UNC is a big game Sat for a few reasons

[JeremyCuse]

First off an outstanding win on Tuesday night, will try and post about the game in another thread but that was exactly the performance this team needed. Shooting % needs to improve but just about everything else was on point. The Defense and Faceoff guys especially were locked in. Bomber on groundballs was the best I have seen since Joel White. A very very impressive performance. It's games like that why John Desko is still the coach of this team.

As for UNC, this game is bigger then people realize for a few reasons.
1. With SU at 1-2 in the ACC a loss on Saturday would put us in a real bad spot. We would be locked into the 4/5 game and unless UNC beats ND on the road next Saturday and Duke beats UVA tomorrow were looking at a first round matchup with the Blue Devils. I can't speak for most on this board but I have to believe just about all of us would prefer to miss the 4/5 game if at all possible. An SU win on Sat guarantees us at worst the 3 seed and we can get as high as the 2 depending on how things break.

2. For as much goodwill as SU earned itself with the win against Cornell on Tuesday a loss against UNC would muddy the tourney waters all over again. SU would still be in really good shape to make the tourney itself but the thoughts of a good/high seed and a home game are probably out the window unless SU wins a game or two in the ACC tourney that would have to start as I noted above against either ND or Duke. It also puts pressure on SU to blow out Navy the following week on the road who will be playing with nothing to lose.

SU doesn't need to pay lights out tomorrow but if we can get anything close to the kind of defensive effort tomorrow that we had against Cornell and avoid turning the ball over like were Hobart this is a game we should be able to win and win by a few goals. UNC is obviously an improved team from earlier in the year and even a few weeks ago when Maryland dusted them and the game was over at half. That said they are still a relatively young team who turns the ball over a ton and commits a lot of penalties. Their frosh goalie has looked impressive the last few weeks and SU will need to improve it shooting %, especially from Trimbo and Curry but SU defensively is locked in right now and I hope that continues. Very interested to see how SU decides to match up defensively.

 

[GoSU96]

Agree with all of that. This team can be a contender if the middies improve their efficiency.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Agree with all of that. This team can be a contender if the middies improve their efficiency.

Tuesdays game was a near complete 60 min performance save for shooting from the midfield
Trimboli was 1-10 , Curry 2-8, Lipka 0-6

Hard to see SU winning a lot of games when the starting midfield is 3-24. Some of that was Ierlan making some nice saves but more of that was SU shooting off cage or hitting him in the chest. Trimbo adjusted earlier this year after Ryan Powell and others (this board) kept drilling him about shooting high to high. He had great success going low but now goalies are starting to hedge against him low, he needs to mix in a few high hard ones.

Lipka just had an off game, got some good looks but did't finish. He should get a lot of chances this week, need a big game from him.

Curry continues to blaze by guys and take some bad beats with hitting pipes but his shooting % is the most concerning. He was 0-6 against ND, 1-6 against Hobart, and 2-8 against Cornell. We can afford for one of the starting middies to be off but SU is going struggle if he and Trimbo are shooting poorly. Hope he gets back on track on Saturday.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Carolina has about 7 guys with serious potential to be a threat, but they are fortunately inconsistent.

-Cook is a big Canadian who can really victimize smaller short sticks and is an excellent outside shooter/finisher, but he somehow will go for games without doing anything major. He is also a dirty player and a cheater. There is footage of him warding/literally grabbing defenders sticks to finish one handed with the other hand and he clearly left his feet to deliver an intentional elbow to the head of a Hopkins player this year that would have led to fines and/or suspensions in the NFL or NHL. But we have a Bomberry if he wants to try any cheap stuff.

-Trippi had a big game against us last year and could certainly be a problem when not dodging against our poles. Very shifty and has a knack for finding the goal when he can get open off a dodge. Solomon appears to be playing like his senior brother as a freshman. Lethal finisher who can also make things happen on his own on occasion.

-William Perry is a serious middie threat and should get the LSM whenever possible. Quick with an insanely fast shot. If there is one concern it could be him exploiting a short stick matchup. He will most likely draw some slides

-I’m not too worried about Timmy Kelly or Matthews actually. Cunningham has had a great season and should be able to handle one of the two. I keep waiting for Kelly to blow up the stat sheet but it hasn’t happened. He is strong for his size but maybe not quite fast enough to take over games. Mellen should take care of him without too much trouble if that is the matchup. Matthews is pretty good but not good enough to blow by Cunningham at will. If Piatelli can’t I doubt he can.

- Haven't seen much of Justin Anderson or the younger Kelly but they are clearly making an impact as far as stats are concerned

Their offensive talent is similar to ours in many ways. Offense by committee but wow does that committee have some depth. I would say ours has proven to be more effective this year, but they are clearly dangerous.

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Since I don't follow UNC to closely Tanner Cook is an enigma to me. I remember last season early against Hopkins he pretty much won them that game, think he had 5 goals but he disappeared for a lot of the rest of last year and honestly the parts of the Carolina games I have caught this year (Denver, MD, Duke) he's almost unnoticeable out there.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Since I don't follow UNC to closely Tanner Cook is an enigma to me. I remember last season early against Hopkins he pretty much won them that game, think he had 5 goals but he disappeared for a lot of the rest of last year and honestly the parts of the Carolina games I have caught this year (Denver, MD, Duke) he's almost unnoticeable out there.

He's fallen out of the starting 6 and is running on the 2nd mid line and hasn't scored a goal the last three games. We will need to keep an eye on him when he's out there but he isn't seeing that much time.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Carolina has about 7 guys with serious potential to be a threat, but they are fortunately inconsistent.

-Cook is a big Canadian who can really victimize smaller short sticks and is an excellent outside shooter/finisher, but he somehow will go for games without doing anything major. He is also a dirty player and a cheater. There is footage of him warding/literally grabbing defenders sticks to finish one handed with the other hand and he clearly left his feet to deliver an intentional elbow to the head of a Hopkins player this year that would have led to fines and/or suspensions in the NFL or NHL. But we have a Bomberry if he wants to try any cheap stuff.

-Trippi had a big game against us last year and could certainly be a problem when not dodging against our poles. Very shifty and has a knack for finding the goal when he can get open off a dodge. Solomon appears to be playing like his senior brother as a freshman. Lethal finisher who can also make things happen on his own on occasion.

-William Perry is a serious middie threat and should get the LSM whenever possible. Quick with an insanely fast shot. If there is one concern it could be him exploiting a short stick matchup. He will most likely draw some slides

-I’m not too worried about Timmy Kelly or Matthews actually. Cunningham has had a great season and should be able to handle one of the two. I keep waiting for Kelly to blow up the stat sheet but it hasn’t happened. He is strong for his size but maybe not quite fast enough to take over games. Mellen should take care of him without too much trouble if that is the matchup. Matthews is pretty good but not good enough to blow by Cunningham at will. If Piatelli can’t I doubt he can.

- Haven't seen much of Justin Anderson or the younger Kelly but they are clearly making an impact as far as stats are concerned

Their offensive talent is similar to ours in many ways. Offense by committee but wow does that committee have some depth. I would say ours has proven to be more effective this year, but they are clearly dangerous.

Good post, agree on a lot of what you said.

Carolina is a lot like us especially last years team with a mix of veterans but a lot of young guys. Breschi has mixed things up the last month or so and they even ran 3 true frosh at attack against Duke. I could be wrong but I believe they have moved Timmy Kelly to middie and they are running Solomon, Jacob Kelly and Matthews as the starting attackmen. Their depth of scoring has made defending them difficult as you noted because there isn't 1-2 guys to key in on. The starting midfield seems to be Timmy Kelly Justin Anderson and the aforementioned Trippi. Tough decision on who to pole as Trippi caused us problems last year but I think you have to put Fusco/Kenendy on Timmy Kelly. William Perry has also started a bunch of games and is 4th in scoring with 21 pts. He seems to be running a 2nd mid line with Tanner Cook but will see time with the starters as well. Matthews and Timmy Kelly are both Seniors who SU should be very familiar with the younger attack guys are a bit of a concern as SU can sometimes struggle with guys they see for the first time.

From a d perspective I suspect SU will put Mellen on Matthews as he is the main playmaker with 15 assists. Nicky Solomon is third in points with 24 and has taken on a bigger role the last few weeks in the offense. I wouldn't be shocked if Desko/Rodgers decided to put Mellen on him. Cunningham is coming off two real nice games and should draw either Solomon or Matthews depending on Mellen's matchup. Bomberry doesn't have a matchup that really jumps out as Jacob Kelly is listed at 5'10 and is a smaller/jitterbug type attackmen. He like Cunningham is coming off an outstanding D performance but Kelly is a bit of an odd matchup for him. They do have a 6'3 frosh attackmen who rotates in - Brian Camerson who is a crease guy who Bomberry matches up with perfectly at least on paper.

Biggest concern here is UNC's depth of scoring and our own offense. Guys like Tanner Cook and William Perry are prior starters on the 2nd mid line who can do damage when they are in. UNC has more of a depth of scoring then pretty much any team SU has seen this year. Going to need a team effort tomorrow like we did against Hobart and Cornell as Mellen shutting down his guy isn't going to mean what it usually does.

Offensively SU should get a lot of looks but we will need better shot placement. The UNC goalie has been playing out of his mind the last few weeks with 19 saves against Duke and another 12 last week against a really good UVA offense. UNC's D is decent and actually plays a lot of veterans but commits a crap ton of penalties and you can get them on tilt. Rowlett is their best defender and he isn't adverse to a cheap shot. Peden and Nathan the other two close D starters are also seniors like Rowlett so its definitely an experienced group. Macri the LSM is decent but with Rowlett having to bump down to close a majority of the time they aren't as strong there. They lost some good SSDM to graduation the last few years so their also not as strong there. Will be interesting to see if the attack unit can keep up the last two games where all 3 have been playing well. I wouldn't be surprised if UNC tried to double pole the midfield and put a shorty on Voigt. UNC isn't nearly ad deep on D as they are on offense, Phaup and the FOGO's winning a bunch can help wear these guys down. Our Solomon needs to play within himself and not get to hyped up. He's done a good job this year with the dumb penalties as such, we need him to keep it under control on Sat as well.

 

[sholokov2]

First off an outstanding win on Tuesday night, will try and post about the game in another thread but that was exactly the performance this team needed. Shooting % needs to improve but just about everything else was on point. The Defense and Faceoff guys especially were locked in. Bomber on groundballs was the best I have seen since Joel White. A very very impressive performance. It's games like that why John Desko is still the coach of this team.

As for UNC, this game is bigger then people realize for a few reasons.
1. With SU at 1-2 in the ACC a loss on Saturday would put us in a real bad spot. We would be locked into the 4/5 game and unless UNC beats ND on the road next Saturday and Duke beats UVA tomorrow were looking ear at a first round matchup with the Blue Devils. I can't speak for most on this board but I have to believe just about all of us would prefer to miss the 4/5 game if at all possible. An SU win on Sat guarantees us at worst the 3 seed and we can get as high as the 2 depending on how things break.

2. For as much goodwill as SU earned itself with the win against Cornell on Tuesday a loss against UNC would muddy the tourney waters all over again. SU would still be in really good shape to make the tourney itself but the thoughts of a good/high seed and a home game are probably out the window unless SU wins a game or two in the ACC tourney that would have to start as I noted above against either ND or Duke. It also puts pressure on SU to blow out Navy the following week on the road who will be playing with nothing to lose.

SU doesn't need to pay lights out tomorrow but if we can get anything close to the kind of defensive effort tomorrow that we had against Cornell and avoid turning the ball over like were Hobart this is a game we should be able to win and win by a few goals. UNC is obviously an improved team from earlier in the year and even a few weeks ago when Maryland dusted them and the game was over at half. That said they are still a relatively young team who turns the ball over a ton and commits a lot of penalties. Their frosh goalie has looked impressive the last few weeks and SU will need to improve it shooting %, especially from Trimbo and Curry but SU defensively is locked in right now and I hope that continues. Very interested to see how SU decides to match up defensively.

Beating UNC by a few goals would surprise me. I have seen them twice this year. In an early game they were horrible. In the second they were very impressive on both ends of the field. For me its a tossup.

 

[Powellfan]

Thanks for starting this Jeremey, good points as always. The number one concern for me is the Carolina goalie, I watched most of the Duke-UNC game and he was outstanding. The Orange have to take good shots and not get discouraged if he steals a few. They've done a good job of putting up a lot of shots, need to just keep chipping away. Hoping Rhefuss keeps up the good play.

Agree with the posts already made about the defensive matchups, I think Mellen guards Mathews. UNC hasn't scored more than 10 goals against a top 20 team but they are very very deep. I like how the SU defense matches up across the field - I think having bigger/strong/faster defensemen, especially in the midfield is really paying dividends this season.

Mindset has me worried about this game. UNC isn't having a great season but they could really cause trouble if they win this game. Last year I think SU thought the Tar Heel game would be a walk in the park and it took an incredible performance by Curry to steal the late victory. Orange can't afford to get over-confident here.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Beating UNC by a few goals would surprise me. I have seen them twice this year. In an early game they were horrible. In the second they were very impressive on both ends of the field. For me its a tossup.

UNC is a good team but an inconsistent one. I fully suspect that like the last 3 UNC games this has 1 goal game written all over it but when you look at how well the Defense has been playing and the 1-2 punch SU has at the X its a game we could win by a few goals. SU the last two games has looked a lot like Maryland - very stout D, Good at the X and in cage and an opportunistic offense. Maryland destroyed UNC (it was much worse then the score) and I think that if SU plays a similar game to how we did against Hobart and Cornell (and not turning the ball over) SU can win by 3 goals+. All that said SU can also easily lose this game as we have seen earlier this year when SU plays poorly, is turning the ball over, getting little from the attack etc.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Thanks for starting this Jeremey, good points as always. The number one concern for me is the Carolina goalie, I watched most of the Duke-UNC game and he was outstanding. The Orange have to take good shots and not get discouraged if he steals a few. They've done a good job of putting up a lot of shots, need to just keep chipping away. Hoping Rhefuss keeps up the good play.

Agree with the posts already made about the defensive matchups, I think Mellen guards Mathews. UNC hasn't scored more than 10 goals against a top 20 team but they are very very deep. I like how the SU defense matches up across the field - I think having bigger/strong/faster defensemen, especially in the midfield is really paying dividends this season.

Mindset has me worried about this game. UNC isn't having a great season but they could really cause trouble if they win this game. Last year I think SU thought the Tar Heel game would be a walk in the park and it too k an incredible performance by Curry to steal the late victory. Orange can't afford to get over-confident here.

Your last Paragraph is a major concern and 100% spot on.

 

[Laxwizard22]

Really excited for this one-I think everyone has made a ton of great points and has covered about everything. They are playing their best lacrosse at the moment and they have an outstanding goalie. I’m confident in this group however, and I think we’ll pull away in the 4th

 

[Bspalax]

If SU wins this game, it should be a lock for the championship tourney. Their RPI and 7 wins against top 20 will be enough no matter what happens in the ACC.

Reyfuss is coming on at the right time. I expect Curry to shoot his way out of his current funk, which will force early slides, opening up voight and Solomon.

Need to avoid the slow start and take it to the heels.

 

[tbonezone]

call me old fashioned but i expect dominance and excellence from SU lax. if we give up that ....
we're everybody else.