some perspective

[Ozcuse]

Shafer is closer to GRob than Saban in HC record and coaching ability. You may want to go back to the drawing board on this one.

BTW, you left off Saban's 9-2 HC record at Toledo in 1990. Real research below:

Shafer through first 2.5 seasons: 13-19 = 0.40625 (0.17% better than GRob, 0.23% worse than Saban)
Greg Robinson through first 2.5 seasons: 7-23 = 0.2333
Nick Saban through first 2.5 seasons: 19-11-1 = 0.6333

Even GRob was able to beat a top 25 team (LVille 38-35) in his 3rd year.

Thanks for the research idea, I'll be sure to send this in.

 

[jekelish]

Another one, then, if Saban doesn't work: would most people here want David Cutcliffe? I have a feeling most would take him in a heartbeat.

His first four years at Duke: 15-33

 

[tbonezone]

i know. your wife knows . and now you do too.that was intentionally on purpose.

 

[TheCusian]

Shafer is closer to GRob than Saban in HC record and coaching ability. You may want to go back to the drawing board on this one. BTW, you left off Saban's 9-2 HC record at Toledo in 1990. Real research below: Shafer through first 2.5 seasons: 13-19 = 0.40625 (0.17% better than GRob, 0.23% worse than Saban) Greg Robinson through first 2.5 seasons: 7-23 = 0.2333 Nick Saban through first 2.5 seasons: 19-11-1 = 0.6333 Even GRob was able to beat a top 25 team (LVille 38-35) in his 3rd year. Thanks for the research idea, I'll be sure to send this in.

3rd years not over yet.

He also said repeatedly that it wasn't a direct conp.

 

[Ozcuse]

3rd years not over yet.

I know, it could get worse.

 

[GoSU96]

Another one, then, if Saban doesn't work: would most people here want David Cutcliffe? I have a feeling most would take him in a heartbeat.

His first four years at Duke: 15-33

Are you saying that what Shafer took over and what Cutcliffe did are comparable?

Because they aren't.

Shafer - 25-25 four years prior, Duke 4-42 four years prior to Cutcliffe.

Apples and 40 year old Spam

 

[Ozcuse]

Another one, then, if Saban doesn't work: would most people here want David Cutcliffe? I have a feeling most would take him in a heartbeat.

His first four years at Duke: 15-33

You can keep cherry picking coaches but you're looking for the exception to the rule.

In all likelihood we keep Shafer for next season and jump for joy when we finish 6-6. I just don't see the guy having a high ceiling in the ACC.

 

[orangecuse]

by the way its actually for all intents and purposes.

By the way, keeping things relative...it is, it's...not its.

 

[orangecuse]

Another one, then, if Saban doesn't work: would most people here want David Cutcliffe? I have a feeling most would take him in a heartbeat.

His first four years at Duke: 15-33

One can generally always find an outlier/example to support one's narrative, etc. I'm in no way suggesting that's what you're doing. Cutcliffe, no doubt, has done an exceptional job at Duke as Duke for years was a joke of a football program...a given W on the schedule for all intents and purposes. We had become a doormat until Marrone righted the ship...objectively, looking purely at the win/loss percentages (because that's what ultimately matters) the ship is taking on water...

 

[orangeinjersey]

You can keep cherry picking coaches but you're looking for the exception to the rule.

In all likelihood we keep Shafer for next season and jump for joy when we finish 6-6. I just don't see the guy having a high ceiling in the ACC.

This is kinda what i was getting at when i initially asked what pro shafer guys would accept as the bare min of wins next year? Lets say we lose out this year, and finish 6-6 next year. After 4 seasons he will have been 19-30. Thats worth excitement?

 

[OrangeCrush22]

Nick Saban had prior head coaching experience and Nick Saban never had a losing record at MSU. His first season Nick Saban beat #7 Michigan. His third season he beat #4 Penn State and MSU was in the top 25 for the first half of the season.

 

[OrangePA]

You mean, the PITT team that beat us yesterday and has beaten us pretty consistently recently?

Yes, Pitt won the game yesterday on a late FG.

But, I think the point is not a single game or even a few games in our series with Pitt.

Pitt has been basically a 6-6 team for a number of years. And that did not have to be.

Under Dave Wannstedt Pitt won nine, ten and seven games his last three years. He was recruiting well and was basically a QB away from breaking out.

The lack of patience that prompted DW do be fired has hurt Pitt a lot in my opinion. It has cost the program money, stability and true growth.

And that is really my point here. Shafer is building something. He is clearly recruiting some quality players. True frosh are contributing a lot on both sides of the ball - Clark, Dungey, Fredericks et al.

He is well-liked. He is honest. He has ethics. His kids apparently go to school. The team plays hard. I like the offense. I like the aggressive style of defense that he plays.

I like the direction of the program. I think changing a coach at this point would be a mistake.

 

[CusefanATL]

Shafer is closer to GRob than Saban in HC record and coaching ability. You may want to go back to the drawing board on this one.

BTW, you left off Saban's 9-2 HC record at Toledo in 1990. Real research below:

Shafer through first 2.5 seasons: 13-19 = 0.40625 (0.17% better than GRob, 0.23% worse than Saban)
Greg Robinson through first 2.5 seasons: 7-23 = 0.2333
Nick Saban through first 2.5 seasons: 19-11-1 = 0.6333

Even GRob was able to beat a top 25 team (LVille 38-35) in his 3rd year.

Thanks for the research idea, I'll be sure to send this in.

seriously? work on your reading comprehension.

 

[CusefanATL]

You can keep cherry picking coaches but you're looking for the exception to the rule.

In all likelihood we keep Shafer for next season and jump for joy when we finish 6-6. I just don't see the guy having a high ceiling in the ACC.

no... at places like Duke and Syracuse - you need a coach who is able and willing to grow his orchard... and also 1 who wont leave his orchard.

Shafer is currently growing his orchard and the last 2-4 games have been growing pains for sure, but not enough to bull doze what we have growing and start all over with new seeds.

The trees are growing and the apples will start showing very soon.

I will be very disappointed with 6-6 next year and will have a hard time giving him an extension if its a basic 6-6.

 

[jgeorge322]

You people need to stop drawing parallels and just look whats happening on the field and in recruiting. I think he should get another year. Not saying he deserves it but i think another year is warranted. Also, this year isnt over yet.

 

[tipphill]

43000 avg a game. if we do that,it means we are winning. period. if we do not we are losing. spin it any way u want--this is syracuse, and w/l is the tale of the tape imho, and always will be--

 

[TheCusian]

I know, it could get worse.

Could. But it could get better too.

 

[TheCusian]

This is kinda what i was getting at when i initially asked what pro shafer guys would accept as the bare min of wins next year? Lets say we lose out this year, and finish 6-6 next year. After 4 seasons he will have been 19-30. Thats worth excitement?

That's a lot of supposition.

 

[CU44SE]

Well Saban took a team that had 19 wins over a 4 year period and sanctions I presume (forfeited the year before he took over d/t academic scandal where saban lost 6 scholarships) to 25 wins over the next 4 years so I would say they definitely made progress. Obviously I am unable to perform the eye test on his Michigan State teams.

Shafer on the other hand has taken a team that won 25 games the 4 years prior (Marrone took over arguably the worst program in college football who was 10-37 in the previous 4 years) and currently has 13 wins through year number 3. Still a year and 5 games to go but he would have to win 12 of his next 17 games to equal Marines record.

 

[CusefanATL]

Well Saban took a team that had 19 wins over a 4 year period and sanctions I presume (forfeited the year before he took over d/t academic scandal where saban lost 6 scholarships) to 25 wins over the next 4 years so I would say they definitely made progress. Obviously I am unable to perform the eye test on his Michigan State teams.

Shafer on the other hand has taken a team that won 25 games the 4 years prior (Marrone took over arguably the worst program in college football who was 10-37 in the previous 4 years) and currently has 13 wins through year number 3. Still a year and 5 games to go but he would have to win 12 of his next 17 games to equal Marines record.

for the love of christ, i am not comparing shafer to saban. NO ONE IS.

The only point is dont freaking judge a coach coming in on 2.5 yrs especially when the talent level is arguably better now than it was 2.5 yrs ago. Let him grow his system. You can see it working. the last 2 losses are enormously frustrating - but you can see the difference.

Also keep in mind that Shafer dealt with the worst injury season I have ever seen in sports and with a coach who took almost all of his assistants with him.

Shafer made 1 awful hire - awful in hindsight, but iirc this board loved getting Mcdonald for the most part.

 

[GoSU96]

but iirc this board loved getting Mcdonald for the most part.

Not everybody.

 

[CU44SE]

for the love of christ, i am not comparing shafer to saban. NO ONE IS.

The only point is dont freaking judge a coach coming in on 2.5 yrs especially when the talent level is arguably better now than it was 2.5 yrs ago. Let him grow his system. You can see it working. the last 2 losses are enormously frustrating - but you can see the difference.

Also keep in mind that Shafer dealt with the worst injury season I have ever seen in sports and with a coach who took almost all of his assistants with him.

Shafer made 1 awful hire - awful in hindsight, but iirc this board loved getting Mcdonald for the most part.

ummm, did you not say look at these records? I was providing context just like you did. Sabans win total compared to the previous 4 years increased while Shafers is most likely going to decrease. I was taking the records just as you were, maybe you just didn't want to see it that way but its the truth.

Last year I was all about firing Shafer, this year I'm with sticking with him d/t the level of talent we are starting to bring in. That does not make it easy to hear his only wins over the last year and a half is Rhode island, villanova in overtime, central michigan x 2 (once in overtime), Wake x 2. Thats not easy to digest.

 

[CusefanATL]

ummm, did you not say look at these records?

read what i said. i said in preliminary research for a possible letter to the AD, i have found some interesting stats.

And then in the next 10 posts, I said there was no comparison between shafer and saban.

 

[dollarbill44]

Shafer is closer to GRob than Saban in HC record and coaching ability. You may want to go back to the drawing board on this one.

BTW, you left off Saban's 9-2 HC record at Toledo in 1990. Real research below:

Shafer through first 2.5 seasons: 13-19 = 0.40625 (0.17% better than GRob, 0.23% worse than Saban)
Greg Robinson through first 2.5 seasons: 7-23 = 0.2333
Nick Saban through first 2.5 seasons: 19-11-1 = 0.6333

Even GRob was able to beat a top 25 team (LVille 38-35) in his 3rd year.

Thanks for the research idea, I'll be sure to send this in.

Well, since we're all nitpicking in this thread, 0.17% is less than 2/10ths of one percent. I assume you mean 17%. Likewise with the 0.23%. It's kind of a big difference as misplaced decimals have sunk people's careers in finance.

 

[phil77]

Nick Saban had prior head coaching experience and Nick Saban never had a losing record at MSU. His first season Nick Saban beat #7 Michigan. His third season he beat #4 Penn State and MSU was in the top 25 for the first half of the season.

Seems exactly like what is going on here. Saban and Shafer are the same it just takes time.