Top 4 seeds in each region

[Marsh01]

No order or S curve and based on teams playing today winning games

1 seeds

Lousville
Indiana
Gonzaga
Kansas

2 seeds

Duke
Miami
Georgetown
Ohio State (if they win today if not New Mexico)

3 seeds

New Mexico (I still think they could get a 2 over OSU if OSU loses today)
Michigan State
Florida
Michigan

4 seeds

Kansas State
Syracuse
St Louis (if they win today, if not Arizona/Marquette)
Wisconsin (if they win today, if not Arizona/Marquette)

 

[pearl31]

after today, actually wouldn't be surprised to see SLU get Florida's 3 seed. I think the A10 is gonna get much (maybe too much?) respect in that committee room

 

[bpo57]

1- Lville, Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga
2- Miami, OSU, KU, UNM
3- FLA, MSU, Gtown, UM
4-SU, Wisc, STL, UNC

Assumes OSU wins today. Last one out on 4 line is KSU.

 

[Jasoncuse]

1- Lville, Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga
2- Miami, OSU, KU, UNM
3- FLA, MSU, Gtown, UM
4-SU, Wisc, STL, UNC

Assumes OSU wins today. Last one out on 4 line is KSU.

No way UNC gets a 4. They beat nobody all year. Best wins are UNLV and NC State. They are a 6 or 7.

 

[pearl31]

after today, actually wouldn't be surprised to see SLU get Florida's 3 seed. I think the A10 is gonna get much (maybe too much?) respect in that committee room

oh, and also the feel-good, inspirational Majerus storyline - the media has been all over that for weeks and I think the committee follows right along

 

[Marsh01]

1- Lville, Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga
2- Miami, OSU, KU, UNM
3- FLA, MSU, Gtown, UM
4-SU, Wisc, STL, UNC

Assumes OSU wins today. Last one out on 4 line is KSU.

Duke will not get a 1 seed or be seeded higher than Miami. The committee would never do that with Miami winning the regular season AND conference tournament. Georgetown is a 2 for sure. UNC will not be a 4.

 

[jncuse]

Very, very close to mine.

I put Buckeyes as a lock at 2 no matter what as committee wanted to avoid contingency brackets - even if I felt UNM deserved it in a loss scenario. But if it puts UNM/Buckeyes in same region, its easy to move them around witout last minute chaos. So that is my prediction as well.

Your 4 seed scenarios may be difficult to build a contingency around. I suppose you can do same and put 4/5 in same pod - can Wisconsin/Marquette play again in round of 32... or is it only in 16 you can play somebody again? I foret exact rule. Would be a major bracketin issue if cannot face until round of 16.

 

[Marsh01]

Very, very close to mine.

I put Buckeyes as a lock at 2 no matter what as committee wanted to avoid contingency brackets - even if I felt UNM deserved it in a loss scenario. But if it puts UNM/Buckeyes in same region, its easy to move them around witout last minute chaos. So that is my prediction as well.

Your 4 seed scenarios may be difficult to build a contingency around. I suppose you can do same and put 4/5 in same pod - can Wisconsin/Marquette play again in round of 32... or is it only in 16 you can play somebody again? I foret exact rule. Would be a major bracketin issue if cannot face until round of 16.

I think New Mexico has a damn good shot at a 2 seed. Toughest RPI conference, RPI is 2, BPI is 9, SOS is #2, non conference SOS is 3 and they have 10 wins vs the top 50 RPI. I would not be shocked if they are a 2 seed if OSU loses.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Very, very close to mine.

I put Buckeyes as a lock at 2 no matter what as committee wanted to avoid contingency brackets - even if I felt UNM deserved it in a loss scenario. But if it puts UNM/Buckeyes in same region, its easy to move them around witout last minute chaos. So that is my prediction as well.

Your 4 seed scenarios may be difficult to build a contingency around. I suppose you can do same and put 4/5 in same pod - can Wisconsin/Marquette play again in round of 32... or is it only in 16 you can play somebody again? I foret exact rule. Would be a major bracketin issue if cannot face until round of 16.

Considering we played Marquette in the round of 32 (and UConn vs Cincy), I'd imagine Marquette/Wisconsin can happen again without any issues.

 

[orange79]

St.Louis won, so AZ should drop. Although, I still think Marquette could get a 4.

 

[SUintheVille]

After Duke lost in Maryland in tourney, a Notre Dame fan at MSG said that Duke would fall from a 1 to 3 because of that. He was serious. I think he was smoking something. A 2 yes, no way in heck a 3.

 

[jncuse]

Duke will not get a 1 seed or be seeded higher than Miami. The committee would never do that with Miami winning the regular season AND conference tournament. Georgetown is a 2 for sure. UNC will not be a 4.

Not convinced of that. Its sort of old way of seedin that really emphasized conference play. Duke OOC is much better -- quality wins (Louisville / Buckeyes) and no bad losses like Florida Coast or moderate loss like Indiana St. If committee is embracin full body of work concept it makes it very close between two teams.

Toss up IMO between all of Kansas/Miami/Duke. Still not made my selection.

 

[jncuse]

St.Louis won, so AZ should drop. Although, I still think Marquette could get a 4.

Zona has OOC wins vs Florida, Miami. I put as 5, but I can see as a 4.

 

[Marsh01]

Not convinced of that. Its sort of old way of seedin that really emphasized conference play. Duke OOC is much better -- quality wins (Louisville / Buckeyes) and no bad losses like Florida Coast or moderate loss like Indiana St. If committee is embracin full body of work concept it makes it very close between two teams.

Toss up IMO between all of Kansas/Miami/Duke. Still not made my selection.

I would have agreed with you if Duke had beat Maryland but with them losing and Miami running the table, I just dont see how they can justify that decision. The FGC thing is also semi misleading as they are in the tournament so its not like this was a horrific loss.

 

[EastCoast2]

Marsh I think you're on the money with this. Notice with a proper S curve, we're out west w/ Gonzaga

 

[jncuse]

I think New Mexico has a damn good shot at a 2 seed. Toughest RPI conference, RPI is 2, BPI is 9, SOS is #2, non conference SOS is 3 and they have 10 wins vs the top 50 RPI. I would not be shocked if they are a 2 seed if OSU loses.

Totally with you.

I felt they deserved it yesterday, but could not think of a way to move them up even if OSU lost - due to lack of flexibility for B10 finalists. By puttin in same area as 2/3, we can accomplish it and avoid bracket chaos.

 

[Marsh01]

Totally with you.

I felt they deserved it yesterday, but could not think of a way to move them up even if OSU lost - due to lack of flexibility for B10 finalists. By puttin in same area as 2/3, we can accomplish it and avoid bracket chaos.

OSU would really wrap it up and end the discussion if they win today.

I also find the Georgetown/Florida argument for the last 2 seed. I cant see how Florida gets the nod over Georgetown.

 

[orange79]

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Duke vs. Miami. They split during the regular season (beat UM by 3 in Durham, got crushed by 27 in Miami), Duke is #1 RPI and #1 SOS, but Miami is not far behind (#4 and #7 respectively). In the ACCT, Duke lost in the quarters, while Miami won the tournament. Maybe they both get 2's, but I have a suspicion that Miami supplants Kansas on the top line. Just a hunch.

 

[jncuse]

OSU would really wrap it up and end the discussion if they win today.

I also find the Georgetown/Florida argument for the last 2 seed. I cant see how Florida gets the nod over Georgetown.

I think Florida needs to worry about 3/4 seed. Closer to a 4, than a 2. After all its marquee win is... Wisconin, Marquette or Missouri. It benefits from eye test and destroyin teams from time to time... but from a pure W/L, defintely not a 2.

 

[jncuse]

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Duke vs. Miami. They split during the regular season (beat UM by 3 in Durham, got crushed by 27 in Miami), Duke is #1 RPI and #1 SOS, but Miami is not far behind (#4 and #7 respectively). In the ACCT, Duke lost in the quarters, while Miami won the tournament. Maybe they both get 2's, but I have a suspicion that Miami supplants Kansas on the top line. Just a hunch.

Take easy way out and make Kansas #1 seed!!

 

[Marsh01]

I think Florida needs to worry about 3/4 seed. Closer to a 4, than a 2. After all its marquee win is... Wisconin, Marquette or Missouri. It benefits from eye test and destroyin teams from time to time... but from a pure W/L, defintely not a 2.

This one I struggled with as well. I think they grab a 3 but would not be shocked if they do end up on he 4 line.

What sucks is we would have jumped them had we won last night.

 

[Orangemen]

NM's RPI is suspect to me.

It's high because they beat a bunch of other MWC teams, who's RPI's are high because they beat a bunch of other MWC teams. The MWC is a giant circular argument this year. There is nothing OOC from this entire league.

NM's best OOC win is UConn on a Neutral court, and then @ Cincy. Digging into their RPI, I don't think you can justify NM on the 2 line.

 

[jncuse]

This one I struggled with as well. I think they grab a 3 but would not be shocked if they do end up on he 4 line.

What sucks is we would have jumped them had we won last night.

We were lookin for a team to fall to nearly 100% secure the 3. Florda was it.

 

[jncuse]

NM's RPI is suspect to me.

It's high because they beat a bunch of other MWC teams, who's RPI's are high because they beat a bunch of other MWC teams. The MWC is a giant circular argument this year. There is nothing OOC from this entire league.

NM's best OOC win is UConn on a Neutral court, and then @ Cincy. Digging into their RPI, I don't think you can justify NM on the 2 line.

I agree RPI overrates UNM. BUT, they would be a #1 seed candidate based on a blind resume. So a 2 seed is already discounting for flaw.

Question is how much to discount?

MWC is overranked by RPI, but very solid. Use KenPom which is not influenced by circular factor - top 4 opponents are ranked 24,28,34,49 and it is 50% of your schedule. Win both titles in such a conference, and you deserve to be a 3.

 

[bpo57]

No way UNC gets a 4. They beat nobody all year. Best wins are UNLV and NC State. They are a 6 or 7.

Lets see your seeds. I can see K State over UNC. Be surprised if UNC is a 7