Weekend of March 1 to March 3 - Bubble Watch

[jncuse]

NOTE - Post #1 has results by time played. Post #2 has results based on bracket matrix "standing"

I know we have another thread with similar discussion by PokerCuse and please continue to follow that one, as it has other meaningful discussion.

Purpose of this thread is to highlight the schedule for teams that are right around the line per the bracket matrix based on the 66 newest brackets as of yesterday only (not the 104 that they still show). It helps me sort things out as the day progresses which is also part of the reason I do this.

A few teams outside of the borders could still be meaningful but to restrict things I cutoff as per below

The matrix is only a guide, the best we have - not an aboslute.

Saturday Games (Results updated at end of each line as games are completed)
12:00 (Q1) 4th Team Out Villanova at Providence (final = Q1 WIN)
12:00 (Q2) Villanova at 2nd Last In Providence (final = Q2 LOSS)
12:00 (Q3) Tulane at 7th Last In Florida Atlantic (final = Q3 Win)
5:30 (Q1) Last Team in Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (final = Q1 Loss)
6:00 (Q1) Sixth Last in Virginia at Duke (final = Q1 Loss)
6:00 (Q2) Sixth Team Out Pitt at BC (final = Q2 Win)
6:00 (Q2) Sixth Team Out Texas A&M at Georgia (final = Q2 Win)
6:00 (Q3) Cornell at Bubble Buster Princeton (win)
8:00 - (Q1) 4th Last Team In New Mexico at Boise St (final = Q1 Loss)
8:00 - (Q1) 9th Last Team in Michigan St at Purdue (final = Q1 Loss)
8:30 - (Q3) Sixth Team Out Ole Miss at Missouri (final = Q3 win)
9:00 (Q3) California at 3rd Team Out Utah (final = Q3 win)
10:00 - (Q1) 6th Last Team in Gonzaga at St Mary's (final = Q1 Win)
10:00 (Q4) Stone Cold Steve Austin at Bubble Buster Grand Canyon (win)

Sunday Games
12:00 (Q1) 3rd Last Team in Seton Hall at UConn
2:00 - (Q3) Murray St at Bubble Buster Indiana St
2:00 - (Q2) Bradley at 5th Last Out Drake
6:30 - (Q3) Rutgers at 8th Last In Nebraska
9:00 - (Q3) Stanford at First Team Out Colorado

No Games this Weekend - St. John's

 

[jncuse]

The matrix is only a guide, the best we have - not an aboslute.

Last Teams In with Avg Seed over 9.00
9th Last Team In - Michigan St 66 (100%), Seed 9.2 (Q1 Loss)
8th Last Team In - Nebraska 66 (100%), Seed 9.3
7th - Florida Atlantic 65 (98%), Seed 9.7 (Q3 Win)
6th - Virginia 66 (100%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Loss)
5th - Gonzaga 65 (98%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Win)
4th - New Mexico 65 (98%), Seed 10.5 (Q1 Loss)
3rd - Seton Hall 61 (92%), Seed 10.8
2nd Last Team in - Providence 54 (82%), Seed 10.8 (Q2 Loss)
Last Team in- Wake Forest 52 (79%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)

First Teams Out (with 1 or more mentions in the matrix)
Ist Team Out - Colorado 21 (32%)
2nd - St. John's 18 (27%)
3rd - Utah 14 (21%) (Q3 Win)
4th - Villanova 12 (18%) (Q1 Win)
5th - Drake 2 (3%)
6th - Ole Miss 1 (2%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Texas A&M 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)
6th - Pitt - 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)


Others - Bubble Busters to Watch
Indiana St - 11.14
Princeton - 11.84 (Win)
Grand Canyon - 11.88 (Win)
This week we cheer for them to lose to take away any potential at large status. Conference tournament we cheer for them to win.

 

[jncuse]

Let's hope this continues into next week - obviously if Syracuse lose tonight this means nothing (at least from a Syracuse context)

 

[jncuse]

A recent summary of surprise teams missing the tournament. Been some large surprise outs in recent years.

2016 probably remains the most interesting bubble I ever saw, because it had such a huge mix of majors, mid-majors... then Monmouth. It was so wide open.

We have been treated pretty well recently by the committee. We are the last team out in 2017 per the matrix and the committee as well. All the choices were reasonable whether we were in or out. We haven't really been screwed since 2007.

Consensus "In's" That missed the tournament
2023 Rutgers 95%
2022 Texas A&M 95%
2021 Louisville 92%
2019 TCU 93%
2018 USC 92%
2018 St Mary's 47%
2017 - Per Consensus
2016 - St Bonaventure 86%
2016 - St Mary's 65%
2016 - San Diego St 58%

Consensus "Out's" that made the tournament
2023 Nevada 31%
2022 Notre Dame 35%
2021 Wichita St 45%
2019 Belmont 27%
2018 Arizona St 33%
2018 Syracuse 12%
2017 Per Consensus
2016 Syracuse 38%
2016 Vanderbilt 30%
2016 Tulsa 1%

 

[Cuse181]

Gt should be on their way to becoming a Q2 loss, huge

 

[jncuse]

Gt should be on their way to becoming a Q2 loss, huge

It's a good result for us. But there is a partial negative to it - it makes our Q1+Q2 record (%), a stat this is also often referenced, look worse. But you take what you can get and this result is certainly a net positive.

 

[Cuse181]

It's a good result for us. But there is a partial negative to it - it makes our Q1+Q2 record (%), a stat this is also often referenced, look worse. But you take what you can get and this result is certainly a net positive.

That’s fair, I just think it’s one less thing the committee can hit cuse on. 1 Quad 3 loss is well in line with most other bubble teams.

 

[jncuse]

That’s fair, I just think it’s one less thing the committee can hit cuse on. 1 Quad 3 loss is well in line with most other bubble teams.

You are correct.

At the end of the day the most important thing, unfortunately, was that it was a loss. But we can't change that part.

And if we are to believe the committee, they "scrub" the edges of quad lines as part of their deeper analysis of those teams right on the line as part of their bubble selection, so it might not matter if they are #131 or #139, I'd rather be on the good side though where it is Q2.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Wisconsin is a bubble team if we are being honest, cant wait to bet against em in tourney

 

[jncuse]

Wisconsin is a bubble team if we are being honest, cant wait to bet against em in tourney

Wisconsin is a consensus #5 seed right now on the Bracket Matrix, which might have them a line too high because of their NET. But they have quality wins - lots of them.

6 Q1 Wins
12-10 in Q1+Q2 games
No bad losses (per metrics)

Even if they close at 0-4 they are still very likely safe.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Wisconsin is a consensus #5 seed right now on the Bracket Matrix, which might have them a line too high because of their NET. But they have quality wins - lots of them.

6 Q1 Wins
12-10 in Q1+Q2 games
No bad losses (per metrics)

Even if they close at 0-4 they are still very likely safe.

For sure, I have watched em a lot lately and they just dont look good at all. Living off their early season

 

[Cuse181]

Wisconsin is a consensus #5 seed right now on the Bracket Matrix, which might have them a line too high because of their NET. But they have quality wins - lots of them.

6 Q1 Wins
12-10 in Q1+Q2 games
No bad losses (per metrics)

Even if they close at 0-4 they are still very likely safe.

Playing like garbage if late though. Whoever they play, it’s an easy upset pick

 

[jncuse]

For sure, I have watched em a lot lately and they just dont look good at all. Living off their early season

Certainly doing their best to blow a good start to the season and a protected seed -- about to go 2-7 in their last 9 games.

Thankfully for them they had a nice bulge that could absorb that, and even more losses.

One of the crazier slides right now is Texas A&M, who has now loss 5 games in a row (including 2 bad losses). They went from probably a 6 seed, to now being out of the tournament (with the chance of getting back in).

 

[jncuse]

Playing like garbage if late though. Whoever they play, it’s an easy upset pick

They look like they will be somewhere between a 6-9 seed, due to their recent slide (and potential to continue it). So it might not even be that big of an upset in the end.

 

[jncuse]

Sort of slow afternoon - only 2 games of note that started before 5:30, and one of them was a highly predictable Q3 win.

Would have been preferable for the Providence-Villanova to end up with a Q2 win being handed out instead of a Q1 Win. That result might flip the 2 teams around in many people's eyes.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Yikes Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, (love his game) and Ighodaro both starters out of the game against Creighton because of illness. Kolek was so sick, he didn’t even make the trip. Then a bench player, Tre Norman, of Marquette checked himself out during the ongoing game and got sick behind Marquette’s bench. Stuff spreading around

 

[bballbeadle]

Yikes Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, (love his game) and Ighodaro both starters out of the game against Creighton because of illness. Kolek was so sick, he didn’t make the trip. Then a bench player, Tre Norman, of Marquette checked himself out during the ongoing game and got sick behind Marquette’s bench. Stuff spreading around

Norovirus.

 

[jncuse]

Wake loses to Virginia Tech.
As the last team in, with its weakest component being a Q1 record of 1-6, this was a blown opportunity to make the Q1 look more reasonable.

Need to beat Clemson at home this week which will be Q1.

 

[jncuse]

So far today, the 8 teams below the line have done well - probably not the greatest thing for us (if we win the next two).
3-0, Q1 win, Q2 Win, Q2 Win.
(Villanova, Pitt, Texas A&M)

That being said the 6 teams above the line are also 0-3. So that is good.

Texas A&M has a crazy resume
5-6 in Q1 (Very Good)
4-3 in Q2 (Good Enough)
2-4 in Q3 (Extremely Bad) (one could turn to Q2)

 

[jncuse]

8:00 games now complete. Biggest positive is of course us winning.
But after that New Mexico St not being able to get a Q1 win at Boise St is a positive,
isappointing.

Teams above the line on the bubble are now 1-5 today, which is very much a positive. Although most of those losses were Q1.

Teams below the line on the bubble are now 4-0 today, which hurts us a tad.

The bubble "consensus" that we saw entering this weekend, will be much more divided after the above.

 

[UpstateSM]

This looks like the Zags that we saw. They could go on a run.

 

[UpstateSM]

Farnham is so good

 

[jncuse]

This looks like the Zags that we saw. They could go on a run.

If there was any doubt about them, tonight's win cliches a bid for them.

I suspect they will get thrown on the 8/9 line, as they like to do with mid-majors. (also easiest for bracketing)

 

[jncuse]

The matrix is only a guide, the best we have - not an aboslute.

Last Teams In with Avg Seed over 9.00
9th Last Team In - Michigan St 66 (100%), Seed 9.2 (Q1 Loss)
8th Last Team In - Nebraska 66 (100%), Seed 9.3
7th - Florida Atlantic 65 (98%), Seed 9.7 (Q3 Win)
6th - Virginia 66 (100%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Loss)
5th - Gonzaga 65 (98%), Seed 10.2 (Q1 Win)
4th - New Mexico 65 (98%), Seed 10.5 (Q1 Loss)
3rd - Seton Hall 61 (92%), Seed 10.8
2nd Last Team in - Providence 54 (82%), Seed 10.8 (Q2 Loss)
Last Team in- Wake Forest 52 (79%), Seed 10.8 (Q1 Loss)

First Teams Out (with 1 or more mentions in the matrix)
Ist Team Out - Colorado 21 (32%)
2nd - St. John's 18 (27%)
3rd - Utah 14 (21%) (Q3 Win)
4th - Villanova 12 (18%) (Q1 Win)
5th - Drake 2 (3%)
6th - Ole Miss 1 (2%) (Q3 Win)
6th - Texas A&M 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)
6th - Pitt - 1 (2%) (Q2 Win)


Others - Bubble Busters to Watch
Indiana St - 11.14
Princeton - 11.84 (Win)
Grand Canyon - 11.88 (Win)
This week we cheer for them to lose to take away any potential at large status. Conference tournament we cheer for them to win.

So yesterday teams above the line went 2-5.
a) New Mexico, Providence and Wake Forest all blew Q1 and Q2 games they had decent chances to win, especially Providence.
b) Michigan St and Virginia losses on the road won't hurt them.
c) Only team that made a big positive move was Gonzaga - can take them off the bubble

Teams below the line went 5-0 as documented above, with 1 Q1 and 2 Q1 Wins.
a) Villanova may move in to

Either way the next bracket matrix will be much more spread out in terms of % in and % out.
Perhaps we get a mention or two, but we are not helped by the fact that other teams on the "out" made positive moves yesterday.

 

[jncuse]

Other than following the results of these games, I think I'm going to lay low on tourney talk for the next few days. If we don't beat Clemson, there will be no discussion to be had from our vantage point anyway.

And if they do win, I will have conserved energy because that is when **** will get real.

Sunday Games
12:00 (Q1) 3rd Last Team in Seton Hall at UConn
2:00 - (Q3) Murray St at Bubble Buster Indiana St
2:00 - (Q2) Bradley at 5th Last Out Drake
6:30 - (Q3) Rutgers at 8th Last In Nebraska
9:00 - (Q3) Stanford at First Team Out Colorado