villanova's terrible shooting day compared to SU this year

[Dave85]

I'd like to hear a candid answer from Boeheim about this.

We get pretty much every recruit we want, we have a renowned Hall of Fame head coach, and our offense has gone from excellent to pedestrian to poor in half a decade (with "poor" being the game-to-game norm in 80% of the last three seasons). What gives?

I heard JB say in an interview once, "Good teams win." But I would like to answer your question "what gives?" At the highest level, with teams of equal caliber, our chances of winning are 50/50. If you've ever played craps a lot you would know just because you have money on 6 and 8 there are nights when you make all you money with 4 and 10. My point is there's nothing wrong with our program, our players, or our coaching. As long as we are in a position to win is all that matters. If we keep throwing dice at some point we going to make our point. Kind of like my posts. Every now and then I say something profound. But most of the time I crap out.

 

[Millhouse]

don't have time to upload anything but imagine a slowly upward sloping line that curves down on the left side and curves up on the right side.

the difference between kinda bad shooting teams and kinda good shooting teams isn't that big

but the difference between really bad and really good is very big

this isn't the actual data, it's not this pronounced, just a quick way to describe what's happening. we don't want to be on the left side of that and we have been too often.

 

[jordoo]

don't have time to upload anything but imagine a slowly upward sloping line that curves down on the left side and curves up on the right side.

the difference between kinda bad shooting teams and kinda good shooting teams isn't that big

but the difference between really bad and really good is very big

this isn't the actual data, it's not this pronounced, just a quick way to describe what's happening. we don't want to be on the left side of that and we have been too often.

3 clicks either side of the mean and we would be very good with out defense.

 

[Dave85]

don't have time to upload anything but imagine a slowly upward sloping line that curves down on the left side and curves up on the right side.

the difference between kinda bad shooting teams and kinda good shooting teams isn't that big

but the difference between really bad and really good is very big

this isn't the actual data, it's not this pronounced, just a quick way to describe what's happening. we don't want to be on the left side of that and we have been too often.

Cool graph. I think though generally our offense could be little better. Our defenses have generally been very good. We just need one player who is a consistent outside threat under pressure. My hope is Malachi becomes that player. With a credible outside threat it will open up all kinds of offensive possibilities. Also, I would like to see the Orange return to scoring off fast breaks generated by steals. I would like to see our team return to pushing it up the floor as fast as possible on every play just to get good at fast breaks.

 

[Millhouse]

Cool graph. I think though generally our offense could be little better. Our defenses have generally been very good. We just need one player who is a consistent outside threat under pressure. My hope is Malachi becomes that player. With a credible outside threat it will open up all kinds of offensive possibilities. Also, I would like to see the Orange return to scoring off fast breaks generated by steals. I would like to see our team return to pushing it up the floor as fast as possible on every play just to get good at fast breaks.

that's not the real data, that's just how the shape of it looks

 

[Dave85]

that's not the real data, that's just how the shape of it looks

Yeah I get that. But it supports my idea with two evenly matched teams we will have 50/50 chance. To win a national championship starting with the sweet 16 it's like flipping a coin and getting heads four times in row. It's not impossible but you have to be a little lucky. I'm just happy when our team makes it to the sweet 16.

Even though we did not make the tournament this year I was really pleased to see Christmas have such a great year. I hope he gets picked early first round in the NBA draft. Because of Christmas this year was not a total waste. Plus the team actually did a little better than expected. It was not one of favorite seasons but not one of my least favorite either.

 

[Millhouse]

Yeah I get that. But it supports my idea with two evenly matched teams we will have 50/50 chance. To win a national championship starting with the sweet 16 it's like flipping a coin and getting heads four times in row. It's not impossible but you have to be a little lucky. I'm just happy when our team makes it to the sweet 16.

Even though we did not make the tournament this year I was really pleased to see Christmas have such a great year. I hope he gets picked early first round in the NBA draft. Because of Christmas this year was not a total waste. Plus the team actually did a little better than expected. It was not one of favorite seasons but not one of my least favorite either.

boeheim does have a very intuitive sense of stats, he's no dummy. so maybe he assumes that we're not going to be in either tail and no matter what, we'll end up in that middle where there's not much difference between teams. it's not worth sacrificing a wall at the top of the zone for a marginal improvement in shooting.

as it's turned out, we've ended up in that bad tail too much. but maybe we've just been really unlucky.

 

[Dave85]

boeheim does have a very intuitive sense of stats, he's no dummy. so maybe he assumes that we're not going to be in either tail and no matter what, we'll end up in that middle where there's not much difference between teams. it's not worth sacrificing a wall at the top of the zone for a marginal improvement in shooting.

as it's turned out, we've ended up in that bad tail too much. but maybe we've just been really unlucky.

How many really good teams have made it to the sweet 16 and have not become national champions. More than I could count. It seems like every year a good team falls short..cough...cough...Villanova. How about Pitt? Holy moly. I think we've done pretty well through the tournament through the years.

 

[Millhouse]

How many really good teams have made it to the sweet 16 and have not become national champions. More than I could count. It seems like every year a good team falls short..cough...cough...Villanova. How about Pitt? Holy moly. I think we've done pretty well through the tournament through the years.

since 2006-2007, 57% correlation between SU's 3p% and SRS (simple rating system - measure of how good your team was at http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/syracuse/2007.html)

 

[Dave85]

since 2006-2007, 57% correlation between SU's 3p% and SRS (simple rating system - measure of how good your team was at http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/syracuse/2007.html)

I used to work with a statistician who used to say "correlation does not prove causation". I'm not sure I really ever understood what he meant by that. I guess he's referring to coincidences as opposed to direct relationships.

Either way, what do you mean by 57% correlation with regards to 3p%. Are you saying the numbers are showing 3p% translates to doing well in the tournament?

 

[AlaskaSU]

Nova shot 9/28 on Saturday. .321

Syracuse had 16 games below .321, and 15 above.

syracuse for the year was at .301 24th worst in D1.

If there wasn't so many other questions for boeheim, I sure would love to hear what he plans to do about this.

The median is .343. For SU to have gotten to the median. they would've needed to be 14% better at making three pointers. (hit 177 instead of 155)

For SU to crack the top 10%, they would've needed to hit 42 more three pointers (a 27% improvement)

shooting is a disaster at SU

If there wasn't so many other questions for boeheim, I sure would love to hear what he plans to do about this.
bench Cooney

 

[Millhouse]

I used to work with a statistician who used to say "correlation does not prove causation". I'm not sure I really ever understood what he meant by that. I guess he's referring to coincidences as opposed to direct relationships.

Either way, what do you mean by 57% correlation with regards to 3p%. Are you saying the numbers are showing 3p% translates to doing well in the tournament?

yes, that's what he meant.

the better we are at shooting 3 pointers, the better our team is. (SRS is just a way to sort teams based on their points for and points allowed adjusted by their opponents' points for and points allowed - it's a good ranking)

1 is perfect correlation, 0 is none, -1 is negative correlation (one number goes up while the other goes down)

so it's a moderate positive correlation. might be other variables driving the wins and 3p% is along for the ride.

most everything boeheim does is known. they're going to block shots, they're going to get steals, they're going to be average in 3p defense and very good in overall defense. so much boils down to whether they can hit 3s.

 

[Dave85]

yes, that's what he meant.

the better we are at shooting 3 pointers, the better our team is. (SRS is just a way to sort teams based on their points for and points allowed adjusted by their opponents' points for and points allowed - it's a good ranking)

1 is perfect correlation, 0 is none, -1 is negative correlation (one number goes up while the other goes down)

so it's a moderate positive correlation. might be other variables driving the wins and 3p% is along for the ride.

most everything boeheim does is known. they're going to block shots, they're going to get steals, they're going to be average in 3p defense and very good in overall defense. so much boils down to whether they can hit 3s.

One word: Malachi!

 

[Millhouse]

One word: Malachi!

are there any stats about how well he actually shoots the ball?

 

[Knicks411]

in 2009-10, we were 17th in 3 point %

since then


124
145
204
237
328

i don't need to bother with a chart for that, pretty clear!

maybe our good years have made boeheim too confident that he can find taller guys that can shoot

wes johnsons and andy rautinses don't grow on trees

Was gonna do this, I'll throw in the actual % and our rating in offensive efficiency

2010: 39.1%, 9th.
2011: 35.4%, 29th
2012: 34.9%, 7th (you could probably win a bet on us ranking higher offensively in 2012 v. 2010. A ton came from not turning the ball over
2013: 33.5%, 29th
2014: 33.1%, 37th
2015: 30%, 150th

Obviously 2015 is a nightmare. 2010 may be an outlier, 39% may be too much to ask, but we can have a top 20ish offense shooting around 34-35% from 3, which should be a reasonable goal. Obviously 3 point shooting is just one part of an offense; we almost always do a good job getting offensive boards. Another thing worth pointing out is our 2pt% has fallen off a cliff, same thing, 2 point%, then our rank in 2 point%, since we alreadsy know how we did offensively

2010: 57.1%, 1st
2011: 52.7% 14th
2012: 51.9%, 32nd
2013: 48.5%, 129th
2014: 47.7%, 213th
2015: 48.3,% 148th

 

[BuffOrange]

Was gonna do this, I'll throw in the actual % and our rating in offensive efficiency

2010: 39.1%, 9th.
2011: 35.4%, 29th
2012: 34.9%, 7th (you could probably win a bet on us ranking higher offensively in 2012 v. 2010. A ton came from not turning the ball over
2013: 33.5%, 29th
2014: 33.1%, 37th
2015: 30%, 150th

Obviously 2015 is a nightmare. 2010 may be an outlier, 39% may be too much to ask, but we can have a top 20ish offense shooting around 34-35% from 3, which should be a reasonable goal. Obviously 3 point shooting is just one part of an offense; we almost always do a good job getting offensive boards. Another thing worth pointing out is our 2pt% has fallen off a cliff, same thing, 2 point%, then our rank in 2 point%, since we alreadsy know how we did offensively

2010: 57.1%, 1st
2011: 52.7% 14th
2012: 51.9%, 32nd
2013: 48.5%, 129th
2014: 47.7%, 213th
2015: 48.3,% 148th

For sure. Chalk it up to the daily Rautins no-look fastball into the 3rd row. Almost as consistant as the Cooney 3on1 blown layup.

 

[SoBeCuse]

How many really good teams have made it to the sweet 16 and have not become national champions. More than I could count. It seems like every year a good team falls short..cough...cough...Villanova. How about Pitt? Holy moly. I think we've done pretty well through the tournament through the years.

Except that Syracuse gets better talent (on paper at least) than Pitt and Villanova.

 

[SoBeCuse]

The ultimate problem I think is what RF called "pedestrian" skill sets as of late. If you can't shoot or have only one-two guys who can shoot then you better be good at other things. Lots of teams struggle shooting. Take North Carolina and Arizona (last year). UNC and Arizona could not shoot but so many other guys were GREAT passers, good ball handlers, and could do other things if Paige or Nick Johnson were shut down. I don't know enough to say whether to say the staff made some poor choices with recruiting or if the scheme needs to be tweaked. On paper, it looks like Malachi and Lydon will be a step in the right direction but something needs to change obviously. The offense has been mostly a disaster the last few years and that is including our beloved departures in Grant/Ennis.

 

[Knicks411]

For sure. Chalk it up to the daily Rautins no-look fastball into the 3rd row. Almost as consistant as the Cooney 3on1 blown layup.

I always thought he got too much credit for his passing, precisely because of this

 

[Cheriehoop]

The ultimate problem I think is what RF called "pedestrian" skill sets as of late. If you can't shoot or have only one-two guys who can shoot then you better be good at other things. Lots of teams struggle shooting. Take North Carolina and Arizona (last year). UNC and Arizona could not shoot but so many other guys were GREAT passers, good ball handlers, and could do other things if Paige or Nick Johnson were shut down. I don't know enough to say whether to say the staff made some poor choices with recruiting or if the scheme needs to be tweaked. On paper, it looks like Malachi and Lydon will be a step in the right direction but something needs to change obviously. The offense has been mostly a disaster the last few years and that is including our beloved departures in Grant/Ennis.

We always had more or less a designated shooter but always coupled them with at least one highly effective scoring slasher/driver (usually a forward) that balanced the offense on the court.

 

[Dave85]

are there any stats about how well he actually shoots the ball?

In probably one of the biggest games in his career Malachi made 5 three-pointers. My hope is Malachi will be our long needed consistent outside threat who can make three-pointers under pressure. I just hope he doesn't have a case of freshmen-itus like KJo2 had this season.

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/game/score/2798395/

I haven't written KJo2 off as great outside shooter. My hope is we see a huge sophomore bounce for KJo2 in all phases of his game. He clearly at times looked very uncomfortable out on the court.

 

[kirbivore]

No, you don't want to know... But our strength/conditioning dept. seems inadequate. We looked like runts compared to the rest of the ACC.

Fire Will Hicks