From my pre-season preview:
Our eventual goal, reasonably, is to be a perennial top 25 team with the potential for something more than that when the circumstances are right. I calculated the average numbers that the top passer, runner and receiver had, on average for the teams that finished in the top 25 of last year’s AP poll, (which was done after the bowls: the BCS standings are before the bowls and so not the final poll).
The average quarterback for a top 25 team last year completed 224 of 351 passes, (65.8%) for 2,895 yards and threw 23 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Last year, Ryan Nassib completed 202 of 358 passes (.564%) for 2,334 yards, 19 TDs and 8 interceptions. He was the first SU quarterback to complete 200 passes in a season. His accuracy was well short of the top 25 standard, as was noted by SU fans last year. We also complained about his pocket presence- he seemed to panic in a rush and run in the wrong direction to avoid it. But he threw 19 touchdown passes, something only Don McPherson and Donovan McNabb have exceeded. And he did this with a young offensive line and a receiving corps depleted by injuries. He proved in the bowl game that, given protection and a good receivers, he could put up big numbers. I’m not sure about the completion percentage but I think with good injury luck this year, he could match or exceed the other “top 25” standards.
The average top running back for a top 25 team last year carried the ball 199 times for 1093 yards, (a 5.5 average) and 12 TDs. Last year, Delone Carter exceeded the yardage with 231 carries for 1233 yards, (5.3) and 9TDS. Delone lacked explosiveness but was a strong power runner and a good technician between the tackles. But he’s gone. His back-up Antwon Bailey, is smaller, quicker and more versatile. I think he can approach the top 25 standards and also be a threat as a pass receiver. He’s also a fine blocker.
The average leading pass receiver on a top 25 team last year caught 63 passes for 947 yards and 8 touchdowns. Syracuse has never had a player catch 63 passes, although Kevin Johnson and Mike Williams have caught 60. Only Tommy Kane, Rob Moore and Marvin Harrison have accumulated that amount of yardage, with Harrison the leader at 1131. The eight touchdowns have been matched or exceeded several times. The question is: do we have anyone who can do that this year? Marcus Sales, who caught three long TD passes in the Pinstripe Bowl was thought to be our best returning receiver but took himself out of the running by getting arrested for (allegedly) trying to sell drugs with his brother. The actual top returning receiver is Van Chew, who caught 41 for 611 yards and 5 TDs, well short of the top 25 standards, although the average per catch is similar, (14.9 vs. 15.0). Van got off to a great start with 30 catches for 498 yards and 4 scores in the first 7 games. But injuries rendered him ineffective after that. With a full healthy season, he could approach the top 25 standard.
Nassib is on his way to a top 25 season: 296 of 408 (.725) for 2904 yards, 28 TDs passes, 4 interceptions
Both Lemon and Chew are on a pass for top 25 receiving years: Lemon 96 receptions 872 yards (9.1) 8TDs, Chew 60 receptions for 960 yards, 12 TDs.
Bailey will wind up short of top 25 standards: 196 carries ofr 816 yards, (4.2), 8TDs.
Of course, they have to maintina their current rates through the rest of the seaosn to reach those numbers. Wemight not play a better team than USC this eyar but we will play better teams than Wake Forest and Rhode Island.
