Tracking the ACC vs Other Leagues (2025/2026) | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

Tracking the ACC vs Other Leagues (2025/2026)

SEC this year vs last year

Q4 Margin: 29.6 (2025) vs 27.9 (2024)
Q1 Margin: negative 7.4 (2025) vs positive 2.7 (2024 - next best was negative 4.0)
Q1 Win%: - 18% vs 60% (next best in 2024 was 36%)
Q1+Q2: 31% vs 69% (next best in 2024 was 44%
Against Other Powers - 38% vs 76% (next best was B10 at 50%)

Its only 16 head to head matchups compared to 89.
But 6-10 compared to 67-22 is a massive difference.

They are not going to come close to 67-22.

Still doing well in margin game so it hasn't been a disaster for them... but they might just be a 8 or 9 bid league this year.
 
jncuse said:
SEC this year vs last year

Q4 Margin: 29.6 (2025) vs 27.9 (2024)
Q1 Margin: negative 7.4 (2025) vs positive 2.7 (2024 - next best was negative 4.0)
Q1 Win%: - 18% vs 60% (next best in 2024 was 36%)
Q1+Q2: 31% vs 69% (next best in 2024 was 44%
Against Other Powers - 38% vs 76% (next best was B10 at 50%)

Its only 16 head to head matchups compared to 89.
But 6-10 compared to 67-22 is a massive difference.

They are not going to come close to 67-22.

Still doing well in margin game so it hasn't been a disaster for them... but they might just be a 8 or 9 bid league this year.
Expand...

And now the ACC
Q4 Margin: 28.3 (2025) vs 19.2 (2024)
Q1 Margin: 0.5 (2025) vs negative 8.8
Q1 Win%: - 38% vs 20%
Q1+Q2: 46% vs 26%
Against Other Powers - 44% (6-7) vs 26% (20-54)

As a note Q1 win% doesn't look great, but its rare for conference to be 50% or above. That is because some games are Q1 for road teams, and Q2 for home teams.

The big improvement so far is margin.
But still doing far better in tougher matchups -- next few weeks will be telling in this regard.
 
After week 2, here is the high level summary.

ACC still the best in terms of margin, which has the highest NET impact. Margin of 21.3 vs average of 17.6. That being ACC schedule is a bit softer, but adjusting for that ACC still the highest.

Nov16 Summary.gif


The above being noted, while the ACC/SEC are excelling at the margin game, when leagues face other, the B10 and B12 have been clearly ahead (so far)


Nov16 TopGames.gif


So its really hard to rank the conference right now, and where they might be heading. In terms of NET, its quite possible that the ACC/SEC are in the lead. But that is largely based on Q4. Head to head is not irrelevant either, and more of those are coming.

I think the ACC is ahead of the SEC right now. (because they have in margin and quality games)

Its clear that the Big East is well behind. Not quite as bad as ACC 2024 yet, but they may be getting there.
 
Beyond win%, looking at margin.

In Q1 games B12 is best.
ACC is 3-7 in Q1 games, but they have kept the losses close, so the margin is small (-1.1)
The SEC is 2-10 in Q1 games, and their margin is far worst at -6.8.

Don't look much at Q2+Q3 -- those samples are quite small.

Look a lot at Q4 - that is 71% of the total ACC games (48 of 68 games), and 67% of games for other conferences. The SEC and ACC are well ahead of the B10 and B12 in that regard.

Very early, but the ACC is doing that the B12 did in prior years.

Nov16 Summary Margin.gif
 
looking at the games, ACC underdogs except Pitt and Miami have played well. Notre Dame and Wake had tough losses.

But I think we were underdogs in at least 9 or 10 of the 15 games we played.

We haven’t had our top teams Duke, NC, Louisville, play Rutgers, DePaul, UCF, etc.

Off the top of my head, UNC, Ville, Duke, VT, and SMU all played peer teams. We haven’t had any opportunities to punch down yet.
 
DomeHolmes said:
looking at the games, ACC underdogs except Pitt and Miami have played well. Notre Dame and Wake had tough losses.

But I think we were underdogs in at least 9 or 10 of the 15 games we played.

We haven’t had our top teams Duke, NC, Louisville, play Rutgers, DePaul, UCF, etc.

Off the top of my head, UNC, Ville, Duke, VT, and SMU all played peer teams. We haven’t had any opportunities to punch down yet.
Expand...

Its certainly possible that the lack of punch down games is a possibility that is skewing the win %.
I measure the "SOS" of who they are facing and its in line with others But I didn't measure the strength of the ACC team playing either which could be the problem.

We shall see in a few weeks.
 
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Between now and Sunday:

Virginia at Northwestern
Virginia at Butler
Kansas at Duke
Louisville at Cincinnati
West Virginia at Clemson
Wake at Texas tech

I feel pretty good about getting at least three, but maybe more likely 4-2.

UVA is probably better than Northwestern or Butler, but both are on the road.

I expect Duke and Louisville to win. But I again a road game for ville.

Wake played well against Michigan. Maybe they could steal one here.

Lowest confidence in Clemson

Our three games where we finally have an opportunity to “punch down“ are all on the road.

Teams other than Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina need to make some noise.
 
Rough night for the ACC in the "margin" game. Although the SEC had a tough night as well.
Thankfully SMU pumped #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff by 46, and Duke had a double digit win over Kansas.

But really close games:
Geogia Tech by 2 over #238 Georgia Southern
Syracuse by 5 over #234 Monmouth
Cal by 5 over #295 Presbertyrian (4 minutes left)

UNC, Florida St and BC beat top half Q4 teams by 12, 14 and 11 respectively. So below standard.
 
B10 has closed the margin gap with the ACC and SEC. Still #3, but its now quite close. Given their Q1 and head to head performance, I have to rank them #1.

Right now I have
1. B10
2. ACC
3. SEC / Big 12
 
A few more so/so nights for the ACC, and a very so/so week ACC has had a tough margin week,

ACC has now lost the lead in the "Margin" category. They had held it the past few week In brackets is a ratio of margin/SOS difficulty

1. SEC 20.0 (9.3%)
2. ACC 19.8 (9.1%)
3. B10 17.9 (8.8%)
4. B12 15.5 (8.2%)
5. BE 13.9 (6.6%)

This week the average of all team fell from 8.5% to 8.4%, but the ACC has fell from 9.7% to 9.1%,
 
In terms of conference head to head games.

1. B10 13-5 (72%)
2. B12 16-7 (70%)
3. ACC 7-11 (39%)
4. SEC 8-13 (38%)
5. BE 3-13 (19%)

As noted a number of times, while the SEC and ACC do well in the margin game against Q4 teams, they don't deliver in competitive games.
 
If you asked me for overall impact come tourney time

1. B10 (Margin right up there, but winning head to head)
2. SEC
3. ACC
4. B12

You could argue the B12 should be ahead of both the SEC and ACC due to quality wins record, but despite winning they are not doing great in the NET margin game. The exact opposite of prior years
 
To make it clear, while the ACC is slipping, and could be argued as low as #4, it is nowhere near as bad as where it was at last year, and they are in range with all the other conferences between #1-#4.

Last year they were in a league of their own.
 
BC down to Davidson 33-31 at the half. Lots of tournaments on the ESPN Networks and CBS Sports Network today and tomorrow
 
Yeti said:
Just winning like half of these close ooc games would go so far to improving perception. It feels like the acc team loses every 3 point game lol.
Expand...

1-5 in games of 3 points or less

2-8 in games of 5 points or less.

Its why despite a record of 7-11, the margin is basically even (-0.4)
 
SEC continues the game of dominating Q4 teams better than others to the point of having the best NET impact results to date. They are the B12 of this year, even moreso.

In terms of "tougher" games (out of 5 leagues)
SEC is
5th in Q1 win% (20%, avg 37%)
4th in Q1 margin (-4.9, avg -1.8)
4th in Q1+Q2 win% and margin.
4th in head to head win% (9-15, 37%)

But here is what they are doing in Q4 Margin. which is still about 65% of games for most leagues (and it will be over 50% by the end as well)

SEC - 30.1
ACC - 26.5
BE - 23.7
B10 - 23.4
B12 - 22.1

It's a big gap between SEC and the others -- ACC is close enough.
B10 and B12 are easily the best in quality games, but then the worst in cupcake games.
 
It was a really good night for the ACC, except for BC

4-0 in head to head games (note I count Q1 and Q2 games against non P5 conference teams in this figure). Good to see 3 close wins, after losing a lot of these type of games earlier. Some good margin wins by Duke, California, SMU and Florida St. SMU's had the biggest NET impact - beating team #160 by 31.

EDIT (Crap at end of night) - As I type this Stanford blew a nice lead against Seattle and looks like they will lose. Seattle is not terrible at #120, but still a "bad loss". And Cal was on pace for a 40 point win at the 10 minute mark. and they win by 24.

Those results move from good down to solid.
 
In terms of NET impact due to the above SEC is back to #1, and they opened the gap against ACC who is #2..

But winning head to head will help your perception too. And B10 going 15-5 in head to head, makes me think could be the best conference so far. Especially since the SEC is garbage in this regard.
 
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jncuse said:
In terms of conference head to head games.

1. B10 13-5 (72%)
2. B12 16-7 (70%)
3. ACC 7-11 (39%)
4. SEC 8-13 (38%)
5. BE 3-13 (19%)

As noted a number of times, while the SEC and ACC do well in the margin game against Q4 teams, they don't deliver in competitive games.
Expand...
Yesterday’s results were great for the ACC. Clemson’s win especially. It was the first time West Virginia gave up 70 points in 28 games! (Incredible stat).

We should now be 10 and 11 in power conference versus power conference games. Sunday Virginia and Clemson have a chance to make us 12 and 11.

Neither team is facing a juggernaut in Georgia and Butler.
 
KenPom by rank of team from beginning of year...
Its about 9 spots on average for the first 12 spots.

That being said from rank #13-#18 its been pretty stagnant from pre-season expectations (Notre Dame, Pitt, Cal, Stanford, Georgia Tech, Boston College).

Teams are listed by ranking, so might not be the same team in #4 preseason vs #4 now.

Preseason - Now
#1. 7 - 1
#2. 14 - 9
#3. 32 - 19
#4 33 - 27
#5 38 - 29
#6 43 - 35
#7 49 - 44
#8 59 - 48
#9 63 - 54
#10 68 - 57
#11 70 - 59
#12 71 - 64
#13 76 - 75
#14 77 - 78
#15 87 - 79
#16 89 - 91
#17 90 - 95
#18 96 - 115
 
Getting back to my point above and teams #13-#18. Conference can't have 6 teams below 75 in the NET... other than BC they also aren't total hot garbage, so they can cause problems. Need to get a few more to climb into the top 75. (a few of Notre Dame, Cal, Stanford, Tech, Pitt, BC need to step up before January 1)

Ranks of 76+ are troublesome under NET, because they limit opportunities and cause "bad".

Beat the #75 team at home - Q2 Win (adds to resume)
Beat the #76 team at home - Q3 Win (win with no value)

Lose to the #75 team at home - Q2 Loss (not a bad loss)
Lose to the #76 team at home - Q3, Bad Loss

Beat #75 team on road - Q1 Win
Beat #76 team on road - Q2 Win

Lose to #75 team on road - Q1 Loss
Lose to #76 team on road - Q2 Loss
 
Using archive.org, I was able to look at KP's at December 31, 2024, before entering the conference play. The difference between where the conference is as of today, versus where it was entering conference play last year is quite large. Especially in the middle 9 of the conference, where the 6th to 14th best of the conference, are well ahead of where the comparative 6th to 14th were entering last year. Of course this means navigating the ACC will be much tougher this year, but once you get to .500 your resume is going to possibly be tourney worthy depending on a few factors in terms of what else you did..

Current vs December 31, 2024
1 2
10 22
19 29
27 30
31 41
43 58
44 73
46 87
50 91
56 92
60 93
63 102
73 107
78 108
92 121
95 134
97 149
115 176
 

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