The four best teams in the country

[MikeSU02]

Per 538 chances of making it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/college-football-playoff-update-does-ohio-state-have-a-shot/

Alabama and Oregon Are 100%

TCU about 91% chance.

FSU about 68% chance.

OSU about 40%chance.

Baylor about 1% chance.

 

[CousCuse]

B1G bosses are reaping what they sowed. Total meltdown will ensue , which is what they deserve for their heavy handed tactics.

 

[Alsacs]

If FSU isn't 100% CFB is done. The Big Ten is not great and Florida state beat 3 P5 OOC opponents while Ohio state lost to the 10th best ACC team at HOME. If the eye test matters that much college football becomes about running the score up each week from now on.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Next week after tcu plays Baylor, the committee will have a tough call to make.

Wait, u say they aren't playing? It over? No champ game for them???

Wow, ok.

Sorry, enjoy the liberty bowl.

I'm going to take my bows now as its an NFL Sunday and I don't have time for you kids anymore...but this was easy. I called this in August. Pounded it home all year, stood on a table and screamed it this week...and last night watched it come to fruition. Today at 12:30 you will see it unveiled and then maybe you idiots will start listening. Well, lets be real, I'm pretty sure most of you can't chew gum and walk at the same time, so listening will never happen.

The bevo is getting what it deserves...nothing.

But anywho, the only thing I'm curious about is if Ohio St jumps to 3 and the Rose gets what it wants. And likely the Sugar and all 4 schools too.

I expect it to happen.

tcu will be 6, as well ladies.

The wind is blowing in cincy, but the candles aren't being blown out..

 

[MikeSU02]

If FSU isn't 100% CFB is done. The Big Ten is not great and Florida state beat 3 P5 OOC opponents while Ohio state lost to the 10th best ACC team at HOME. If the eye test matters that much college football becomes about running the score up each week from now on.

They were seeded 4th as of last week, in what capacity would you think they are 100% all of a sudden?

I agree they are better than OSU bc that VT loss is horrendous, but this isn't the NFL where a fifty point win is the same as a three point win.

I think you're right in that you'll see teams running up scores from now on.

 

[Alsacs]

They were seeded 4th as of last week, in what capacity would you think they are 100% all of a sudden?

I agree they are better than OSU bc that VT loss is horrendous, but this isn't the NFL where a fifty point win is the same as a three point win.

I think you're right in that you'll see teams running up scores from now on.

FSU goes up to 3 because GT on a neutral field is better than any win TCU has thus FSU becomes 100%. TCU was rewarded for destroying Texas in Austin. Iowa State moves them done because of the FSU win.

 

[Quazzum69]

Ohio State needs to when it comes to the style point argument. In 2002 when they went undefeated in the regular season and played Miami in the Fiesta Bowl they struggled to beat pretty much every Big Ten team but because they were undefeated that is all that mattered.

Isn't this kind of similar to FSU this year? They haven't looked dominant (not even against Syracuse) at all this season despite being in one of the weakest P5 conferences. They deserve to go, but should have to play either Oregon or Alabama first and prove themselves.

Florida state beat 3 P5 OOC opponents

Beating P5 opponents should not matter - playing Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Wake Forest (or other comparable "P5" teams) is not the same as playing Marshall, Boise State and Colorado State (or other non "P5" teams that are really good).

The whole "P5" argument is silly considering there are some awful P5 teams out there. The relative strength of the team should be considered, not what conference they are in.

 

[anglerman]

And I think that's ultimately what's going to happen.

Only 2 teams are sleeping comfortably tonight, Alabama and Oregon. The rest are sweating it out. Even FSU because of the BS 4 ranking this week.

Ridiculous statement! There is 0 chance FSU gets left out 0! What could you possibly be thinking???

 

[Stern]

The Big 12 didn't have a conference championship game. And now they suffer the consequences for it!

 

[Stern]

This constant knocking of FSU is beyond silly. They are the one team that didn't lose. Only in college football are "close" wins worse than actually losing!!!

 

[SmilinBob]

Isn't this kind of similar to FSU this year? They haven't looked dominant (not even against Syracuse) at all this season despite being in one of the weakest P5 conferences. They deserve to go, but should have to play either Oregon or Alabama first and prove themselves.



Beating P5 opponents should not matter - playing Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Wake Forest (or other comparable "P5" teams) is not the same as playing Marshall, Boise State and Colorado State (or other non "P5" teams that are really good).

The whole "P5" argument is silly considering there are some awful P5 teams out there. The relative strength of the team should be considered, not what conference they are in.

FSU scheduled Oklahoma St, ND and Florida not the weakest of P5's so let's go all out hyperbole here. I don't see any of the schools that are under consideration having played Marshall, Boise St or Colorado St either. I get your point but FSU did all it could to build up a strong SOS.

 

[anglerman]

In my eyes, FSU should be number one. They are the only undefeated P5 team. They win. If FSU does not make the playoffs then there is something seriously wrong with the people in charge of evaluating teams.

Alabama is my number two. They won the SEC and that in itself will get them in because of the SEC's perception.

Number three would be Oregon. They had a loss to Arizona but got a shot at redemption and destroyed the team.

Number four is obviously the debatable spot. I personally would have Baylor but it's not like I am too confident in that option. Their out of conference schedule was laughable but they are the only other team in the conversation to beat another team that's in the conversation for the last spot.

TCU getting in over Baylor, in my opinion, makes little sense. They lost head-to-head, that's all there is too it. They have the same record as Baylor but lost to them.

If Ohio State got the nod over Baylor, for the number four spot, I would understand. I have them just slightly below Baylor because of their bad loss in week one to VPI. They have responded really strong since which is why I wouldn't be bothered and they dismantled Wisconsin in the B10 title game. The Big12's lack of a title game is a reason why I'd accept the OSU nod over Baylor.

As for the supposed bad loss. Do the 11 consecutive wins and conference championship count for anything?

 

[Crusty]

Best four teams on what day and against which opponents? We all know transitive properties do not apply to sports. Match ups matter, venues matter, weather conditions matter, point in season matters, injuries matter - and most importantly of all, these are college kids whose emotions and focus can be up or down.

The best we can do is going to be hated by several teams.Down the road the P5 will have obtained such an advantage in talent, coaching, facilities etc. that we will probably have system of conference champions and one at-large team. Then the real complaining will begin.

Cynical? Yeah, but with the money at stake I just don't see how the P5 doesn't rule the whole process.

 

[SmilinBob]

As for the supposed bad loss. Do the 11 consecutive wins and conference championship count for anything?

It would count for more if that same conference had good OOC wins. OSU lost to VT. Wisconsin lost to LSU and Michigan St lost to Oregon. I'm asking because I don't know, what was the Big 10's best win?

 

[Chip]

Ridiculous statement! There is 0 chance FSU gets left out 0! What could you possibly be thinking???

I'm thinking the committee has dropped them from 1 to 3 to 4, even putting TCU in front of them. And now another team behind them had what will be considered a much more impressive win. So I wouldn't be sleeping comfortably, that's all I'm saying.

I also said in this thread that if they were left out, then the system is a sham and would be completely reconstructed after just 1 year.

 

[TheCusian]

Next week after tcu plays Baylor, the committee will have a tough call to make. Wait, u say they aren't playing? It over? No champ game for them??? Wow, ok. Sorry, enjoy the liberty bowl. I'm going to take my bows now as its an NFL Sunday and I don't have time for you kids anymore...but this was easy. I called this in August. Pounded it home all year, stood on a table and screamed it this week...and last night watched it come to fruition. Today at 12:30 you will see it unveiled and then maybe you idiots will start listening. Well, lets be real, I'm pretty sure most of you can't chew gum and walk at the same time, so listening will never happen. The bevo is getting what it deserves...nothing. But anywho, the only thing I'm curious about is if Ohio St jumps to 3 and the Rose gets what it wants. And likely the Sugar and all 4 schools too. I expect it to happen. tcu will be 6, as well ladies. The wind is blowing in cincy, but the candles aren't being blown out..

TCU being left out is in the same other universe where the NY Giants are winning the division.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I'm thinking the committee has dropped them from 1 to 3 to 4, even putting TCU in front of them. And now another team behind them had what will be considered a much more impressive win. So I wouldn't be sleeping comfortably, that's all I'm saying.

I also said in this thread that if they were left out, then the system is a sham and would be completely reconstructed after just 1 year.

This is reality.

Fla St will be 4th, they shouldn't be sleeping easy, but if its NOT them??

then holy Fn shlit.

 

[leftytg]

If you took Ohio State's resume, but gave it the name Minnesota or *gasp* Baylor, they wouldn't be getting nearly the same amount of love. Stacked next to the other schools, they have the worst resume. The B1G was much weaker than the Big 12 this year. OSU has, easily, the worst loss of the bunch. They didn't beat anyone notable in their nonconference schedule. OSU should not be in any kind of realistic consideration, except that they have OSU on their jersey. I'll be pissed if OSU gets the 4th spot.

I see TCU and Baylor as a toss up, though i lean slightly toward TCU. The game they played was at Baylor and was razor close. I think TCU beats Baylor 7 out of 10 times, and if they got to play at TCU then TCU would win.

 

[TheCusian]

As for the supposed bad loss. Do the 11 consecutive wins and conference championship count for anything?

Not when being compared to other teams with the same schedule. The B1G is also not very good this year.

 

[SmilinBob]

I'm thinking the committee has dropped them from 1 to 3 to 4, even putting TCU in front of them. And now another team behind them had what will be considered a much more impressive win. So I wouldn't be sleeping comfortably, that's all I'm saying.

I also said in this thread that if they were left out, then the system is a sham and would be completely reconstructed after just 1 year.

It'll be like the good old days when "they" picked their champions. There have been some bizarre champions in the history of college football.

 

[KaiserUEO]

TCU being left out is in the same other universe where the NY Giants are winning the division.

Both are finishing 3rd.

Giants in the vaunted NfC East, tcu in the 4th, F4 spot. They finish 6.

 

[SmilinBob]

I wonder if there are any back room deals going on? Heck, Baylor spent money on lobbyists.

 

[Alsacs]

Isn't this kind of similar to FSU this year? They haven't looked dominant (not even against Syracuse) at all this season despite being in one of the weakest P5 conferences. They deserve to go, but should have to play either Oregon or Alabama first and prove themselves.



Beating P5 opponents should not matter - playing Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Wake Forest (or other comparable "P5" teams) is not the same as playing Marshall, Boise State and Colorado State (or other non "P5" teams that are really good).

The whole "P5" argument is silly considering there are some awful P5 teams out there. The relative strength of the team should be considered, not what conference they are in.

In 2002 Ohio state was ranked 2nd the got to play for the NC even though their game control was awful and they barely won. Now FSU is that team so Ohio State should you got the benefit of the doubt that year so you can't complain now.

13-0 from a P5 conference with 3 tough OOC games is not good enough to be top 4 because all they do is eek out wins then college football is pointless.

 

[Chip]

This is reality.

Fla St will be 4th, they shouldn't be sleeping easy, but if its NOT them??

then holy Fn shlit.

I'm starting to rally around Ohio State - Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That would be fun.

I guess either way, if you get FSU, Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, it's a huge win for the combination of national appeal and traveling fan bases. All matchups, including Jerry World are going to be great.

 

[Alsacs]

If Ohio State is deemed 4th then move Oregon to first and have the traditional PAC-12 v. B1G Rose Bowl and Bama-FSU in New Orleans.