SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 5-0 (185-61) writers: #1, coaches: #1
10/12 at Kentucky 1-4 (115-128)
10/19 Arkansas 3-3 (156-141)
10/26 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 5-1 (273-148) writers: #10, coaches: #11
11/16 at Mississippi State 2-3 (162-118)
11/23 Chattanooga 3-2 (168-99)
11/30 at Auburn 4-1 (144-110)
Comment: The Tide should roll to a 12-0 regular season. Besides them there are six other SEC teams in the top 25: Georgia, Texas A&M, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Florida and Missouri. They’ve already beaten A&M and will play LSU at home. They don’t play the four others at all.
OREGON 5-0 (296-59) writers: #2, coaches: #2
10/12 at Washington 4-1 (187-74) writers: #16, coaches: #19
10/19 Washington State 4-2 (185-123)
10/26 UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11, coaches: #13
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
11/16 Utah 3-2 (195-131)
11/23 at Arizona 3-1 (145-57)
11/29 Oregon State 4-1 (208-158)
Comments: statistically, the Ducks are the most impressive team in the country. They have scored at least 55 points in every game and, despite playing with big leads, have given up fewer points than Alabama. But they haven’t played anybody any good yet, (Nicholls State, Virginia, Tennessee, California and Colorado). Unlike Alabama, they have a very bumpy ride coming up: seven straight games against teams with winning records, three of them ranked and two of those games on the road.
CLEMSON 5-0 (223-83) writers: #3 coaches: #4
10/12 Boston College 3-2 (137-134)
10/19 Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/26 at Maryland 4-1 (159-104)
11/2 at Virginia 2-3 (108-137)
11/9 BYE
11/14 Georgia Tech 3-2 (176-96)
11/23 the Citadel 2-4 (173-185)
11/30 at South Carolina 4-1 (155-129)
Comment: It’s all about the game two weeks from now in Death Valley-and about the rivalry game with a somewhat disappointing South Carolina at the end of the regular season. I don’t see anyone else holding the Tigers.
OHIO STATE 6-0 (281-115) writers: #4, coaches: #3
10/12 BYE
10/19 Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
10/26 Penn State 3-2 (157-102)
11/2 at Purdue 1-4 (85-183)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-2 (180-138)
11/23 Indiana 3-2 (221-155)
11/30 at Michigan 5-0 (194-97) writers: 18, coaches: #16
Comment: The Buckeyes have some challenges left but passed their biggest test in beating Wisconsin and Northwestern in a couple of terrific games. Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 18 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 22 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs.
STANFORD 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
10/12 at Utah 3-2 (195-131)
10/19 UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11, coaches: #13
10/26 at Oregon State 4-1 (208-158)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oregon 5-0 (296-59) writers & coaches: #2
11/16 at Southern California 3-2 (130-106)
11/23 California 1-4 (139-225)
11/30 Notre Dame 4-2 (164-153)
Comment: Like Oregon, the Cardinal, (black Cardinals?) are a long way from home with two games against unbeaten teams plus Notre Dame. But all those games are at home.
FLORIDA STATE 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/12 BYE
10/19 at Clemson 5-0 (223-83) writers: #3, coaches #4
10/26 North Carolina State 3-2 (138-105)
11/2 Miami 5-0 (226-80) writers: #13, coaches #14
11/9 at Wake Forest 3-3 (120-132)
11/16 Syracuse 2-3 (164-137)
11/23 Idaho 1-5 (93-254)
11/30 at Florida 4-1 (125-61) writers and coaches: #17
Comment: The Noles may be “back but they have some huge games coming up at Clemson and Florida and at home vs. Miami.
LOUISVILLE 5-0 (222-34) writers and coaches: #8
10/10 Rutgers 4-1 (200-138)
10/18 Central Florida 4-1 (159-83)
10/26 at South Florida 1-4 (84-171)
11/2 BYE
11/8 Connecticut 0-4 (72-130)
11/16 Houston 4-0 (174-80)
11/23 Memphis 1-3 (77-76)
11/30 BYE
12/5 at Cincinnati 3-2 (152-94)
Comment: Louisville has a great chance to run the table and they are ranked highly enough that if the teams above them all get dinged they could conceivably find themselves in the national title game. But I have a feeling there could be an upset hiding in the woods, from Rutgers, UCF or Houston or Cincinnati.
UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11 coaches: #13
10/12 California 1-4 (139-225)
10/19 at Stanford 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
10/26 at Oregon 5-0 (296-59) writers and coaches: #2
11/2 Colorado 2-2 (112-150)
11/9 at Arizona 3-1 (145-57)
11/15 Washington 4-1 (187-41) writers: #16, coaches: #19
11/23 Arizona State 3-2 (193-168)
11/30 at Southern California 3-2 (130-106)
Comment: This is a coming program but I doubt they will be on this list in November.
OKLAHOMA 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches: #10
10/12 Texas 3-2 (162-142)
10/19 at Kansas 2-2 (74-101)
10/26 Texas Tech 5-0 (209-69) writers: #20, coaches: #21
11/2 BYE
11/7 Baylor 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches #15
11/16 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
11/23 at Kansas State 2-3 ( 156-122)
11/30 BYE
12/7 at Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #22, coaches #20
Comment: The Sooners have some good wins but they will need some more to finish undefeated and rise in the rankings. And they will need some help from others to get to a championship game.
MIAMI 5-0 (226-80) writers: #13, coaches: #14
10/12 BYE
10/17 at North Carolina 1-4 (118-157)
10/26 Wake Forest 3-3 (96-156)
11/2 at Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
11/9 Virginia Tech 5-1 (143-96) writers: #24, coaches: #25
11/16 at Duke 3-2 (180-141)
11/23 Virginia 2-3 (108-137)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 3-1 (134-126)
Comment: Are the Canes back? We’ll find out 11/2-9. If they win those games they could rise very swiftly in the rankings.
BAYLOR 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches: #15
10/12 at Kansas State 2-3 (156-122)
10/19 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
10/26 at Kansas 2-2 (74-101)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches: #10
11/16 Texas Tech 5-0 (209-69) at Arlington writers: #20, coaches: #21
11/23 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #22, coaches #20
11/30 at TCU 2-3 (140-111)
12/7 Texas 3-2 (162-140)
Comment: The Bears have scored 69, 70, 70 and 73 points in successive games! But they were against Wofford, Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe and defenseless West Virginia. We’ll know more about this crew when they meet three straight ranked teams in early November. Until then, they will continue to set scoring records.
MICHIGAN 5-0 (194-97) writers: #18, coaches: #16
10/12 at Penn State 3-2 (107-102)
10/19 Indiana 3-2 (221-155)
10/26 BYE
11/2 at Michigan State 4-1 (143-87)
11/9 Nebraska 4-1 (212-127) writers: not ranked, coaches: #24
11/16 at Northwestern 4-1 (195-135) writers: #19, coaches #18
11/23 at Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
11/30 Ohio State 6-0 (281-115) writer’s: #4, Coaches: #3
Comment: Another national power trying to make a comeback. But their remaining schedule, in which every team has a winning record three of them are ranked will make it difficult to make much headway this season.
TEXAS TECH 5-0 (209-69) writers: #20, coaches: #21
10/12 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
10/19 at West Virginia 3-3 (144-171)
10/26 at Oklahoma 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches #10
11/2 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100)
11/9 Kansas State 2-3 (156-127)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches: #15
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 3-2 (162-142)
Comment: The red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 5-0 (233-112) writers: #25, coaches: not ranked
10/12 at Georgia 4-1 (199-161) writers and coaches: #7
10/19 Florida 4-1 (125-61) writers and coaches: #17
10/26 South Carolina 4-1 (155-129) writers: #14, coaches #12
11/2 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-4 (115-128)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 3-2 (136-126)
11/30 Texas A&M 4-1 (246-154) writers and coaches: #9
Comment: The Tigers are off to a good start after a rough first season in the SEC. But they now come into the meat of their schedule and that’s what they’ll be when they finish with it: meat.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 5-0 (185-61) writers: #1, coaches: #1
10/12 at Kentucky 1-4 (115-128)
10/19 Arkansas 3-3 (156-141)
10/26 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 5-1 (273-148) writers: #10, coaches: #11
11/16 at Mississippi State 2-3 (162-118)
11/23 Chattanooga 3-2 (168-99)
11/30 at Auburn 4-1 (144-110)
Comment: The Tide should roll to a 12-0 regular season. Besides them there are six other SEC teams in the top 25: Georgia, Texas A&M, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Florida and Missouri. They’ve already beaten A&M and will play LSU at home. They don’t play the four others at all.
OREGON 5-0 (296-59) writers: #2, coaches: #2
10/12 at Washington 4-1 (187-74) writers: #16, coaches: #19
10/19 Washington State 4-2 (185-123)
10/26 UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11, coaches: #13
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
11/16 Utah 3-2 (195-131)
11/23 at Arizona 3-1 (145-57)
11/29 Oregon State 4-1 (208-158)
Comments: statistically, the Ducks are the most impressive team in the country. They have scored at least 55 points in every game and, despite playing with big leads, have given up fewer points than Alabama. But they haven’t played anybody any good yet, (Nicholls State, Virginia, Tennessee, California and Colorado). Unlike Alabama, they have a very bumpy ride coming up: seven straight games against teams with winning records, three of them ranked and two of those games on the road.
CLEMSON 5-0 (223-83) writers: #3 coaches: #4
10/12 Boston College 3-2 (137-134)
10/19 Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/26 at Maryland 4-1 (159-104)
11/2 at Virginia 2-3 (108-137)
11/9 BYE
11/14 Georgia Tech 3-2 (176-96)
11/23 the Citadel 2-4 (173-185)
11/30 at South Carolina 4-1 (155-129)
Comment: It’s all about the game two weeks from now in Death Valley-and about the rivalry game with a somewhat disappointing South Carolina at the end of the regular season. I don’t see anyone else holding the Tigers.
OHIO STATE 6-0 (281-115) writers: #4, coaches: #3
10/12 BYE
10/19 Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
10/26 Penn State 3-2 (157-102)
11/2 at Purdue 1-4 (85-183)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-2 (180-138)
11/23 Indiana 3-2 (221-155)
11/30 at Michigan 5-0 (194-97) writers: 18, coaches: #16
Comment: The Buckeyes have some challenges left but passed their biggest test in beating Wisconsin and Northwestern in a couple of terrific games. Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 18 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 22 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs.
STANFORD 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
10/12 at Utah 3-2 (195-131)
10/19 UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11, coaches: #13
10/26 at Oregon State 4-1 (208-158)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oregon 5-0 (296-59) writers & coaches: #2
11/16 at Southern California 3-2 (130-106)
11/23 California 1-4 (139-225)
11/30 Notre Dame 4-2 (164-153)
Comment: Like Oregon, the Cardinal, (black Cardinals?) are a long way from home with two games against unbeaten teams plus Notre Dame. But all those games are at home.
FLORIDA STATE 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/12 BYE
10/19 at Clemson 5-0 (223-83) writers: #3, coaches #4
10/26 North Carolina State 3-2 (138-105)
11/2 Miami 5-0 (226-80) writers: #13, coaches #14
11/9 at Wake Forest 3-3 (120-132)
11/16 Syracuse 2-3 (164-137)
11/23 Idaho 1-5 (93-254)
11/30 at Florida 4-1 (125-61) writers and coaches: #17
Comment: The Noles may be “back but they have some huge games coming up at Clemson and Florida and at home vs. Miami.
LOUISVILLE 5-0 (222-34) writers and coaches: #8
10/10 Rutgers 4-1 (200-138)
10/18 Central Florida 4-1 (159-83)
10/26 at South Florida 1-4 (84-171)
11/2 BYE
11/8 Connecticut 0-4 (72-130)
11/16 Houston 4-0 (174-80)
11/23 Memphis 1-3 (77-76)
11/30 BYE
12/5 at Cincinnati 3-2 (152-94)
Comment: Louisville has a great chance to run the table and they are ranked highly enough that if the teams above them all get dinged they could conceivably find themselves in the national title game. But I have a feeling there could be an upset hiding in the woods, from Rutgers, UCF or Houston or Cincinnati.
UCLA 4-0 (192-81) writers: #11 coaches: #13
10/12 California 1-4 (139-225)
10/19 at Stanford 5-0 (196-106) writers and coaches: #5
10/26 at Oregon 5-0 (296-59) writers and coaches: #2
11/2 Colorado 2-2 (112-150)
11/9 at Arizona 3-1 (145-57)
11/15 Washington 4-1 (187-41) writers: #16, coaches: #19
11/23 Arizona State 3-2 (193-168)
11/30 at Southern California 3-2 (130-106)
Comment: This is a coming program but I doubt they will be on this list in November.
OKLAHOMA 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches: #10
10/12 Texas 3-2 (162-142)
10/19 at Kansas 2-2 (74-101)
10/26 Texas Tech 5-0 (209-69) writers: #20, coaches: #21
11/2 BYE
11/7 Baylor 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches #15
11/16 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
11/23 at Kansas State 2-3 ( 156-122)
11/30 BYE
12/7 at Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #22, coaches #20
Comment: The Sooners have some good wins but they will need some more to finish undefeated and rise in the rankings. And they will need some help from others to get to a championship game.
MIAMI 5-0 (226-80) writers: #13, coaches: #14
10/12 BYE
10/17 at North Carolina 1-4 (118-157)
10/26 Wake Forest 3-3 (96-156)
11/2 at Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
11/9 Virginia Tech 5-1 (143-96) writers: #24, coaches: #25
11/16 at Duke 3-2 (180-141)
11/23 Virginia 2-3 (108-137)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 3-1 (134-126)
Comment: Are the Canes back? We’ll find out 11/2-9. If they win those games they could rise very swiftly in the rankings.
BAYLOR 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches: #15
10/12 at Kansas State 2-3 (156-122)
10/19 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
10/26 at Kansas 2-2 (74-101)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches: #10
11/16 Texas Tech 5-0 (209-69) at Arlington writers: #20, coaches: #21
11/23 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #22, coaches #20
11/30 at TCU 2-3 (140-111)
12/7 Texas 3-2 (162-140)
Comment: The Bears have scored 69, 70, 70 and 73 points in successive games! But they were against Wofford, Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe and defenseless West Virginia. We’ll know more about this crew when they meet three straight ranked teams in early November. Until then, they will continue to set scoring records.
MICHIGAN 5-0 (194-97) writers: #18, coaches: #16
10/12 at Penn State 3-2 (107-102)
10/19 Indiana 3-2 (221-155)
10/26 BYE
11/2 at Michigan State 4-1 (143-87)
11/9 Nebraska 4-1 (212-127) writers: not ranked, coaches: #24
11/16 at Northwestern 4-1 (195-135) writers: #19, coaches #18
11/23 at Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
11/30 Ohio State 6-0 (281-115) writer’s: #4, Coaches: #3
Comment: Another national power trying to make a comeback. But their remaining schedule, in which every team has a winning record three of them are ranked will make it difficult to make much headway this season.
TEXAS TECH 5-0 (209-69) writers: #20, coaches: #21
10/12 Iowa State 1-3 (109-107)
10/19 at West Virginia 3-3 (144-171)
10/26 at Oklahoma 5-0 (156-65) writers: #12, coaches #10
11/2 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100)
11/9 Kansas State 2-3 (156-127)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 4-0 (282-85) writers and coaches: #15
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 3-2 (162-142)
Comment: The red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 5-0 (233-112) writers: #25, coaches: not ranked
10/12 at Georgia 4-1 (199-161) writers and coaches: #7
10/19 Florida 4-1 (125-61) writers and coaches: #17
10/26 South Carolina 4-1 (155-129) writers: #14, coaches #12
11/2 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-4 (115-128)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 3-2 (136-126)
11/30 Texas A&M 4-1 (246-154) writers and coaches: #9
Comment: The Tigers are off to a good start after a rough first season in the SEC. But they now come into the meat of their schedule and that’s what they’ll be when they finish with it: meat.
