Updated season forecast

[Crusty]

Now that we are 3-0 and we know a bit about our opponents AND assuming Dungey is OK and returns by the USF game (at the latest), what is your updated forecast?

Mine are:
Best 10-2 (lose to LSU and FSU. Very low probability and everything would have to break our way - truly a dream season.

Worst 4-7 (beat only BC the rest of the way) Also. very low probability, but higher than the best scenario. If this happens it will most likely be our secondary not holding up and the injury bug biting again.

Most likely 6-6 (probably beat USF, Pitt and BC) Could go to 7-5 if we beat UVA, however the game is away and UVA has a pretty good passing game. This one could be a shootout.

In other words, the season can go either way depending on a number of factors. One thing is for sure and that is that the secondary needs to improve or there will be a great deal of heartburn in Orange Nation.

What do you think?

 

[PAcuse]

7-5 wins over USF, Pitt, BC, and UVA. UVA does have a nice passing attack, just have a feeling we can get this one.

 

[jekelish]

I'm sticking with the same as I had preseason...6-6 or 7-5. Some of our opponents are worse than I anticipated, but they are the same opponents I thought we had a chance to beat anyway.

 

[orange_in_VA]

Now that we are 3-0 and we know a bit about our opponents AND assuming Dungey is OK and returns by the USF game (at the latest), what is your updated forecast?

Mine are:
Best 10-2 (lose to LSU and FSU. Very low probability and everything would have to break our way - truly a dream season.

Worst 4-7 (beat only BC the rest of the way) Also. very low probability, but higher than the best scenario. If this happens it will most likely be our secondary not holding up and the injury bug biting again.

Most likely 6-6 (probably beat USF, Pitt and BC) Could go to 7-5 if we beat UVA, however the game is away and UVA has a pretty good passing game. This one could be a shootout.

In other words, the season can go either way depending on a number of factors. One thing is for sure and that is that the secondary needs to improve or there will be a great deal of heartburn in Orange Nation.

What do you think?

Sticking with my preseason prediction. 9-3 regular season. Shot at a 10 win season after the bowl game. This is assuming Dungey gets back for USF.

 

[TheCusian]

6-6, 7-5 were my picks before the season and that's where they remain.

I'm hopeful that the pass defense gets better (like last year). I think Erv coming back is huge. Strickland is coming on. Loved the Custis jump ball in the end zone. Jordan is playing well. Lester is competent.

Dungey is the wild card. He's only scratching at the surface of his potential. Example: on 1st drive where we settled for a FG, the play before was the TE drop in the back of the end zone. Ball was high and Moore almost came down with it. Ben Lewis comes up to him after the play and Dungey is mad at himself. I thought at first for the poor throw no TD. But rewatched and Lewis was open by 3-4 yards near the pylon. Dungey missed him. He's the kind of player that will see that next time. He's learning quick and making great plays when things break down - but his ability to read the D quickly is getting better by the game minute.

He could easily be the difference in the Louisville game, UVa, and maybe one of FSU/Clemson. Who knows? I won't put a ceiling on him this year. Look how far the guy has come in his first two months on campus?!?

 

[MSOrange]

I'm sticking with the same as I had preseason...6-6 or 7-5. Some of our opponents are worse than I anticipated, but they are the same opponents I thought we had a chance to beat anyway.

I'm the same way for pretty much the same reason. I predicted 6-6. I can definitely see 7-5 with Louisville turned into the win column from my original prediction but that's my only real change so far. I think we will give FSU and Clemson and better game than I originally thought but still not sure we will have quite enough. Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

[Chip]

There's just too big of a fork in the road.

If the road forks one way, I can see 6, maybe 7 wins.

If the road forks the other way, I think we could be stuck at 3, maybe get to 4 wins.

 

[upperdeck]

the updated forecast is we will be no worse than 3-9. so at worst we are flat lined.

 

[Crusty]

6-6, 7-5 were my picks before the season and that's where they remain.

I'm hopeful that the pass defense gets better (like last year). I think Erv coming back is huge. Strickland is coming on. Loved the Custis jump ball in the end zone. Jordan is playing well. Lester is competent.

Dungey is the wild card. He's only scratching at the surface of his potential. Example: on 1st drive where we settled for a FG, the play before was the TE drop in the back of the end zone. Ball was high and Moore almost came down with it. Ben Lewis comes up to him after the play and Dungey is mad at himself. I thought at first for the poor throw no TD. But rewatched and Lewis was open by 3-4 yards near the pylon. Dungey missed him. He's the kind of player that will see that next time. He's learning quick and making great plays when things break down - but his ability to read the D quickly is getting better by the game minute.

He could easily be the difference in the Louisville game, UVa, and maybe one of FSU/Clemson. Who knows? I won't put a ceiling on him this year. Look how far the guy has come in his first two months on campus?!?

Did you notice a wide open receiver just in front of the end zone? I think he threw it to the wrong guy. As you say, learning curve.

 

[Crusty]

There's just too big of a fork in the road.

If the road forks one way, I can see 6, maybe 7 wins.

If the road forks the other way, I think we could be stuck at 3, maybe get to 4 wins.

Speaking of forks in the road - everyone knows the classic Yogism - "when you see the fork in the road - take it."
However, Yogi lived on a circular street with two entrances! He was actually correct!

 

[TheCusian]

Did you notice a wide open receiver just in front of the end zone? I think he threw it to the wrong guy. As you say, learning curve.

Yep - was Lewis.

 

[RF2044]

It all depends on Dungey's health. If he's good to go, then yeah--I could see us competing with the 50/50 peer games remaining on our schedule, like uva, pitt, usf, bc. And don't look now, but louisville is 0-3, so maybe they'll have psychologically packed it in by the time we play them.

If Dungey can't go, well then Zach Mahoney is our starting QB. Not good, long term.

Ultimately, I think we need to win 2 of the next four, or bowl eligiblity is probably moot.

 

[qdawgg]

I would be disappointed if we didn't get to 6-6 and I think it's realistic. 7-5 I would be pretty happy with because I see most games as a toss up other than the obvious LSU and FSU

 

[K Otto XLIV]

I don't think anything has changed for my predictions. I thought we would go 6-6 and expected to win the first 3. Wake & CMU were a little closer than I thought they would be. Dungey is a stud which I wouldn't have expected. Going forward:

LSU - still think this is a loss. I actually think we will do worse than I originally thought. Not because of our play but because they looked great.

USF - still think we should win this. I don't think they are any good. And we have 2 weeks to prep. The only issue is that it is our 1st road game. Although they don't have any home crowd.

UVA - this is a coin toss game but I give SU a slight advantage. UVA has talent but they find ways to lose. Our mindset should be high at 4-1 while they could very well be 1-4 going into the game.

Pitt - not sure what to think about them yet. They were my dark horse for winning the Coastal. They lost their RB and maybe their QB (not sure what his situation is). We will know a lot more in the next few games. Definitely a toss up game but for now I think slightest of advantages to Pitt.

FSU - this should be a loss. We haven't played them all that well the last 2 years. They are worse this year for sure. But going onto the road, I just don't see it. The biggest advantage for us is that we are sandwiched in between GA Tech & Clemson for FSU.

Louisville - I think our chances of winning have definitely increased. Their O is awful which is a surprise given Petrino. It is an expected L but is closer to a toss up than before.

Clemson - they haven't looked great thus far but they are still better than us. I like that we play them right after their FSU game. I wish we had some momentum going in.

NC St - I thought before the season and still think that we are better than them. They will start off 4-0 again because of their criminal OOC schedule. Then they will end up 6-6 because they simply are not good. It is a road game though. And we could be coming in on a losing streak. So the advantage will be in their favor.

BC - they are awful on O. We are home. We really should beat them. Again the concern is that we could be coming in on a losing streak. However so could they. BC might be 3-8 at that point.

I still think LSU, FSU, and Clemson are expected Ls. I still think USF is an expected W. The other 5 games are various forms of toss ups with 2 home and 3 away. We should be able to get 2 Ws from those games. Expecting more at this point is asking too much. If we get less it will be a big disappointment.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Injury bug has to slow down and the secondary has to get light years better or were probably looking at 5-7 6-6.

Right now the secondary is to poor to see us beatin a Lville or even UVA who can sling it. Assuming injuries are kept reasonable I think BC and Pitt could be wins but that BC game has rock fight last second win written all over it.

Wild card game is NC State, not sure what to expect there.

 

[Bayside44]

If we get the same Dungey post cheapshot we will win 8. We can walk into places like UVa and NCSU and win with that kid.

 

[Oswego93]

Assuming we get Dungey back after the bye week, I see only Fla. St., and LSU as almost-certain losses. I do not see any almost-certain wins, but I do see probable wins in USF, BC, and Pitt (we are due with these guys, and it is at home). NC State, I have no read on. Louisville, we would need to win a shootout. UVA, another shooutout game, as I do not see our secondary perfor1ming well against that string bean of a QB at their house. Clemson has the possibility of upset material.

 

[Faegan]

If we get the same Dungey post cheapshot we will win 8. We can walk into places like UVa and NCSU and win with that kid.

I'm drinking the same Kool Aid with Dungey. One of the things that pissed me off the most about that cheap shot is that we didn't get to see what kind of a beat down Dungey could have put on them... and I'm convinced we would have beaten them by 4 touchdowns if it hadn't happened.

 

[Bayside44]

I'm drinking the same Kool Aid with Dungey. One of the things that pissed me off the most about that cheap shot is that we didn't get to see what kind of a beat down Dungey could have put on them... and I'm convinced we would have beaten them by 4 touchdowns if it hadn't happened.

Agreed, it's just too much field for them to defend with Dungey playing.

 

[anomander]

6-6, but think we have a much better shot at 8-4 then I did before the season.

 

[Briancuse]

I don't think anything has really changed. We won three games at home that we were supposed to win, I think pretty much everyone here thought we would be 3-0. I think the only thing that has really changed, is we have a stud qb, that we didn't know about. I think this is a still a 7 win team.

 

[Brian Orange]

There's just too big of a fork in the road.

If the road forks one way, I can see 6, maybe 7 wins.

If the road forks the other way, I think we could be stuck at 3, maybe get to 4 wins.

This.