Vegas now has us as the 5th favorite to win NC

[rrlbees]

UK 2-1
UNC 6-1
OSU 8-1
MSU 10-1
SU/KU/Missouri 12-1
Duke 20-1

 

[44PRIDE]

That's fine. Its about this time of year when I start tuning out all the white noise being spewed on the team.

This stuff just raises my blood pressure and isn't worth the aggravation.

 

[Scotch]

UK 2-1
UNC 6-1
OSU 8-1
MSU 10-1
SU/KU/Missouri 12-1
Duke 20-1

Vegas does not think we got a good draw. Despite their record, OSU is a monster.

 

[CusefanATL]

wow... thats truly a slap in the face to have msu as more of a favorite.

and osu...

on a side note: i am not impressed with sullinger at all. he may have been the worst player on the court save a 2 min stretch in the big 10 final. and even when he was really good during that stretch - he showed horrible attitude slowly jogging up and down the court while screaming eric devendorf obscenities.

 

[bpo57]

Very strange that OSU would be the 3rd favorite. They are probably going to have to get through a red hot FSU and then SU in order to just get to the F4.

 

[Townie72]

Vegas does not think we got a good draw. Despite their record, OSU is a monster.

Once again we have a fundamental misperception of what the Las Vegas odds mean and how they are set.

The Vegas Odds makers have no idea who is going to win and don't care. What they are trying to do is manage the money bet so that it is evenly distributed among all possibilities so they can make their money off "the vig".

What you see here is what Vegas thinks the betting public thinks. It's, "what kind of unattractive odds can we give KY so that we not have an overloading of money bet on them which is a potential disaster for us if they win?"

Just like with the stock market, the opinions of the betting public can be swayed by opinions they hear and from things they see. I had a friend who continually made money betting on pro football by playing the emotions of the crowd. He routinely bet against teams who had had big wins the previous week knowing that the line would be higher than it should be. He would bet against the Cowboys continually as in those days they frequently did not beat the spread.

 

[PoppyHart]

We've made a LOT of money for Vegas over the years.

 

[SoBeCuse]

wow... thats truly a slap in the face to have msu as more of a favorite.

and osu...

on a side note: i am not impressed with sullinger at all. he may have been the worst player on the court save a 2 min stretch in the big 10 final. and even when he was really good during that stretch - he showed horrible attitude slowly jogging up and down the court while screaming eric devendorf obscenities.

I'm more concerned with Buford getting hot then Sully. Buford is a good 6'5 who can get into gaps as well as rise up and shoot over people. Scoop vs Craft's D could be an issue. Big game from Dion potentially here, imo.

 

[CusefanATL]

I'm more concerned with Buford getting hot then Sully. Buford is a good 6'5 who can get into gaps as well as rise up and shoot over people. Scoop vs Craft's D could be an issue. Big game from Dion potentially here, imo.

couldnt agree with all your points more.

 

[jimsonjunction]

I'm more concerned with Buford getting hot then Sully. Buford is a good 6'5 who can get into gaps as well as rise up and shoot over people. Scoop vs Craft's D could be an issue. Big game from Dion potentially here, imo.

I agree as well. Sullinger has a tendency to get frustrated easily. I think Fab's intensity/goofiness could get in his head.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I agree as well. Sullinger has a tendency to get frustrated easily. I think Fab's intensity/goofiness could get in his head.

LOL. I would love to see Fab makes some defensive plays on him. Even if Sully outscores him say 12-6 (a win) it would be hilarious to see Fab do some Dikembe-like finger waving at him.

 

[Upstate]

This also shows what Vegas thinks of each contender's path in their respective bracket

 

[Knicks411]

Once again we have a fundamental misperception of what the Las Vegas odds mean and how they are set.

The Vegas Odds makers have no idea who is going to win and don't care. What they are trying to do is manage the money bet so that it is evenly distributed among all possibilities so they can make their money off "the vig".

That is part of it, but it isn't quite that simple. They definitely do a ton of research when they set their lines and I'm almost positive they have their own rating system that is similiar to the ones Pomeroy and Sagarin use.

 

[CusefanATL]

That is part of it, but it isn't quite that simple. They definitely do a ton of research when they set their lines and I'm almost positive they have their own rating system that is similiar to the ones Pomeroy and Sagarin use.

100% right. otherwise we would never see 90% of the money on 1 side without the line moving. vegas gambles too.

 

[Townie72]

That is part of it, but it isn't quite that simple. They definitely do a ton of research when they set their lines and I'm almost positive they have their own rating system that is similiar to the ones Pomeroy and Sagarin use.

Believe what you want. But why go to all that trouble of figuring out which team is going to win when all you care about is achieving a 50% - 50% balance on either side of each bet? If they do that they cannot lose. (They also care about the size of the amount bet and sometimes they set odds to tease ome money into the game.)

If they are studying something, it would be the beliefs of the betting community. That's what they care about and understanding that allows them to make the most money.

The NCAA basketball tourney is a difficult for Vegas as so many casual bettors enter the game and many are psychologically tied to a team. They then have to consider the psychology of these occasional bettors.

 

[BuffOrange]

Once again we have a fundamental misperception of what the Las Vegas odds mean and how they are set.

The Vegas Odds makers have no idea who is going to win and don't care. What they are trying to do is manage the money bet so that it is evenly distributed among all possibilities so they can make their money off "the vig".

What you see here is what Vegas thinks the betting public thinks. It's, "what kind of unattractive odds can we give KY so that we not have an overloading of money bet on them which is a potential disaster for us if they win?"

Just like with the stock market, the opinions of the betting public can be swayed by opinions they hear and from things they see. I had a friend who continually made money betting on pro football by playing the emotions of the crowd. He routinely bet against teams who had had big wins the previous week knowing that the line would be higher than it should be. He would bet against the Cowboys continually as in those days they frequently did not beat the spread.

You're right about one thing - there is a fundamental misperception of what odds are meant and how they are set.

Scott Van Pelt on his radio show does exactly what your friend does during the football season - "fade the public". This past year his record was abysmal. Other years I'm sure he does well, and in others he probably does ok or mediocre. Either way a single football season doesn't say much about one's handicapping prowess. I would wager a lot that your friends' sample size is insignificant.

 

[Garbs]

do not understand the love fest with OSU

 

[Knicks411]

Believe what you want. But why go to all that trouble of figuring out which team is going to win when all you care about is achieving a 50% - 50% balance on either side of each bet? If they do that they cannot lose. (They also care about the size of the amount bet and sometimes they set odds to tease ome money into the game.)

Because that isn't all they care about; they do sometimes take sides on games, as Cusefan Atl points out. People are greedy.

 

[orangeinjersey]

Are those current? This is what I am seeing

Kentucky​

8/5​

North Carolina​

5/1​

Syracuse​

7/1​

Ohio State​

7/1​

Michigan State​

8/1​

Kansas​

10/1​

Missouri​

10/1​

Duke​

12/1​