Tourney Selection Show Discussion

[HRE Otto IV]

It should be pretty easy to narrow teams down. The committee can look at the conference standings and get the pool down to under 90 teams. If a P5 school is worse than 8-10 or 9-11 in conference, they should get cut. If a small conference team is worse than 12-6 or 13-7, they should be cut.

Then look at the OOC schedules of those less than 90 teams. Did they play multiple teams from that <90? Did they have Ws from that <90? What was their record vs those teams? Did you play and win road games vs those teams? How many Ls did they have OOC vs teams not on this list?

About 30 of those teams will get an auto bid. So really they are looking at <60 teams for about 30 spots. Rank the teams based off of their OOC and done.

There shouldn't be quality wins outside of this list. What does it matter if you beat a team OOC that doesn't qualify for the NIT?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Definitely shouldn’t be a 9 seed, a low 10 at best. I do think this iteration of the big 12 might be the best conference in a long time though. Every team in the top 70 of net, Oklahoma (who was last) still had 6 quad 1 wins. The entire conference had 1 Quad 3 and 1 Quad 4 loss.

Stupid good

The Top 4 of the B12 is great. But how do we know how good the rest of the teams are? Against those Top 4 (including B12T) WV went 1-8. They went 5-4 (including a coachless Texas Tech) against the Bottom 3 (non NCAAT teams). They beat Iowa State twice. That isn't enough IMO to make up for that 5-4.

Edit

I forgot TCU. So against those Bottom 3 WV went 4-3. They should NOT be punished for going 1-8 against the top. But IMO they should be punished for going 4-3 against the bottom. Just going 5-2 gets them to a more respectable 8-10 in conference.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I would have had Clemson in over ASU who got in beating Arizona by a point two weeks ago. Otherwise there’s not much on the resume.

 

[Cuse181]

The Top 4 of the B12 is great. But how do we know how good the rest of the teams are? Against those Top 4 (including B12T) WV went 1-8. They went 5-4 (including a coachless Texas Tech) against the Bottom 3 (non NCAAT teams). They beat Iowa State twice. That isn't enough IMO to make up for that 5-4.

Crushed Pitt and beat Auburn and Florida (nothing too special) lost to Purdue and Xavier, no bad losses and beat everyone else they were supposed to. Sometimes being in a once in a lifetime conference wins you a lot of fans in the committee

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Crushed Pitt and beat Auburn and Florida (nothing too special) lost to Purdue and Xavier, no bad losses and beat everyone else they were supposed to. Sometimes being in a one in a lifetime conference wins you a lot of fans in the committee

Crap I missed the Auburn game since it was played in the middle of conference season. That kind of changes things a little. That puts them at 6-11 vs NCAAT teams. Two of those Ws were on the road. I think that is enough to get in but a 10 seed at best.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Crap I missed the Auburn game since it was played in the middle of conference season. That kind of changes things a little. That puts them at 6-11 vs NCAAT teams. Two of those Ws were on the road. I think that is enough to get in but a 10 seed at best.

They’d probably prefer to be a 10.

 

[CardiacCuse]

WOW - they put Houston in the MIDWEST region over Kansas. That has huge implications.

That means Kansas will not be able to play in the Kansas City Regional... they will be playing in Vegas instead.

Stunned that the NCAA made this call to punish one of the blue bloods.
Did not thing they had the balls to do it - especially since they were so close.

which fanbase is more likely to travel?

i'd say kansas'

more $$$

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think they need to make it less subjective (the NET and Quads are subjective). I think if a P6 team wins more than 2/3 of their conference games, they should be in. And if they win less than 1/2, they should be out. For everyone else you need to win more than 2/3 of your conference games to be considered for an at large.

That would have created...

America East
In: Vermont
At large pool: UMass Lowell

AAC
In: Memphis
At large pool: Houston

A10
In: VCU
At large pool: None

ACC
In: Duke, Miami, UVA, Clemson, Pitt
At large pool: NC State, UNC, Wake, SU

ASUN
In: Kennesaw St
At large pool: Liberty

B12
In: Texas, Kansas
At large pool: K State, Baylor, TCU, Iowa St
Out: WV

Big East
In: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton
At large pool: UConn, Providence, Seton Hall, Nova

Big Sky
In: Montana St
At large pool: Eastern Washington

Big South
In: UNC Asheville
At large pool: None

Big Ten
In: Purdue
At large pool: Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan St, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers

Big West
In: UC Santa Barbara
At large pool: UC Irvine, UC Riverside

Colonial
In: Charleston
At large pool: Hofstra

CUSA
In: FAU
At large pool: North Texas, UAB

Horizon
In: Northern Kentucky
At large pool: Youngstown St, Milwaukee, Cleveland St

Ivy
In: Princeton
At large pool: Yale

MAAC
In: Iona
At large pool: None

MAC
In: Kent St
At large pool: Toledo, Akron

MEAC
In: Howard
At large pool: NC Central

MVC
In: Drake
At large pool: Bradley, Southern Illinois, Belmont

MWC
In: San Diego St
At large pool: Utah St, Boise St
Out: Nevada

NEC
In: FDU
At large pool: None

OVC
In: SEMO
At large pool: Morehead St

P12
In: Arizona, UCLA, USC
At large pool: Oregon, Washington St, Arizona St, Utah

Patriot
In: Colgate
At large pool: None

SEC
In: Bama, A&M
At large pool: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Vandy, Auburn, Florida
Out: Arkansas, Miss St

Southern
In: Furman
At large pool: Samford, UNC Greensboro

Southland
In: Corpus Cristi
At large pool: NW St

SWAC
In: Texas Southern
At large pool: Grambling St, Alcorn St

Summit
In: Oral Roberts
At large pool: South Dakota St

Sunbelt
In: Louisiana
At large pool: Southern Miss, Marshall

WCC
In: Gonzaga
At large pool: St Marys, Santa Clara

WAC
In: Grand Canyon
At large pool: Sam Houston, Utah Valley


That eliminates 4 teams that made it and added one team that did not. For the 36 at large bids they have 26 spots and 65 teams to chose from. I would say about half of those eligible are easy to discard, so the committee wouldn't have much work to do.

 

[orangecuse]

They’d probably prefer to be a 10.

100%.

IMO, other than being in the dreaded 'play-in' game, I think that 8/9 match-up is the next dreaded. Seems the 9 seed wins more times than the 8 too. Additionally, get by that, and you have to face the #1 seed in the 2nd round.

Much, much rather be a 10 (than in the 8/9 spot) everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. See 2016 when we were a 10.

 

[kirbivore]

Duke is good for TV

Some will say Duke got hosed as a #5, but they get a potential matchup with the weakest #1 in the S16 at MSG. Lot's of alums and locals that've never been to NC will fill that place.

 

[kirbivore]

Utah St and Nevada played no one OOC. They don’t belong at all. But apparently 12-6 in the MWC is better than 14-6 in the ACC. Given the matchups I think there is a better chance of the MWC going 0-4 than getting 2 Ws combined in the tournament. Why do they get respect every year?

If your a gambler fade the Mountain West is free money

 

[Cusefan0307]

Some will say Duke got hosed as a #5, but they get a potential matchup with the weakest #1 in the S16 at MSG. Lot's of alums and locals that've never been to NC will fill that place.

Yeah. And I don't think Oral Roberts is that great. Houston beat them by 40.

 

[gbo]

South Carolina fans are celebrating that their football team beat Clemson and kept them from making the college football playoffs and their basketball team beat Clemson and kept them out of the NCAA tournament.

It is very Rutgerian. They are the Rutgers of the SEC.

It's pathetic but unfortunately they aren't wrong...

 

[sutomcat]

It's pathetic but unfortunately they aren't wrong...

They haven't had very many opportunities to do this. I guess they are getting their money's worth while it is still possible.

 

[bpo57]

you couldn't be more wrong. This Texas team is okay but nothing special. They have won multiple games they should have lost. Texas may very well win, but they sure are notgoing to blow Colgate's doors off unless all the shooters go cold.

Texas is loaded. They have three guards that can each go for 20 on a given night. In one way I think Colgate is catching Texas at a good time coming off a high with the big win over KU but if the Horns get rolling they can run Colgate right out of the gym.

 

[bpo57]

One problem I have with the current system--

OOC games played between mid-Nov and mid-Dec lock in the numbers (and the narrative) for the entire season. Teams get better, or worse, during the course of the season, but those changes are not reflected in the NET.

I'd like a week set aside during mid-Feb, where everyone plays 2 non-con games.

Agree 100%. Way too much emphasis placed on games played in November and December.

 

[bpo57]

The Big 12/SEC Challenge effectively did that this year. Probably had a lot to do with A&M getting a 7-seed and WVU making the field comfortably.

We need more of this. Next year’s ACC/SEC Challenge should be in January or February. The Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and Big East should put together challenges at the same time. Bring back the Bracket Buster games for the mid-majors. Or have some midseason tournaments.

It’s not just a matter of teams getting in or not getting in. The seedings are all over the place, too.

A&M got the seven seed for two reasons: 1) A&M ripped the Selection Committee a new one last year after they were snubbed. Eight of those 12 committee members returned this year and they put the wood to the Aggies; 2) they wanted a potential Texas/Texas A&M matchup in the 2nd round.

 

[Day2]

A&M got the seven seed for two reasons: 1) A&M ripped the Selection Committee a new one last year after they were snubbed. Eight of those 12 committee members returned this year and they put the wood to the Aggies; 2) they wanted a potential Texas/Texas A&M matchup in the 2nd round.

The first reason is as petty as that college umpire. Second reason is logical…but more fair in the Sweet 16.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Agree 100%. Way too much emphasis placed on games played in November and December.

I thought the last 10 they used to use was a great indicator of potential for the tourney. No idea why they went away from that. Probably made too much sense.

 

[djcon57]

I thought the last 10 they used to use was a great indicator of potential for the tourney. No idea why they went away from that. Probably made too much sense.

Especially with how teams are built in the portal age. These guys barely know each other in November.

 

[FireballPhil]

Texas is loaded. They have three guards that can each go for 20 on a given night. In one way I think Colgate is catching Texas at a good time coming off a high with the big win over KU but if the Horns get rolling they can run Colgate right out of the gym.

This is probably an example of where two people can watch the same game and come away with two different perspectives. To me it isn't the offense that wins the games for Texas it is their defense. When they are locked in defensively they are very very tough to score on. Offensively they can score a decent amount, but they probably average between 70-75 points a game unless you factor in the scrub teams.If Texas brings the tight defense they are capable of playing they will win. If they don't, it is a toss up. Texas has the personnel to play a sustained tight defense and have shown it multiple games. I don't know what they are rated as I don't follow the numbers closely but it has been one of the best in the nation many times this year from the eye test.

 

[Madbiker]

Why are so many pundits picking UConn to the regional final and some to the FF? This isn't Calhoun coaching that team.

 

[bpo57]

This is probably an example of where two people can watch the same game and come away with two different perspectives. To me it isn't the offense that wins the games for Texas it is their defense. When they are locked in defensively they are very very tough to score on. Offensively they can score a decent amount, but they probably average between 70-75 points a game unless you factor in the scrub teams.If Texas brings the tight defense they are capable of playing they will win. If they don't, it is a toss up. Texas has the personnel to play a sustained tight defense and have shown it multiple games. I don't know what they are rated as I don't follow the numbers closely but it has been one of the best in the nation many times this year from the eye test.

I've watched Texas play at least 10-12 times this year. I placed some futures bets on Texas before Chris Beard was fired so I have followed them closely. I just don't see a world where this game is a toss-up though I know anything can happen in a NCAAT game.

Texas had a stretch where they were giving up 80+ points to some teams that aren't that good like OU, Rice, Illinois - even gave up 116 to Kansas State. After that game they became more serious about defense and it's enabled them to hit their stride. But what makes them dangerous is they average 78 points a game with a very balanced attack (four guys in double figures), shooting 47% from the floor and 75% from the line. Strangely enough over the last 5-7 years the teams that have advanced the furthest are the more prolific offensive teams.

 

[FireballPhil]

I've watched Texas play at least 10-12 times this year. I placed some futures bets on Texas before Chris Beard was fired so I have followed them closely. I just don't see a world where this game is a toss-up though I know anything can happen in a NCAAT game.

Texas had a stretch where they were giving up 80+ points to some teams that aren't that good like OU, Rice, Illinois - even gave up 116 to Kansas State. After that game they became more serious about defense and it's enabled them to hit their stride. But what makes them dangerous is they average 78 points a game with a very balanced attack (four guys in double figures), shooting 47% from the floor and 75% from the line. Strangely enough over the last 5-7 years the teams that have advanced the furthest are the more prolific offensive teams.

78 points a game seems a little high, but is probably true when you average in the non conference wins. In a couple of Oklahoma games, Iowa state games they looked mediocre. Even when they beat Iowa State the last time in the regular season they didn't look very good, it was just their defense was stifling and Iowa State couldn't figure out how to score the ball. It helped they couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives either. The WV games were closer than they should have been, Texas Tech gave them all they could handle one game and beat them the next. Even TCU beat them once, and probably should have beat them a second time earlier in the season.

I don't mean to sound like they aren't a good team because they are. But to me it isn't their offense that wins them the games it is their defense. The reason they won many close games is because they were able to lock it down defensively at the end of games and their opponents were having a hard time getting any looks at all. I remember the last Baylor game and the game really wasn't as close as the final score showed. When Kansas beat them earlier in the season it was because they didn't play very good defense. Bottom line is to me they have been inconsistent on the defensive end making them vulnerable to a team like Colgate.

I don't expect Colgate to win. I expect Texas should win by 8. But it will be much closer than what people think unless Colgate just decides the ocean isn't wide enough that day.

 

[bpo57]

78 points a game seems a little high, but is probably true when you average in the non conference wins. In a couple of Oklahoma games, Iowa state games they looked mediocre. Even when they beat Iowa State the last time in the regular season they didn't look very good, it was just their defense was stifling and Iowa State couldn't figure out how to score the ball. It helped they couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives either. The WV games were closer than they should have been, Texas Tech gave them all they could handle one game and beat them the next. Even TCU beat them once, and probably should have beat them a second time earlier in the season.

I don't mean to sound like they aren't a good team because they are. But to me it isn't their offense that wins them the games it is their defense. The reason they won many close games is because they were able to lock it down defensively at the end of games and their opponents were having a hard time getting any looks at all. I remember the last Baylor game and the game really wasn't as close as the final score showed. When Kansas beat them earlier in the season it was because they didn't play very good defense. Bottom line is to me they have been inconsistent on the defensive end making them vulnerable to a team like Colgate.

I don't expect Colgate to win. I expect Texas should win by 8. But it will be much closer than what people think unless Colgate just decides the ocean isn't wide enough that day.

The B12 is a brutally tough conference so some of the games you reference are understandable that they'd be competitive games. For example you say "Even TCU beat them once... as if that was a bad loss. TCU has been hampered by a couple of key injuries but when they have a full lineup they're easily a top 20 team. I think Texas is solid on both ends of the floor. They should handle Colgate fairly easily unless they take them for granted and come out flat. If that happens they deserve to lose.