The Downside (Baylor)

[SWC75]

- Amid the glow of success we still have to realize that all teams this time of year are a work in progress. It’s wonderful to dream of future success but there are still things to work on. The biggest thing that still worries me is defense. I realize that the Lahaina Civic Center is very shooter friendly but the numbers we are giving are alarming. Of all basketball statistics, the one that most closely correlates to winning is two point field goal percentage, offensive and defensive. We normally do very well in this static, (which is why we win a lot), and are off the charts at this point in the year due to the weakness of much of our early competition. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .487-.513 = -26. In the four games of this tournament, (including St. Francis), the margin is .475-.545 = 70. We were out-shot from two point range in eveyr game of the tournament. We’ve managed to win because, until the Baylor game, we were rebounding well, or, at least holding our own and we have a big turnover margin, primarily because we aren’t turning the ball over ourselves. We’ve also shot well in the tournament and been lights out from the foul line. But we can’t allow the opposition to keep shooting as they have against us and expect to have the sort of great season we are dreaming of.


- Rakeem Christmas played well in the final but DaJuan Coleman and Baye Moussa Keita, in 19 combined minutes, totaled 2 points, 2 rebounds and 1 block. That’s nothing, guys. 4 on 5. when you’re in there. All these guys are experienced players now and they should be giving us something every game.


- According to the box score, Tyler Ennis played “40-“ minutes. I do recall him being out for spell. I guess it wasn’t very long. This is what we were afraid off. He can’t play 40 minutes for 40 games. Michael Gbinijie was playing well in the Dome but gave us nothing in Maui35 minutes. 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers. I just don’t know what to make of him right now.


- We beat some pretty good teams but none that will play past the Sweet 16. If we want to do that we’ll have to get better than this. Maybe a lot better.

 

[IthacaMatt]

- Amid the glow of success we still have to realize that all teams this time of year are a work in progress. It’s wonderful to dream of future success but there are still things to work on. The biggest thing that still worries me is defense. I realize that the Lahaina Civic Center is very shooter friendly but the numbers we are giving are alarming. Of all basketball statistics, the one that most closely correlates to winning is two point field goal percentage, offensive and defensive. We normally do very well in this static, (which is why we win a lot), and are off the charts at this point in the year due to the weakness of much of our early competition. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .487-.513 = -26. In the four games of this tournament, (including St. Francis), the margin is .475-.545 = 70. We were out-shot from two point range in eveyr game of the tournament. We’ve managed to win because, until the Baylor game, we were rebounding well, or, at least holding our own and we have a big turnover margin, primarily because we aren’t turning the ball over ourselves. We’ve also shot well in the tournament and been lights out from the foul line. But we can’t allow the opposition to keep shooting as they have against us and expect to have the sort of great season we are dreaming of.


- Rakeem Christmas played well in the final but DaJuan Coleman and Baye Moussa Keita, in 19 combined minutes, totaled 2 points, 2 rebounds and 1 block. That’s nothing, guys. 4 on 5. when you’re in there. All these guys are experienced players now and they should be giving us something every game.


- According to the box score, Tyler Ennis played “40-“ minutes. I do recall him being out for spell. I guess it wasn’t very long. This is what we were afraid off. He can’t play 40 minutes for 40 games. Michael Gbinijie was playing well in the Dome but gave us nothing in Maui35 minutes. 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers. I just don’t know what to make of him right now.


- We beat some pretty good teams but none that will play past the Sweet 16. If we want to do that we’ll have to get better than this. Maybe a lot better.

The defense is a lot worse so far for two main reasons - adjustment to the new rules, where every contact is being called a foul, whether it is or not; and the second point is that the guards (in part because of the rules) aren't able to cut off penetration, which allows the other team to get inside the zone too easily and put our centers under pressure. Our centers have been fouling a lot so far, because the guards aren't cutting dribblers off from getting inside. I also think Ennis is being a little casual closing out on shooters so far.

 

[Jack Hall]

- Amid the glow of success we still have to realize that all teams this time of year are a work in progress. It’s wonderful to dream of future success but there are still things to work on. The biggest thing that still worries me is defense. I realize that the Lahaina Civic Center is very shooter friendly but the numbers we are giving are alarming. Of all basketball statistics, the one that most closely correlates to winning is two point field goal percentage, offensive and defensive. We normally do very well in this static, (which is why we win a lot), and are off the charts at this point in the year due to the weakness of much of our early competition. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .487-.513 = -26. In the four games of this tournament, (including St. Francis), the margin is .475-.545 = 70. We were out-shot from two point range in eveyr game of the tournament. We’ve managed to win because, until the Baylor game, we were rebounding well, or, at least holding our own and we have a big turnover margin, primarily because we aren’t turning the ball over ourselves. We’ve also shot well in the tournament and been lights out from the foul line. But we can’t allow the opposition to keep shooting as they have against us and expect to have the sort of great season we are dreaming of.


- Rakeem Christmas played well in the final but DaJuan Coleman and Baye Moussa Keita, in 19 combined minutes, totaled 2 points, 2 rebounds and 1 block. That’s nothing, guys. 4 on 5. when you’re in there. All these guys are experienced players now and they should be giving us something every game.


- According to the box score, Tyler Ennis played “40-“ minutes. I do recall him being out for spell. I guess it wasn’t very long. This is what we were afraid off. He can’t play 40 minutes for 40 games. Michael Gbinijie was playing well in the Dome but gave us nothing in Maui35 minutes. 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers. I just don’t know what to make of him right now.


- We beat some pretty good teams but none that will play past the Sweet 16. If we want to do that we’ll have to get better than this. Maybe a lot better.

Your numbers in the first paragraph show no correlation to how good those respective teams were. Ie the 2011 team had the best number and they were hands down the worst team of the four...

 

[SWC75]

Your numbers in the first paragraph show no correlation to how good those respective teams were. Ie the 2011 team had the best number and they were hands down the worst team of the four...

But they were a very good team as well, going 27-8 and being ranked in the top 10 most of the season.

I did a study a few years ago of 25 years of SU stats taken from the SU Athletics website. I ranked the teams in terms of winning percentage and then every stat in the box score and every combination of stats I could think of and then checked to see how the various rankings correlated to winning percentage and two point field goal percentage was the easy winner. Rebounding was the only thing close.

Here are the results of that study. The numbers are the average number of places in the rankings that each team differed from their place in the winning percentage ranking. If a team was #10 in rebounding and #6 in winning percentage, that's a difference of four. If a team was #7 in percentage of baskets assisted and #12 in winning percentage that's a difference of 5. If you add up all the differences for all 25 teams in a category and divide by 25, you get the average. Two point field goal percentage was an average of 4.25 places off from the winning percentage rankings, the closest correlation.

- 2 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 4.25

- Rebounding had an average differential ranking of 4.70

- Percentage of field goal attempts from three point range had an average differential ranking of 4.98

- Turnovers had an average differential ranking of 5.41

- Steals had an average differential ranking of 5.93

- 3 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 6.14

- Blocks had an average differential ranking of 6.84

- Percentage of made field goals that were assisted had an average differential ranking of 8.27

 

[OttoMets]

Your numbers in the first paragraph show no correlation to how good those respective teams were. Ie the 2011 team had the best number and they were hands down the worst team of the four...

That's debatable.

Last season's team ran off 3.5 good games in New York and four good games in the tournament, but was probably the weakest team of the last four.

 

[Jack Hall]

But they were a very good team as well, going 27-8 and being ranked in the top 10 most of the season.

I did a study a few years ago of 25 years of SU stats taken from the SU Athletics website. I ranked the teams in terms of winning percentage and then every stat in the box score and every combination of stats I could think of and then checked to see how the various rankings correlated to winning percentage and two point field goal percentage was the easy winner. Rebounding was the only thing close.

Here are the results of that study. The numbers are the average number of places in the rankings that each team differed from their place in the winning percentage ranking. If a team was #10 in rebounding and #6 in winning percentage, that's a difference of four. If a team was #7 in percentage of baskets assisted and #12 in winning percentage that's a difference of 5. If you add up all the differences for all 25 teams in a category and divide by 25, you get the average. Two point field goal percentage was an average of 4.25 places off from the winning percentage rankings, the closest correlation.

- 2 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 4.25

- Rebounding had an average differential ranking of 4.70

- Percentage of field goal attempts from three point range had an average differential ranking of 4.98

- Turnovers had an average differential ranking of 5.41

- Steals had an average differential ranking of 5.93

- 3 point field goal percentage had an average differential ranking of 6.14

- Blocks had an average differential ranking of 6.84

- Percentage of made field goals that were assisted had an average differential ranking of 8.27

Interesting, the first three stats I look at in a boxscore are 2 pt shooting percentage (both teams), rebounding (both teams) and assists to turnovers (winning team)...but that's just me......

 

[Jack Hall]

That's debatable.

Last season's team ran off 3.5 good games in New York and four good games in the tournament, but was probably the weakest team of the last four.

Not when you look at players drafted after the season was over...

 

[Jack Hall]

Interesting, the first three stats I look at in a boxscore are 2 pt shooting percentage (both teams), rebounding (both teams) and assists to turnovers (winning team)...but that's just me......

Sorry not 2 pt shooting percentage but overall shooting percentage I meant to say

 

[Jack Hall]

That's debatable.

Last season's team ran off 3.5 good games in New York and four good games in the tournament, but was probably the weakest team of the last four.

Not to mention both teams finished same in BE reg season but last yrs team went much farther in both tourneys, it's not even close IMO based on NCAA tourney results...

 

[SoBeCuse]

These are issues which will get fixed. Well, maybe not defensive rebounding. The effort is mostly there, I think. Grant is logging more minutes now and will get better defensively with time. He needs to close out and cover those corner threes better. The guards will improve, too.

 

[OttoMets]

Not to mention both teams finished same in BE reg season but last yrs team went much farther in both tourneys, it's not even close IMO based on NCAA tourney results...

No, that's clear.

But we're talking about which team was better, not which team had the player drafted highest or which team advanced furthest in the tournament.

If the first criterion mattered, Kentucky was a better team than Syracuse last year. If the second were determinative, last year's SU team was better than the 2012 and 1989 teams (among others). And we know that that's not the case.

 

[Jack Hall]

No, that's clear.

But we're talking about which team was better, not which team had the player drafted highest or which team advanced furthest in the tournament.

If the first criterion mattered, Kentucky was a better team than Syracuse last year. If the second were determinative, last year's SU team was better than the 2012 and 1989 teams (among others). And we know that that's not the case.

Based on what criteria was the 11 team better than the 13 team? There is none. Not based on eye test , not based on big east reg season and certainly not based on either tourneys or the draft. We agree to disagree and not sure what you're looking at. I mean seriously one team lost to Marquette in second round and the other team beat Marquette in elite eight.....

 

[Jack Hall]

No, that's clear.

But we're talking about which team was better, not which team had the player drafted highest or which team advanced furthest in the tournament.

If the first criterion mattered, Kentucky was a better team than Syracuse last year. If the second were determinative, last year's SU team was better than the 2012 and 1989 teams (among others). And we know that that's not the case.

And was the 13 team better than the 12 team!? Depends on whether with or without Fab. Without Fab no the 12 team was not better than the 13 team and the ncaas bear that out...

 

[OttoMets]

Based on what criteria was the 11 team better than the 13 team? There is none. Not based on eye test , not based on big east reg season and certainly not based on either tourneys or the draft. We agree to disagree and not sure what you're looking at. I mean seriously one team lost to Marquette in second round and the other team beat Marquette in elite eight.....

The draft doesn't matter.

The eye test matters. The regular season -- the entire regular season -- matters.

And just because we played a school with the same name in two different tournaments doesn't mean that that was a common opponent that's any sort of basis for comparison.

 

[SWC75]

And was the 13 team better than the 12 team!? Depends on whether with or without Fab. Without Fab no the 12 team was not better than the 13 team and the ncaas bear that out...

The correlation between winning and any one stat is not exact. It's just that the correlation between two point field goal percentage and winning is the strongest. I think that means you want to do well in that stat. The 2009-13 teams were all strong in that stat. and all had good records, (30-5, 27-8, 34-3 and 30-10). This team does not have a good record in two point field goal percentage, especially on defense. If it wants a record like the ones we've had in recent years, we need to improve dramatically in that key stat. Arguing about how to rank the 2009-2013 teams is beside the point.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Jumanji had a sweet block

 

[Jack Hall]

The correlation between winning and any one stat is not exact. It's just that the correlation between two point field goal percentage and winning is the strongest. I think that means you want to do well in that's stat. The 2009-13 teams were all strong in that stat. and all had good records, (30-5, 27-8, 34-3 and 30-10). This team does not have a good record in two point field goal percentage, especially on defense. If it wants a record like the ones we've had in recent years, we need to improve dramatically in that key stat. Arguing about how to rank the 2009-2013 teams is beside the point.

Sorry my post was in response to another poster who compared last yrs team to the 89 and 12 team...

 

[IthacaMatt]

These are issues which will get fixed. Well, maybe not defensive rebounding. The effort is mostly there, I think. Grant is logging more minutes now and will get better defensively with time. He needs to close out and cover those corner threes better. The guards will improve, too.

We need to get over this meme - our defensive rebounding is much better than it used to be these past several years. Last year we finished something like 30th in rebounding in the nation, IIRC, which equates to top 10% in the country. Until Maui, we were 20th in the country. Now, granted the competition was not as stiff, but we are not going to be an awful rebounding team this year. We've got too much size.