UVA opens -4 over Syracuse...

[PoppyHart]

So, who's been playing the money line this year?

 

[690West]

Just curious why youre saying that. Not disagreeing or agreeing.

Because I've been tracking Sagarin's number on this game for weeks well before Grant's injury and it had been around 4 points for awhile.

 

[690West]

down to -3.5 everywhere.

 

[Orangemen]

Less than zero

So you're saying it pushed the line from -3 to -4?

 

[HastingsCuse]

What's the money line? I never bet on the games but that line seems high.

 

[anomander]

This basically means Cuse/UVA would be a Pk on a neutral court. I just can't see that. I know i'd be all over that.

 

[MadNY3]

cuse +4 is like stealing money

Before you think that, a reminder that is was Syracuse -2.5 against Maryland.

Vegas is scary good.

 

[JohnCuse44]

Before you think that, a reminder that is was Syracuse -2.5 against Maryland.

Vegas is scary good.

The spread has absolutely nothing to do with the projected outcome of the game. The only purpose of the spread is to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't think UVA will win by 4 that's just the number they think it will take for the American betting public to be split on the game.

 

[AZOrange]

This basically means Cuse/UVA would be a Pk on a neutral court. I just can't see that. I know i'd be all over that.

The resumes just are not even remotely similar.

 

[BuffOrange]

The spread has absolutely nothing to do with the projected outcome of the game. The only purpose of the spread is to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't think UVA will win by 4 that's just the number they think it will take for the American betting public to be split on the game.

Fans always say this like it's a good thing for their team.
Which side do you suppose has the higher ticket count ie who is the more public team?
Guess were the big betting sharp $ would be if the spread were lower? Hint: not us.

 

[690West]

What's the money line? I never bet on the games but that line seems high.

ML is currently Syracuse +145 which gives us a 40% chance to win. Exactly the percentage Pomeroy gives us.

 

[Nicknack]

The spread has absolutely nothing to do with the projected outcome of the game. The only purpose of the spread is to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't think UVA will win by 4 that's just the number they think it will take for the American betting public to be split on the game.

EXACTLY... not too many folks understand that, not that I'm a betting man or anything.

I have felt nervous about EVERY game since we went stale after the first Dook game, but this one, for some reason feel good about. I still think it will be a nail biter but one that again, we will end up on top of when it shows 0 to play.

 

[BuffOrange]

You should be a betting man if the lines are as elementary as you make it seem.
Nobody who has ever given the "not predictive, equal $" speech can ever name anything that does a better job of predicting, which is interesting.

 

[jncuse]

The spread has absolutely nothing to do with the projected outcome of the game. The only purpose of the spread is to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't think UVA will win by 4 that's just the number they think it will take for the American betting public to be split on the game.

At times yes, but many times no effort is made to get to 50/50. In many cases Vegas takes sides in college basketball. They are looking to make more than just the juice. Greedy bastards.

Think of it this way. Do you really think Vegas thinks the betting public in aggregate is as smart as them? Of course it doesn't. It has no problem with taking 70-80%+ positions in non massive events if it thinks it will benefit them. After all, when they want to target such a split, as long as they are right more than 50% it's means more profit above the juice. And they know they can get that.


So in games they are very willing and happy to be at say 75-25, why would they move the line to lose some of their cut?

Does Vegas want you to believe that they are aiming everything towards 50/50. Absolutely, they know they can use it to their advantage at times. Just like they set the odd line to suck in "math" betters or Joe public betters at time to get the position they want.

Now there are games they don't want to take a side on, and they will mange the line accordingly.

 

[690West]

At times yes, but many times no effort is made to get to 50/50. In many cases Vegas takes sides in college basketball. They are looking to make more than just the juice. Greedy bastards.

Think of it this way. Do you really think Vegas thinks the betting public in aggregate is as smart as them? Of course it doesn't. It has no problem with taking 70-80%+ positions in non massive events if it thinks it will benefit them. After all, when they want to target such a split, as long as they are right more than 50% it's means more profit above the juice. And they know they can get that.


So in games they are very willing and happy to be at say 75-25, why would they move the line to lose some of their cut?

Does Vegas want you to believe that they are aiming everything towards 50/50. Absolutely, they know they can use it to their advantage at times. Just like they set the odd line to suck in "math" betters or Joe public betters at time to get the position they want.

Now there are games they don't want to take a side on, and they will mange the line accordingly.

I have a serious message board man crush on jncuse. Just had to disclose that. carry on...and don't tell my wife.

 

[jsshap]

The spread has absolutely nothing to do with the projected outcome of the game. The only purpose of the spread is to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't think UVA will win by 4 that's just the number they think it will take for the American betting public to be split on the game.

That's largely true except for the first sentence. The projected outcome of the game has a lot to do with Vegas deciding the number that will get the most split money.

 

[jsshap]

At times yes, but many times no effort is made to get to 50/50. In many cases Vegas takes sides in college basketball. They are looking to make more than just the juice. Greedy bastards.

Think of it this way. Do you really think Vegas thinks the betting public in aggregate is as smart as them? Of course it doesn't. It has no problem with taking 70-80%+ positions in non massive events if it thinks it will benefit them. After all, when they want to target such a split, as long as they are right more than 50% it's means more profit above the juice. And they know they can get that.


So in games they are very willing and happy to be at say 75-25, why would they move the line to lose some of their cut?

Does Vegas want you to believe that they are aiming everything towards 50/50. Absolutely, they know they can use it to their advantage at times. Just like they set the odd line to suck in "math" betters or Joe public betters at time to get the position they want.

Now there are games they don't want to take a side on, and they will mange the line accordingly.

If Vegas is ok taking 80 percent position on a game, that would mean they'd keep the line static or even move it towards the side where the money is, which I've never seen and cannot imagine happening. It would also mean there would frequently be games where one book (the one looking to take a position) is dramatically different than the others, as they don't all move in unison. And that is not common. You may be correct that a few books on occasion are ok taking a position but no way they commonly take (at least intentionally) 70-80 percent sides.

 

[PoppyHart]

It's amazing how much people buy into this "balancing the books" concept. Why does Vegas spend so much on information, advanced analytics, etc... if they only want to be the monkey in the room?