This is a bad team right now

[Archbold44]

I don't think we're in disagreement on anything.

I guess I'm saying we have 9 chances to get at least 4 more wins, but other posters have already conceded a few of those chances.

I see 9 chances to get 4 wins. But if we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game... that is 4.5 wins = 6.5 wins. 6 wins, 5 losses... heading into BC. I think everyone would take that and run.

But let's say we have a 10% chance against Miami, a 20% chance against Ga Tech and ND, a 30% chance against SMU and Clemson... that is 1.1 wins (.1 + .2 + .2 + .3 + .3). For the remaining 4 games, if we have 90% chance of beating two and an 80% chance of beating the other two... that is .9 + .9 + .8 +.8 = 3.4 = 6.5 wins (3.4 + 1.1 + the 2 that we have). And that is being very generous... assuming we will give SMU/Clemson better games than, say, Duke and UNC will give us, etc.

Unless the wheels fall off for a few more ACC teams, we have a tough road to get to 7, much less 8 wins. Anything is possible. Clemson's QB could get hurt between now and the 2nd half. QB could lose their QB before or during our game. Who is Miami's back up QB? ND could be on QB#3 by that game. But so could we by then.

If we look at the teams as they are today... even thinking of a 7th win is actually pretty positive. Any combination of 5 wins out of 9 games is impressive somehow. 5-1 at home, 2-4 on the road/neutral? 6-0 at home, 1-5 on the road means an upset.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I see 9 chances to get 4 wins. But if we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game... that is 4.5 wins = 6.5 wins. 6 wins, 5 losses... heading into BC. I think everyone would take that and run.

But let's say we have a 10% chance against Miami, a 20% chance against Ga Tech and ND, a 30% chance against SMU and Clemson... that is 1.1 wins (.1 + .2 + .2 + .3 + .3). For the remaining 4 games, if we have 90% chance of beating two and an 80% chance of beating the other two... that is .9 + .9 + .8 +.8 = 3.4 = 6.5 wins (3.4 + 1.1 + the 2 that we have). And that is being very generous... assuming we will give SMU/Clemson better games than, say, Duke and UNC will give us, etc.

Unless the wheels fall off for a few more ACC teams, we have a tough road to get to 7, much less 8 wins. Anything is possible. Clemson's QB could get hurt between now and the 2nd half. QB could lose their QB before or during our game. Who is Miami's back up QB? ND could be on QB#3 by that game. But so could we by then.

If we look at the teams as they are today... even thinking of a 7th win is actually pretty positive. Any combination of 5 wins out of 9 games is impressive somehow. 5-1 at home, 2-4 on the road/neutral? 6-0 at home, 1-5 on the road means an upset.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I see 9 chances to get 4 wins. But if we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game... that is 4.5 wins = 6.5 wins. 6 wins, 5 losses... heading into BC. I think everyone would take that and run.

But let's say we have a 10% chance against Miami, a 20% chance against Ga Tech and ND, a 30% chance against SMU and Clemson... that is 1.1 wins (.1 + .2 + .2 + .3 + .3). For the remaining 4 games, if we have 90% chance of beating two and an 80% chance of beating the other two... that is .9 + .9 + .8 +.8 = 3.4 = 6.5 wins (3.4 + 1.1 + the 2 that we have). And that is being very generous... assuming we will give SMU/Clemson better games than, say, Duke and UNC will give us, etc.

Unless the wheels fall off for a few more ACC teams, we have a tough road to get to 7, much less 8 wins. Anything is possible. Clemson's QB could get hurt between now and the 2nd half. QB could lose their QB before or during our game. Who is Miami's back up QB? ND could be on QB#3 by that game. But so could we by then.

If we look at the teams as they are today... even thinking of a 7th win is actually pretty positive. Any combination of 5 wins out of 9 games is impressive somehow. 5-1 at home, 2-4 on the road/neutral? 6-0 at home, 1-5 on the road means an upset.

In what world are those home probabilities even remotely accurate?

 

[ADKDave]

We should improve. We play two freshmen linebackers and a freshman defensive back. The other corner is a sophomore and our experienced safety has missed the past two games. We still have not seen two of our second string receivers. Our best running back didn’t play against Colgate and our starting quarterback has started four games in his career. I think this bodes well the rest of the season. All these guys should get better. Our starting offensive lines still hasn’t played two games together. Will the schedule be tough? Yes, but stop all the doom and gloom.

Later in the season they aren’t freshman anymore, they’re sophomores -
Jim Boeheim

 

[CanadianSU]

Just have to tread water. But honestly Clemson isn’t good, and it should be close.

 

[Nahson]

The team has issues but it seems like a lot of posters do not think the team will improve week to week. Not saying others teams won’t but we are young or have late transfer at a number of positions. The more they play the better the team will get.
Fran does not accept mediocrity. He will continue to work to fix the issues. On the Oline losing Mack has hurt. Maybe they move spoon back to LT. Pringle looked okay at RT. He is a redshirt freshman. Washington did well. Only a freshman and lower comp but positive sign going forward for the season. Collins and Ferguson were late additions to the line. More reps and hopefully they gel.
Robinson has been bringing more pressure the last couple of games. Still need improvement. Again our starting LBs are a late transfer and a freshman. A sign things will improve. Same at cb.
I am not expecting a vast improvement Saturday but as the season goes on I could see lots of improvement in the areas of weakness.

What have you seen from ERob’s defense that gives you confidence it will improve from week to week? The sample size seems large enough, at this point. The same things that happened last year, are happening again this year.

I think that’s my biggest point of contention. Do I think Angeli is great? No, but that’s okay. There’s only a handful of “good/great” college QBs and I think Angeli is largely average. I also think my criticism of him this year is unfair. He shouldn’t have to throw almost 60 times against UCONN, to keep our head above water. That is a job for Kyle McCord, who I think did a better job of keeping heat of ERob, then he did making Nixon look like an offensive guru.

Also, as much as I love to bash ERob, Dale Williams should be catching the same amount of heat. Had Angeli seeing ghosts against UCONN. Is our O-Linemen that bad? Maybe. Or maybe there should be accountability for their development. Talking about having a 10 guys ready to play, how about we start with 5? Purdue fans tried to tell us.

Fran would have to kick a puppy in a Georgetown hoody for me to sour on him (Nixon too) but he needs to address these two in some way, shape or form. I honestly wouldn’t even be opposed to bringing in someone more experienced to help ERob, under the guise of some made up Assistant position, sort of along the lines of what Doug Marrone was doing at Boston College.

 

[GoSU96]

What have you seen from ERob’s defense that gives you confidence it will improve from week to week? The sample size seems large enough, at this point. The same things that happened last year, are happening again this year.

I think that’s my biggest point of contention. Do I think Angeli is great? No, but that’s okay. There’s only a handful of “good/great” college QBs and I think Angeli is largely average. I also think my criticism of him this year is unfair. He shouldn’t have to throw almost 60 times against UCONN, to keep our head above water. That is a job for Kyle McCord, who I think did a better job of keeping heat of ERob, then he did making Nixon look like an offensive guru.

Also, as much as I love to bash ERob, Dale Williams should be catching the same amount of heat. Had Angeli seeing ghosts against UCONN. Is our O-Linemen that bad? Maybe. Or maybe there should be accountability for their development. Talking about having a 10 guys ready to play, how about we start with 5? Purdue fans tried to tell us.

Fran would have to kick a puppy in a Georgetown hoody for me to sour on him (Nixon too) but he needs to address these two in some way, shape or form. I honestly wouldn’t even be opposed to bringing in someone more experienced to help ERob, under the guise of some made up Assistant position, sort of along the lines of what Doug Marrone was doing at Boston College.

Uh, Kevin Coyle is on staff.

 

[Blanko97]

In what world are those home probabilities even remotely accurate?

i dont think the goal is accuracy, i think its just a "here's what you'd need to believe" thing

 

[wiseman3]

Just finished my rewatch of the game. I can't believe anyone who watched this is taking anything negative away from the game or drawing conclusions about the team. The 1st half with the starters (and lots of 2nd stringers) was pure domination. The only time Colgate even got close to scoring position was the Will Nixon fumble and 2 incredible catches on a drive that still resulted in no points. I can't find the 1st have yardage stats, but Colgate had to have had something like maybe 100 or less? Offense was close to perfect minus a few drops.

Also, their TE hybrid Reed Swanson is an absolute beast ( Fran better make an offer to him, would be a great Villari replacement). I basically take nothing away from the second half defensive performance. We were rotating depth guys constantly. And frankly the game was over. I know we'd like us to have a killer instinct; but I give the guys a pass in an emptying building with the game in hand. Moving on to Clemson

Also: Angeli was almost perfect. 8 incompletions, of which was 3 bad drops, one drop ( tough catch but catchable and hit Gills hands), 1 arm hit, 1 pass defended

Anyone criticizing him after this game( not many but I've seen a few) is insane. He was money all game

 

[Millhouse]

Syracuse loses a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball after a really good season and somehow many expect them to be as good as the previous season. Just doesn't work that way at Syracuse. They were never going to be as good as last year and the defense stunk last year with more talent.

The 3 best years 2012, 2018, 2024 all had really good seniors that we simply can't replace the next year.

Give me really good years and in between I don't really care if it's 4 or 6 wins because they're both boring

 

[wfschrec]

Do you think things might be a little different for them playing a conference foe that they feel has somehow played them tough even when they shouldn't have?

Silly to even make the comparison.

Coming off a loss where they were repeatedly called Death Valley JR by half the SEC I would have expected some fire. You forget we haven’t beaten them since 2017 and haven’t looked great thus far this season. Conf rival is funny … they care more about their game with USC east than they do I us I can assure you.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Coming off a loss where they were repeatedly called Death Valley JR by half the SEC I would have expected some fire. You forget we haven’t beaten them since 2017 and haven’t looked great thus far this season. Conf rival is funny … they care more about their game with USC east than they do I us I can assure you.

I haven't forgotten anything, and I know people close to the Clemson program. If they don't come out with their hair on fire, I'll be shocked.

 

[wfschrec]

I haven't forgotten anything, and I know people close to the Clemson program. If they don't come out with their hair on fire, I'll be shocked.

Well I hope you’re wrong and quite frankly have yet to see anecdotal evidence of them having their hair on fire since losing to LSU. Isn’t GT a conf rival too, how did that work out? If they beat us it’s simply because they played better than we did. Their running game lacks fire, Woods and Parker aren’t playing with any passion and have looked flat. It’s like Desmond Howard every weekend saying “I spent time with this team and they are locked in.” Same quote he used before our Miami game last year. Let’s see how they come out before declaring a falling sky, hell we start slow anyway LOL.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It will be interesting to see where the D ends the year in YPP for FBS games. Things could be worse, but they could be a lot better too.


7.21 - 2016
6.66 - 2017
6.38 - 2019
6.35 - 2024
6.23 - 2025
5.99 - 2018
5.82 - 2020
5.58 - 2023
5.30 - 2021
5.07 - 2022

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Well I hope you’re wrong and quite frankly have yet to see anecdotal evidence of them having their hair on fire since losing to LSU. Isn’t GT a conf rival too, how did that work out? If they beat us it’s simply because they played better than we did. Their running game lacks fire, Woods and Parker aren’t playing with any passion and have looked flat. It’s like Desmond Howard every weekend saying “I spent time with this team and they are locked in.” Same quote he used before our Miami game last year. Let’s see how they come out before declaring a falling sky, hell we start slow anyway LOL.

Oh, I hope I'm wrong too. It would be great to come out, punch them in the mouth, and set them back on their heels. Then you might see some real panic and things starting to crumble. If we start out passive like we did against TN and let Klubnik get in a rhythm because he "hasn't been good" (everyone at this level is "good" if you sit back and give them time), we're toast.

Attack, attack, attack on both sides. Get the ball out of Angeli's hands quickly with some short throws and scheme our guys into space away from the pressure they will be bringing. Attack the edges. Don't defer if you win the toss. Don't go for many long passes against this D-line and secondary unless the defense is being kept honest and on their heels.

 

[wfschrec]

Oh, I hope I'm wrong too. It would be great to come out, punch them in the mouth, and set them back on their heels. Then you might see some real panic and things starting to crumble. If we start out passive like we did against TN and let Klubnik get in a rhythm because he "hasn't been good" (everyone at this level is "good" if you sit back and give them time), we're toast.

Attack, attack, attack on both sides. Get the ball out of Angeli's hands quickly with some short throws and scheme our guys into space away from the pressure they will be bringing. Attack the edges. Don't defer if you win the toss. Don't go for many long passes against this D-line and secondary unless the defense is being kept honest and on their heels.

I'd run the ball right at Heldt and try to take him out of the game, of the front four he has played by far the best on the DL.

 

[JKinUtah]

we should just pack it in now and forfeit the rest of the schedule...clearly we aren't up to facing the juggernaut in front of us. The worst 2-1 team I've ever seen anywhere, ever.

 

[bigmike]

The probability on winning any these games as we all know flips on any key injuries (e.g. quarterback). If Angeli stays healthy, and their guy (on any of our opponents) does not, the calculus around 6 wins can change dramatically. Having said that, if our OL doesn’t play well this weekend, we may be looking at 2 wins as a ceiling.

 

[sufandu]

In the infamous words of Bill Parcels, "You are what your record says you are."

That's one of the most over quoted lines in the history of sports and has little to do with college, considering how unbalanced the schedules are.

 

[NKR1978]

we should just pack it in now and forfeit the rest of the schedule...clearly we aren't up to facing the juggernaut in front of us. The worst 2-1 team I've ever seen anywhere, ever.

I felt great about the team on Friday night and now reading this I don't know what I'm missing. The last 5 minutes of the UConn game through the first was really good football. Colgate's 0-3 but lost tight games to FCS powers and thought we looked exponentially better against them than we did against a worse Holy Cross last year.

 

[Nahson]

Uh, Kevin Coyle is on staff.

Welp, that makes me sad then…

 

[wfschrec]

I felt great about the team on Friday night and now reading this I don't know what I'm missing. The last 5 minutes of the UConn game through the first was really good football. Colgate's 0-3 but lost tight games to FCS powers and thought we looked exponentially better against them than we did against a worse Holy Cross last year.

Its not what you're missing ... its what he is missing. He forgot the sarcasm font.

 

[NKR1978]

Its not what you're missing ... its what he is missing. He forgot the sarcasm font.

I knew he was joking, I'm not quite that dense.