Tracking the ACC vs Other Leagues (2025/2026)

[jncuse]

Schools over 75. ACC still has the most. They also started the worst. The hope is that there are a few schools from B12,B10, SEC that drop as preseason weights fall.

ACC 5 (28%)
B12 4 (25%)
B10 3 (17%
BE 3 (27%)
SEC 1 (9%)

Could be a bit of a problem, but I don't think a major one. Last year entering OOC it was 11 instead of 5.

 

[jncuse]

Despite being 9-17 (34%) in head to head games, (only slightly better than the BE at 33%) the SEC is still best situated to take advantage of the NET driven by Q4 games

ACC was #1 in margin race at end of last week, but it was a tougher week as seen below.
Still in #2 though.

Current margin race
1. SEC 9.40% (margin/diffculty)
2. ACC 8.96%
3. BIG 8.49%
4. B12 7.82%
5. BE 6.68%


It wasn't a great week for ACC. Here are week 3 results.
1. SEC 9.50%
2. Big East 8.09%
3. ACC 7.16% (big gap from SEC)
4. B12 7.11%
5. B12 6.30%

It was a decent comeback week for Big East, but they are still well behind.

 

[jncuse]

So I updated the results from the last few days. Big East is #5 by a decent mark so we can leave them out of the discussion.

Its not-straightforward assessing the top 4. My conclusion is it could be a fairly even distribution amongst the 4, which will be far better than prior years,

• The clear two best in Margin (adjusted for schedule) are still the SEC and the ACC, because of Q4 games (which are still about 60% of your games). And that drives NET. Big 12 is worse in margin. SEC 9.30, ACC 9.01, B10 8.33, B12 7.76, BE 6.59. These could move, but it would take a lot of bad play by the ACC to get down to 4.
• The clear top two in head to head and top game W/L performance is still clearly the other two conferences.

Big 12 ; 25-15
Big 10: 22-15
ACC: 15-16
SEC: 12-21


I'll put it this way:
From individual team resumes perspective, looking at purely OOC W's and L's the B10 and B12 will benefit the most. ACC members are meh in this regard.

BUT, OOC drives the quality of your opponents in conference play (the NET factor). So this could help the ACC gets as many quality wins as other conferences.

 

[jncuse]

Head to head records
1. B12 33-17 (66%)
2. B10 27-18 (60%)
3. ACC 18-22 (45%) vs 20-54 last year
4. SEC 16-25 (41%)
5. BE 10-21 (33%0

So based on this is the B12 the best conference?
Could be - but they are also 4th in margin. Well behind the SEC, ACC and B10.

Will be interesting to see what conference does best in the first NET. If the SEC has the best NET rankings, its pretty clear evidence that margin is driving the NET. And will be interesting to see how they compare to the average B12 team.

Thankfully for the ACC, they all did very well in the Q4 games (#2), so that should generally pay dividends in the first NET. They have certainly been "mid" the last few weeks.

 

[RedtheGOB]

Head to head records
1. B12 33-17 (66%)
2. B10 27-18 (60%)
3. ACC 18-22 (45%) vs 20-54 last year
4. SEC 16-25 (41%)
5. BE 10-21 (33%0

So based on this is the B12 the best conference?
Could be - but they are also 4th in margin. Well behind the SEC, ACC and B10.

Will be interesting to see what conference does best in the first NET. If the SEC has the best NET rankings, its pretty clear evidence that margin is driving the NET. And will be interesting to see how they compare to the average B12 team.

Thankfully for the ACC, they all did very well in the Q4 games (#2), so that should generally pay dividends in the first NET. They have certainly been "mid" the last few weeks.

Funny how I felt Mid on Tuesday with this team and Toilet on Wednesday with this team.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Big 12 is absolutely loaded. SEC is down from last year. Big 10 has several really good teams. ACC has Duke and everybody else. I’m not sure who is the second best team. Carolina can’t shoot and can struggle to score. There are a bunch of solid teams in the ACC but not top 15-20.

 

[RedtheGOB]

Big 12 is absolutely loaded. SEC is down from last year. Big 10 has several really good teams. ACC has Duke and everybody else. I’m not sure who is the second best team. Carolina can’t shoot and can struggle to score. There are a bunch of solid teams in the ACC but not top 15-20.

I agree. The only way we’re making the tourney and Autry isn’t out on his butt is if we win 14 ACC games. Highly Unlikely.

I know people are livid at Autry and I am too but when I look around the ACC I see a lot of teams that look like us.

Plenty of teams fall into the category of close loss to a top team same as us. Just a Quick Look. Very few ACC teams looked good in these preseason tourneys. I counted 6 ACC teams losing their opening rounds and another 3 their 2nd round to much easier competition than we played, many to worse teams and def not to 10-15 competition. Then most of the rest of the ACC didn’t even play a tourney and chose to beat up more mid majors or cupcakes.

A lot off uncertainty still what happens in the ACC this year. I figure we need to be top 5 to feel safe and that should be the goal at this point. Even better a top 4 double bye for ACCT

 

[Cusefan0307]

Big 12 is absolutely loaded. SEC is down from last year. Big 10 has several really good teams. ACC has Duke and everybody else. I’m not sure who is the second best team. Carolina can’t shoot and can struggle to score. There are a bunch of solid teams in the ACC but not top 15-20.

Louisville is very good.

 

[Cuse_NYC]

Man o man there are some bad acc teams. Maybe we can actually be over .500

 

[jncuse]

The ACC is far stronger than it has been in prior years especially when it comes to BET Not to say its great, but its not that far behind the other big 3 conferences. Although they are now settling into #4 especially from the eye test and results test against better teams. But we also the NET is heavily influenced by Q4 Margin, since Q4 games are more than half the sample of OOC games -- and the ACC is strong in that. A flaw within NET, but one that should help Syracuse if its get wins.

I agree the B12 is the best... but thankfully for the ACC a lot is derived from Q4 margin. B12 benefitted from that in prior years, and now this year when they are actually far better in head to head, Q4 margin is biting them in the butt.

 

[RedtheGOB]

The ACC is far stronger than it has been in prior years especially when it comes to BET Not to say its great, but its not that far behind the other big 3 conferences. Although they are now settling into #4 especially from the eye test and results test against better teams. But we also the NET is heavily influenced by Q4 Margin, since Q4 games are more than half the sample of OOC games -- and the ACC is strong in that. A flaw within NET, but one that should help Syracuse if its get wins.

I agree the B12 is the best... but thankfully for the ACC a lot is derived from Q4 margin. B12 benefitted from that in prior years, and now this year when they are actually far better in head to head, Q4 margin is biting them in the butt.

My gut is saying that the whole ACC looks very similar. talent upgrades but unproven coaches. No more of these 7th year players. A lot of youth to manage.

We’re all in the same boat. Imagine Wake forest now watching Michigan. they had them on the ropes too and missed their chance too same as us with Houston.

 

[jncuse]

I agree. The only way we’re making the tourney and Autry isn’t out on his butt is if we win 14 ACC games. Highly Unlikely.

I know people are livid at Autry and I am too but when I look around the ACC I see a lot of teams that look like us.

Plenty of teams fall into the category of close loss to a top team same as us. Just a Quick Look. Very few ACC teams looked good in these preseason tourneys. I counted 6 ACC teams losing their opening rounds and another 3 their 2nd round to much easier competition than we played, many to worse teams and def not to 10-15 competition. Then most of the rest of the ACC didn’t even play a tourney and chose to beat up more mid majors or cupcakes.

A lot off uncertainty still what happens in the ACC this year. I figure we need to be top 5 to feel safe and that should be the goal at this point. Even better a top 4 double bye for ACCT

They won't need to get to 14 wins. 11 wins is my preliminary more likely than not number, 12 for sure. You are for sure going to see some ACC teams getting in with 10-8 conference records this year - something you did not see in the prior years. The ACC has done comparatively well in the margin / NET game, although slowing down from first two weeks. That will help with Q1 and Q2.

The ACC is following the road map of the B12 in prior years - beating crappy Q4 teams up better than others. Even if they end up #4 in OOC, the gap between them and #1-#3 will not be that large. Last year there was a canyon between the ACC and the SEC, and even the B10.

 

[jncuse]

My gut is saying that the whole ACC looks very similar. talent upgrades but unproven coaches. No more of these 7th year players. A lot of youth to manage.

We’re all in the same boat. Imagine Wake forest now watching Michigan. they had them on the ropes too and missed their chance too same as us with Houston.

To be clear I think the NET flaws is going to make the ACC better than they really are. I don't think they are a great conference, and by the eye test I have them at #4. Its the flaw in the NET system that does nothing to diminish the impact of Q4 games that will help the ACC teams get more Q1/Q2 wins than prior years. There is going to be a lot of teams in that 30-75 area compared to last year.

And its not only Q4 games they are better in
Head to head against the P5 they are 21-25*. Not a terrible record, not good, but 3rd best amonst the P5. (* also includes Q1/Q2 games outside of the P5)

But then you compare it to 20-54 abomination last year, and can see the ACC has made some strides.

 

[jncuse]

We will find out more when the first NET comes out on December 1.
But I think the ACC is going to be generally happy with what gets spit out due to the NET flaws.

And the middle of the B12 may not be that strong in the NET, even if those middle teams have nice wins.

I'm generally interested in seeing what the NET will spit out, because depth wise two conferences have excelled in good games, and the 2 other conferences have done the best in crap games.

I know what should matter more, but the NET doesn't work like that.

 

[RedtheGOB]

They won't need to get to 14 wins. 11 wins is my preliminary more likely than not number, 12 for sure. You are for sure going to see some ACC teams getting in with 10-8 conference records this year - something you did not see in the prior years. The ACC has done comparatively well in the margin / NET game, although slowing down from first two weeks. That will help with Q1 and Q2.

The ACC is following the road map of the B12 in prior years - beating crappy Q4 teams up better than others. Even if they end up #4 in OOC, the gap between them and #1-#3 will not be that large. Last year there was a canyon between the ACC and the SEC, and even the B10.

14 is the # I thought that might stop people from chirping . We all know just making the tourney as a play in is not enough for most here ha. Not really for me either.

 

[jncuse]

14 is the # I thought that might stop people from chirping . We all know just making the tourney is not enough for most here ha.

I could be totally wrong too.

I think 11 is probably enough. I'm not sure though if the team is capable of winning 11 though. I'd like the team to at least get to 11, and have the chance to admit I was right or wrong.

 

[RedtheGOB]

I could be totally wrong too.

I think 11 is probably enough. I'm not sure though if the team is capable of winning 11 though. I'd like the team to at least get to 11, and have the chance to admit I was right or wrong.

Yea. things are amplified now. Even road losses to the top 2-3 teams in the ACC which are expected will be met with extreme talk to can Autry right away.

He’s just gotta steal a big win and then keep taking care of business. At the same time a A loss to a bottomfeeder and things go real bad

Players and the team know this too. Things can get ugly fast when Autrys on his way out and the tourney becomes a lost cause.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Right now I expect Kansas, Iowa State, Tennessee, and Houston to be top 3 seeds at worst. If we are on the bubble, the quality of our losses might mean something.

We could have drawn Creighton, Houston and Maryland, then South Carolina next week. We’d probably be two and two or better. After Rutgers, we were one of the worst teams in the field based on last year’s results and got the hardest schedule. Same with ACC/SEC. We were mid pack and drew a top tier team. (Conversely Rutgers got ND and UNLV, arguably the three worst teams in the tournament this year). We got screwed by scheduling.

If we could get two or three quad one wins and finish 11-7 with no quad 3 losses, we will be squarely on the bubble. The early Clemson game is huge.

 

[RedtheGOB]

I could be totally wrong too.

I think 11 is probably enough. I'm not sure though if the team is capable of winning 11 though. I'd like the team to at least get to 11, and have the chance to admit I was right or wrong.

1st net rankings come out when? What’s your projection for Cuse?

 

[blust2i3d4]

Right now I expect Kansas, Iowa State, Tennessee, and Houston to be top 3 seeds at worst. If we are on the bubble, the quality of our losses might mean something.

We could have drawn Creighton, Houston and Maryland, then South Carolina next week. We’d probably be two and two or better. After Rutgers, we were one of the worst teams in the field based on last year’s results and got the hardest schedule. Same with ACC/SEC. We were mid pack and drew a top tier team. (Conversely Rutgers got ND and UNLV, arguably the three worst teams in the tournament this year). We got screwed by scheduling.

If we could get two or three quad one wins and finish 11-7 with no quad 3 losses, we will be squarely on the bubble. The early Clemson game is huge.

I think we did not draw the bad schedule. We demanded it. Red thought we could beat Houston. And his plan almost worked. But when the referees refused to let Houston lose, we are like a deflated balloon in the next two days.

 

[jncuse]

1st net rankings come out when? What’s your projection for Cuse?

I'm guessing it will be close to KP -- somewhere around 70. NET has a few different moving parts but generally the same.

 

[jncuse]

SEC vs Big 12

Quad 1
B12: 19-16 (positive 0.2 margin ), 31% of games
SEC: 7-20 (negative 3.6 margin), 23% of games

Quad 1+Quad 2
B12: 34-18 (3.0 margin), 46% of games
SEC: 16-24 (1.0 margin), 34% of games

Quad 4 games
B12 - 21.2 Margin (94% win), 46% of games
SEC - 29.7 Margin (100% win), 56% of games

Who is the better conference?
Who is the better conference according to NET?

 

[jncuse]

SEC vs Big 12

Quad 1
B12: 19-16 (positive 0.2 margin ), 31% of games
SEC: 7-20 (negative 3.6 margin), 23% of games

Quad 1+Quad 2
B12: 34-18 (3.0 margin), 46% of games
SEC: 16-24 (1.0 margin), 34% of games

Quad 4 games
B12 - 21.2 Margin (94% win), 46% of games
SEC - 29.7 Margin (100% win), 56% of games

Who is the better conference?
Who is the better conference according to NET?

To me its clear that so far the B12 is the better conference. Winning 65% of meaningful matches vs the SEC winning 40% of meaningful matches.

But here is the thing;
a) The quality matchups in favour of Big 12 make up about 40% of the games -- and the margin difference between the two is only 2 points despite the big difference in record.
b) The cupcake matchups in favour of SEC make up about 50% of the games -- and the margin difference between the two is 8.5 points.

So in terms of NET, the SEC will be overwhelmingly ahead of the B12, despite doing much more poorly from a W-L% perspective in tougher game. Despite having the fourth best conference Win% in quality games, the SEC will have by far the best NET presence when it is released.

Strategic? Maybe not. B12 took advantage of cupcakes last year. But NET Flaw. Absolutely.

 

[jncuse]

The same NET flaw above should help the ACC as they are #2 in Cupcake Game Margin. And they are #3 in quality matchup win %. So they are hanging around in the top 4 for NET anyway.