Two years ago

[IthacaBarrel]

Being ok at RB is different from being able to reel off a couple 75 yard runs of course. Ideally you want both.

But you start to be just a little dangerous running and the O will start to really kick up a few notches.

Yeah, agreed, 6-15 yard running plays would loosen things up big time.

 

[RMH44]

The DB had to dive after MO just caught his ankle. If MO doesnt look back he scores. Kid is plenty fast

Mo was pulling away from all the DB's except Coleman (#7) who is the same guy who caught Dungey. Only on this board do we get b1tching after 70-plus yard runs!

Remember the horror last year when Estime scored on a long pass/yac but he had the audacity to let a DB close the gap shortly before crossing the goal line?

 

[CuseCrew08]

Mo was pulling away from all the DB's except Coleman (#7) who is the same guy who caught Dungey. Only on this board do we get b1tching after 70-plus yard runs!

It was #7 that caught both guys. He seems to have elite speed.

 

[TheCusian]

I don't have time - but with the system we run, the tempo skews all of the numbers on both sides. Shafer purposely played slow to shorten the game and depend on his D.

Compare yards per play, points per possession, TO's created.

Found some time to check on this. This is somewhat tempo-free (though you'd assume more possessions and the amount of throwing we do now vs the SS era, TO's get affected by an increase in tempo. That's a job for someone else ). I also didn't run the first 4 games of the season like the OP did - mostly because the data for OOC games exists (cfbstats.com) already, to stay true to the OP I'd have to look at the play by play and piece the numbers together. I have some time, but not that kind of time. So this is just comparing OOC data. And the other big caveat is that we haven't played our hardest OOC game yet. Also there is some deviation between schedules - but we're ruthless to our HC's, so there isn't a ton of difference year to year, unfortunately. The other thing to remember is that 2015 was FHCSS 3rd year and we're looking a HCDB's first two seasons.

The numbers kind of work out to what we already know and back up GoSU96 post pretty much. I also included last seasons OCC.

2015 OOC (2-2) under SS
Total O: 5.11 ypp, #104 (#14 in the ACC)
Total D: 6.00 ypp, #97 (#12 in the ACC)
TO margin: 0.25, #56 (#5 in the ACC)

2016 OOC (2-2) under DB
Total O: 6.06 ypp, #50 (#7 in the ACC)
Total D: 5.92 ypp, #96 (#13 in the ACC)
TO margin: -0.50, #96 (#11 in the ACC)

2017 OOC (2-1) under DB
Total O: 5.56 ypp, #84 (#9 in the ACC)
Total D: 4.43 ypp, #30 (#5 in the ACC)
TO margin: 0.00, #64 (#9 in the ACC)

- Improvements everywhere, even in the hard nosed defense dept - year over year. We gave up a crapton more points in Dino's first year compared to SS's last. But a lot of that was giving up big pass plays and an increase in tempo/possesssions.

- The defense appears to have taken the jump that DB has called for in year 2. That's a good sign. LSU might drop a bunch on us, but given their struggles and our improvements, it's more unlikely than it was. We should be a touch bullish on the D, even if Clemson and Louisville hangs 40 on us, IMO. Could be fun for teams that struggle on O (looking at you Pitt and BC).

- The offense is lagging from last years numbers, but how much of that is a weird game vs a former HC and how much is missing AET and Estime? Do we see the 1.5 year bump or does our OL and lack of a running game slow that progress until the end of the year (still looking at you BC)?

- Overall, steady improvement is good. The bump in recruiting hasn't really made a difference yet, but I think it will next season. I still think we can win 6 (CCSU, CMU, PITT, BC, WAKE, and NC State), but 5 is more likely. Wake looks like a tougher hike than PITT (go Atlantic ) and NC State looks more vulnerable that I originally thought (though they will be favored at home).

 

[Millhouse]

Remember the horror last year when Estime scored on a long pass/yac but he had the audacity to let a DB close the gap shortly before crossing the goal line?

Good job remembering that.

 

[PAcuse]

Way is it when a MAC team has a guy with elite speed a foreign concept to people? Guys can be fast and not great at other things AND then end up at a MAC team...Plus you do run faster with the football...

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Way is it when a MAC team has a guy with elite speed a foreign concept to people? Guys can be fast and not great at other things AND then end up at a MAC team...Plus you do run faster with the football...

Crazy talk. If an SU ball carrier is caught from behind it's clearly because we don't have athletes and not because there are some fast guys in the MAC as well. Also angles to consider. The key is finding more opportunities for guys to get open like that, not worrying if they are going to get caught for a 70 or 80 yard gain

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Good job remembering that.

I remember that outrage!!! Lets get a bunch of track stars that can't catch instead

 

[SoBristol]

Found some time ...

2015 OOC (2-2) under SS
Total O: 5.11 ypp, #104 (#14 in the ACC)
Total D: 6.00 ypp, #97 (#12 in the ACC)
TO margin: 0.25, #56 (#5 in the ACC)

2016 OOC (2-2) under DB
Total O: 6.06 ypp, #50 (#7 in the ACC)
Total D: 5.92 ypp, #96 (#13 in the ACC)
TO margin: -0.50, #96 (#11 in the ACC)

2017 OOC (2-1) under DB
Total O: 5.56 ypp, #84 (#9 in the ACC)
Total D: 4.43 ypp, #30 (#5 in the ACC)
TO margin: 0.00, #64 (#9 in the ACC)

- Improvements everywhere, even in the hard nosed defense dept - year over year. We gave up a crapton more points in Dino's first year compared to SS's last. But a lot of that was giving up big pass plays and an increase in tempo/possesssions.

- The defense appears to have taken the jump that DB has called for in year 2. That's a good sign. LSU might drop a bunch on us, but given their struggles and our improvements, it's more unlikely than it was. We should be a touch bullish on the D, even if Clemson and Louisville hangs 40 on us, IMO. Could be fun for teams that struggle on O (looking at you Pitt and BC).

- The offense is lagging from last years numbers, but how much of that is a weird game vs a former HC and how much is missing AET and Estime? Do we see the 1.5 year bump or does our OL and lack of a running game slow that progress until the end of the year (still looking at you BC)?

- Overall, steady improvement is good. The bump in recruiting hasn't really made a difference yet, but I think it will next season. I still think we can win 6 (CCSU, CMU, PITT, BC, WAKE, and NC State), but 5 is more likely. Wake looks like a tougher hike than PITT (go Atlantic ) and NC State looks more vulnerable that I originally thought (though they will be favored at home).

Thanks for all that data.
The defense in 2015 was ridiculously young - same core 4 or 5 in the front seven as we have now. I see the recruiting as making a big difference to the D but it is a lot of jucos and grad transfers, plus a sprinkling of Babers's 2016 recruits (Foster, Bradshaw, Black, Coleman). Those additions plus the LB core and DTs are now 4th year players.
The offense is lagging due to the OL, lack of a premier RB, and missing AET. Riley may be a decent replacement for Estime. I am not sure the stats will show that (given 300 yds rushing vs CM) but you can see that we get very little from basic runs and need to rely on Dungey and the odd play from a change of pace back.
To get to 4 ACC wins we need the defense to continue to improve and we need some breaks with turnovers and specials.

 

[RMH44]

I remember that outrage!!! Lets get a bunch of track stars that can't catch instead

Poor J Kobena...he couldn't catch a cold but was tough as nails and faster snot.

 

[SWC75]

You guys are right and I'm wrong. Amari Coleman is a legitimate "burner" and it's no surprise he caught our guys, even Neal:
New Lothrop's Amari Coleman becomes one of the nation's youngest NCAA Division 1 football recruits

I think the distance was a factor. Neal's play would have been a 90 yard run and Dungey's would have been 80. You're going to slow down towards the end of that and the D-back doesn't have to go as far.

I still didn't like seeing them caught...but there was a good reason for it.