SU favored by 12 | Syracusefan.com

SU favored by 12

Betting odds are an attempt to drive equal betting on both sides so that the house can make its money on “the vig” So odds are about what the house thinks the pool of potential bettors think. They are not an expert opinion on what the score will be. The house makes its money by driving the maximum amount of money bet on a game and insuring there is a perfect balance between the two sides.
 
Townie72 said:
Betting odds are an attempt to drive equal betting on both sides so that the house can make its money on “the vig” So odds are about what the house thinks the pool of potential bettors think. They are not an expert opinion on what the score will be. The house makes its money by driving the maximum amount of money bet on a game and insuring there is a perfect balance between the two sides.
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That might be the way it operates for other sports but certainly not for college basketball. Although many share this incorrect assumption for college basketball, that is not the case for regular season games. Has been this way for several years that I have tracked it.

Vegas seems to use a margin based system that sets opening odds that is very similar to what is generated by KenPom. As strange as this line seems on the surface to most of us (including me), it almost always comes right in expectations when I go to KP to re-calculate it. Just like I have done in prior years, when other lines seem strange to us (including me).

For this one (and I don't have the KP payside that would just give me the actual line) I can calculate it easily from the free stuff on KP.

Syracuse Adjusted Efficiency Margin per 100 possessions = +11.91
Boston College Adjusted Efficiency Margin = +1.05
Difference = 10.86

Syracuse Pace = 67.7
Boston College Pace = 70.4
Average Pace = 69.1

Margin Difference * Pace = 10.86 * (69.1/100) = 7.5
Standard Home Court Margin of 3.7 (I believe this is still the standard)

Expected Line = Syracuse to win by 11.2

So it's about 1 point higher than expected.

So in essence Vegas double dips a bit:
1) They still collect there basic cut as the middle guy.
2) They have a betting system themselves that they feel is stronger than what the general public does, so they also get paid off here.

Vegas may move lines a point or two to try to reduce their exposure... may to get it from say 75-25, to 70-30. Or they may say it, and basically stick with the line even with the large variance in sides.

And why would they do this? Because of sharps. College basketball tends to have most of the public go for bigger names more often than not, even moreso than the NFL for example. Imagine how much they would have to move the line to get it to 50/50 for certain games. For example say a line started at +8 based on the system, but the only way they could get it down to close to 50/50 was to get it to +3. The sharp vultures would be out and right near the game they could put bets in so the extremely good bet has over 50% of the betting action. This is the ultimate nightmare scenario for Vegas -- to be exposed at more than 50% on the bad side. They would rather trust their betting system than that. And due to the limited action on college basketball than say something like the NFL, it is something they would always run into.
 
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CsonkaStash said:
love the Bronx Tale Reference...I call my buddy Mush all the time, because he is.
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I'm glad you mentioned that, because I didn't get the reference. I mean I still don't, but I suppose I now know how I could find out if I really wanted to. :)
 
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