are definitely not looking at data from previous years

I am sure they sit in the conference room, "well pitt has never made the final 4 let's just stop inviting them", oh syracuse upset by vermont, not making that mistake this year" etc

they say they look at teams sans conference affiliation, obviously that can't be entirely true but your conspiracy theory is ridiculous

"oh Kentucky won a bunch of championships 50 years ago let's give them a #1 even though they are on the buble"

Where to begin. Villanova had no business being in the tourney. Overseeded? Not even really worth a discussion. They had a #1 lose to a #8, a 6 lose to an 11, another 6 lose to an 11, a 2 lose to a 10, a 4 lose to a 13 and many of the losses were not even remotely close. Yeah two were eliminated by fellow BE teams, that's one way to look at it. Another way is to say that they didn't have to beat a non-BE team to advance. You'd have to twist yourself into a pretzel to say the BE wasn't overseeded last year. I give you credit for trying. Keep applying the lipstick on that pig.

It's not a conspiracy theory. I just think it is fresh in people's minds what happened last year when they invited a ton of BE teams and they might not want to hear the criticism that would come with inviting ten BE teams this year. Not a big factor but I think it is possible it comes into play in a minor way.

 

[Garbs]

Where to begin. Villanova had no business being in the tourney. Overseeded? Not even really worth a discussion. They had a #1 lose to a #8, a 6 lose to an 11, another 6 lose to an 11, a 2 lose to a 10, a 4 lose to a 13 and many of the losses were not even remotely close. Yeah two were eliminated by fellow BE teams, that's one way to look at it. Another way is to say that they didn't have to beat a non-BE team to advance. You'd have to twist yourself into a pretzel to say the BE wasn't overseeded last year. I give you credit for trying. Keep applying the lipstick on that pig.

It's not a conspiracy theory. I just think it is fresh in people's minds what happened last year when they invited a ton of BE teams and they might not want to hear the criticism that would come with inviting ten BE teams this year. Not a big factor but I think it is possible it comes into play in a minor way.

you aren't even reading my posts, so this will be my last response

seeding and results have nothing to do with each other, by your logic UConn, VCU, Butler, and UK should have been the one seeds last year

you are a moron if you think past performance has anything to do with how the committee determines who makes it, and that is absolutely a conpiracy theory, the committee worrying about criticism? if they were worried about that a team like VCU would not have made it last year

 

[bpo57]

Thanks for the warning on the last response and appreciate the name calling as well. Part of the rationale for inviting ten BE teams is that you think it is an exceptionally good conference. That is what they thought last year. They were wrong. Don't twist my words- I am not saying it is a major factor but if I were on that committee I would think twice about inviting ten BE teams based on why happened last year. Media hype and tv coverage doesn't make the BE an exceptional conference.

 

[omniorange]

bpo57, I believe you are failing to understand some points Garbs and others have been trying to make to you over a couple different threads.

First, the BE's performance in the NCAAs last year is immaterial to the fact that the selection committee chose 11 teams from the conference to be in the dance. Those choices were made based upon what had happened during the regular season - which including just OOC games those 11 teams went 10-4 against Top 25 teams and 10-6 vs Top 26-50 teams for an overall Top 50 record of 20-10 for those 11 teams. The next best conference in terms of bids, the Big Ten (which got 7 out of 11 teams in) finished 4-11 in Top 50 for those 7 teams. The third best conference overall was the Big 12 which finished 13-8 in Top 50 wins OOC for their top 6 teams.

But more importantly, the bubble this year is even worse than the bubble was last year. I just don't see how the Big East doesn't get at least 8 in, probably 9, with an outside shot at 10 if things fall just right. And yes, the Big East this year is down in comparison to last year.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[bpo57]

bpo57, I believe you are failing to understand some points Garbs and others have been trying to make to you over a couple different threads.

First, the BE's performance in the NCAAs last year is immaterial to the fact that the selection committee chose 11 teams from the conference to be in the dance. Those choices were made based upon what had happened during the regular season - which including just OOC games those 11 teams went 10-4 against Top 25 teams and 10-6 vs Top 26-50 teams for an overall Top 50 record of 20-10 for those 11 teams. The next best conference in terms of bids, the Big Ten (which got 7 out of 11 teams in) finished 4-11 in Top 50 for those 7 teams. The third best conference overall was the Big 12 which finished 13-8 in Top 50 wins OOC for their top 6 teams.

But more importantly, the bubble this year is even worse than the bubble was last year. I just don't see how the Big East doesn't get at least 8 in, probably 9, with an outside shot at 10 if things fall just right. And yes, the Big East this year is down in comparison to last year.

Cheers,
Neil

Actually Neil I think it's the other way around. You're clearly not getting my point. Maybe that's my fault so I'll give it another try.

If the Committee is going to take ten BE teams then they are going to have to take some teams that finished below .500 in the conference. How many times has that happened in the past? You can probably count them on one hand. So the only rationale for taking these under .500 teams is if you believe the BE is a tremendous conference. Yeah these teams finished under .500 but the BE is just the baddest conference on the planet so don't be confused by the under .500 record. Here is where last year came in. If I were on the Committee there would be a small seed of doubt in my mind if somebody was trying to tell me the BE was so tremendous. I would think yeah that's what they told me last year. Not at all saying it is a big factor, just saying I don't think it's a complete non-factor.

For the record I think ten should have gotten in last year so I am not arguing so much that too many got in. But I do believe that the conference was overrated last year and said so at the time.

One other thing, Neil. You keep saying the bubble is worse than ever. I don't know why you believe that as you provide no basis for that point of view. But I think the ACC, B12 and PAC10 will get the same amount of bids if not more than they got last year.

But hey we can agree to disagree and if anybody is so confident that the BE will get ten in then I am happy to give them generous odds at 5 to 1 and even money that the league gets less than nine.

 

[cuseattle]

On a random note, I really hope Northwestern gets in this year. They look pretty good and play in a very tough Big 10.

 

[omniorange]

Actually Neil I think it's the other way around. You're clearly not getting my point. Maybe that's my fault so I'll give it another try.

If the Committee is going to take ten BE teams then they are going to have to take some teams that finished below .500 in the conference. How many times has that happened in the past? You can probably count them on one hand. So the only rationale for taking these under .500 teams is if you believe the BE is a tremendous conference. Yeah these teams finished under .500 but the BE is just the baddest conference on the planet so don't be confused by the under .500 record. Here is where last year came in. If I were on the Committee there would be a small seed of doubt in my mind if somebody was trying to tell me the BE was so tremendous. I would think yeah that's what they told me last year. Not at all saying it is a big factor, just saying I don't think it's a complete non-factor.

For the record I think ten should have gotten in last year so I am not arguing so much that too many got in. But I do believe that the conference was overrated last year and said so at the time.

One other thing, Neil. You keep saying the bubble is worse than ever. I don't know why you believe that as you provide no basis for that point of view. But I think the ACC, B12 and PAC10 will get the same amount of bids if not more than they got last year.

But hey we can agree to disagree and if anybody is so confident that the BE will get ten in then I am happy to give them generous odds at 5 to 1 and even money that the league gets less than nine.

You appear to be moving the goalposts:

"I'll do a bet even money that BE gets no more than 8. I'll pay you 5 to 1 odds if they get 10 and you pay me 5 to 1 odds if they get seven."

As the earlier quote from you above shows, your stance has pretty much been 7 bids with an outside shot at 8, while those disagreeing with that have been saying a minimum of 8, 9 likely, with an outside shot at 10.

I do agree with your point about a less than .500 conference record, but as of this moment in time, only UConn is assured of that and they have the computer numbers that have warranted those rare exceptions in the past. Now, of course, the way the Huskies are playing they could lose tomorrow and then lose their first game in the BET in which case sayonara. But that hasn't happened yet.

The other two who could finish less than .500 are Seton Hall and WVU. If both get the job done, they stand an excellent shot of getting bids since the bubble is even worse this year than it was last year.

Last year's final selections were supposedly Clemson, UAB, VCU, and Southern Cal. Southern Cal had 2 Top 25 wins, 3 Top 50 wins. I don't think there is a bubble team this year that has anything close to that. I think even some of those considered to be in now like Cincinnati have as good a record as USC had last year. VCU had 2 Top 25 wins and 1 Top 50 win. Only a handful of the final 8 have a record comparable to that. Most of the last 8 on the bubble have records more comparable to UAB and Clemson, records that will still probably get 3-4 of them "in" the tourney.

Big 12, which had 5 last year, will get 6 this year.
ACC, which had 4 last year, will likely get 5 but could still only get 4 if Miami tanks in the ACC tourney.
The Pac, which had 4 last year, will get 2 in, maybe a third if Arizona or Oregon get hot in their tourney.
The Big Ten which had 7 in last year will get 7 in again this year, assuming a sympathy vote for Northwestern carries them.
The SEC will get in 5 again this year.

So, as can be seen, the power conferences will get about the same number of combined bids this year as they received last year, even if the Big East were to get 10, which I, myself, don't see happening.

Should be interesting to see what actually happens Selection Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[bpo57]

You appear to be moving the goalposts:

"I'll do a bet even money that BE gets no more than 8. I'll pay you 5 to 1 odds if they get 10 and you pay me 5 to 1 odds if they get seven."

As the earlier quote from you above shows, your stance has pretty much been 7 bids with an outside shot at 8, while those disagreeing with that have been saying a minimum of 8, 9 likely, with an outside shot at 10.

I do agree with your point about a less than .500 conference record, but as of this moment in time, only UConn is assured of that and they have the computer numbers that have warranted those rare exceptions in the past. Now, of course, the way the Huskies are playing they could lose tomorrow and then lose their first game in the BET in which case sayonara. But that hasn't happened yet.

The other two who could finish less than .500 are Seton Hall and WVU. If both get the job done, they stand an excellent shot of getting bids since the bubble is even worse this year than it was last year.

Last year's final selections were supposedly Clemson, UAB, VCU, and Southern Cal. Southern Cal had 2 Top 25 wins, 3 Top 50 wins. I don't think there is a bubble team this year that has anything close to that. I think even some of those considered to be in now like Cincinnati have as good a record as USC had last year. VCU had 2 Top 25 wins and 1 Top 50 win. Only a handful of the final 8 have a record comparable to that. Most of the last 8 on the bubble have records more comparable to UAB and Clemson, records that will still probably get 3-4 of them "in" the tourney.

Big 12, which had 5 last year, will get 6 this year.
ACC, which had 4 last year, will likely get 5 but could still only get 4 if Miami tanks in the ACC tourney.
The Pac, which had 4 last year, will get 2 in, maybe a third if Arizona or Oregon get hot in their tourney.
The Big Ten which had 7 in last year will get 7 in again this year, assuming a sympathy vote for Northwestern carries them.
The SEC will get in 5 again this year.

So, as can be seen, the power conferences will get about the same number of combined bids this year as they received last year, even if the Big East were to get 10, which I, myself, don't see happening.

Should be interesting to see what actually happens Selection Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil

Moving the goalposts? I have no idea what you are talking about. My stance and bet proposals have been consistent. I believe the BE will not get more than 8 bids and as an outlier are more likely to have 7 than 10. Been entirely consistent on that and would love to see you prove otherwise. I disagree with you on the Pac12 getting two bids. Of course if you are that confident that the BE gets 9 or 10 then let's concoct a wager, i.e. put money where mouth is.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm willing to do the wager as outlined above.

Big 12, which had 5 last year, will get 6 this year.
ACC, which had 4 last year, will likely get 5 but could still only get 4 if Miami tanks in the ACC tourney.
The Pac, which had 4 last year, will get 2 in, maybe a third if Arizona or Oregon get hot in their tourney.
The Big Ten which had 7 in last year will get 7 in again this year, assuming a sympathy vote for Northwestern carries them.
The SEC will get in 5 again this year.

I think you may be a little kind to the Big 12. Texas is still very much on the bubble. And yeah, it would be almost impossible for the Pac-10 to get 4 teams in again.

I really don't think the committee looks too much at last year. A lot of BE teams went out early last year; that's true. But I don't think it will weigh on them too much this year, and I will put my money where my mouth is.

 

[Marsh01]

The only thing that is going to determine how many bids the BE gets is who ends up winning 4-5 conference tournaments. If the right teams win (Murray ST, Creighton, Wichita St, Long Beach) then there will be more spots for at large teams. It all will come down to how many spots are available. If there are 4-5 "extra spots" because there are no bid stealers then yes I think the BE will get 8-10 teams. If there are 4-5 bid stealers then they probably get 7-8 max.

Really has little to do with who is most deserving. That all is decided IF there are spots. If there are no spots then these teams are SOL regardless of what happens.

 

[netman99]

SU, Marquette, ND, Georgetown, USF, Louisville and Cinci. Huge wins for USF and Cinci.

UConn, WVa and the Hall on the bubble. Imo most likely outcome is that one of these three makes it. Outside shot that two get in but they need minimal bids stolen by surprise teams winning their conference tournaments. If there is a flurry of tournament shockers then none of them get in. What makes it even more tough is that SU is standing in the way of whichever one of them comes out of the 8/9 game. Eight looks like the best guess right now.

Normally I would wish the Big East would get all 10 in. However the more in , the better chance we meet a Big east team in the NCAAs. I would hate to come up against another BE team in the tourney. If only 8 make it then we would not meet on one until the final 8 if the committee adheres to previous seeding format.

 

[arrow2arinzesknee]

I'm willing to do the wager as outlined above.



I think you may be a little kind to the Big 12. Texas is still very much on the bubble. And yeah, it would be almost impossible for the Pac-10 to get 4 teams in again.

I really don't think the committee looks too much at last year. A lot of BE teams went out early last year; that's true. But I don't think it will weigh on them too much this year, and I will put my money where my mouth is.

And another thing, so a lot of Big East schools went out early

mind telling me what conference the only team left standing belonged in?

 

[jncuse]

bpo57, I believe you are failing to understand some points Garbs and others have been trying to make to you over a couple different threads.

First, the BE's performance in the NCAAs last year is immaterial to the fact that the selection committee chose 11 teams from the conference to be in the dance. Those choices were made based upon what had happened during the regular season - which including just OOC games those 11 teams went 10-4 against Top 25 teams and 10-6 vs Top 26-50 teams for an overall Top 50 record of 20-10 for those 11 teams. The next best conference in terms of bids, the Big Ten (which got 7 out of 11 teams in) finished 4-11 in Top 50 for those 7 teams. The third best conference overall was the Big 12 which finished 13-8 in Top 50 wins OOC for their top 6 teams.

But more importantly, the bubble this year is even worse than the bubble was last year. I just don't see how the Big East doesn't get at least 8 in, probably 9, with an outside shot at 10 if things fall just right. And yes, the Big East this year is down in comparison to last year.

Cheers,
Neil

Very good analysis of last year - that OOC resulted in none of our 11 invites being anywhere close to the bubble.

Although I would argue that last year's bubble was basically as soft as this year's. USC and Colorado, the two BCS teams on the bubble, did not have great resumes. Certainly the BE teams this year would measure up with them.