So Analyze This: Virginia Tech

[2-3zone]

VT as a team shoots 42.5% from 3 and averages 8.7 3FGM/game which leads the ACC

A little scary considering the way we have started games by not defending the 3 point line

 

[AlaskaSU]

Virginia Tech isn't good, but that doesn't mean they can't beat us. If Cooney struggles again, and the offense goes in the tank, we could be in for some trouble. I really hope VT doesn't slow the game down to a crawl like the U did.

They will, as will every ACC underdog that we face; bank on it.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Strange Offensive Numbers 3pt% vs Overall Efficiency

2 things that don't correlate.

1) As pointed above, 5 guys shoot a total of 44% on 18 attempts a game. As a team 42% on 20 attempts. Very good.
2) Offensive efficiency is 227th in the nation (KP schedule adjusted). This is really bad for a BCS team.

Given that level of shooting, and the benefit of strong 3 point shooting on efficiency, I would expect a better offence .

So what is going on. Obviously there 2 point shooting must be terrible. And it is. They are shooting only 45% on 2 points shots. But you have to remember they have played the 294th best schedule in the country, so that 45% is downright embarassing. I wonder if some of there high usage players just take way too many long jumpers These are the type of cupcake teams that you should be able to generate much better looks against.

The split of 2's vs 3's has been about 64%/36%. So I guess it going to be interesting how far JB pushes them out with the 2-3. Certainly you can get burnt against better offences doing that, but I'm not sure Tech has the skill level to take advantage of it. How much will we bait them into trying this way of Can we funnel some of there high usage scorers, into taking long 2's?

That is the key of the game for me - how will Jim B force VT into taking two's.

KP rankings and Past Quality Home Wins

Yes, the Seth Greenberg era VT teams were tough at home. But those teams were much better. This VT team is nowhere near as good.

2014 KP = 124 (8-5, but schedule is a bad #294, headed to below .500)
2013 KP = 158 (below .500)
2012 KP = 98 (below .500)

The Seth Greenberg NCAA bubble teams were typically 35 to 55 in KP. So those teams that beat Duke were much better than they are today. Relieving Greenberg of his duties has not really solved anything for VT.

Its still a Road Game

I have often commented that the committee misses out on quality wins by not considering sub 50 road wins. A win against a 25-50 ranked team at home is no better than a win against a 50-100 team on the road. In the past I have found team #50 at home is about the same as team #120 on the road.

This year, looking at KP numbers, VT on the road at #124 is about the same as playing team #45 at home. Playing on the road is a big difference, that I think is undervalued at times.

The line will start around 10. Just the right amount that if you play a C game, and your opponent plays an A game you will get burnet.

The difference between road and home is about 3 points.

 

[longislandcuse]

They will, as will every ACC underdog that we face; bank on it.

Which is why we need to jump out on these teams and not let them hang around. Getting a double digit lead is the best way to speed these teams up.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I still think Miami is a pushover.

Cooney shooting 2-11 (or whatever he was) was an anomaly. Going 8+ minutes without a fg to start a half is also an anomaly. Also, how many miracle 3s did Miami hit in the first half, especially considering they had only shot 30% from 3 before this game?

Things went horrifically wrong and we still won. Had this not been against lower-quality opponent, we would have lost.

Anyway, I've seen Vtech play a couple times this year...we should win easy. However, this doesn't mean we will.

They didn't hit many "miracle" threes, to be honest. Were some lower % shots? Probably, but the zone allows those type of shots.

The Cleveland state game winner was a miracle three, not any shots we saw yesterday.

 

[jncuse]

The difference between road and home is about 3 points.

No, its about 7 points. Perhaps we are looking at the same thing from a different perspective.
The home team has a 3.5 point advantage vs a neutral setting.

Say Team A is considered 5 points better than Team B

Team A is 8-9 points better than Team B at home.
Team A is 1-2 points better than Team B on the road

 

[4evaOrange]

All depends on how we come out on the offensive side, and if Tech hits miracle 3s. Also we can't have scoreless stretches.
Need to contain Eddie as well.
The no students will help as well.