Tracking the ACC vs Other Leagues (2025/2026)

[jncuse]

SEC this year vs last year

Q4 Margin: 29.6 (2025) vs 27.9 (2024)
Q1 Margin: negative 7.4 (2025) vs positive 2.7 (2024 - next best was negative 4.0)
Q1 Win%: - 18% vs 60% (next best in 2024 was 36%)
Q1+Q2: 31% vs 69% (next best in 2024 was 44%
Against Other Powers - 38% vs 76% (next best was B10 at 50%)

Its only 16 head to head matchups compared to 89.
But 6-10 compared to 67-22 is a massive difference.

They are not going to come close to 67-22.

Still doing well in margin game so it hasn't been a disaster for them... but they might just be a 8 or 9 bid league this year.

 

[jncuse]

SEC this year vs last year

Q4 Margin: 29.6 (2025) vs 27.9 (2024)
Q1 Margin: negative 7.4 (2025) vs positive 2.7 (2024 - next best was negative 4.0)
Q1 Win%: - 18% vs 60% (next best in 2024 was 36%)
Q1+Q2: 31% vs 69% (next best in 2024 was 44%
Against Other Powers - 38% vs 76% (next best was B10 at 50%)

Its only 16 head to head matchups compared to 89.
But 6-10 compared to 67-22 is a massive difference.

They are not going to come close to 67-22.

Still doing well in margin game so it hasn't been a disaster for them... but they might just be a 8 or 9 bid league this year.

And now the ACC
Q4 Margin: 28.3 (2025) vs 19.2 (2024)
Q1 Margin: 0.5 (2025) vs negative 8.8
Q1 Win%: - 38% vs 20%
Q1+Q2: 46% vs 26%
Against Other Powers - 44% (6-7) vs 26% (20-54)

As a note Q1 win% doesn't look great, but its rare for conference to be 50% or above. That is because some games are Q1 for road teams, and Q2 for home teams.

The big improvement so far is margin.
But still doing far better in tougher matchups -- next few weeks will be telling in this regard.

 

[jncuse]

After week 2, here is the high level summary.

ACC still the best in terms of margin, which has the highest NET impact. Margin of 21.3 vs average of 17.6. That being ACC schedule is a bit softer, but adjusting for that ACC still the highest.

The above being noted, while the ACC/SEC are excelling at the margin game, when leagues face other, the B10 and B12 have been clearly ahead (so far)

So its really hard to rank the conference right now, and where they might be heading. In terms of NET, its quite possible that the ACC/SEC are in the lead. But that is largely based on Q4. Head to head is not irrelevant either, and more of those are coming.

I think the ACC is ahead of the SEC right now. (because they have in margin and quality games)

Its clear that the Big East is well behind. Not quite as bad as ACC 2024 yet, but they may be getting there.

 

[jncuse]

Beyond win%, looking at margin.

In Q1 games B12 is best.
ACC is 3-7 in Q1 games, but they have kept the losses close, so the margin is small (-1.1)
The SEC is 2-10 in Q1 games, and their margin is far worst at -6.8.

Don't look much at Q2+Q3 -- those samples are quite small.

Look a lot at Q4 - that is 71% of the total ACC games (48 of 68 games), and 67% of games for other conferences. The SEC and ACC are well ahead of the B10 and B12 in that regard.

Very early, but the ACC is doing that the B12 did in prior years.

 

[DomeHolmes]

looking at the games, ACC underdogs except Pitt and Miami have played well. Notre Dame and Wake had tough losses.

But I think we were underdogs in at least 9 or 10 of the 15 games we played.

We haven’t had our top teams Duke, NC, Louisville, play Rutgers, DePaul, UCF, etc.

Off the top of my head, UNC, Ville, Duke, VT, and SMU all played peer teams. We haven’t had any opportunities to punch down yet.

 

[jncuse]

looking at the games, ACC underdogs except Pitt and Miami have played well. Notre Dame and Wake had tough losses.

But I think we were underdogs in at least 9 or 10 of the 15 games we played.

We haven’t had our top teams Duke, NC, Louisville, play Rutgers, DePaul, UCF, etc.

Off the top of my head, UNC, Ville, Duke, VT, and SMU all played peer teams. We haven’t had any opportunities to punch down yet.

Its certainly possible that the lack of punch down games is a possibility that is skewing the win %.
I measure the "SOS" of who they are facing and its in line with others But I didn't measure the strength of the ACC team playing either which could be the problem.

We shall see in a few weeks.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Between now and Sunday:

Virginia at Northwestern
Virginia at Butler
Kansas at Duke
Louisville at Cincinnati
West Virginia at Clemson
Wake at Texas tech

I feel pretty good about getting at least three, but maybe more likely 4-2.

UVA is probably better than Northwestern or Butler, but both are on the road.

I expect Duke and Louisville to win. But I again a road game for ville.

Wake played well against Michigan. Maybe they could steal one here.

Lowest confidence in Clemson

Our three games where we finally have an opportunity to “punch down“ are all on the road.

Teams other than Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina need to make some noise.

 

[jncuse]

Rough night for the ACC in the "margin" game. Although the SEC had a tough night as well.
Thankfully SMU pumped #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff by 46, and Duke had a double digit win over Kansas.

But really close games:
Geogia Tech by 2 over #238 Georgia Southern
Syracuse by 5 over #234 Monmouth
Cal by 5 over #295 Presbertyrian (4 minutes left)

UNC, Florida St and BC beat top half Q4 teams by 12, 14 and 11 respectively. So below standard.

 

[jncuse]

B10 has closed the margin gap with the ACC and SEC. Still #3, but its now quite close. Given their Q1 and head to head performance, I have to rank them #1.

Right now I have
1. B10
2. ACC
3. SEC / Big 12

 

[jncuse]

A few more so/so nights for the ACC, and a very so/so week ACC has had a tough margin week,

ACC has now lost the lead in the "Margin" category. They had held it the past few week In brackets is a ratio of margin/SOS difficulty

1. SEC 20.0 (9.3%)
2. ACC 19.8 (9.1%)
3. B10 17.9 (8.8%)
4. B12 15.5 (8.2%)
5. BE 13.9 (6.6%)

This week the average of all team fell from 8.5% to 8.4%, but the ACC has fell from 9.7% to 9.1%,

 

[jncuse]

In terms of conference head to head games.

1. B10 13-5 (72%)
2. B12 16-7 (70%)
3. ACC 7-11 (39%)
4. SEC 8-13 (38%)
5. BE 3-13 (19%)

As noted a number of times, while the SEC and ACC do well in the margin game against Q4 teams, they don't deliver in competitive games.

 

[jncuse]

If you asked me for overall impact come tourney time

1. B10 (Margin right up there, but winning head to head)
2. SEC
3. ACC
4. B12

You could argue the B12 should be ahead of both the SEC and ACC due to quality wins record, but despite winning they are not doing great in the NET margin game. The exact opposite of prior years

 

[jncuse]

To make it clear, while the ACC is slipping, and could be argued as low as #4, it is nowhere near as bad as where it was at last year, and they are in range with all the other conferences between #1-#4.

Last year they were in a league of their own.

 

[Yeti]

Just winning like half of these close ooc games would go so far to improving perception. It feels like the acc team loses every 3 point game lol.