The Blip - Last Year and This

[javadoc]

Success at Syracuse starts and ends with quarterback play. It became P’s undoing and it’s staring Dino in the face. He will die on devito’s hill and that makes me sad. Every successful quarterback that we’ve had here showed moxy and intangibles from the minute they stepped on the field. Expecting a makeover from devito in his fourth season is unrealistic and goes against history. Let’s hope shrader can win the job and be the real deal.

It's possible Devito wasn't getting super coaching, as well, to assist with his growth and how to cultivate the intangibles. Then we hire a (presumably) better QB coach and Devito gets little time with him, etc etc. I would not be surprised to see significant growth from Devito this year, now that he's had a full offseason of legit QB coaching.

 

[storange]

Win games

 

[TheCusian]

How is it a blip when we just had the same record within the last 20 years when The Coach that Shall Not be Named was running the show?

Those two teams and circumstances are light years apart and a perfect example of comparing records as kind of a bad way of doing it

 

[texascpa]

Those two teams and circumstances are light years apart and a perfect example of comparing records as kind of a bad way of doing it

How is it light years apart?

 

[orangenauburn]

Success at Syracuse starts and ends with quarterback play. It became P’s undoing and it’s staring Dino in the face. He will die on devito’s hill and that makes me sad. Every successful quarterback that we’ve had here showed moxy and intangibles from the minute they stepped on the field. Expecting a makeover from devito in his fourth season is unrealistic and goes against history. Let’s hope shrader can win the job and be the real deal.

I think Shrader is the real deal

Would be ironic if Babers built off Shafer's QB and then the next coach built off Babers transfer Shrader.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Agree. Last year was pretty consistent. Dino has won 2 ACC games in every year except 2018 (6 wins) and last year (1 win).

If last year was a normal year instead of us playing @UNC and @ND as ACC games, good chance we get the same 2 wins. And 2 weaker OOC wins.

2018 just shows that the stars need to align for a program like ours.

I'm not expecting 2021 to be 2018. But we need to start winning at least 4 ACC games. That would probably accompany 3 OOC wins if scheduled for success. That's just to be an average to good program that teams have to take seriously, instead of having a bottom feeder reputation.

Taking out 2018 the other 4 years have seen us go:

3-0 vs FCS
0-2 vs good G5s
4-1 vs other G5s
7-30 vs P5 (2-7 each year 2016, 2017, 2019)

Dino hasn't beaten 3 P5 teams in 4 of his 5 seasons. So is it realistic to expect it this year? Which means we are looking at 2-7 in those games. We should beat our FCS team, getting us to 3-7. Ohio fits into that other G5 category so we should win that, now 4-7. That leaves Liberty. If they are as good as last year then we are looking at 4-8. If they aren't as good then 5-7.

For us to get to 6 Ws Dino has to break the pattern we have seen in all but one season here. Can he go 3-6 (or better if we lose to Liberty) vs the P5 when he has failed to do so in 4 out of 5 seasons thus far?

In fairness our OOC P5 game is the least talented team we have played to date. But also remember we lost to a ND team that went 1-7 vs P5 teams not named SU (down 50-27 at one point) and to MD who went 1-8 vs P5 teams not named SU (lost 63-20) and coached by Mike Locksley.

 

[Chip]

Taking out 2018 the other 4 years have seen us go:

3-0 vs FCS
0-2 vs good G5s
4-1 vs other G5s
7-30 vs P5 (2-7 each year 2016, 2017, 2019)

Dino hasn't beaten 3 P5 teams in 4 of his 5 seasons. So is it realistic to expect it this year? Which means we are looking at 2-7 in those games. We should beat our FCS team, getting us to 3-7. Ohio fits into that other G5 category so we should win that, now 4-7. That leaves Liberty. If they are as good as last year then we are looking at 4-8. If they aren't as good then 5-7.

For us to get to 6 Ws Dino has to break the pattern we have seen in all but one season here. Can he go 3-6 (or better if we lose to Liberty) vs the P5 when he has failed to do so in 4 out of 5 seasons thus far?

In fairness our OOC P5 game is the least talented team we have played to date. But also remember we lost to a ND team that went 1-7 vs P5 teams not named SU (down 50-27 at one point) and to MD who went 1-8 vs P5 teams not named SU (lost 63-20) and coached by Mike Locksley.

It's hard to expect anything above 2 ACC wins, but at some point we have to start a new floor, right? We get Pitt, BC, Wake all in the Dome, have to start winning those games.

If we beat Rutgers, I promise not to talk about that Maryland debacle anymore. If Rutgers beats us, I will assume that it's the new normal for us. Bad P5 teams are still better than us.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I mean, last year counts. It was absolutely an extremely tough and weird season for us, but it still counts in the books. But the staff did the best thing they could do in playing the guys available, focus on developing the young classmen, and plan out changes for this season.

If the team can get to a bowl this year, the roster set up looks very promising for 2022.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It's hard to expect anything above 2 ACC wins, but at some point we have to start a new floor, right? We get Pitt, BC, Wake all in the Dome, have to start winning those games.

If we beat Rutgers, I promise not to talk about that Maryland debacle anymore. If Rutgers beats us, I will assume that it's the new normal for us. Bad P5 teams are still better than us.

I think Rutgers might be a difficult game. Not because of talent but because of style and when we play them. Schiano will have the team fired up for it, while our players and coaches will likely see it as another game. Their O stinks but they will have trick plays ready. On D they will likely use the Pitt gameplan, which we have struggled against every year. Will our OL be ready in Week 2? I would have a lot more confidence in them mid year. Then you have STs which under Schiano are usually strong. The game IMO likely will come down to our STs.

I think there is an 80% chance we beat Rutgers if we play them outside of the 1st quarter of the season. Playing them week 2 makes it 50-50. I think it will be the 3rd most difficult game for our O matchup wise this year.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I think Rutgers might be a difficult game. Not because of talent but because of style and when we play them. Schiano will have the team fired up for it, while our players and coaches will likely see it as another game. Their O stinks but they will have trick plays ready. On D they will likely use the Pitt gameplan, which we have struggled against every year. Will our OL be ready in Week 2? I would have a lot more confidence in them mid year. Then you have STs which under Schiano are usually strong. The game IMO likely will come down to our STs.

I think there is an 80% chance we beat Rutgers if we play them outside of the 1st quarter of the season. Playing them week 2 makes it 50-50. I think it will be the 3rd most difficult game for our O matchup wise this year.

The Dome will be fired up for the Rutgers game, it's the first game fans will be in attendance in a long time. Def will need a good start to keep the energy level up and get Rutgers into obvious passing situations.

 

[omg_cuse_rules]

If 2021 is another losing season, is it really a blip? Dino has had 1 winning season

 

[Chip]

while our players and coaches will likely see it as another game.

This part I don't agree with. First game in the Dome, and Dino will be stressing recruiting importance. We have some Jersey guys in key roles too, who I'm guessing have some motivation (TD, Taj, Duce, Pena, Tisdale).

I think we saw Maryland as another game 2 years ago, with Clemson looming.

 

[javadoc]

If 2021 is another losing season, is it really a blip? Dino has had 1 winning season

Reel your mind back. It's going to a bad place, needlessly.

 

[SUskibum]

This part I don't agree with. First game in the Dome, and Dino will be stressing recruiting importance. We have some Jersey guys in key roles too, who I'm guessing have some motivation (TD, Taj, Duce, Pena, Tisdale).

I think we saw Maryland as another game 2 years ago, with Clemson looming.

Yup, DFB already started calling them ‘that team I won’t name’ when talking about who is going to be in the Dome for the first Dome experience for the 1st and 2nd year players

He knows it matters and we have enough NY/NJ/East PA/Baltimore kids that they know too (TFD, Harris, Duce, Tucker, KJ, Lutz, etc)

 

[javadoc]

If you believe as I do that last year was a blip, an anomaly in the program's trajectory, then the interesting question is "where do we expect to be this year, with an eye toward what last year would have been without the once-in-a-career mountain of calamities?"

I expect this year to be more like the blip from MCU - the sudden reappearance of things thought lost.

Folks are going to say, wow, what a turnaround, they went from one win to that? It might seem surprising, if you looked only at the records, and couldn't see the program for the team.

7+ wins this year. And a sight not seen in a while - RB's running to daylight.

Bump. Now that Shrader is starting, I think we can still hit the mark. And note the bolded part. I'll include QB's in that feature, and I still expect to see Adams doing so by season's end.

 

[David321]

What’s crazy is we’re better than our record suggests, we could easily be 5-0 right now.

 

[JRHEETER]

What’s crazy is we’re better than our record suggests, we could easily be 5-0 right now.

I actually don’t like to think about it because it literally burns my soul that we could be 5-0.

However, let’s get to a bowl game this season and go for the Natty next year

 

[orangecuse]

Was it a blip though? 2018 is really the blip. 2020 was right in line with the other seasons had we played OOC cupcakes.


2016 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2017 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2019 3-1 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2020 0-1 OOC and 1-9 ACC

Had we played only 8 ACC games and gone 1-7 it is one game worse. Had we played an FCS and a MAC team we have 2 OOC Ws. Look at our original schedule. Wouldn't we have been right in line with the other seasons?

at BC - we played them close without TD but it was at home. BC had a new HC but beat Duke easily to open last year. (0-0-1)

at Rutgers - they opened last season with a W but it also was the 3rd week of October. (0-0-2)

Colgate - we are winning that. (1-0-2)

at Western Michigan - we are winning that. (2-0-2)

Louisville - Would TD still be healthy and playing? I think being at home makes a difference but we were so bad that game we likely still lose. (2-1-2)

Liberty - we lose still. (2-2-2)

At Clemson - we still lose. (2-3-2)

GA Tech - we beat them pretty easily but it was with TD. Would he be playing? (2-3-3)

at Wake - we still lose. (2-4-3)

NC State - is TD playing? If so then we likely win. We were up 29-20 late 3rd Q without him. That saves us the downing it on 4th down play. (2-4-4)

FSU - they were bad last year. Although they beat up Duke to end the season. I think we most likely win this even without TD. (2-4-5)

at Pitt - we still lose this. (2-5-5)

If we assume that TD still gets hurt then we lose to NC State. (2-6-4). If we assume we can't handle the Rutgers blitz with that make shift OL then we lose that game. (2-7-3). I still think we beat GA Tech even without TD. We turned them over and ran the ball well. (3-7-2). I think we beat FSU too, but let's be conservative and say we lose. (3-8-1).

So if we beat BC on the road with TD to open the season, 2020 looks exactly like 2016 and 2017. We start off decent (3-1), we go 2-2 OOC, our QB gets hurt, we end 2-6 in the ACC and 4-8 overall. That is a copy of 2016 and 2017.

Taking out 2018 the other 4 years have seen us go:

3-0 vs FCS
0-2 vs good G5s
4-1 vs other G5s
7-30 vs P5 (2-7 each year 2016, 2017, 2019)

Dino hasn't beaten 3 P5 teams in 4 of his 5 seasons. So is it realistic to expect it this year? Which means we are looking at 2-7 in those games. We should beat our FCS team, getting us to 3-7. Ohio fits into that other G5 category so we should win that, now 4-7. That leaves Liberty. If they are as good as last year then we are looking at 4-8. If they aren't as good then 5-7.

For us to get to 6 Ws Dino has to break the pattern we have seen in all but one season here. Can he go 3-6 (or better if we lose to Liberty) vs the P5 when he has failed to do so in 4 out of 5 seasons thus far?

In fairness our OOC P5 game is the least talented team we have played to date. But also remember we lost to a ND team that went 1-7 vs P5 teams not named SU (down 50-27 at one point) and to MD who went 1-8 vs P5 teams not named SU (lost 63-20) and coached by Mike Locksley.

Objectively, these two posts are spot on. And, IMO, based upon Dino's overall track record here as you've laid out, I also think your 4-8 and/or 5-7 sentiment is quite likely, even perhaps foreseeable.

It's interesting how some can easily dismiss the 1-10, but not the 10-3. Let's say both were blips or statistical outliers, the other remaining are 4-8, 4-8 & 5-7. Until proven otherwise, that may indeed be the statistical 'probability' again this year.

 

[kcsu]

I dont think Dino is much more than a 6 7 win coach at SU. Whites D is a 7-9.
Hopefully Gilbert is given full reign and has the Chops. Let Dino be the face of the program .

 

[kingtidge]

I actually don’t like to think about it because it literally burns my soul that we could be 5-0.

However, let’s get to a bowl game this season and go for the Natty next year

Glass half full.

The easy part of our schedule is over and we may struggle to win another game.