that st johns loss is gonna haunt us

[CorduroyG]

assuming we're a bubble team, that loss could be the difference. st johns is god awful. if we only had 2 losses going into acc we'd be right where we need to be. i think we all would have been fine with going 2-1 in atlantis and losing 1 other game in non conference, most likely at gtown, and be 11-2 going into acc. well thats right where we'd be (using a different path) if we didnt lose to st johns.

 

[netman99]

assuming we're a bubble team, that loss could be the difference. st johns is god awful. if we only had 2 losses going into acc we'd be right where we need to be. i think we all would have been fine with going 2-1 in atlantis and losing 1 other game in non conference, most likely at gtown, and be 11-2 going into acc. well thats right where we'd be (using a different path) if we didnt lose to st johns.

We need to go 10-8 in the ACC, I don't think 9-9 will do it... That will be tough to do...

 

[shandeezy7]

We need to go 10-8 in the ACC, I don't think 9-9 will do it... That will be tough to do...

Eh, it all depends on what those wins and losses are. If we go 9-9 but beat Duke, UNC and Virginia, I think we would still be in.

 

[pearl31]

9-9 with at least one win in conf tourney might do it

 

[FrancoPizza]

Part of me thinks we should be banned from the postseason just for the johnnies loss alone. Heck we struggled to stay within 10 points of them for most of the 2nd half. let that sink in a little. It set zone relations back 30 years.

 

[CorduroyG]

Part of me thinks we should be banned from the postseason just for the johnnies loss alone. Heck we struggled to stay within 10 points of them for most of the 2nd half. let that sink in a little. It set zone relations back 30 years.

it seemed like st johns got a layup or open 3 on every possession, especially in the 2nd half. thank god i was sick and didnt go!

 

[Eric15]

thank god i was sick and didnt go!

You still made the same number of threes as Malachi -- and on 11 less attempts.

 

[bballbeadle]

Eh, it all depends on what those wins and losses are. If we go 9-9 but beat Duke, UNC and Virginia, I think we would still be in.

HA HA HA HA HA HA!

 

[kcsu]

Unless coon dog and Malachi gunner can find the broadside of the barn we will be lucky to win 6 acc games

 

[Cusefan0307]

It's all about the number of quality wins. Yes, bad losses she's hurt us, but we just need to rack up some top 50 wins and we will be fine. We already have two in A&M and Connecticut. Beat good teams and the losses don't matter. We lost to the worst team in the ACC two years ago and we were still a three seed.

 

[jncuse]

It's all about the number of quality wins. Yes, bad losses she's hurt us, but we just need to rack up some top 50 wins and we will be fine. We already have two in A&M and Connecticut. Beat good teams and the losses don't matter. We lost to the worst team in the ACC two years ago and we were still a three seed.

Partially correct, but not 100% - the committee has viewed bad losses (sub 100) as a very important criteria. I view them sort of "net". 5 top 50 wins, 1 bad loss, is similar to 4 top 50 wins, no bad loss.

 

[jncuse]

A few perspectives one could have on the St. John's loss (re tourney) -- I lean more towards #2 at this point.

1) Damn that could be the game that costs us..
2) I am not even sure if if we are good enough to seriously get in to the bubble discussion.

I guess it's a little pessimistic. Although, I do not see this season as any crushing long term blow.


If we have a good enough ACC season, the OOC will probably be a slight net positive as I think Georgetown and Wisconsin will stay in he 50-100 range. But our play to date, taking out a weekend tourney, does not make us look like we will have that great an ACC season.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Unless coon dog and Malachi gunner can find the broadside of the barn we will be lucky to win 6 acc games

Agreed. The D will get better. Hopefully the rebounding will too. I still worry about the offense just like I have the past few years. I don't want to see any more pick 'n rolls with Coleman. If we can get G working off the ball more then that could help things. If Joseph/Howard (I believe Hop said weeks ago that he is the best penetrator on the team) can contribute more driving and getting into the gaps of the defense to set up teammates then maybe 9-9/10-8 is possible. I just really worry about the team wearing down later in the season. I mean Boeheim came out and said after that season that Ennis/Cooney played too many minutes. Develop some other guards then!

 

[jncuse]

What do the numbers say? I don't pay for KP beyond the basics, so I do not know what they project our record to.

Rpiforecast.com, uses Sagarin. This is our current projected resume, extrapolating the future based on how we have played to date:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Syracuse.html

17-14, 7-11 in the ACC
Projected RPI - 95 (based on ranking page)
2-8 vs top 50
5-11 vs top 100
4 bad losses(i.e sub 100 losses -- note Georgetown is projected #100 RPI, Wisconsin #107 RPI, St. John's #204 RPI)

I used the RPI wizard to play around with our ACC Record, and to see where it would get us. I used the most expected wins., also did not add in any ACC tourney games.

8-10 in the ACC, RPI = 78
9-9 in the ACC, RPI = 61
10-8 in the ACC, RPI = 49

Obviously mix of wins may change the resume a bit. And RPI is not the end all of resumes by any means, but an RPI in the 60's, needs a lot of good with it. I am sure 10-8 would be enough, give us a few more quality wins, and I assume Georgetown and Wisconsin will get in the top 100 RPI.

MasseyRatings, projects our ACC record at 8-10, based on how we have played to date.

Based on how we are currently playing power ratings do not see us as a 9-9 or 10-8 team. 10-8 is not an impossible target, but it will certainly not be easy.

 

[Knicks411]

Ken pom projects 8-10 in the ACC. 8.26 wins, to be exact.

 

[MikeSU02]

Ken pom projects 8-10 in the ACC. 8.26 wins, to be exact.

Barring something significant changing, I have to think that is our best case scenario.

A few wins where we look like world beaters because our threes are falling, but mostly games where we get out-rebounded and our shots aren't falling at all.

 

[PeteCalvin]

All of our losses should haunt us. We lost to teams we shouldn't have lost to. Wisconsin in the Dome? Seriously? We let the Badgers outrebound us? Georgetown on the road, under the circumstances, is somewhat understandable, but had we not laid that egg in the first half, we may have actually won that. SJU was simply inexcusable. There are no words to explain how poorly we played that game. Ever hear of a Triangle and Two? That was a game that screamed "mix up the D".

 

[CusefanATL]

assuming we're a bubble team, that loss could be the difference. st johns is god awful. if we only had 2 losses going into acc we'd be right where we need to be. i think we all would have been fine with going 2-1 in atlantis and losing 1 other game in non conference, most likely at gtown, and be 11-2 going into acc. well thats right where we'd be (using a different path) if we didnt lose to st johns.

Wisconsin aint gonna help either. Not as bad as St Johns but certainly a bad loss.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Guys... We aren't good.

You know what happens to teams that aren't good? You lose to bad teams. We won games in Atlantis shooting ungodly from three. Fool's gold.

This isn't shocking stuff. We will win some random games for sure, but right now, we are simply average, like many teams.

 

[Brooky03]

Barring something significant changing, I have to think that is our best case scenario.

A few wins where we look like world beaters because our threes are falling, but mostly games where we get out-rebounded and our shots aren't falling at all.

A) KenPom sucks at projecting records and ranking teams. Good at other stuff though.

B) 8-10 is more like the expected result than best case scenario. Best case is probably around 11-7 or 12-6. Worst case is like 6-12

 

[SoBeCuse]

All of our losses should haunt us. We lost to teams we shouldn't have lost to. Wisconsin in the Dome? Seriously? We let the Badgers outrebound us? Georgetown on the road, under the circumstances, is somewhat understandable, but had we not laid that egg in the first half, we may have actually won that. SJU was simply inexcusable. There are no words to explain how poorly we played that game. Ever hear of a Triangle and Two? That was a game that screamed "mix up the D".

Mostly agree. I still think Georgetown was a bad matchup for this particular team. Still, Wisconsin gave us so many chances to win with their turnovers, missed layups, and such. SJU has proven to be bad.

 

[Knicks411]

Guys... We aren't good.

You know what happens to teams that aren't good? You lose to bad teams. We won games in Atlantis shooting ungodly from three. Fool's gold.

This isn't shocking stuff. We will win some random games for sure, but right now, we are simply average, like many teams.

I'm kinda mad at myself for getting sucked in so hard over Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I'm kinda mad at myself for getting sucked in so hard over Thanksgiving weekend.

I hope people understand this- we lost to Wisconsin who got called for more travels than I've ever seen and missed an insane of layups. They didn't play well.

We also lost to gtown and St. Johns in a different way- we made them look like the 2015 warriors at times. Was there ever a moment in these games where you actually thought they would miss? Obviously they did a few times ...but those games completely had the feel where you would actually be shocked if they missed. That's how wide open they seemed to be. That's completely on the defense.

 

[dollarbill44]

I'm not concerned about being on the bubble right now. I'm more concerned with finishing above .500.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Guys... We aren't good.

You know what happens to teams that aren't good? You lose to bad teams. We won games in Atlantis shooting ungodly from three. Fool's gold.

This isn't shocking stuff. We will win some random games for sure, but right now, we are simply average, like many teams.

Tell that to Orangehomer or Hulk. The red flag to me concerning Atlantis was that we were absolutely on fire from 3 but won very close games outside of Charlotte.