So just some general observations in terms of where we are to date through 20 games:
The strengths and weaknesses are about what we figured they'd be
So we've had some seasons that, at least to me, were pretty unpredictable in the past few years. 16-17 with white and gillon added to Howard (who I thought was promising as a frosh), Roberts (who had that incredible tournament) and Lydon along with a couple good newcomers (Battle/Chuckwu/Thompson) I figured was a sweet 16 team but that didn't happen. 17-18 I thought we would be under .500 with Battle surrounded by a ton of question marks and the promise of Brissett, but that ended up being a sweet 16 team. And then 18-19 i thought we'd build on that and be a better scoring team with Hughes and a tough out in the tourney but we struggled most of the year.
This season it's played out about the way I was thinking it would -- we struggle to rebound and the defense has been leaky but we're more dangerous offensively despite not being able to break guys down off the dribble. Not sure I would have guessed that we'd be as brutal out of conference as we have been but when scrap defensively, rebound enough and get enough movement on offense, we can be pretty tough.
1-on-1 play has been ... interesting
This is a 'whole is greater than the some of its parts' team, which we also knew preseason. Not one of our players is a blow-by guy with hughes being the closest we get in that department. But what's interesting is we were passing the ball exceptionally well and piling up assists for much of the season. The stretch of six games from Ga Tech on 12/7 thru ND on 1/4 was insane -- we never had fewer than 15 assists and were generally between 18 and 23.
So the improvement in ball movement and player movement was a welcome sight. Recently those numbers have dipped but it hasn't led to poor offense, per se. We are finding success isolating Hughes and Buddy in particular with Marek in the post and that has been a nice option for us at least against the teams we've been facing the past handful of games or so. We saw Girard get into the act a bit the past couple games as well. None of those guys are getting past defenders with much frequency but they are using their bodies to create space (Hughes and Dolezaj near the basket primarily, Girard and Buddy for mid-range jumpers)
The question may be what happens when we're facing more physical teams that take that away from us. Hopefully we can still run some sets and maybe get out in transition a bit to find some buckets. Regardless, it's been interesting to watch particularly with Carey going down early.
A more aggressive Marek has been huge
Dolezaj has had an interesting season b/c he's been pretty effective all year. But if you take a look at his numbers (and I admit this is a pretty arbitrary way to split up his season but it's interesting nonetheless) he's been much more aggressive and we've been feeding him in the post more often as a result. The impact seems tangible.
First 11 games: 9.5 ppg, 59% shooting, 4.4 FTs/game (.596), 6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.5 steals, .7 blocks
Last 9 games: 11 ppg, 46% shooting, 5.2 FTs/game (.787), 8.9 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1 steal, 1.3 blocks
So what to make of those numbers? I'm not saying he's been a completely different player -- especially when you consider a couple of those games were blowouts where he didn't need to shoot (3 shots vs. Bucknell, 6 vs. GT). And, you could argue he hasn't been as efficient so the increase in scoring may be partly due to simply shooting more, which he has -- 7.4 FGs vs. 5.5 FGs in that span.
But what's been big for this team, IMO, is that he's so much more involved in the offensive game. He's shooting more, which means we are getting more points in the paint and he's drawing more fouls -- close to an FT a game more in that span and only twice in the past 9 has he shot fewer than 4 FTs (and one was against ND who rarely fouls). He's averaging 1.5 more assists per game thanks to those touches and I'm guessing some of the better FT percentage has to do with being so involved in the flow.
A more aggressive Marek is a really good thing for us in a variety of ways.
Girard is doing a nice job taking care of the ball
It's been an up-and-down year for JGIII, not unexpectedly for a frosh making a big leap in competition level. But he's been pretty solid taking care of the basketball. For the year, Girard is averaging 2 T/Os a game and he's at just 1.9 in ACC games (though his assists have taken a dip here as well). It seems like a little thing but it's a pretty good thing for a PG to make good decisions and it bodes well for us this season and for Girard's future as a lead guard here, particularly if we see other aspects of his game improve.
Buddy and Elijah from inside the arc
Everyone is pretty aware that Elijah was primarily a 3-point shooter last year but the numbers are pretty interesting. He never attempted 10 shots from inside the arc in a game the entire season and only attempted more than 6 such shots twice. In the first 14 games of this season (up through the first ND game) he shot more from 2, but still had yet to get to 10 such shots in a game. In the past six games, however, Hughes has shot from inside the arc 10+ times in four games and in his other two he was at 9 shots inside the arc.
Same for Buddy. He never shot more than six times from inside the arc his freshman year (and that was only twice -- eastern washington and pitt in the ACC tourney) and while those numbers went up as his minutes and responsibility went up this season, he only shot more than 5 shots from inside the arc twice in our first 14 games. The past six games (starting with the first Va Tech game), however, he's shot inside the arc at least six times in every game and averaged 7.33 shots from two in that span.
These two are dangerous from three and that's a huge part of what we do, but the fact that they've added some variety to their game makes us tougher to defend.
Guerrier and Sidibe are quietly putting up nice seasons
Sidibe is frustrating with is foul trouble and Guerrier hasn't been anywhere near the offensive threat many assumed he would be, but both of these guys are playing important roles. Sidibe is averaging 5.5 and 7.3 in 24 mpg and Guerrier 6 and 5 in 18 mpg. Guerrier has also played well defensively and, perhaps more importantly, seems to be playing his best basketball of the season right now. He's gone for 8 ppg and 7 rpg his last three. If he continues that type of performance it would be outstanding.
Regardless, not sure either guy will give us a whole lot more than they have so far but the fact that they're willing to do the dirty work while getting relatively few offensive touches is a huge plus as well.
The ACC stinks
Louisville, Duke and FSU are excellent but man, no one else has fewer than six losses? I'm not trying to knock our run, which has been great, but the best players we've played in these past five games have been Diakite and Mooney. Other than that ... VA Tech has a few nice freshmen in Nolley/Cone/Alleyne/Radford but none of those four are amazing. I think I like Cone the best of that group, oddly enough -- pretty good passer, quick and a good shooter. BC? Meh. Certainly no Bowman or Robinson there. I like McGowens and Johnson on Pitt but they don't blow you away either. I'm not so sure how many guys I'd take over Dolezaj/Hughes/Buddy at this point and even Girard going forward. It's really pretty thin overall. Hopefully that bodes well for us.
Hughes is not a very good player on the defensive end
Where would we be without Hughes at this point is an interesting question b/c he's been so incredibly valuable for this group from day 1. But man he's frustrating on the defensive end. He can make some really good plays and occasionally grab some key rebounds (he's been at 6.5 rpg during this five-game run), but he falls asleep on the baseline cutter over and over again. Really hurts our overall performance defensively. But, that's probably nitpicking a guy who's been outstanding offensively for a program that has struggled to score in recent years and seems like a good, level-headed leader.
The 2019-20 version of what-ifs
The fact that it took this team a while to come around is fine and really Iowa and Ped St. at least have been pretty decent. But man even splitting two winnable games at home with VA Tech and ND would have been really nice. We could have won both. I also hope with get Washington back soon b/c he adds something to the backcourt and while Guerrier has really come on, it would have been interesting to see what a healthy braswell might have contributed.
And finally -- are we a tournament team?
I don't know and frankly I'm not sure it's the most relevant question yet. The one thing I think we should feel good about is that next year's group, even without Hughes, should be expected to get us to the tourney. But if we grab three of the next four we're at least in good shape to try to steal one from L'ville/FSU and even if we don't, we'd be 9-6 with a chance at making a push for 13 acc wins, which would make us pretty hard to ignore.
What's interesting is that we actually have a 7.4 pt margin of victory. Don't know that we'll keep those numbers going the rest of the way but that's the largest margin of victory since '12-'13 (a 30-win team). Will be interesting to watch where that number ends up.
At the end of the day, however, the improvements this team is making should be really good for next year in terms of at least playing better basketball in Nov/Dec. That would be a major plus if the tourney doesn't work out this season.
The strengths and weaknesses are about what we figured they'd be
So we've had some seasons that, at least to me, were pretty unpredictable in the past few years. 16-17 with white and gillon added to Howard (who I thought was promising as a frosh), Roberts (who had that incredible tournament) and Lydon along with a couple good newcomers (Battle/Chuckwu/Thompson) I figured was a sweet 16 team but that didn't happen. 17-18 I thought we would be under .500 with Battle surrounded by a ton of question marks and the promise of Brissett, but that ended up being a sweet 16 team. And then 18-19 i thought we'd build on that and be a better scoring team with Hughes and a tough out in the tourney but we struggled most of the year.
This season it's played out about the way I was thinking it would -- we struggle to rebound and the defense has been leaky but we're more dangerous offensively despite not being able to break guys down off the dribble. Not sure I would have guessed that we'd be as brutal out of conference as we have been but when scrap defensively, rebound enough and get enough movement on offense, we can be pretty tough.
1-on-1 play has been ... interesting
This is a 'whole is greater than the some of its parts' team, which we also knew preseason. Not one of our players is a blow-by guy with hughes being the closest we get in that department. But what's interesting is we were passing the ball exceptionally well and piling up assists for much of the season. The stretch of six games from Ga Tech on 12/7 thru ND on 1/4 was insane -- we never had fewer than 15 assists and were generally between 18 and 23.
So the improvement in ball movement and player movement was a welcome sight. Recently those numbers have dipped but it hasn't led to poor offense, per se. We are finding success isolating Hughes and Buddy in particular with Marek in the post and that has been a nice option for us at least against the teams we've been facing the past handful of games or so. We saw Girard get into the act a bit the past couple games as well. None of those guys are getting past defenders with much frequency but they are using their bodies to create space (Hughes and Dolezaj near the basket primarily, Girard and Buddy for mid-range jumpers)
The question may be what happens when we're facing more physical teams that take that away from us. Hopefully we can still run some sets and maybe get out in transition a bit to find some buckets. Regardless, it's been interesting to watch particularly with Carey going down early.
A more aggressive Marek has been huge
Dolezaj has had an interesting season b/c he's been pretty effective all year. But if you take a look at his numbers (and I admit this is a pretty arbitrary way to split up his season but it's interesting nonetheless) he's been much more aggressive and we've been feeding him in the post more often as a result. The impact seems tangible.
First 11 games: 9.5 ppg, 59% shooting, 4.4 FTs/game (.596), 6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.5 steals, .7 blocks
Last 9 games: 11 ppg, 46% shooting, 5.2 FTs/game (.787), 8.9 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1 steal, 1.3 blocks
So what to make of those numbers? I'm not saying he's been a completely different player -- especially when you consider a couple of those games were blowouts where he didn't need to shoot (3 shots vs. Bucknell, 6 vs. GT). And, you could argue he hasn't been as efficient so the increase in scoring may be partly due to simply shooting more, which he has -- 7.4 FGs vs. 5.5 FGs in that span.
But what's been big for this team, IMO, is that he's so much more involved in the offensive game. He's shooting more, which means we are getting more points in the paint and he's drawing more fouls -- close to an FT a game more in that span and only twice in the past 9 has he shot fewer than 4 FTs (and one was against ND who rarely fouls). He's averaging 1.5 more assists per game thanks to those touches and I'm guessing some of the better FT percentage has to do with being so involved in the flow.
A more aggressive Marek is a really good thing for us in a variety of ways.
Girard is doing a nice job taking care of the ball
It's been an up-and-down year for JGIII, not unexpectedly for a frosh making a big leap in competition level. But he's been pretty solid taking care of the basketball. For the year, Girard is averaging 2 T/Os a game and he's at just 1.9 in ACC games (though his assists have taken a dip here as well). It seems like a little thing but it's a pretty good thing for a PG to make good decisions and it bodes well for us this season and for Girard's future as a lead guard here, particularly if we see other aspects of his game improve.
Buddy and Elijah from inside the arc
Everyone is pretty aware that Elijah was primarily a 3-point shooter last year but the numbers are pretty interesting. He never attempted 10 shots from inside the arc in a game the entire season and only attempted more than 6 such shots twice. In the first 14 games of this season (up through the first ND game) he shot more from 2, but still had yet to get to 10 such shots in a game. In the past six games, however, Hughes has shot from inside the arc 10+ times in four games and in his other two he was at 9 shots inside the arc.
Same for Buddy. He never shot more than six times from inside the arc his freshman year (and that was only twice -- eastern washington and pitt in the ACC tourney) and while those numbers went up as his minutes and responsibility went up this season, he only shot more than 5 shots from inside the arc twice in our first 14 games. The past six games (starting with the first Va Tech game), however, he's shot inside the arc at least six times in every game and averaged 7.33 shots from two in that span.
These two are dangerous from three and that's a huge part of what we do, but the fact that they've added some variety to their game makes us tougher to defend.
Guerrier and Sidibe are quietly putting up nice seasons
Sidibe is frustrating with is foul trouble and Guerrier hasn't been anywhere near the offensive threat many assumed he would be, but both of these guys are playing important roles. Sidibe is averaging 5.5 and 7.3 in 24 mpg and Guerrier 6 and 5 in 18 mpg. Guerrier has also played well defensively and, perhaps more importantly, seems to be playing his best basketball of the season right now. He's gone for 8 ppg and 7 rpg his last three. If he continues that type of performance it would be outstanding.
Regardless, not sure either guy will give us a whole lot more than they have so far but the fact that they're willing to do the dirty work while getting relatively few offensive touches is a huge plus as well.
The ACC stinks
Louisville, Duke and FSU are excellent but man, no one else has fewer than six losses? I'm not trying to knock our run, which has been great, but the best players we've played in these past five games have been Diakite and Mooney. Other than that ... VA Tech has a few nice freshmen in Nolley/Cone/Alleyne/Radford but none of those four are amazing. I think I like Cone the best of that group, oddly enough -- pretty good passer, quick and a good shooter. BC? Meh. Certainly no Bowman or Robinson there. I like McGowens and Johnson on Pitt but they don't blow you away either. I'm not so sure how many guys I'd take over Dolezaj/Hughes/Buddy at this point and even Girard going forward. It's really pretty thin overall. Hopefully that bodes well for us.
Hughes is not a very good player on the defensive end
Where would we be without Hughes at this point is an interesting question b/c he's been so incredibly valuable for this group from day 1. But man he's frustrating on the defensive end. He can make some really good plays and occasionally grab some key rebounds (he's been at 6.5 rpg during this five-game run), but he falls asleep on the baseline cutter over and over again. Really hurts our overall performance defensively. But, that's probably nitpicking a guy who's been outstanding offensively for a program that has struggled to score in recent years and seems like a good, level-headed leader.
The 2019-20 version of what-ifs
The fact that it took this team a while to come around is fine and really Iowa and Ped St. at least have been pretty decent. But man even splitting two winnable games at home with VA Tech and ND would have been really nice. We could have won both. I also hope with get Washington back soon b/c he adds something to the backcourt and while Guerrier has really come on, it would have been interesting to see what a healthy braswell might have contributed.
And finally -- are we a tournament team?
I don't know and frankly I'm not sure it's the most relevant question yet. The one thing I think we should feel good about is that next year's group, even without Hughes, should be expected to get us to the tourney. But if we grab three of the next four we're at least in good shape to try to steal one from L'ville/FSU and even if we don't, we'd be 9-6 with a chance at making a push for 13 acc wins, which would make us pretty hard to ignore.
What's interesting is that we actually have a 7.4 pt margin of victory. Don't know that we'll keep those numbers going the rest of the way but that's the largest margin of victory since '12-'13 (a 30-win team). Will be interesting to watch where that number ends up.
At the end of the day, however, the improvements this team is making should be really good for next year in terms of at least playing better basketball in Nov/Dec. That would be a major plus if the tourney doesn't work out this season.
