Way Too Early 2026 Schedule Tier Breakdown

[sufan59]

Season ends tonight. With 12 games in the 2026 season, most of the portal acquisitions finished or close to finishing across the country. This is a way too early view of how I see the 2026 season schedule on paper with a healthy roster and Angeli as QB.

Very Likely Syracuse win
New Hampshire
Likely Syracuse win
At UConn
Slight Lean Syracuse Win
Clemson
SMU
Louisville
Toss Ups
California
at NC State
at Boston College
at North Carolina
Slight Lean Opponent Win
at Pittsburgh
at Virginia
Likely Opponent Win
Notre Dame

Floor: 4-8 (2-7 in the ACC)
Expectation: 7-5 (5-4 in the ACC)
Ceiling: 10-2 (8-1 in the ACC)

I said last season had a low floor and high ceiling before Angeli injury, This upcoming season, I think the floor has been raised from at least 2 wins to at least 4 wins with the addition of Odom as an insurance policy. I see a ceiling of 10 wins in the regular season with an 8-1 record in the ACC which could mean a trip to Charlotte. Basically the entire ACC schedule are slight leans either way and toss ups this upcoming season. A note, I think California at home will be the second toughest home game behind Notre Dame. At UConn, Syracuse has to show up and make a statement, UConn wants this one bad, this game makes me uneasy and logically it's a likely Syracuse win, but I almost put this one in the lean Syracuse category.

 

[CbusCuse]

I haven't read anything past the section, slight Syracuse Lean for a W. But If our 3rd, 4th and 5th most likely games to be W's are home games against Clemson, SMU and Louisville......it may be a rough season. And the @ UConn game ain't going to be a cakewalk unfortunately.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So the three best ACC teams we play are the likely wins?

We have 5 ACC road games and only 4 home. To expect to go 5-4 isn’t fair. That is fine for a goal but isn’t we should be record.

Miami couldn’t go 8-1 but we can? Heck 2024 SU went 5-3 in the ACC and this is a stronger ACC slate. Is this team better than 2024 SU?

 

[sufan59]

I haven't read anything past the section, slight Syracuse Lean for a W. But If our 3rd, 4th and 5th likely games to be W's are home games against Clemson, SMU and Louisville...it may be a rough season. And the Uconn game ain't going to be a cakewalk unfortunately.

I do put floors and ceilings for the season. The talent is so much more spread out outside of 10 teams at the top and even them aren't immune to teams that really come together and play clean football on any given Saturday. A takeaway from this post is that it is such a crapshoot. Going 2-1 against Clemson, SMU, and Louisville at home will be something that might need to happen for this team to go bowling.

 

[sufan59]

So the three best ACC teams we play are the likely wins?

We have 5 ACC road games and only 4 home. To expect to go 5-4 isn’t fair. That is fine for a goal but isn’t we should be record.

Miami couldn’t go 8-1 but we can? Heck 2024 SU went 5-3 in the ACC and this is a stronger ACC slate. Is this team better than 2024 SU?

Where do I say those are likely wins? Also, if they don't meet the expectation to go 5-4 in the ACC and 7-5 overall, I'm not going to be calling for Fran's firing. Now if they are less than 4-8 and 2-7 in the ACC, then real discussions need to be had because I thought they did a lot of work that suggests the floor has beenn raised in the program. I also base these tiers with the understanding that outside of the likely wins one way or the other, I could see wins and losses in all three of the middle tiers. As of right now, I also think California is the toughest home ACC game believe it or not.

 

[Archbold44]

Season ends tonight. With 12 games in the 2026 season, most of the portal acquisitions finished or close to finishing across the country. This is a way too early view of how I see the 2026 season schedule on paper with a healthy roster and Angeli as QB.

Very Likely Syracuse win
New Hampshire
Likely Syracuse win
At UConn
Slight Lean Syracuse Win
Clemson
SMU
Louisville
Toss Ups
California
at NC State
at Boston College
at North Carolina
Slight Lean Opponent Win
at Pittsburgh
at Virginia
Likely Opponent Win
Notre Dame

Floor: 4-8
Expectation: 7-5 (5-4 in the ACC)
Ceiling: 10-2 (8-1 in the ACC)

I said last season had a low floor and high ceiling before Angeli injury, This upcoming season, I think the floor has been raised from at least 2 wins to at least 4 wins with the addition of Odom as an insurance policy. I see a ceiling of 10 wins in the regular season with an 8-1 record in the ACC which could mean a trip to Charlotte. Basically the entire ACC schedule are slight leans either way and toss ups this upcoming season. A note, I think California at home will be the second toughest home game behind Notre Dame. At UConn, Syracuse has to show up and make a statement, UConn wants this one bad, this game makes me uneasy and logically it's a likely Syracuse win, but I almost put this one in the lean Syracuse category.

Likely win: New Hampshire
Likely loss: ND
The rest: 10 teams who have us penciled in as a "likely win" and only the optimistic Syracuse fan will think we can win a good bunch of them

BC and Pitt have yet to lose to Fran
Clemson and UConn are gunning for revenge after 2025
NC and NC State have coaches, at home, who may be playing for their own futures
SMU/Louisville may have playoff aspirations that require not losing to us, even on the road
Virginia/Cal may also have playoff aspirations

Find me one win in each linea bove? BC, UConn, NC State, Louisville (our big upset), and Cal (at home). That is three upsets, plus winning two road games in New England.

Floor: 3-9 (NH and only two others)
Expectation: 6-6 (find 5 wins beyond NH, somehow, someway)
Ceiling: 9-3 (find 3 more wins)
I think the over/under probably gets set at 4.5.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Year to year is different but this year the teams we play next season went...

#19 UVA 11-3 (7-1)
SMU 9-4 (6-2)
Pitt 8-5 (6-2)
Louisville 9-4 (4-4)
NC State 8-5 (4-4)
Cal 7-6 (4-4)
Clemson 7-6 (4-4)
UNC 4-8 (2-6)
BC 2-10 (1-7)
#11 Notre Dame 10-2
UConn 9-4
#23 New Hampshire 8-5


So 10 of 12 teams were over .500 for the season, and 8 of the 12 had eight wins or more. Seven of the nine ACC games are against teams that went .500 or better in conference. The two teams that were not above .500 overall beat us this year and are road games next year. They also have better X&O HCs than we do.


On D our coaching should be better but every new DC has the big jump in year 2. Happened with White, happened with Shafer. You see signs year 1, but year 2 is where it all comes together. Also our DC needs to get used to our opponents, who he is unfamiliar with. On top of that we only have 4 returning starters. That is a big overhaul of players.

On O we are very young and inexperienced everywhere but QB, who happens to be coming off a pretty big injury.


I think the goal should be over .500 in conference. That is a pretty good season given all of the above. If people are expecting that, there will be a lot of upset SU fans next year.

 

[Offthedome]

In the current climate who knows what other teams have lost / will lose and that will be a factor as well.