This is why Pre-season rankings are a joke | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

This is why Pre-season rankings are a joke

I've been a STAUNCH believer there shouldn't be rankings until week 3 or 4 in Football or Basketball for many reasons. Most of them being it sets an unfair ranking that teams have to climb that were arbitrary from a previous season to begin with and that is incredibly unequitable. I feel very strongly about this 😂

Basketball is not really an issue for preseason rankings - there are so many more OOC and head to head games, for metrics to build off. Football has a problem though, because preaseason biases don't have a full sample of games to wipe them off.

NET has weaknesses but it has zero preseason bias once released.
 
Easy. Completely disregard the score of games. You play to win the game. Not to win by 20 plus or whatever it is. So many factors can go into the final score. Did you win or did you not? Keep it simple.
Let's see your top-50 teams ranked by wins.
 
Should be super easy for you to put together a better system.

I will wait.

Now I know for a fact that DomeHolmes didn't intentionally put out wrong numbers, but some were. He's not acting in bad faith in his post, but understanding the various nuances of NET is not easy.

It doesn't help when you don't fully understand the system...not that 100% understand it, but I have spent lots of time in my opinion trying to get there (its my numbers escape that I use to take up time in my life to keep my head working) ... knowing how to measure conference performance, strengths, weaknesses, potentially gaming / not gaming.

That being said I have two solutions to an improvement of NET that I will poster tonight or tomorrow.
 
We had the RPI that tried to do that before and it spit out a lot of junk. Its hard to measure 365 teams without bringing in margin into play, and things like KP and NET are probably ranking teams better at the end. But its still flawed.

I have a few potential solutions for a revamped NET that I think would be better based on what I have learned as the flaws and strengths of various systems. I'm intrigued by Bartorvik's Quality of Record metric that only focuses on W-L, but even that one has to have a margin based system influencing it to a degree from behind it to not spit out total jibberish.. but that's OK if sone properly.

I'll expand on those tomorrow or tonight.
Agree. The RPI was terrible. We were screwed with that metric a few years in the 90’s and 2000’s.
 
Let's see your top-50 teams ranked by wins.
If we were to take a team like UConn as an example, what should we take more away from, that they beat Kansas and Illinois, or that they stomped Columbia by 37? When you are the clearly superior team it is easier to run up the score with momentum, the other team mentally checking out since winning is hopeless, the losing team subbing out starters because it is not worth it to have them get hurt, etc. Meanwhile you can keep your starters in and run it up right until the final whistle. I am far more impressed by the closer wins against other teams that have beat quality teams than stomping a team that was dead from the start.

When a system values stomping a clearly inferior team then that system can be easily gamed. We have this big trend of teams scheduling a lot more cupcakes in the early season as a result. I want a system that moves away from their being incentive to crush a bunch of cupcakes in your OOC. It was flawed before but IMO less flawed than this current model. You play to win the game, not to win it by a certain score.
 
So why is Kentucky #31 in the NET. I'm just showing why that rank makes sense under NET, not justifying NET itself. As Kentucky at #31 shows some limits of NET.

Numerically its pretty easy to find the two games that skewed things way in their favour.

P5 teams are generally beating teams ranked between #180 and #220 in KP by about 15 to 20 points this year. I don't have the exact average but its somewhere between the two. Those teams are far tougher to destroy a Binghamton or a Delaware St, and NET rewards you more for beating them by 50 than say a Binghamton or Delaware St.

Kentucky beat Tennessee Tech by 50 points and Valparaiso by 48 points, which is way above what a normal P5 does against that level of opponent.

(I WILL CONTINUE THIS LATER HAVE TO RUN -
 
So why is Kentucky #31 in the NET. I'm just showing why that rank makes sense under NET, not justifying NET itself. As Kentucky at #31 shows some limits of NET.

Numerically its pretty easy to find the two games that skewed things way in their favour.

P5 teams are generally beating teams ranked between #180 and #220 in KP by about 15 to 20 points this year. I don't have the exact average but its somewhere between the two. Those teams are far tougher to destroy a Binghamton or a Delaware St, and NET rewards you more for beating them by 50 than say a Binghamton or Delaware St.

Kentucky beat Tennessee Tech by 50 points and Valparaiso by 48 points, which is way above what a normal P5 does against that level of opponent.

(I WILL CONTINUE THIS LATER HAVE TO RUN -

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! for the continuing tutorial and your patience. I enjoy all of your posts.
 
Now I know for a fact that DomeHolmes didn't intentionally put out wrong numbers, but some were. He's not acting in bad faith in his post, but understanding the various nuances of NET is not easy.

It doesn't help when you don't fully understand the system...not that 100% understand it, but I have spent lots of time in my opinion trying to get there (its my numbers escape that I use to take up time in my life to keep my head working) ... knowing how to measure conference performance, strengths, weaknesses, potentially gaming / not gaming.

That being said I have two solutions to an improvement of NET that I will poster tonight or tomorrow.
You do a lot of good here, patiently explaining the systems, but IMO, you're screaming into the void for the most vocal posters. These threads pop up every season and a lot of the same people post in them: why is Team A ranked here and not there when Team B is ranked this way. This is bullshit. And it would be a lot easier if there were no nuance.

Of course it would be great if there was no nuance. Over what? the last two decades? these ranking algorithms (and I mean NET, KP, Torvik, Evan Miya, etc.) have shown themselves to be the best solutions to the problem of sorting out 360+ D1 college basketball teams who play different schedules and opponents at different times of the season. They aren't perfect, and there will always be weird results that don't match perfectly to what was expected based on the rankings.

This isn't baseball with 30 teams playing 162 games against each other (nearly 5,000 total games) over 6 months to sort out 12 for a month of playoffs. And people still complain about baseball playoff seeding.

If the solutions are so easy, as one poster commented, then they should have at it and show their work. Back test it and show how the ranking systems were the worst and their system worked so much better. That's how this works. Build a better mousetrap.

For me, the rankings are a general guide. Nothing more and nothing less. They reflect a moment in time and then adjust with new data. They do a solid job of sorting good teams from not so good teams and they're not really used to decide anything until Selection Sunday. I understand this is a thread about preseason rankings, which sure, they're worthless, but they're also not really used for anything other than getting some people on the internet upset.
 
If we were to take a team like UConn as an example, what should we take more away from, that they beat Kansas and Illinois, or that they stomped Columbia by 37? When you are the clearly superior team it is easier to run up the score with momentum, the other team mentally checking out since winning is hopeless, the losing team subbing out starters because it is not worth it to have them get hurt, etc. Meanwhile you can keep your starters in and run it up right until the final whistle. I am far more impressed by the closer wins against other teams that have beat quality teams than stomping a team that was dead from the start.

When a system values stomping a clearly inferior team then that system can be easily gamed. We have this big trend of teams scheduling a lot more cupcakes in the early season as a result. I want a system that moves away from their being incentive to crush a bunch of cupcakes in your OOC. It was flawed before but IMO less flawed than this current model. You play to win the game, not to win it by a certain score.
by wins, Siena is tied with 7 others for the No. 2 team in the country. They have 9 D1 wins. They should handily beat NC State who only have 6 D1 wins.
 
I would say more than a little flawed. For example, this week:

Kentucky got destroyed by Gonzaga in what was essentially a home game even though it’s “neutral” and they actually moved up from 39 to 30! This defies every so-called rule of how you move up and down in the NET.

Gonzaga got destroyed by 40 by Michigan and their NET changed from 2 to 4! 2 spots.

Purdue got blown out at home by Iowa State and they went from 4 to 9.

We got blown out at a neutral site on 20 hours rest by the same Iowa State team, and we dropped like 30 or 40 points?

We actually dropped more places today because Tennessee lost yesterday, than Gonzaga or Purdue drops for getting destroyed in games they actually played.

I maintain that it’s a stupid system that’s flawed beyond belief.
each and every season should start with a blank slate...the only way some of these rankings make any sense is that they weighting previous seasons results into the metrics...which is beyond unfair. even if it helps the rankings predict more accurately, what happened in previous years should not be included.

now - what are you making? a prediction system for sports betting ? or a fair way of ranking teams for tournament selection? makes a huge difference

i also really cannot stand the way we now know how many bids each conference is likely to receive before conference play starts...conference play is much more important than early season games (and also much more indicative of how good a team really is)...

i really dont see what was so bad about the old system before NET...I think it was better than what we have now
 
So why is Kentucky #31 in the NET. I'm just showing why that rank makes sense under NET, not justifying NET itself. As Kentucky at #31 shows some limits of NET.

Numerically its pretty easy to find the two games that skewed things way in their favour.

P5 teams are generally beating teams ranked between #180 and #220 in KP by about 15 to 20 points this year. I don't have the exact average but its somewhere between the two. Those teams are far tougher to destroy a Binghamton or a Delaware St, and NET rewards you more for beating them by 50 than say a Binghamton or Delaware St.

Kentucky beat Tennessee Tech by 50 points and Valparaiso by 48 points, which is way above what a normal P5 does against that level of opponent.

(I WILL CONTINUE THIS LATER HAVE TO RUN -
And that's everything wrong with the NET right there. If destroying bad teams was indicative of how good you will perform against good ones, Kentucky would have actually won one of these tough matchups by now. Instead they lost close ones to UNC and Louisville and got worked by Gonzaga and Michigan state. Shows the overly skewed value in scheduling cupcakes and destroying them with the NET.
 
Should be super easy for you to put together a better system.

I will wait.
Not sure why you’d make such a douchey comment. I was simply pointing out obvious flaws in it. If you can’t see the nonsense in some of the rankings, then that’s fine. I’m not sure why you would make it personal. Maybe you’re just an A hole.

Who did you play? Who did you beat? Did you challenge yourself? Did you beat a bunch of cupcakes and have an inflated record? That’s the way it always was. Then came the RPI, which at least was a better system but still overvalued mid majors without marquee wins.

Now the measure of a good team is beating the living hell out of over matched cupcakes. To the point where your 11th 12th 13th men and walk ons don’t even play anymore and you humiliate teams by running up the score. Without even a win against a power 5 team. Yeah, that’s a great system.

The NET might’ve fooled you into believing the Mountain West had 4 worthy tournament teams last year, plus the last one out, but not me.
 
I'm not sure where you are getting some of your numbers from, but unfortunately they are not accurate.

#1. Kentucky was #15 in NET at the start of last week when they were first released. They have fell down to #31. They never increased in the rankings... not sure where you are getting their rise from #39 to #30 after a loss. For sure that would have been crazy - but it never actually happened. (I will comment on their #31 ranking in a separate post)

#2. When Gonzaga played Michigan the NET had yet to be even be released.
When Syracuse played Iowa ST the NET had yet to be revealed.
I'm not sure where you are getting how much they rise and fell from.

#3. Regarding Purdue's fall versus our fall. Think of a Standard Distribution Curve. Gaps between teams at the end of the curves are longer than those towards the middle.

Using KP.
From #1-#10, teams ADJ EM's range from 27 to 36 (a difference of nine)

From #40-93, teams range from 8 to 17 (a difference of nine). When you are closer to the middle teams are a bit more bunched up.

Purdue was hurt just as much in terms of their "NET Score" after losing to Iowa St as we did losing to Iowa St. But we are in the more packed area towards the middle of the curve, with many more teams with a closer score to us due the factor noted above. So our rank will fall more spots in a bad result. That being said we can also rise much farther when we do good things than Purdue. I have to use "NET Score" because they don't put a number for NET like KP. But you can observe it in KP.

There is also the sample factor... we are still only at 8 games so extreme results still get magnified more than they would after 31 games.

#4. The differences between teams ranked in any range of 10, as we get towards the middle are not that big. You will move a few spots back and forth as teams play around you especially when its still a sample of games played. (8 of 31). For example in KP, team #59 is 13.8, team #67 is 13.2... teams are going to move around there at a whim.

Again I'm not a 100% defender of the NET, but i try to take a balanced view of understanding its impacts, its "good", its weaknesses (Q4 margin outliers). Philosophically it’s more important that conference mates take advantage of their NET than a team does its ow

I'm not sure where you are getting some of your numbers from, but unfortunately they are not accurate.

#1. Kentucky was #15 in NET at the start of last week when they were first released. They have fell down to #31. They never increased in the rankings... not sure where you are getting their rise from #39 to #30 after a loss. For sure that would have been crazy - but it never actually happened. (I will comment on their #31 ranking in a separate post)

#2. When Gonzaga played Michigan the NET had yet to be even be released.
When Syracuse played Iowa ST the NET had yet to be revealed.
I'm not sure where you are getting how much they rise and fell from.

#3. Regarding Purdue's fall versus our fall. Think of a Standard Distribution Curve. Gaps between teams at the end of the curves are longer than those towards the middle.

Using KP.
From #1-#10, teams ADJ EM's range from 27 to 36 (a difference of nine)

From #40-93, teams range from 8 to 17 (a difference of nine). When you are closer to the middle teams are a bit more bunched up.

Purdue was hurt just as much in terms of their "NET Score" after losing to Iowa St as we did losing to Iowa St. But we are in the more packed area towards the middle of the curve, with many more teams with a closer score to us due the factor noted above. So our rank will fall more spots in a bad result. That being said we can also rise much farther when we do good things than Purdue. I have to use "NET Score" because they don't put a number for NET like KP. But you can observe it in KP.

There is also the sample factor... we are still only at 8 games so extreme results still get magnified more than they would after 31 games.

#4. The differences between teams ranked in any range of 10, as we get towards the middle are not that big. You will move a few spots back and forth as teams play around you especially when its still a sample of games played. (8 of 31). For example in KP, team #59 is 13.8, team #67 is 13.2... teams are going to move around there at a whim.

Again I'm not a 100% defender of the NET, but i try to take a balanced view of understanding its impacts, its "good", its weaknesses (Q4 margin outliers). Philosophically its more important that conference mates take advantage of their NET than a team does its own.
Take a look at Kentucky. Yesterday’s NET rankings had their previous ranking of 39, and it dropped to 30. I don’t know if you can go a day back, but it clearly says that. Kentucky lost on the fifth. According to the NET rankings on the sixth, they were ranked 39th and on the seventh they were ranked 30th. They did not play another game in between to boost their ranking.

Gonzaga rose from 2 to 4. So somehow they were #2 in the initial ranking, (or the ranking as of 2 days ago), despite getting destroyed by 40 neutral, and then moved to #4 after destroying Kentucky? the logic still does not make sense. It’s backwards.

Your statement about Purdue in bold letters makes a lot of sense though and explains a lot.

Thank you
 
Last edited:
Easy. Completely disregard the score of games. You play to win the game. Not to win by 20 plus or whatever it is. So many factors can go into the final score. Did you win or did you not? Keep it simple.
Exactly. To me net is like factoring in total yards or first downs into a football teams success. Fortunately Notre Dame curb stomping us did not improve their “metrics” in football, where it’s still “who did you play, who did you beat”
 
Not sure why you’d make such a douchey comment. I was simply pointing out obvious flaws in it. If you can’t see the nonsense in some of the rankings, then that’s fine. I’m not sure why you would make it personal. Maybe you’re just an A hole.

Who did you play? Who did you beat? Did you challenge yourself? Did you beat a bunch of cupcakes and have an inflated record? That’s the way it always was. Then came the RPI, which at least was a better system but still overvalued mid majors without marquee wins.

Now the measure of a good team is beating the living hell out of over matched cupcakes. To the point where your 11th 12th 13th men and walk ons don’t even play anymore and you humiliate teams by running up the score. Without even a win against a power 5 team. Yeah, that’s a great system.

The NET might’ve fooled you into believing the Mountain West had 4 worthy tournament teams last year, plus the last one out, but not me.


1. NCAA teams are still selected based on who you played and who you beat so from a Syracuse perspective I don't get worried about NET outliers, especially early in the season when a few outliwer games skew things.

Your individual NET will not be the reason you get in or get out (one could argue there a few exceptions the last 7 years of NET). Its the same as individual RPI - it was never the reason teams got in, or got out. We have got into the NCAA with both a poor NET and poor RPI since our "bubble" era started in 2015, because of the quality of our wins.

It came down to the quality of wins / how many you get / avoiding bad losses.

2. The NET is more skewed early. There is always an incentive to run up the score, which is problematic (it helps the conference more than you), but those outliers even out more as the season goes on, although they don't fully go away eithe.

3. Do teams challenge themselves less under the new system? It depends .. yes (see b) and no (see a)

a) The play just as many Q1/Q2 games as the did in the past. So in that regard they challenge themselves with tough games just as much, it might even be a bit more.

b) Under RPI, P5 would try to target teams in that Q3 range, or top half of Q4. Teams in that 125-200 range. That is because that was how you gamed the RPI -- or avoided getting destroyed by it Playing sub 300 teams, or even worse the bottom 10% at 330 or worse would crush your RPI.

Under NET you target those sub 300 teams.

Either way you were just targeting teams that are fairly sure wins -- one that would help the RPI the most or one that would help NET the most. So you just have to 2 buckets of games that were

I would prefer seeing teams play teams in the 125-200 and avoid the Miss Valley St's and Delaware St's, who had a much harder time finding buy games at the end of the RPI era. To me the biggest flaw in the NET is the scheduling compared to the RPI, but I still think NET might spit out numbers in the end. Its close though. Either way they are still relatively easy win games that shouldn't impact whether you get in or not.

4. I still think the best teams that come out of NET at the end of the year (Top 10) are going to be best teams. You might be able to get your NET up from 40 to 30 by beating the hell out of teams, which is a flaw, its not going to get the absolute best too wrong.

5. As for the MWC, interestingly they did better under RPI last year than NET based on my scanning of Warren Nolan. Under RPI they probably get 4 teams in as well last ear, As I said before understanding the MWC is a little tricky, and I can't stay I have fully grasped it.

6. As I said last year my one solution for a better ranking system, to at least encourage better scheduling is the following:

Let's change NET to
a) 50 % of current NET
b) 50% of former RPI

The two systems have strengths and obvious weaknesses. But those weaknesses offset each other -- and they are both managed very differently in terms of scheduling. Which is my they are good complements of each other if you want to combine them,
 
And that's everything wrong with the NET right there. If destroying bad teams was indicative of how good you will perform against good ones, Kentucky would have actually won one of these tough matchups by now. Instead they lost close ones to UNC and Louisville and got worked by Gonzaga and Michigan state. Shows the overly skewed value in scheduling cupcakes and destroying them with the NET.
Excellent point.
 
Kentucky is now 5-4 after being destroyed by Gonzaga last night. Their other three losses were all to ranked teams. Their wins were against non-Power 5 (including Big East) teams. One of those losses was a blowout and the other was by 8, yet they were 18th coming into last night's game. Essentially, their season tracks exactly with Cuse's up until last night and they were STILL in the Top 20!
I think the mistake being made is thinking the first rankings of the season are perfection and won't change after games are played. They are functioning exactly the way as intended.
 
Take a look at Kentucky. Yesterday’s NET rankings had their previous ranking of 39, and it dropped to 30. I don’t know if you can go a day back, but it clearly says that. Kentucky lost on the fifth. According to the NET rankings on the sixth, they were ranked 39th and on the seventh they were ranked 30th. They did not play another game in between to boost their ranking.

Gonzaga rose from 2 to 4. So somehow they were #2 in the initial ranking, (or the ranking as of 2 days ago), despite getting destroyed by 40 neutral, and then moved to #4 after destroying Kentucky? the logic still does not make sense. It’s backwards.

Your statement about Purdue in bold letters makes a lot of sense though and explains a lot.

Thank you

I looked into Kentucky. You certainly observed an oddity from #39 to #30. that I am struggling to explain. But it wasn't from the 35 point loss.

So I found this NCAA site updates NET's after every day. Actually has some good data as well beyond NET.

The day before the Gonzaga game Kentucky was #19 on December 4th. After they lost, they fell to #39 on December 5th. This makes sense. But after not playing on December 6th, they increased from #39 to #30 which is hard to make sense of.

Moving from #39 to #30 after not even playing is certainly odd. I wonder if its a system delay on various components of NET, because it is odd. Maybe all the teams they had played this season did very well on Saturday, but even then going from 39 to 30 is odd when not playing.

 
I think the mistake being made is thinking the first rankings of the season are perfection and won't change after games are played. They are functioning exactly the way as intended.

That's a very solid point. NET is meant to "try" to measure teams after 31 games, and not 8 games. You will some see a bit of early on if the team had 1 or 2 aberration type games.

I don't get too worked up about individual NET's this early. That being said, I very closely track OOC performance both W-L's and margin, because that factor in itself will start to drive up NET's (And Q1's and Q2's) when conference teams starting playing each other.

Good thing for Syracuse, is that while ACC is #4, its generally hanging in there with the other 3.
 
1. NCAA teams are still selected based on who you played and who you beat so from a Syracuse perspective I don't get worried about NET outliers, especially early in the season when a few outliwer games skew things.

Your individual NET will not be the reason you get in or get out (one could argue there a few exceptions the last 7 years of NET). Its the same as individual RPI - it was never the reason teams got in, or got out. We have got into the NCAA with both a poor NET and poor RPI since our "bubble" era started in 2015, because of the quality of our wins.

It came down to the quality of wins / how many you get / avoiding bad losses.

2. The NET is more skewed early. There is always an incentive to run up the score, which is problematic (it helps the conference more than you), but those outliers even out more as the season goes on, although they don't fully go away eithe.

3. Do teams challenge themselves less under the new system? It depends .. yes (see b) and no (see a)

a) The play just as many Q1/Q2 games as the did in the past. So in that regard they challenge themselves with tough games just as much, it might even be a bit more.

b) Under RPI, P5 would try to target teams in that Q3 range, or top half of Q4. Teams in that 125-200 range. That is because that was how you gamed the RPI -- or avoided getting destroyed by it Playing sub 300 teams, or even worse the bottom 10% at 330 or worse would crush your RPI.

Under NET you target those sub 300 teams.

Either way you were just targeting teams that are fairly sure wins -- one that would help the RPI the most or one that would help NET the most. So you just have to 2 buckets of games that were

I would prefer seeing teams play teams in the 125-200 and avoid the Miss Valley St's and Delaware St's, who had a much harder time finding buy games at the end of the RPI era. To me the biggest flaw in the NET is the scheduling compared to the RPI, but I still think NET might spit out numbers in the end. Its close though. Either way they are still relatively easy win games that shouldn't impact whether you get in or not.

4. I still think the best teams that come out of NET at the end of the year (Top 10) are going to be best teams. You might be able to get your NET up from 40 to 30 by beating the hell out of teams, which is a flaw, its not going to get the absolute best too wrong.

5. As for the MWC, interestingly they did better under RPI last year than NET based on my scanning of Warren Nolan. Under RPI they probably get 4 teams in as well last ear, As I said before understanding the MWC is a little tricky, and I can't stay I have fully grasped it.

6. As I said last year my one solution for a better ranking system, to at least encourage better scheduling is the following:

Let's change NET to
a) 50 % of current NET
b) 50% of former RPI

The two systems have strengths and obvious weaknesses. But those weaknesses offset each other -- and they are both managed very differently in terms of scheduling. Which is my they are good complements of each other if you want to combine them,
Good info, thanks. the part about NET helping your conference more than you is probably my biggest beef. If you look at St. John’s, #21 Florida, #22 Arkansas #23, Nebraska #24, You could make the argument that Florida doesn’t have a win as good as ours, Arkansas has two extremely close games against Winthrop and Samford, and St. John’s has not beaten a team as good as Tennessee. Nebraska has a résumé that looks impressive until you look at how bad Creighton, Kansas State, and Oklahoma are this year. Considering our resume against those four, I think it would be very difficult for anyone to say which one of those five teams is the best or has looked the best. (I would lean Florida).

But as you said, the benefit is to their conference mates. Right now the team that beat Tennessee and took Houston to overtime (with only losses to elite teams) would be a quad three win for a team who beats us at their home, While a team that beats any of the teams I mentioned above, at home, gets a quad 1 win. That’s pretty absurd when you think about it.

And since most objective people would say our resumes are very similar, teams get unfairly rewarded with more quad one opportunities. Or punished with fewer, for no particularly good reason.

Right now, looking at their remaining schedule, Wyoming has the possibility of going into conference play as a quad 1 opportunity for road teams. They lost to Sam Houston and played one team with a pulse, Texas Tech and lost. The rest of the resume is garbage.

Doctahlexus said it best, if beating the hell out of cupcakes was the measure of what a good team is, certainly Kentucky would’ve beaten one of the good teams they played.

Btw: you tagged the response I made to fly rodder. Just wanna make sure you know that was a response to him not you.!
 
Good info, thanks. the part about NET helping your conference more than you is probably my biggest beef. If you look at St. John’s, #21 Florida, #22 Arkansas #23, Nebraska #24, You could make the argument that Florida doesn’t have a win as good as ours, Arkansas has two extremely close games against Winthrop and Samford, and St. John’s has not beaten a team as good as Tennessee. Nebraska has a résumé that looks impressive until you look at how bad Creighton, Kansas State, and Oklahoma are this year. Considering our resume against those four, I think it would be very difficult for anyone to say which one of those five teams is the best or has looked the best. (I would lean Florida).

But as you said, the benefit is to their conference mates. Right now the team that beat Tennessee and took Houston to overtime (with only losses to elite teams) would be a quad three win for a team who beats us at their home, While a team that beats any of the teams I mentioned above, at home, gets a quad 1 win. That’s pretty absurd when you think about it.

And since most objective people would say our resumes are very similar, teams get unfairly rewarded with more quad one opportunities. Or punished with fewer, for no particularly good reason.

Right now, looking at their remaining schedule, Wyoming has the possibility of going into conference play as a quad 1 opportunity for road teams. They lost to Sam Houston and played one team with a pulse, Texas Tech and lost. The rest of the resume is garbage.

Doctahlexus said it best, if beating the hell out of cupcakes was the measure of what a good team is, certainly Kentucky would’ve beaten one of the good teams they played.

Btw: you tagged the response I made to fly rodder. Just wanna make sure you know that was a response to him not you.!

I don't think there will ever be a system that we can come up with that will not have some ne off exceptions or strange looking teams -- margin is a a necessary demon of sorts as part of the element. But the impact of NET on scheduling is troubling, and the impact of those games is problematic. The only good part is that it still comes down to generally your W and L's, although it seems this year the SEC is getting aided by the NET mechanisms and the B12 is getting hurt by the NET mechanisms... so the SEC could have a few teams that get in that don't deserve it (last year they may have deserved the 14, but if they sniff 9 or 10 this year its a problem).

If you follow my other thread "Tracking the ACC and other conferecnes" , the negative impact of Q4 games on the system really comes through.

SEC has propped itself up on the back of Q4 games this year to the point of being ranked #1 in Conference NET. But it has the worst record in quality games amongst the 4 conferences as well.

I do that thread for 2 reasons
1) To see how the ACC is doing relatively, which impacts us. And the ACC is competitive this year with the other 3, so if Syracuse does well in conference it will not hit the wall that some teams did in 2023 and 2024 when the ACC was really bad.

2) And also tracking who is the best in W/L in quality games, and who is best in Margin. The belief I had before last year was they generally correlate, but I have seen the B12 prop itself up on Q4 crap games last year. This year it was the SEC who did it. And the B12 is hurting itself by doing "relatively" poorer in Q4 games.

Every plays tonnes of Q4 games, but the SEC just has a knack for ramping up on them this year, Last year it was the B12.
 
It really is quite easy. Institute a commissioner who sets a schedule for every team. Stop teams from making their own schedule and trying to game the system. Create a somewhat level playing field. Every team does not have to have a schedule of equal difficulty, it just needs to be fair enough and unbiased. Then the teams with the best records make the playoffs. Basically just do what every other sport on earth does.
So what happens when a team plays possibly multiple teams that either end up substantially worse than expected, or substantially better than expected? Still use record only?
 

Forum statistics

Threads
175,730
Messages
5,261,876
Members
6,190
Latest member
Cuse823

Online statistics

Members online
252
Guests online
4,096
Total visitors
4,348


P
Top Bottom