The key to this year going well is the defense

[OttoinGrotto]

I'll readily admit that I'm about as pessimistic as I have been ahead of any season going back to late-era GRob. So take my opinions with a huge grain of salt.

QB: We do have guys who have played before. And improvement can always happen. I just worry that the MS St kid won't be ready to really contribute early, and that TD is what he is. Maybe someone will make the leap, who knows, but it's difficult to be confident about that IMHO,

WR: Harris and Queeley are... fine. Again, improvement can happen, but I worry that we don't have anyone that keeps DCs up at night.

OL: We're almost always below average here, and I've heard nothing to believe we'll be anything much better than below average this season.

Agree that RB should be good.

Maybe we'll see improvement all over the place, I sure hope we do. At this point I don't see much much more than people hoping though.

Our history over the last two decades supports your pessimism.

I prefer to get into the season and get kicked in the nuts a few times before I allow the pessimism take over.

Your way is probably healthier.

 

[syrBossHogg]

That's fair. I guess I just don't have nearly the optimism of others to assume that the O will be good enough. We still have an unsettled QB position, lots of questions at WR, and who-the-hell-knows at OL. 30 PPG may be enough to get us to 6 wins, assuming the D isn't a flaming wreck.

Yeah I don't blame anyone for feeling pessimistic, for me I tend to be an optimist and can always talk myself into thinking things will get better every season.

 

[EuclidBred]

Honestly, the biggest ? for me on D is the DL. We have a lot of bodies but nothing proven behind Black, McKinley Johnathan and maybe Linton. Seems like they've had some covid issues this summer too. Concerns me if one of those guys goes down.

 

[RF2044]

I think the offense will be better, and the defense may be slightly better, but will look significantly better because the offense will be helping them a whole lot more.

I'm less worried about the defense, and much more worried about the offense getting off to slow starts and having too many empty possessions that take hardly any time off the clock.

I think this is right.

Defense should have quality depth, and a lot fewer inexperienced players being thrown to the wolves this season. It was also their first year running the new system, and they looked pretty good most games [albeit with a tendency to wear down due to overuse]. If the offense can move the chains a little, that will reduce the amount of snaps the D has to be out on the field, and help them avoid getting worn down late in games.

Defense, to me, looks solid on paper. If they can figure out the CB position outside of Williams, I expect the defensive unit to take things up a notch this year.

Need the offense to do their part. Hopefully, improved play at QB and OL will be a big part of improved production on that end.

I'm with Go -- I understand the pessimism, but think this team is bowl-bound, and about to start a streak of winning seasons.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think this is right.

Defense should have quality depth, and a lot fewer inexperienced players being thrown to the wolves this season. It was also their first year running the new system, and they looked pretty good most games [albeit with a tendency to wear down due to overuse]. If the offense can move the chains a little, that will reduce the amount of snaps the D has to be out on the field, and help them avoid getting worn down late in games.

Defense, to me, looks solid on paper. If they can figure out the CB position outside of Williams, I expect the defensive unit to take things up a notch this year.

Need the offense to do their part. Hopefully, improved play at QB and OL will be a big part of improved production on that end.

I'm with Go -- I understand the pessimism, but think this team is bowl-bound, and about to start a streak of winning seasons.

Agreed, lets have some balance out there for once. I know it sounds crazy but I just hope the O can find a way to create some running game and keep the opponents D on their toes. And as go said, D needs to get off the field on 3rd down. I still believe that a QB that can beat you with his feet and arm is the best path to success at Syracuse. Running back seems to be the deepest position even with the injury to Hough. I am drinking the 7-5 Kool Aid.

 

[Pyle]

Doesn't seem that 30 PPG will be enough to get to a bowl, regardless of the D. PPG is a weird stat anyway, since it can be skewed by piling up points against OOC teams. We scored 25 PPG against ACC opponents in 2019, and 23 PPG in 2017. That's pretty lousy, and our record reflected that.

Obviously, we'd love to have a strong D. But I think expecting 30 PPG is a bit of a reach, given how mediocre the O was at scoring points in all but 2018 under Babers.

Weird how? If you score more PPG than your opponent does that equals wins. You can run up any stat against FCS but given an overall body of work it's not a bad stat. The fact the 30PPG seems so out of reach to some tells me one of two things. Either you haven't been keeping up with the modern game or you have no faith that SU can make a bowl game. Here are the teams who scored between 29 and 31 PPG last year:

40	Tulane	31.0	27.0	30.0	39.6	24.9	25.6
41	Buffalo	30.9	43.0	31.0	39.8	24.6	33.5
42	Washington	30.8	27.7	38.0	31.5	30.0	24.9
43	Virginia	30.5	28.0	28.0	39.0	23.3	27.3
44	Oklahoma St	30.5	19.0	21.0	26.8	33.1	36.8
45	Wake Forest	30.4	30.0	21.0	37.7	23.2	31.3
46	Houston	30.1	30.7	41.0	30.5	29.9	41.8
47	Indiana	30.1	26.7	22.0	26.2	32.9	26.4
48	Oregon St	29.9	32.7	10.0	22.6	36.0	24.1
49	Central Mich	29.8	27.0	11.0	45.2	20.2	14.8
50	Georgia State	29.8	18.3	17.0	37.4	24.4	23.9
51	Cincinnati	29.6	28.7	38.0	28.8	30.2	32.6
52	Fresno St	29.6	17.0	16.0	37.0	23.5	31.2
53	San Jose St	29.6	30.7	17.0	24.8	33.7	19.7
54	TX Christian	29.5	24.7	17.0	33.2	26.5	20.9
55	Kent State	29.5	42.0	51.0	37.2	25.6	21.2
56	Texas Tech	29.2	27.3	24.0	33.0	26.0	33.7

If our offense can't keep up with those schools then we aren't going bowling and Dino isn't getting a 6th year. 29PPG puts you in the dead middle of D1 schools. It shouldn't be that unattainable. The fact that we are almost always on the wrong side of this list IS a MAJOR reason we can't break .500

I know I responded to you Scooch but that was only meant in response to the weird how thing. Rest of this post is directed to OP, sorry for any confusion.

 

[bigmike]

If I could just see 2-4 sustained (defined as 60+ yards resulting in touchdowns using 4 minutes plus off the clock) drives in the Ohio game I think I will become a believer.

 

[Scooch]

Weird how? If you score more PPG than your opponent does that equals wins. You can run up any stat against FCS but given an overall body of work it's not a bad stat. The fact the 30PPG seems so out of reach to some tells me one of two things. Either you haven't been keeping up with the modern game or you have no faith that SU can make a bowl game. Here are the teams who scored between 29 and 31 PPG last year:

40	Tulane	31.0	27.0	30.0	39.6	24.9	25.6
41	Buffalo	30.9	43.0	31.0	39.8	24.6	33.5
42	Washington	30.8	27.7	38.0	31.5	30.0	24.9
43	Virginia	30.5	28.0	28.0	39.0	23.3	27.3
44	Oklahoma St	30.5	19.0	21.0	26.8	33.1	36.8
45	Wake Forest	30.4	30.0	21.0	37.7	23.2	31.3
46	Houston	30.1	30.7	41.0	30.5	29.9	41.8
47	Indiana	30.1	26.7	22.0	26.2	32.9	26.4
48	Oregon St	29.9	32.7	10.0	22.6	36.0	24.1
49	Central Mich	29.8	27.0	11.0	45.2	20.2	14.8
50	Georgia State	29.8	18.3	17.0	37.4	24.4	23.9
51	Cincinnati	29.6	28.7	38.0	28.8	30.2	32.6
52	Fresno St	29.6	17.0	16.0	37.0	23.5	31.2
53	San Jose St	29.6	30.7	17.0	24.8	33.7	19.7
54	TX Christian	29.5	24.7	17.0	33.2	26.5	20.9
55	Kent State	29.5	42.0	51.0	37.2	25.6	21.2
56	Texas Tech	29.2	27.3	24.0	33.0	26.0	33.7

If our offense can't keep up with those schools then we aren't going bowling and Dino isn't getting a 6th year. 29PPG puts you in the dead middle of D1 schools. It shouldn't be that unattainable. The fact that we are almost always on the wrong side of this list IS a MAJOR reason we can't break .500

I know I responded to you Scooch but that was only meant in response to the weird how thing. Rest of this post is directed to OP, sorry for any confusion.

All good. I said "weird" just because we could score 50 against Albany, then 10 against Pitt, and be averaging 30. But obviously that tends to balance out over the course of the season.

I agree with your point though, 30 should not be exceedingly difficult for a P5 team to average.. and yet we've done so exactly once in Dino's five seasons. I don't think the key for this season is the defense.

 

[TheCusian]

All good. I said "weird" just because we could score 50 against Albany, then 10 against Pitt, and be averaging 30. But obviously that tends to balance out over the course of the season.

I agree with your point though, 30 should not be exceedingly difficult for a P5 team to average.. and yet we've done so exactly once in Dino's five seasons. I don't think the key for this season is the defense.

It gets scarier the farther back you go, that’s why Dino’s first two seasons were rough w/l wise but we finally were getting close to have a mid-tier CFB offense

 

[Scooch]

It gets scarier the farther back you go, that’s why Dino’s first two seasons were rough w/l wise but we finally were getting close to have a mid-tier CFB offense

What always worried me was that we improved our yardage, but points grew at a much slower rate. Outside of 2018 that's been a consistent dynamic. We simply need to put a lot more on the board.

 

[PhatOrange]

crazy take that the season going well rides on the defense. The O averaged 18 ppg, 266 yards (4.4 pp) and had a 3rd down conversion rate of 26%. That's historically bad offense. The #1 defense in the nation paired with that O would likely finish with a losing record.

 

[Jeremy L.]

Lately, I've always thought the defense played well enough to win us games. Problem was the offense couldn't stay on the field for more than a few minutes, which led to a gassed defense. If the offense can be productive, we can have some battles this season.

 

[TheCusian]

What always worried me was that we improved our yardage, but points grew at a much slower rate. Outside of 2018 that's been a consistent dynamic. We simply need to put a lot more on the board.

Yep. We were moving the ball and not converting for 2 years. Yardage was there, but ineffeciently. 2019 was a mess, 2020 was awful.

I think a run game could spring the whole thing. But if it were easy, it would have been done already

 

[AZOrange]

I’m going with the OL.

Then QB play.

 

[GoSU96]

crazy take that the season going well rides on the defense. The O averaged 18 ppg, 266 yards (4.4 pp) and had a 3rd down conversion rate of 26%. That's historically bad offense. The #1 defense in the nation paired with that O would likely finish with a losing record.

you completely missed the point. Last year was an aberration on offense, it’s not the starting point, it’s not the baseline

 

[OrangeinBoston]

you completely missed the point. Last year was an aberration on offense, it’s not the starting point, it’s not the baseline

The record was 5W 7L in 2019, not as sucky, but pretty sucky. Plenty of blame for the offense - ranked #70 in yards per game.

 

[GoSU96]

What always worried me was that we improved our yardage, but points grew at a much slower rate. Outside of 2018 that's been a consistent dynamic. We simply need to put a lot more on the board.

Redzone and in particular close redzone. Exposes talent issues and inability of oline to force the issue. Moved the ball but can’t win in a compressed field.

That has certainly been an issue. It’s been an issue most seasons going back to when P was fired. I think this offense will be better than average for this program in that area this year.

 

[upperdeck]

the lack of a running game anytime we got in true running positions has killed the offense for many many yrs.. ie IOWA. we got around it a bit with ED. but no push at all whenever the other team lined up and played the run.. we beat clemson because we did it for that game when we needed to. we lost 2-3 games last year because we cant run in the red zone or most anytime its 2/3/4 and short.. we cant even take shots because we end up with a 3/4th and short and its never a gimmee..

we get back to making those 50/50s and then you start to see us go for it more and drives get extended again..

 

[baggerbob]

the lack of a running game anytime we got in true running positions has killed the offense for many many yrs.. ie IOWA. we got around it a bit with ED. but no push at all whenever the other team lined up and played the run.. we beat clemson because we did it for that game when we needed to. we lost 2-3 games last year because we cant run in the red zone or most anytime its 2/3/4 and short.. we cant even take shots because we end up with a 3/4th and short and its never a gimmee..

we get back to making those 50/50s and then you start to see us go for it more and drives get extended again..

The red zone, a guy 6-7 and 265 should help in the end zone. Really hope he has good hands, his size in the red zone could turn Field Goals into Touchdowns.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

The red zone, a guy 6-7 and 265 should help in the end zone. Really hope he has good hands, his size in the red zone could turn Field Goals into Touchdowns.

Gronk

 

[syrBossHogg]

 

[bigmike]

My view to the key to the season is when the team faces its first 3rd and 1 against Ohio. If they make it by pounding the rock, the season will be a success. Let’s see what happens.

 

[qdawgg]

Redzone and in particular close redzone. Exposes talent issues and inability of oline to force the issue. Moved the ball but can’t win in a compressed field.

That has certainly been an issue. It’s been an issue most seasons going back to when P was fired. I think this offense will be better than average for this program in that area this year.

3rd down conversion has also been largely horrendous since DB has been here. It’s not just scoring in the red zone from 2 yards away. We’re not at the goal line or even in the red zone some amazing % out of all college teams. Other than some cool stats with passing (bexause we didn’t know what that even was for years) this offense has been at best, in the middle of the rest of college programs and sometimes in the lower 25% in key areas.

I’m talking in general since this staff has been here. Not just the one good year. Overall, this offense isn’t inches from being a top 25 scoring offense. We’ve been much much further away than that for most of the time DB has been here.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

3rd down conversion has also been largely horrendous since DB has been here. It’s not just scoring in the red zone from 2 yards away. We’re not at the goal line or even in the red zone some amazing % out of all college teams. Other than some cool stats with passing (bexause we didn’t know what that even was for years) this offense has been at best, in the middle of the rest of college programs and sometimes in the lower 25% in key areas.

I’m talking in general since this staff has been here. Not just the one good year. Overall, this offense isn’t inches from being a top 25 scoring offense. We’ve been much much further away than that for most of the time DB has been here.

I think this is one of the really surprising parts of Dino's tenure.

On the whole, defense has been stronger than offense under him for us. I just didn't expect that. It thought we'd be throwing the ball all over and putting up points like crazy.

It's weird.

But you know what's not the answer?

Meathead football.

 

[syrBossHogg]

There's no question the defense has been better these past couple years compared to the offense, but we had some HORRENDOUS defensive performances in 2016/17 and I didn't even mention the Maryland and BC embarrassments in 2019. The offensive issues in recent years to me are more cause of recruiting and roster mgmt/player development issues rather than schematic issues.