There Are Really 3 Elite Conferences

[TexanMark]

A really good read by the OP in this thread and his follow-up responses. Market and Brand helps but the ability to extort a large population into paying higher carriage fees for Conference Networks are key.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=600070

Cuse should be able to carry Upstate NY and 1M homes with higher carriage rates with an ACC Network but not sure we can't get NYC unless Notre Dame and UConn came in and helped. Rutgers would've help here...UConn can help in the future if picked.

Swofford screwed up expansion...Rutgers and Cuse (and probably UConn too) should've been picked first. BC screwed it up.

If Notre Dame doesn't go all in or ESPN doesn't overpay in the near term until the ACC Network gets up and running...we are screwed as a conference. An ESPN/ACC Network would help a few years down the road to bring in extra income. How much?? not sure but there is a lot of population in the ACC footprint.

 

[sufan]

A really good read by the OP in this thread and his follow-up responses. Market and Brand helps but the ability to extort a large population into paying higher carriage fees for Conference Networks are key.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=600070

Cuse should be able to carry Upstate NY and 1M homes with higher carriage rates with an ACC Network but not sure we can't get NYC unless Notre Dame and UConn came in and helped. Rutgers would've help here...UConn can help in the future if picked.

Swofford screwed up expansion...Rutgers and Cuse (and probably UConn too) should've been picked first. BC screwed it up.

If Notre Dame doesn't go all in or ESPN doesn't overpay in the near term until the ACC Network gets up and running...we are screwed as a conference. An ESPN/ACC Network would help a few years down the road to bring in extra income. How much?? not sure but there is a lot of population in the ACC footprint.

This is one of the most interesting posts I've read: everyone should read even if only to disagree.

I totally agree: the ACC could have added SU, Pitt, RU and UConn to BC and made the northeast its own:

Of course the ACC apparently lacked the consensus to move forward losing sight of the opportunity to add major universities in large, affluent northeast markets.

(Hopefully UConn is selected as team 14.)

 

[tipphill]

A really good read by the OP in this thread and his follow-up responses. Market and Brand helps but the ability to extort a large population into paying higher carriage fees for Conference Networks are key.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=600070

Cuse should be able to carry Upstate NY and 1M homes with higher carriage rates with an ACC Network but not sure we can't get NYC unless Notre Dame and UConn came in and helped. Rutgers would've help here...UConn can help in the future if picked.

Swofford screwed up expansion...Rutgers and Cuse (and probably UConn too) should've been picked first. BC screwed it up.

If Notre Dame doesn't go all in or ESPN doesn't overpay in the near term until the ACC Network gets up and running...we are screwed as a conference. An ESPN/ACC Network would help a few years down the road to bring in extra income. How much?? not sure but there is a lot of population in the ACC footprint.

some said at the time they should have taken ru as well as su and pitt---once again they were shouted down

 

[007]

Thanks Mark. I would easily put the post you referenced in the "must read" category. Especially for those who tend to make predictions about what will happen, or what is important, from the seat of their pants.

If his projections and analysis about conference Networks are correct, there is no doubt in my mind that realignment scenarios will unfold just as he suggested. I now also believe that Delany is a visionary in this regard, and that the B1G will certainly not stop at 14 teams.

I envision a 20 team league, with 4 pods of 5. The Eastern Pod could be PSU, Rutgers, Maryland, BC, and... please let it be SU. If part of the end game is maximize the attractiveness and quality of the teams for tier 3 broadcasts on the BTN, there is NO question that the East coast must be involved. This pod potentially delivers Philly, Boston, Baltimore/DC, and NYC/NYS carriage fees.

 

[Bayside44]

Soap opera stuff for middle aged men.

At some people schools need to play in conferences where they can reasonably compete in the sports that matter.

 

[PhatOrange]

Even if the ACC invited Rutgers and Uconn to 'lock up the Northeast' what would've prevented the Big 10 from coming in and taking whoever they wanted anyways? They just took Maryland.

 

[PhatOrange]

Also, I think if you include Upstate as Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown and all points in between it's more like 5 to 7 million homes.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

Even if the ACC invited Rutgers and Uconn to 'lock up the Northeast' what would've prevented the Big 10 from coming in and taking whoever they wanted anyways? They just took Maryland.

Right. As per Mark's header, there are only 3 elite conferences, if by elite one means unpoachable. The B1G, SEC and PAC are hunters and everyone else is prey.

I was supportive of the ACC taking all three of SU, UCONN and Rutgers but was told in no uncertain terms that this was a terrible idea so maybe it was.

 

[TexanMark]

Also, I think if you include Upstate as Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown and all points in between it's more like 5 to 7 million homes.

You're confusing homes with people, I used 1M on the lower end it might be closer to 2M homes (I used a 3.5 to 1 ratio) but trying to get a new ACC Network onto basic cable is the key...and I really think it is only certain higher carriage fees would be in the areas north of the Catskills.

 

[chakka3421]

Texanmark - actually I think in the TWC Upstate NY cluster are 3 million plus households as it extends to all of NY north of Poughkeepsie and parts of Western Mass. I dont have the exact number but it would be interesting to find out for sure. I dont think Syr/Upstate brings enough to the table $1 x 3 million basic cable per month = $36 million per year to B10 perhaps at best. Bigger fish to go after first before Syracuse is ever in play. Plus Syracuse is not an AAU member and a private college - doesnt fit the mold.

After calming down from earlier this week, I think Syracuse really has a good chance of being locked out in the end due to demographics alone. The only chance for the ACC to survive is to start its own network or ESPN has to give up its rights on the stranglehold it has on the ACC. If ESPN is quite satisfied with just having the SEC network survive, then the ACC is doomed.

 

[Fjoinkay]

Great read.

The level of uncertainty is very high right now for a lot of people.

One possibility which is far-fetched, but nothing is really far-fetched anymore, is the PAC-12 moving east. What if the PAC 12 decides it wants a far eastern division which includes the cable markets in NYC, Boston, Atlanta, DC, parts of Florida, parts of Georgia, parts of NC, parts of Pennsylvannia...? Who knows, maybe something like that could happen.

Maybe the SEC decides it wants into the NYC cable market. If theses conferences go beyond 16 to 20 members anything could happen, and even at 16 members SU is a link to NYC assuming a link is truly needed for one of these networks.

 

[Moontan]

I guess the question is, "Is it too late for an ACC Network?".

If a network is announced now to be started (maybe in limited form) next year, with financial estimates that place the ACC somewhere between XII and the B1G, would it be enough to keep the schools in the ACC. I believe it might for all but SEC invitations.

In the end, unless there are some strong football programs that emerge from outside the Big Five, neither the ACC nor the XII will be able to backfill when they are poached.

One can only wonder if the Big Three keep in mind that if they kill the rest of college football that they may not have any attractive OOC teams to play.

I'd prefer to see the Big Five survive similar to the way things are, though all with 12-16 teams, combined with an 8-team playoff. Maybe greed will have its limits.

 

[riskylogic]

My favorite post from that thread:

1. Conferences rally to create B1G like networks.
2. Subscriptions fees become top of mind to the average cable customer.
3. Political pressure creates the beginning of ala carte cable
4. Conference networks' profits plummet.
5. New phase of realignment.

 

[HtownOrange]

This is one of the most interesting posts I've read: everyone should read even if only to disagree.

I totally agree: the ACC could have added SU, Pitt, RU and UConn to BC and made the northeast its own:

Of course the ACC apparently lacked the consensus to move forward losing sight of the opportunity to add major universities in large, affluent northeast markets.

(Hopefully UConn is selected as team 14.)

The ACC was approached by the Big East and it was suggested that the two merge in football only thus owning the east coast football market and maintaining the separate hoops conferences. This would have worked out well and the teams now in the ACC would have already been together for 20 years. What could have been...

 

[tep624]

I beginning to wonder if the B1G's endgame is to lockup the Northeast. Lets face it, the Big 10's primary goal from day 1 in expansion was to get ND. The B1G's sees ND affiliate itself twice with conferences that have a strong NE base.

What's to say the B1G doesn't invite BC, Syracuse, Pitt, UCONN to go to 18, lockup the NE entirely, and completely eliminate the scheduling excuse that ND uses once and for all? From there it all comes down to $$ and TV negotiations to land ND.