The Committee is Done for the Year

[jncuse]

Well, I did what I was not going to do. Played around with the brackets after listening to the chair at 12:00 and seeing the ACC results.

He seems to be really playing up the eye test... teams that did well this weekend will do well:
Iowa St as a 2, Louisville state as a 2.
I also believe that the 3rd team he was referencing for the #1 was Virginia.

So here we go:

If Michigan Wins

East
#1 Michigan
#2 Virginia
#3 Villanova
#4 UCLA

West
#1 Arizona
#2 Wisconsin
#3 Syracuse
#4 San Diego St

Midwest
#1 Wichita St
#2 Louisville
#3 Kansas
#4 Michigan St

South
#1 Florida
#2 Iowa St
#3 Duke
#4 Creighton


If Michigan St Wins

East
#1 Virginia
#2 Michigan
#3 Villanova
#4 UCLA

West
#1 Arizona
#2 Wisconsin
#3 Kansas
#4 San Diego St

Midwest
#1 Wichita St
#2 Louisville
#3 Michigan St
#4 Syracuse

South
#1 Florida
#2 Iowa St
#3 Duke
#4 Creighton

 

[Chris02M]

I have also reworked mine after the Virginia- Duke game but I'm keeping Michigan as last 1 regardless since I can't justify moving Virginia up 6 spots for beating Duke

 

[jncuse]

So I spent a good amount of the day re-analyzing things -- I said I wouldn't but I knew I would. I'm a knob.

Here is my final bracket

SOUTH - Memphis

Orlando

1 Florida
16 Mount St Mary's / Coastal Carolina

8 Memphis
9 Pitt

San Antonio

4 Creighton
13 Tulsa

5 UNC
12 Stephen Austin

St Louis

2 Iowa St
15 Milwaukee

7 Kentucky
10 Arizona St

Orlando

3 Duke
14 Mercer

6 VCU
11 SMU / Iowa


WEST - Anaheim

San Diego

1 Arizona
16 Albany

8 George Washington
9 Gonzaga

Spokane

4 San Diego St
13 Deleware

5 Cincinnati
12 Harvard

Milwaukee

2 Wisconsin
15 Weber St

7 St Louis
10 Oklahoma St

San Antonio

3 Kansas
14 Louisiana Lafayette

6 New Mexico
11 Nebraska


MIDWEST - Indianapolis

St Louis

1 Wichita St
16 Cal Poly / Texas Southern

8 Kansas St
9 Colorado

Spokane

4 Syracuse
13 Manhattan

5 Uconn
12 North Dakota St

Raleigh

2 Louisville
15 American

7 Baylor
10 Providence

Buffalo

3 Michigan St
14 Western Michigan

6 Umass
11 BYU / Tennessee

EAST - New York

Raleigh

1 Virginia
16 Wofford

8 Oregon
9 St Joes

San Diego

4 UCLA
13 New Mexico St

5 Ohio St
12 Xavier

Milwaukee

2 Michigan
15 Eastern Kentucky

7 Texas
10 Stanford

Buffalo

3 Villanova
14 NC Central

6 Oklahoma
11 Dayton

 

[jncuse]

Well my final / final bracket posted above had a Paymon Score of 345 (some scoring system they use for Brackets). Highest ever was 350. 345 is higher than anyone scored last year... but I think quite a few scores will be higher this year (and many people will surpass my 345) The committee seemed to go by the book and did nothing really unusual in the middle or bottom of the bracket. Many will get alot right.

I had the right seed for 40 teams
I was within 1 line for 24 teams
I was off by 2 lines for 3 teams (Louisville - had as a 2 instead of a 4, UConn had as a 5 instead of a 7, and St Louis had as a 7 instead of a 5).
I missed one team - NC St

Although I suspected SMU may be dropped I had no read on who may get in, so I kept SMU on my bracket. Certainly did not expect it to be NC St.

71 people out of 80 on the final bracket had SMU in. One person had NC St getting in. 1 out of 80!

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Well done, I have never seen someone so accurately predict the field before.

Not that it matters but did you beat Lunardi?

 

[jncuse]

My Score of 345 would have been #11 out of 121 brackets on the matrix. Of course its totally unoffical as it was not submitted. It's my 5:41 post above. My first bracket (late Saturday) would have come in at 342 (or 15th)

Does not make me an expert by any means (look at my score from 2010 which was about 11th from the bottom instead). By far the best I ever did. Much luck is involved.

Lunardi was 339 which was about 30th
Palm was 323 which was about 85th

The one advantage I have over Palm and Lunardi, is I am at full liberty to change my picks based on what the committee says on the last day (or change my views during the last week if I want). Although I only changed the top 4 lines on Sunday. I don't need to be totally consistent.

Jerry Palm, cannot go make changes based on what the commitee says at 12:00. It would make him look silly to say he changed it at the last minute -- because people will think its his job to already know that. In order to maintain his status, he needs to stay consistent with his thought processes the entire year.

I made a few changes from my original bracket posted late Saturday. All the changes were in the top 4 lines, based on the swerve the commitee chair threw us,

I moved Virginia into the #1, and Michigan down to #2, after hearing the commitee say there was a 3rd team in play for a #1, and the eye test played a role. I also moved UCLA up from 5 to 4, since it seemed good from "eye test" based on what they did this weekend. These changes helped me by 6 points. I switched Nova and Louisville between 2 and 3 because of the eye test, and that cost me 3 points.

I actually tend to do better (or as good) on the top 4 lines, but I was off a line on quite a few (Villanova, Iowa St, Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan St, Creighton, Louisville). What boosted my score was the ranking of teams below seed line #10 which is really pretty useless, nobody cares about (even myself during the season), and to a degree somewhat random. And I was on (or only off by one line) for most of the field in the middle of the bracket (5-10). That is where I tend to be off 2 or 3 lines sometimes.

I think the committee really followed a numbers based approach on the middle lines focusing on number of top 50 wins %.

I missed bad on two AAC teams - Louisville and UConn. But many people missed UConn by 2 lines as well. That 7 seed was the strangest in the bracket from my perspective.

My formula for seeding the end of field teams. I know that they use power rankings for those teams because they are so hard to seed otherwise, and RPI does not tell the accurate story.
(RPI Ranking + KenPom Ranking) / 2

Every team was right after #12, except for Weber St and Wofford.. which was close on the 15/16 line.