SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
We are down to one undefeated team with a shot at the title:
NOTRE DAME 11-0 (299-111) #1
11/24 at Southern California 7-4 (397-273)
Now they have to play USC, a team that has spoiled perfect Notre Dame seasons before. The Trojans don’t have Matt Barkley but they still put a talented team in the field. The Irish have been solid but not over-whelming. If Alabama and Oregon could loose and K-Stat5e get blown out, Notre Dame can certainly lose so this isn’t over.
Comment: Ohio State is 11-0 (420-253) and #4 in the writer’s poll but on probation. I now think Oregon is the best team in the country but they have the biggest hurdles to overcome. I think they’ll do it but the fact that Kansas State and Notre Dame have simpler roads to the title game, (both in terms of the number of games they’d have to win the quality of the opposition). can’t be discounted.
We now know that a one-loss team will play for the title so here are the one loss teams from the BCS conferences:
ALABAMA 10-1 (419-111) #2
11/24 Auburn 3-8 (180-335)
Auburn is a rivalry game but the Tide has got to be re-energized now that they have a second chance to get to the title game. I don’t see an upset here or in the SEC title game.
GEORGIA 10-1 (414-202) #3
11/24 Georgia Tech 6-5 (424-326)
Georgia Tech got off to a lousy start but has been improving, (not unlike SU) as the season went along and I don’t put it past the Jackets to beat their arch-rivals and knock them out of a shot at the BCS title game. The Bulldogs will play for the SEC title but I don’t see them getting past Alabama. Both can score but the Tide plays better defense.
FLORIDA 10-1 (284-129) #4
11/24 at Florida State 10-1 (445-144) #10
They won’t win the SEC East and won’t play for the conference title or the national title. But if the knock off the Seminoles, they’ll be 11-1. It’s not impossible that one of the teams playing for the title will have the same record.
OREGON 10-1 (562-240) #5
11/24 at Oregon State 8-2 (295-186) #16
Not only did they lose a shot at the BCS title game: they also lost a shot at the PAC12 titles game, which means their only “comeback” game is against arch-rival Oregon State. If they have two chances against ranked teams to rebuild their reputation they might have found their way into the BCS game after all. State may have plans for them anyway. The beavers will be at home and Ducks maybe feeling out of sorts. Another loss is real possible.
KANSAS STATE 10-1 (446-229) #6
12/1 Texas 8-2 (396-291) #15
They weren’t just beaten. They were exposed. They looked mediocre against a 4-5 team that had given up 70 points to West Virginia. They also won’t be playing in a conference title game, which looked like an advantage last week. It’s not going to matter if they beat Texas and because of that, they might not.
FLORIDA STATE 10-1 (445-144) #10
11/24 Florida 10-1 (284-129) #4
They’ve already beaten Clemson, 49-37 and are the likely ACC champs. Their ranking could rise with a win over Florida but probably not enough to make them a title contender. Too bad because this is their best team in years. I think they’ll beat Florida, maybe even easily.
CLEMSON 10-1 (491-272) #11
11/24 South Carolina 9-2 (350-192) #12
This is a better Clemson team than the one West Virginia blew out last year in the Orange Bowl. With Lattimore out for SC, I can see them winding up a strong 11-1. But I think they are rated too far down the list to be thinking about the national title game.
RUTGERS 9-1 (246-124) #18
11/24 at Pittsburgh 4-6 (275-227)
11/29 Louisville 9-1 (322-246) #20
I have a feeling that the Scarlett Knights will beat Louisville, win the Big East and play in the Orange Bowl. But I still don’t think they are better than we are.
LOUISVILLE 9-1 (322-246) #20
11/24 Connecticut 4-6 (173-184)
11/29 at Rutgers 9-1 (246-124) #18
Whatever tiny little chance the Cardinals had of flying into the BCS title game got ground into the field turf of the Carrier Dome but they can still win the conference and play in the BCS.
Overall: ESPN’s John Saunders said “Just wait for things to play out, as they do every year.” They may play out but they don’t work out. Here is the history of the BCS:
1998: Tennessee was 12-0. Florida State was 11-1, Ohio State was 10-1. Kansas State, (which had a year similar to this one) was 11-1. Arizona was 11-1. UCLA was 10-1. Wisconsin was 10-1. Tulane was 11-0 and Air Force was 11-1. Tennessee beat Florida State 23-16 in the BCS title game and the rest watched on TV.
1999: Florida State and Virginia Tech were both 11-0. Marshall was 12-0 but so what? Nebraska was 11-1 and Kansas State 10-1 but it didn’t matter this year. Florida State beat the Hokies for the title 46-29.
2000: Oklahoma was 12-0. Miami was 10-1 and had beaten Florida State 11-1. Washington was 10-1 and had beaten both Miami and Oregon State who was 10-1. Virginia Tech had lost to Miami but beaten everyone else to go 10-1. TCU and Toledo were also 10-1 for what it’s worth. Florida State was chosen as Oklahoma’s opponent in the BCS title game and lost, 2-13.
2001: Miami was 11-0. Oregon was 10-1 and ranked #2 in both polls. Nebraska was 11-1 but had lost to Colorado on national TV, 36-62 and didn’t even win their division of their conference. Maryland and Illinois were 10-1 and Brigham Young was 12-1. Miami crushed Nebraska 37-14 for the national championship after building up a 34-0 halftime lead.
2002: Miami was 12-0 and Ohio State 13-0, which topped Georgia’s 12-1, Iowa’s 11-1and Boise State’s 11-1. The Buckeyes won 31-24 in overtime.
2003: Southern California was 11-1 and #1 in both polls but didn’t get to play in the BCS titles game. Instead LSU, 12-1, and Oklahoma, also 12-1 did so and the Tigers won 21-14. The other Miami was 11-1 as was TCU. Boise State was 12-1.
2004: Southern California, Oklahoma and Auburn were all 12-0. Somebody had to watch the title game on TV and it turned out to be Auburn. Utah and Boise State were both 11-0 while Texas and Louisville were 11-1. The title game turned out to be a blow-out, the Trojans winning 55-19.
2005: Perfections. USC and Texas were both 12-0 and averaging 50 points a game and played one of the greatest games of all time for the national title, Texas winning 42-39. Penn State, Oregon, West Virginia and TCU were 10-1 but so what?
2006: Ohio State, 12-0, and Michigan, 11-1, were both undefeated and ranked #1-2 going into their annual classic. The Buckeyes won another 42-39 game. Shouldn’t the title game be a rematch? Instead 12-1 Florida slipped in ahead of Michigan and got the date, then whipped the Buckeyes so soundly, 41-14, (after seeing the opening kickoff returned for a touchdown against them), that it was clear that neither the Buckeyes or the Wolverines had really been the best two teams in the country. Louisville and Wisconsin were 11-1 and Boise State was 12-0.
2007: Nobody was undefeated. Ohio State and Kansas were 11-1 but were not matched in the title game because, well… one of them was Kansas. There was an Army of two loss teams to chose from: LSU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri were all 11-2. Georgia, USC, West Virginia, Arizona State, Brigham Young and Boise State were all 10-2. LSU was the chosen one and beat the Buckeyes 38-24 for the title.
2008: Nobody was unbeaten this year, either, except Utah and Boise State. Did they play for the National championship? Not a chance. Instead they had to chose from 12-1 Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, (and Ball State, FWIW) or 11-1 Texas, USC, Penn State or Texas Tech. Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 for the title.
2009: Alabama and Texas were both 13-0. What did it matter if Boise State was, too, or that Cincinnati and TCU were 12-0? Or that Florida was 12-1? The Tide won the title, 37-21.
2010: Auburn was 13-0. Oregon and TCU were both 12-0. Sorry TCU! And sorry Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Boise State, all 11-1 and Nevada, who was 12-1.
2011: LSU was a very impressive 13-0, with 6 wins over ranked teams, (8 were ranked when the Tigers played them). Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford and Boise State were 11-1 and Houston 12-1. LSU had played one of those teams already and, of course beaten them. Nonetheless, a rematch was ordered up, resulting in a boring 0-21 final.
2012: Florida State-Florida and Rutgers-Lousiville will elimate two teams and the SEC title game another but we could still have as many as 5 BCS conference teams with as good a record as at least one of the team in the national title game.
That is “playing out” but it isn’t “working out” and it meant the end of the two team playoff system, (after next year).
It just didn’t work out.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
We are down to one undefeated team with a shot at the title:
NOTRE DAME 11-0 (299-111) #1
11/24 at Southern California 7-4 (397-273)
Now they have to play USC, a team that has spoiled perfect Notre Dame seasons before. The Trojans don’t have Matt Barkley but they still put a talented team in the field. The Irish have been solid but not over-whelming. If Alabama and Oregon could loose and K-Stat5e get blown out, Notre Dame can certainly lose so this isn’t over.
Comment: Ohio State is 11-0 (420-253) and #4 in the writer’s poll but on probation. I now think Oregon is the best team in the country but they have the biggest hurdles to overcome. I think they’ll do it but the fact that Kansas State and Notre Dame have simpler roads to the title game, (both in terms of the number of games they’d have to win the quality of the opposition). can’t be discounted.
We now know that a one-loss team will play for the title so here are the one loss teams from the BCS conferences:
ALABAMA 10-1 (419-111) #2
11/24 Auburn 3-8 (180-335)
Auburn is a rivalry game but the Tide has got to be re-energized now that they have a second chance to get to the title game. I don’t see an upset here or in the SEC title game.
GEORGIA 10-1 (414-202) #3
11/24 Georgia Tech 6-5 (424-326)
Georgia Tech got off to a lousy start but has been improving, (not unlike SU) as the season went along and I don’t put it past the Jackets to beat their arch-rivals and knock them out of a shot at the BCS title game. The Bulldogs will play for the SEC title but I don’t see them getting past Alabama. Both can score but the Tide plays better defense.
FLORIDA 10-1 (284-129) #4
11/24 at Florida State 10-1 (445-144) #10
They won’t win the SEC East and won’t play for the conference title or the national title. But if the knock off the Seminoles, they’ll be 11-1. It’s not impossible that one of the teams playing for the title will have the same record.
OREGON 10-1 (562-240) #5
11/24 at Oregon State 8-2 (295-186) #16
Not only did they lose a shot at the BCS title game: they also lost a shot at the PAC12 titles game, which means their only “comeback” game is against arch-rival Oregon State. If they have two chances against ranked teams to rebuild their reputation they might have found their way into the BCS game after all. State may have plans for them anyway. The beavers will be at home and Ducks maybe feeling out of sorts. Another loss is real possible.
KANSAS STATE 10-1 (446-229) #6
12/1 Texas 8-2 (396-291) #15
They weren’t just beaten. They were exposed. They looked mediocre against a 4-5 team that had given up 70 points to West Virginia. They also won’t be playing in a conference title game, which looked like an advantage last week. It’s not going to matter if they beat Texas and because of that, they might not.
FLORIDA STATE 10-1 (445-144) #10
11/24 Florida 10-1 (284-129) #4
They’ve already beaten Clemson, 49-37 and are the likely ACC champs. Their ranking could rise with a win over Florida but probably not enough to make them a title contender. Too bad because this is their best team in years. I think they’ll beat Florida, maybe even easily.
CLEMSON 10-1 (491-272) #11
11/24 South Carolina 9-2 (350-192) #12
This is a better Clemson team than the one West Virginia blew out last year in the Orange Bowl. With Lattimore out for SC, I can see them winding up a strong 11-1. But I think they are rated too far down the list to be thinking about the national title game.
RUTGERS 9-1 (246-124) #18
11/24 at Pittsburgh 4-6 (275-227)
11/29 Louisville 9-1 (322-246) #20
I have a feeling that the Scarlett Knights will beat Louisville, win the Big East and play in the Orange Bowl. But I still don’t think they are better than we are.
LOUISVILLE 9-1 (322-246) #20
11/24 Connecticut 4-6 (173-184)
11/29 at Rutgers 9-1 (246-124) #18
Whatever tiny little chance the Cardinals had of flying into the BCS title game got ground into the field turf of the Carrier Dome but they can still win the conference and play in the BCS.
Overall: ESPN’s John Saunders said “Just wait for things to play out, as they do every year.” They may play out but they don’t work out. Here is the history of the BCS:
1998: Tennessee was 12-0. Florida State was 11-1, Ohio State was 10-1. Kansas State, (which had a year similar to this one) was 11-1. Arizona was 11-1. UCLA was 10-1. Wisconsin was 10-1. Tulane was 11-0 and Air Force was 11-1. Tennessee beat Florida State 23-16 in the BCS title game and the rest watched on TV.
1999: Florida State and Virginia Tech were both 11-0. Marshall was 12-0 but so what? Nebraska was 11-1 and Kansas State 10-1 but it didn’t matter this year. Florida State beat the Hokies for the title 46-29.
2000: Oklahoma was 12-0. Miami was 10-1 and had beaten Florida State 11-1. Washington was 10-1 and had beaten both Miami and Oregon State who was 10-1. Virginia Tech had lost to Miami but beaten everyone else to go 10-1. TCU and Toledo were also 10-1 for what it’s worth. Florida State was chosen as Oklahoma’s opponent in the BCS title game and lost, 2-13.
2001: Miami was 11-0. Oregon was 10-1 and ranked #2 in both polls. Nebraska was 11-1 but had lost to Colorado on national TV, 36-62 and didn’t even win their division of their conference. Maryland and Illinois were 10-1 and Brigham Young was 12-1. Miami crushed Nebraska 37-14 for the national championship after building up a 34-0 halftime lead.
2002: Miami was 12-0 and Ohio State 13-0, which topped Georgia’s 12-1, Iowa’s 11-1and Boise State’s 11-1. The Buckeyes won 31-24 in overtime.
2003: Southern California was 11-1 and #1 in both polls but didn’t get to play in the BCS titles game. Instead LSU, 12-1, and Oklahoma, also 12-1 did so and the Tigers won 21-14. The other Miami was 11-1 as was TCU. Boise State was 12-1.
2004: Southern California, Oklahoma and Auburn were all 12-0. Somebody had to watch the title game on TV and it turned out to be Auburn. Utah and Boise State were both 11-0 while Texas and Louisville were 11-1. The title game turned out to be a blow-out, the Trojans winning 55-19.
2005: Perfections. USC and Texas were both 12-0 and averaging 50 points a game and played one of the greatest games of all time for the national title, Texas winning 42-39. Penn State, Oregon, West Virginia and TCU were 10-1 but so what?
2006: Ohio State, 12-0, and Michigan, 11-1, were both undefeated and ranked #1-2 going into their annual classic. The Buckeyes won another 42-39 game. Shouldn’t the title game be a rematch? Instead 12-1 Florida slipped in ahead of Michigan and got the date, then whipped the Buckeyes so soundly, 41-14, (after seeing the opening kickoff returned for a touchdown against them), that it was clear that neither the Buckeyes or the Wolverines had really been the best two teams in the country. Louisville and Wisconsin were 11-1 and Boise State was 12-0.
2007: Nobody was undefeated. Ohio State and Kansas were 11-1 but were not matched in the title game because, well… one of them was Kansas. There was an Army of two loss teams to chose from: LSU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri were all 11-2. Georgia, USC, West Virginia, Arizona State, Brigham Young and Boise State were all 10-2. LSU was the chosen one and beat the Buckeyes 38-24 for the title.
2008: Nobody was unbeaten this year, either, except Utah and Boise State. Did they play for the National championship? Not a chance. Instead they had to chose from 12-1 Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, (and Ball State, FWIW) or 11-1 Texas, USC, Penn State or Texas Tech. Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 for the title.
2009: Alabama and Texas were both 13-0. What did it matter if Boise State was, too, or that Cincinnati and TCU were 12-0? Or that Florida was 12-1? The Tide won the title, 37-21.
2010: Auburn was 13-0. Oregon and TCU were both 12-0. Sorry TCU! And sorry Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Boise State, all 11-1 and Nevada, who was 12-1.
2011: LSU was a very impressive 13-0, with 6 wins over ranked teams, (8 were ranked when the Tigers played them). Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford and Boise State were 11-1 and Houston 12-1. LSU had played one of those teams already and, of course beaten them. Nonetheless, a rematch was ordered up, resulting in a boring 0-21 final.
2012: Florida State-Florida and Rutgers-Lousiville will elimate two teams and the SEC title game another but we could still have as many as 5 BCS conference teams with as good a record as at least one of the team in the national title game.
That is “playing out” but it isn’t “working out” and it meant the end of the two team playoff system, (after next year).
It just didn’t work out.
