This just in - marrone is still an imbecile**

[NineOneSeven]

Anyone have the gif of the ref fistbump in the game yesterday?

 

[OrangeFoo]

The Bills are screwed until they get a real QB. I didn't see it but the slide on 3rd down 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage is grounds for benching. I think Orton took a big hit somewhere along the way this year and decided it wasn't worth it to sacrifice his body when he is so close to retirement with all of his marbles. In no way shape or form do I blame Kyle Orton, he deserves the right to a long life after football with out long-term health issues... but if he is going to make that choice Marrone needs to sit him.

I am back in the Marrone camp... there is no team in the last 15 years of Bills teams that would have played even remotely close to the Broncos at Denver, facing 15 men (the refs) every play. Marrone is starting to get it but I do have some serious concerns about whether Hackett can create a sophisticated pro offense, ufortunately you can't judge that with this QB and this oline.

 

[Millhouse]

The Bills are screwed until they get a real QB. I didn't see it but the slide on 3rd down 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage is grounds for benching. I think Orton took a big hit somewhere along the way this year and decided it wasn't worth it to sacrifice his body when he is so close to retirement with all of his marbles. In no way shape or form do I blame Kyle Orton, he deserves the right to a long life after football with out long-term health issues... but if he is going to make that choice Marrone needs to sit him.

I am back in the Marrone camp... there is no team in the last 15 years of Bills teams that would have played even remotely close to the Broncos at Denver, facing 15 men (the refs) every play. Marrone is starting to get it but I do have some serious concerns about whether Hackett can create a sophisticated pro offense, ufortunately you can't judge that with this QB and this oline.

i love fred jackson and hopefully it's just injury related and not age related but he looks so slow since coming back on the rare occasions they can block for him

 

[Alsacs]

McCoy was way dumber than Marrone. McCoy punted from midfield with 6 minutes left and it was 4th and 4. Marrone realized if he went for it and missed he had 0% to win because Denver was in FG range. He punted and got the ball back and scored. Buffalo wouldn't have stopped Manning if they scored with TOs they needed an onside kick.

McCoy had the ball at midfield down 9 and punted. That was being an imbecile. Marrone has made great 4th down decisions in the Jets and Broncos game. I didn't see the Browns game.

 

[MSOrange]

My head popped off after the Orton slide on third down. Can't recall much after that. Wife still not talking to me.

That was just brutal. I had the same reaction.

 

[Millhouse]

Marrone realized if he went for it and missed he had 0% to win because Denver was in FG range.

they had a 1% chance of winning by punting and they would've had a 1% chance of winning if they failed to convert

 

[Alsacs]

they had a 1% chance of winning by punting and they would've had a 1% chance of winning if they failed to convert

That is just wrong. By punting he kept the game a 2 score game. If he goes for it and fails Denver is in chipshot FG range and goes up 17. By punting he flipped field position and used his TOs and forced Denver to run and make Buffalo use its TOs and get the ball back.

Buffalo proceeded to stop Denver and score a TD making it a 7 point game. If he goes for it and fails they go down 17 and the game is over. So whatever computer sim is telling you that is dumb and shouldn't be followed because it is obviously relying on Denver to miss a mid 30 yd FG to keep the game at 14.

Marrone has made dumb 4th down decisions in the past this decision actually kept his team in the game and they were an onside kick recovery away from potentially winning.

 

[Millhouse]

That is just wrong. By punting he kept the game a 2 score game. If he goes for it and fails Denver is in chipshot FG range and goes up 17. By punting he flipped field position and used his TOs and forced Denver to run and make Buffalo use its TOs and get the ball back.

Buffalo proceeded to stop Denver and score a TD making it a 7 point game. If he goes for it and fails they go down 17 and the game is over. So whatever computer sim is telling you that is dumb and shouldn't be followed because it is obviously relying on Denver to miss a mid 30 yd FG to keep the game at 14.

Marrone has made dumb 4th down decisions in the past this decision actually kept his team in the game and they were an onside kick recovery away from potentially winning.

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php

the odds of denver missing a FG or turning it over combined with the bills scoring twice are very low. 1%

the odds of scoring 2 TDs after punting with 5:30 left are also very low. 1%

if you're a meathead and assume every kick is perfect then maybe you should punt

keep the ball, try to score fast and at least the Broncos would have to wonder if you'll onside kick

 

[Millhouse]

lol

https://vine.co/v/OrnBBHP5F7l

 

[Alsacs]

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php

the odds of denver missing a FG or turning it over combined with the bills scoring twice are very low. 1%

the odds of scoring 2 TDs after punting with 5:30 left are also very low. 1%

if you're a meathead and assume every kick is perfect then maybe you should punt

keep the ball, try to score fast and at least the Broncos would have to wonder if you'll onside kick

Denver wasn't missing the kick thus he wanted to extend the game. Marrone has made mistakes in his past I agree with you I am still pissed about him punting against BC in 2010, but punting there made sense. He knew Denver would run to kill his TOs and he got the ball back. Buffalo scored and needed the onside kick.

 

[Millhouse]

Denver wasn't missing the kick thus he wanted to extend the game. Marrone has made mistakes in his past I agree with you I am still pissed about him punting against BC in 2010, but punting there made sense. He knew Denver would run to kill his TOs and he got the ball back. Buffalo scored and needed the onside kick.

extending the game is stupid

trying to win the game is smart

 

[longislandcuse]

Might be something wrong with Peyton. Bills defense is good but Denver is suddenly a running team?

He looked awful. Threw one deep ball that looked like my grandma threw. Got picked off and ran back to the, oh wait nevermind, flag.

 

[longislandcuse]

I don't know. I can't kill Marrone for it but converting a 4th and 2 seems a lot easier than getting an onside kick, which is basically what he was conceding needed to be done in order to tie the game after the punt.

 

[OrangeFoo]

i love fred jackson and hopefully it's just injury related and not age related but he looks so slow since coming back on the rare occasions they can block for him

I think it's a combination... he's seemingly had leg injuries every year the last few years or so. I think it's catching up to him as well as the fact that old dudes don't heal as quickly. As I can attest to the closer I get to 40.

I hope Freddy retires a Bill but he is no longer a starter. Bryce Brown seems to have much more explosion but he needs to hold on to the football and of course we have a cheap reup on CJ.

 

[longislandcuse]

I think it's a combination... he's seemingly had leg injuries every year the last few years or so. I think it's catching up to him as well as the fact that old dudes don't heal as quickly. As I can attest to the closer I get to 40.

I hope Freddy retires a Bill but he is no longer a starter. Bryce Brown seems to have much more explosion but he needs to hold on to the football and of course we have a cheap reup on CJ.

Agreed, love Fred and would absolutely agree with bringing him back next year...as a 3rd down back. Bryce Brown looks electric everytime he touches the ball and Dixon always get 3+ yards per carry. Even if we don't reup on Spiller, FJax needs to have a lessened role in this offense.

 

[SWC75]

It's not that far fetched. A head coach is going to take in to account media scrutiny, job security, etc. and make the safest decision from those perspectives. The gamer would only try to solve the problem immediately in front of them, and those decisions might look different because of that.

But the gamer wouldn't get to make those decisons unless he WAS the head coach.

 

[Chip]

Let's say you pulled all the data and found that 4th and 2 conversions happen 50% of the time. There are two types of coaches.

The minority, who think they have a 75% chance of converting it, and would go for it because it's better than the odds of converting an onsides kick.

The majority, who really think they have a 25% chance of converting it, as noticed by the fact that the scenario playing out in their head isn't the play itself, it's the result of its failure.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Let's say you pulled all the data and found that 4th and 2 conversions happen 50% of the time. There are two types of coaches.

The minority, who think they have a 75% chance of converting it, and would go for it because it's better than the odds of converting an onsides kick.

The majority, who really think they have a 25% chance of converting it, as noticed by the fact that the scenario playing out in their head isn't the play itself, it's the result of its failure.

It's a heuristics nightmare.

 

[Millhouse]

by the way, st doug didn't know a worthless assistant benched a key player on defense

 

[Chip]

by the way, st doug didn't know a worthless assistant benched a key player on defense

That was strange. Seemed like a too much on my plate moment. Happens to the best of them.

 

[OrangeFoo]

by the way, st doug didn't know a worthless assistant benched a key player on defense

St. Doug has some problems but he is still better than every coach in the last 15 years other than Jauron. The Bills swung and miss on a QB and that is killing the team. I am seeing St. Doug make a similar progression in coaching to when he was here at Syracuse... he was a much better coach going out than going in. I'm ready to give him another year as long as he does something about can't-Hackett.

 

[upperdeck]

they had a 1% chance of winning by punting and they would've had a 1% chance of winning if they failed to convert

i still think those stats are skewed. how many times did teams go for vs not go for it in the position? the numbers have to be way over 90% one side of the equation

 

[upperdeck]

I don't know. I can't kill Marrone for it but converting a 4th and 2 seems a lot easier than getting an onside kick, which is basically what he was conceding needed to be done in order to tie the game after the punt.

20 % converting 4th down and 20% onside kick.

 

[Millhouse]

20 % converting 4th down and 20% onside kick.

In what world

 

[Chip]

In what world

Seriously. If the odds of gaining 2 yards with most of the field in front of you are the same as recovering an onsides kick, then offensive football is dead. If it's team specific, then that team should start over on offense.