Vermont Game Preview (02/04/23, 1pm)

[AD31]

Ha ha. I cannot imagine there are such stats and would be worthless if there were. Stats are just stats unless you understand the context and specific game situations. Goalie stats are a function of goalie talent, strength of defense, shot quality, strength of opposition etc.
I think the only conclusive thing you can say is that Will Mark was consistent and had a good save percentage over several seasons which is good. I am very hopeful that he will be a strong goalie for Cuse. The fact that he occasionally played Rutgers or St Joes doesn't impress me that much. I want to see how he handles facing Brennan O'Neill, Pat Kavanaugh, Shellenberger etc. when the games are high pressure. The expectations for a Cuse goalie are very different than LIU.

I agree with u that facing O'Neal and Shellenberger guys like that is a tougher challenge all I meant was that it's not like he hasn't face talented shooters. He hasn't on a consistent basis which he will now but he did well agajnst a Rutgers or St Joes while having a weaker defense in front of him. Now he is fired up for the challenge so no reason why he can't raise his level of play if he has the ability. Were obviously gonna find out soon but I believe he will. I also believe no matter what he will be improved on what SU had in goal last yr. Knowing the competitive guy he is and the talent he has I believe he will raise to the level of competition.

 

[Cuse All-In]

Sorry if my statement was confusing, I have heard SU is definitely all in on Mark and I was noting that it wasn't likely McCool was going to play. SU does have a bad habit of blowing redshirts so if McCool does win the backup job he may see time which I think would be a mistake.

I agree with you - best scenario is for McCool to redshirt. I guess the other good scenario would be that Mark struggles and McCool proves to be a star

 

[AD31]

I agree with you - best scenario is for McCool to redshirt. I guess the other good scenario would be that Mark struggles and McCool proves to be a star

No that's not a good scenario because if he struggles then SU will have a bad start to the season. Best is he plays well and Cuse has a good yr. Then when he graduates McCool takes over and is excellent for 3 yrs all while Cuse wins National Championships. Lol

 

[wgdsr]

Idk but u would think it's harder I mean u gotta make at least 20 saves to reach 50% if ur facing 40 shots on goal. If u face 24 shots on goal u only need 12 saves. Will Mark saved around 20 shots a game. He made 30 saves agajnst a talented Bryant team. That's a lot of saves. I would think the more shots the harder it is to keep ur save percentage up. I think it's more impressive saving 20 goals a game then only 10 or 12 saves on 24 shots right? He saved 55% so that's like making what 23 saves on 40 shots on goal? That's pretty good. Also if he saved say 50% against Rutgers last yr well he did that with a less talented LIU defense in front of him. With a more talented ACC defense in front u would think that 50% would be a little higher. Tougher to make a save with a guy wide open in front of the cage then if the guy is covered and has to make a more difficult shot. Especially when facing more talented players like Rutgers then facing Hobart. I'm curious if there is any stats on all of this. I'm just thinking in my mind it's gotta be tougher to keep ur percentage up if ur facing on avg a higher amount of shots right?

i just don't make any of those assumptions. like all-in says, it's a function of a number of things, and one thing you can say is mark has put together 2 good years so far where he was at. the better comp/inferior d cuts both ways, it's a wash.

one influence i can imagine is if you watched a goalie get a lot of work in a game, and make a lot of saves even if a bunch of goals went in... you're not likely to walk away saying a loss was on the goalie, even at 45%, 50, 55 whatever. and he probably had some terrific saves in there because of the # of shots. but if he has the mental makeup that a goalie needs, his performance won't drop just based on volume.

 

[Ernj]

are there any stats somewhere that suggest the more shots faced, the lower the percentage expected?
laxreference.com?

I cannot say specifically about stats will add one anecdote.

My daughter is a hockey goalie. Different sport but similar as it relates to this question.

When she faces a team that gets a lot of shots off, its very clear that the team is much better in most aspects to a team that gets fewer shots on her. But its not just the number of shots, its quality of shots, speed of shots, placement of shots, shots off rebounds, shots blocked by her defense, shots altered by her defense, etc. My daughter has a much higher save percentage against a lower quality team because the shots are easier to save.

One example. My daughter is short. When she goes into butterfly, she gives up a good chunk of the net over her shoulders. Better shooters can lift the puck and score more easily. She is much better stopping shots from average shooters that struggle with lifting the puck because she moves side to side and is good with her stick and glove.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

 

[DMVCuseLax]

 

[AD31]

That's

I cannot say specifically about stats will add one anecdote.

My daughter is a hockey goalie. Different sport but similar as it relates to this question.

When she faces a team that gets a lot of shots off, its very clear that the team is much better in most aspects to a team that gets fewer shots on her. But its not just the number of shots, its quality of shots, speed of shots, placement of shots, shots off rebounds, shots blocked by her defense, shots altered by her defense, etc. My daughter has a much higher save percentage against a lower quality team because the shots are easier to save.

One example. My daughter is short. When she goes into butterfly, she gives up a good chunk of the net over her shoulders. Better shooters can lift the puck and score more easily. She is much better stopping shots from average shooters that struggle with lifting the puck because she moves side to side and is good with her stick and glove.

That's true it makes sense. Marks first yr he had a lot of D 2 kids left over from the move playing in front of him and when I tell u the saves this kid made were ridiculous. We would go nuts because kids would get open shots right in front of the cage as they were undersized on D and got pushed around. Bryant had over 70 shots in game in which that's when he made 30 saves. It was like 50 shots on goal and 73 total shots. He's been in there getting peppered and never backed down he was the reason they competed pretty well their 1st yr in D 1. Last yr they had talented kids on the team on both sides of the ball so they were much better. He had Chris Cambell who transferred to Umass and Jake Murphy at SSDM but before that he really faced crazy amount of shots and good shots like I said not well covered trying to get a shot off. That's something I really like about him as he doesn't get rattled he hangs in there and competes no matter if he's getting peppered all game. At times he makes saves that ur like wow how did he save that. I think he's gonna do well and suprise a lot of ppl.

 

[nyclax]

Luckily for Will Mark, the Orange's first three games are not all that different in quality from what he was against at LIU so he's got some time to settle in before the Maryland and Duke offenses come to town

 

[AD31]

Luckily for Will Mark, the Orange's first three games are not all that different in quality from what he was against at LIU so he's got some time to settle in before the Maryland and Duke offenses come to town

Yeah I said that as soon as I saw the schedule. He can get a few games under his belt before facing those two. It's good for the freshman too.

 

[Powellfan]

Does anyone have any insight into what the midfield lines will look like? There are A LOT of players in the running for minutes on that side of the ball. Not a lot of proven experience coming back either so it's hard to figure out who will be given the most playing time. The Nunes Magician Preview listed nine players who I wouldn't be surprised to see start.

In the fall scrimmages it sounded like three freshmen played together on the first line - Michael Leo, Luke Rhoa and Finn Thomson. Max Rosa, Brett Tenaglia and Carter Kempney apparently made up the second group and Peter Fiorini, Barrett White and Caelin Lewis the third. From that second and third group, I'd be surprised if any of those players outside of Kempney and maybe Fiorini saw meaningful minutes this year. Birtwistle was apparently hurt for the fall and I have to imagine he will see significant time out there this year. Cole Kirst didn't see that much time for some reason, Griffin Cook was out injured and I didn't see mention of Tyler Cordes who saw a lot of time in '22.

I can't quite remember a time when Syracuse had this many unknows at a certain position. I keep forgetting about players (I had completely forgotten about Tenaglia, no offense). There is a lot of potential here but outside of Birtwistle I am not sure I could be certain of anyone being a surefire starter.

My best guess at some sort of order of most likely to see playing time looks like this:
Birtwistle
Thomson
Leo
Kirst
Kempney
Rhoa
Cordes
Cook
Fiorini

That is nine guys, including four freshmen - and before anyone says it, no I don't see them running a third midfield line - so someone is getting left in the cold. And that doesn't even take into considering four or five other guys further down the bench. I haven't heard much from spring practice other than Birtwistle looks good. So, does anyone have any insight?

 

[Cuse4455]

Wow these guys really think SU is gonna be bad again. The best is the last guy saying its pretty much the same team as last yr. I mean I guess he doesn't research before making his picks. Anish thinks the offense will struggle to score with the freshmen like their not the most talented freshmen in the country. Yeah Simmons, Spallina and Hiltz will struggle to score. Birtwhistle and Cole Kirst have issues scoring too. Hope SU dominates which I think they will.

Spallina and Hiltz will have no trouble scoring,... against ND and Maryland yes they will struggle. But against others... Come on lol. I never read preseason articles, they are usually wrong.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[JeremyCuse]

Does anyone have any insight into what the midfield lines will look like? There are A LOT of players in the running for minutes on that side of the ball. Not a lot of proven experience coming back either so it's hard to figure out who will be given the most playing time. The Nunes Magician Preview listed nine players who I wouldn't be surprised to see start.

In the fall scrimmages it sounded like three freshmen played together on the first line - Michael Leo, Luke Rhoa and Finn Thomson. Max Rosa, Brett Tenaglia and Carter Kempney apparently made up the second group and Peter Fiorini, Barrett White and Caelin Lewis the third. From that second and third group, I'd be surprised if any of those players outside of Kempney and maybe Fiorini saw meaningful minutes this year. Birtwistle was apparently hurt for the fall and I have to imagine he will see significant time out there this year. Cole Kirst didn't see that much time for some reason, Griffin Cook was out injured and I didn't see mention of Tyler Cordes who saw a lot of time in '22.

I can't quite remember a time when Syracuse had this many unknows at a certain position. I keep forgetting about players (I had completely forgotten about Tenaglia, no offense). There is a lot of potential here but outside of Birtwistle I am not sure I could be certain of anyone being a surefire starter.

My best guess at some sort of order of most likely to see playing time looks like this:
Birtwistle
Thomson
Leo
Kirst
Kempney
Rhoa
Cordes
Cook
Fiorini

That is nine guys, including four freshmen - and before anyone says it, no I don't see them running a third midfield line - so someone is getting left in the cold. And that doesn't even take into considering four or five other guys further down the bench. I haven't heard much from spring practice other than Birtwistle looks good. So, does anyone have any insight?

Determining a 2 line midfield will be difficult to do because its unclear if SU is going to tinker with the attack line at all with Simmons able to play both attack and midfield. Thomson to me still projects ultimately at attack, I wonder if he sees some run there ala Mariano who shuffled back and forth his two years here. I also think Birtwistle is much more of a weapon at attack. I am a little surprised that Simmons isn't playing midfield if I am being honest. Assuming the starting attack line remains Spallina, Simmons, Hiltz, I see the midfield breaking down as follows:

1st Line - Birtwistle, Thomson and ???? - that third spot has a lot potential answers. Kirst on papers seems like the guy but I think he would be more useful on the 2nd line as a veteran presence but I could be wrong. l don't see Cook or Fiorini being realistic options and I think Rhoa probably starts on the 2nd line. That leaves Leo, Kempney, Cordes and Kirst as the realistic options. Again on paper Kirst would seem to be the guy, will give a verteran presence and likely draw the pole (at least to start). However, personally I'd like to see someone with a big shot be the answer for the third psot. That would leave it to Kempney or Cordes if I had the ultimate say so.

In reality I think the lines probably look like this
1st - Birtwistle - Thomson - Kirst
2nd Line - Leo - Cordes - Kempney or Rhoa

 

[CrazyPeople]

Regardless if we struggle at the face-off X, I think we win this game 16-12 ish. Vermont just isn't the team they were last year or the year before. Even if they were those caliber teams, we still took it to them in '21 with the amount of defensive struggles we had.

I'm predicting 8+ wins this year. We are going to benefit from UNC being down and getting to play them twice in addition to the cupcake wins vs Holy Cross, Bonaventure, Hofstra and Albany (yes, even after that embarrassment last year).

 

[DoctahLexus]

Determining a 2 line midfield will be difficult to do because its unclear if SU is going to tinker with the attack line at all with Simmons able to play both attack and midfield. Thomson to me still projects ultimately at attack, I wonder if he sees some run there ala Mariano who shuffled back and forth his two years here. I also think Birtwistle is much more of a weapon at attack. I am a little surprised that Simmons isn't playing midfield if I am being honest. Assuming the starting attack line remains Spallina, Simmons, Hiltz, I see the midfield breaking down as follows:

1st Line - Birtwistle, Thomson and ???? - that third spot has a lot potential answers. Kirst on papers seems like the guy but I think he would be more useful on the 2nd line as a veteran presence but I could be wrong. l don't see Cook or Fiorini being realistic options and I think Rhoa probably starts on the 2nd line. That leaves Leo, Kempney, Cordes and Kirst as the realistic options. Again on paper Kirst would seem to be the guy, will give a verteran presence and likely draw the pole (at least to start). However, personally I'd like to see someone with a big shot be the answer for the third psot. That would leave it to Kempney or Cordes if I had the ultimate say so.

In reality I think the lines probably look like this
1st - Birtwistle - Thomson - Kirst
2nd Line - Leo - Cordes - Kempney or Rhoa

Kirst is a smart and important addition this offseason. He has weaknesses. He has struggled to maintain a good shooting percentage while at Lehigh and there may be some frustration from us there, but with all our dodging losses this offseason we need a guy who can get a defensive rotation going. I have seen some promising Lehigh highlights in recent weeks. He is big even for a Kirst brother, but also has an underrated first step and burst for a guy his size. Has had success off the dodge against long poles and short sticks. If we were able to set picks to get him matched up against a smaller ssdm then he will almost definitely be able to force a slide and give the talented feeders and shooters we have something to work with. His shooting ability may be an issue, but he is not so bad there that a defense would just let him barrel through to the goal. Would be very surprised if he does not start.

 

[CHSLAX]

Regardless if we struggle at the face-off X, I think we win this game 16-12 ish. Vermont just isn't the team they were last year or the year before. Even if they were those caliber teams, we still took it to them in '21 with the amount of defensive struggles we had.

I'm predicting 8+ wins this year. We are going to benefit from UNC being down and getting to play them twice in addition to the cupcake wins vs Holy Cross, Bonaventure, Hofstra and Albany (yes, even after that embarrassment last year).

I am curious about folks thoughts about the Tarheels. Last year they had the #1 freshman class, while this year we do (I will grant our class is potentially generational). Not sure but I have to think the talent they had going in to complement the class was comparable if not better than ours. What makes them down and us up? Kirst and Mark certainly help via the portal - did they gain anything in the portal? Their incoming class has to be decent. A split is a must.

 

[nyclax]

What makes them down and us up?

cuse can't be worse than they were last year. they may not be good yet, but they'll be better

it's hard to make the same argument on paper for unc. after losing chris gray i do think it's possible they have a similar season to last year if not an even worse one

 

[JeremyCuse]

I am curious about folks thoughts about the Tarheels. Last year they had the #1 freshman class, while this year we do (I will grant our class is potentially generational). Not sure but I have to think the talent they had going in to complement the class was comparable if not better than ours. What makes them down and us up? Kirst and Mark certainly help via the portal - did they gain anything in the portal? Their incoming class has to be decent. A split is a must.

UNC should be decent. They brought in some pretty good talent via the portal in Goldsmith Wellford and McGovern and a few others. They have size and speed an Defense but were uneven like us and Kreig struggled at times in his Soph year. Major issue for UNC is no Dom Petro and they have to totally revamp their offense as it was pretty much run everything through Chris Gray and let him do his thing. With Egan, Goldsmith and the other transfers their offense will still be good but its unclear who the lead dodger will be and if they have a go to guy in the clutch. I suspect this will be like a lot of Breschi teams, good enough to beat anyone but will also lose some games they have no business losing. I suspect they will be around .500.

 

[CuseAlum87]

cuse can't be worse than they were last year. they may not be good yet, but they'll be better

it's hard to make the same argument on paper for unc. after losing chris gray i do think it's possible they have a similar season to last year if not an even worse one

it's not just that UNC lost Gray, but they also lost Kelly and Solomon. Those two had a down year last year but they were a proven commodity. UNC didn't replace the amount of offense they lost.

 

[CHSLAX]

cuse can't be worse than they were last year. they may not be good yet, but they'll be better

it's hard to make the same argument on paper for unc. after losing chris gray i do think it's possible they have a similar season to last year if not an even worse one

UNC should be decent. They brought in some pretty good talent via the portal in Goldsmith Wellford and McGovern and a few others. They have size and speed an Defense but were uneven like us and Kreig struggled at times in his Soph year. Major issue for UNC is no Dom Petro and they have to totally revamp their offense as it was pretty much run everything through Chris Gray and let him do his thing. With Egan, Goldsmith and the other transfers their offense will still be good but its unclear who the lead dodger will be and if they have a go to guy in the clutch. I suspect this will be like a lot of Breschi teams, good enough to beat anyone but will also lose some games they have no business losing. I suspect they will be around .500.

Good points. Forgot about Goldsmith. He's is very good.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Good points. Forgot about Goldsmith. He's is very good.

Ya they did a pretty good under the radar job in the portal this offseason. Goldsmith, McGovern, Wellford on O and Geppert Roselle and someone else on D that I can't recall. All pretty good players. Unclear if they will all mesh in with UNC's returning guys and frosh. UNC doesn't have a ton of depth so a few injuries like we had last year could really make an impact.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Good points. Forgot about Goldsmith. He's is very good.

There is a chance that he will be hurt at the start of the season as well. Don't believe he has been playing in their preseason scrimmages, but could be wrong. Another slightly under the radar loss they had was middie Cole Herbert. Didn't blow up the stat sheet but had a killer first step off the dodge that caused problems against us. Type of guy with a high ceiling who you could see developing into a star middie down the road. Now off to Towson I believe. Also lost the better half of their 2 man faceoff crew, Zac Tucci.

Think they could be a solid team, but seeing how little they did last year with an all time talented player in Chris Gray does not have me hopeful for their future without him.

 

[wgdsr]

Ya they did a pretty good under the radar job in the portal this offseason. Goldsmith, McGovern, Wellford on O and Geppert Roselle and someone else on D that I can't recall. All pretty good players. Unclear if they will all mesh in with UNC's returning guys and frosh. UNC doesn't have a ton of depth so a few injuries like we had last year could really make an impact.

i get what you're saying on experienced depth, but they had 60 guys dressed for a scrimmage. if you can't find some players out of 60 that were recruited to go to unc, there's something really wrong. kelly and solomon underproduced for 2 guys that got a lot of field time at attack over the years. a bump there should make up for some of no gray.

that said, 'cuse, unc and hopkins are 3 teams that it's tough to project at all how things may pan out in 2023.

 

[JeremyCuse]

i get what you're saying on experienced depth, but they had 60 guys dressed for a scrimmage. if you can't find some players out of 60 that were recruited to go to unc, there's something really wrong. kelly and solomon underproduced for 2 guys that got a lot of field time at attack over the years. a bump there should make up for some of no gray.

that said, 'cuse, unc and hopkins are 3 teams that it's tough to project at all how things may pan out in 2023.

SU had nearly as many last year and they/we struggled to produce quality depth when it was needed. I am a little higher then most on UNC but few teams actually have the depth to cover multiple injuries despite the large rosters. I think between Tillman Egan, Goldsmith and others they will have enough O firepower if they can mesh well and get enough from the midfield.