Quazzum69
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The topic of preseason rankings has arisen once again and many think the 2013-2014 team is underestimated. I did a quick review of some of the top teams (teams that have consistently been in the top 25 for the past few decades - there's not many of them) on the coaches poll to see which teams, if any, are consistently overestimated, underestimated or very close to the preseason ranking.
Basically, I just compared the team's preseason Coaches Poll rank to the final rank (pre-tourney). If the team's final rank is 6 places or more lower than the pre-season rank, they were categorized as "overestimated." If the final rank was 6 places or higher than preseason, they were "underestimated." Within five spots I considered pretty accurate. Going into the top 25 from unranked was considered underestimated and going unranked from the top 25 was considered overestimated. The years were 1995-1996 to 2012-2013.
Duke:
over (1), within 5 (14), under (3)
UNC:
over (3), within 5 (13), under (2)
SU:
over (4), within 5 (11), under (3)
Kansas:
over (4), wthin 5 (11), under (3)
Kentucky:
over (5), within 5 (11), under (2)
Michigan State:
over (7), within 5 (9), under (2)
UConn:
over (7), within 5 (7), under (4)
Obviously, this says nothing about the actual ranks or tournament performance. Injuries or suspensions are not considered either or any information about midseason ranks. For SU, the 2012-2013 season would be considered overestimated - preseason ranked 9 but the final poll was 16 but we all know how the season turned out.
SU has went from unranked preseason to final rankedtwice thrice (1995-1996 UR to #15, 2002-2003 UR to #13, 2009-2010 UR to #4) and went from ranked preseason to unranked by season's end twice (1996-1997 #12 to UR, 2006-2007 #20 to UR). Just once have they never been placed in either preseason or final poll. SU's raw average preseason rank (excluding unranked) is 15 and their final average rank is also 15. Overall, pretty accurate.
Michigan State probably is the most overestimated of all the teams, probably due to Izzo's over-performance in the tournaments. They have fallen out of the preseason top 25 four times, 01'-02', 02'-03', 03'-04' and 10'-11' with the initial ranks of 15, 9, 3, and 2, respectively. UConn has fallen out four times (initial ranks of 4, 12, 18 and 14), Kentucky four times (3, 20, 22, and 9), North Carolina three times (11, 6 and 6). Kansas and Duke have never fallen out of the preseason top 25.
Basically, I just compared the team's preseason Coaches Poll rank to the final rank (pre-tourney). If the team's final rank is 6 places or more lower than the pre-season rank, they were categorized as "overestimated." If the final rank was 6 places or higher than preseason, they were "underestimated." Within five spots I considered pretty accurate. Going into the top 25 from unranked was considered underestimated and going unranked from the top 25 was considered overestimated. The years were 1995-1996 to 2012-2013.
Duke:
over (1), within 5 (14), under (3)
UNC:
over (3), within 5 (13), under (2)
SU:
over (4), within 5 (11), under (3)
Kansas:
over (4), wthin 5 (11), under (3)
Kentucky:
over (5), within 5 (11), under (2)
Michigan State:
over (7), within 5 (9), under (2)
UConn:
over (7), within 5 (7), under (4)
Obviously, this says nothing about the actual ranks or tournament performance. Injuries or suspensions are not considered either or any information about midseason ranks. For SU, the 2012-2013 season would be considered overestimated - preseason ranked 9 but the final poll was 16 but we all know how the season turned out.
SU has went from unranked preseason to final ranked
Michigan State probably is the most overestimated of all the teams, probably due to Izzo's over-performance in the tournaments. They have fallen out of the preseason top 25 four times, 01'-02', 02'-03', 03'-04' and 10'-11' with the initial ranks of 15, 9, 3, and 2, respectively. UConn has fallen out four times (initial ranks of 4, 12, 18 and 14), Kentucky four times (3, 20, 22, and 9), North Carolina three times (11, 6 and 6). Kansas and Duke have never fallen out of the preseason top 25.