We need to go 12-6 in ACC Play | Syracusefan.com

We need to go 12-6 in ACC Play

I think you're right...9-4 now...add 12-6 = 21-10.
But in the ACC, we are not playing Northeastern every night.
We shot less than 50% from the FT line again last night.
Donnie can be a helluva player...if healthy.
Kyle III will be battling quality"bigs" every night and get into foul trouble often.
Honestly, I think this team will go 9-9 in the ACC...at best.
 
Is that enough if we only have one signature conference win? I don't know how to forecast NET, but I'm assuming we need to jump from 90 to, what, 45? To be among the top 34 at large teams?

In my job I do all I can to avoid making predictions. Instead I frame that exercise as "If we want to achieve [A] then we need [ B], [C], and [D] to happen."

I'm curious what those necessary things are to get our NET in range to be an at large selection.
 
Scooch said:
Is that enough if we only have one signature conference win? I don't know how to forecast NET, but I'm assuming we need to jump from 90 to, what, 45? To be among the top 34 at large teams?

In my job I do all I can to avoid making predictions. Instead I frame that exercise as "If we want to achieve [A] then we need , [C], and [D] to happen."

I'm curious what those necessary things are to get our NET in range to be an at large selection.
Expand...
We need to win 3 against the teams I mentioned above. You probably can throw NC State in that grouping as well.
 
Scooch said:
Ohhh, by "either" I thought you meant we needed to beat one of those 4 teams.
Expand...
Good catch. I had just woken up when I made the post. Maybe 2 will be fine considering they’re road games. We certainly cannot slip up at the dome more than a game with how difficult the road schedule is.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
We need to win 3 against the teams I mentioned above. You probably can throw NC State in that grouping as well.
Expand...
I can get on board with 12-6.

Realistically if Autry finished 10-8 in the ACC and we end up with another ACC 7-8 seed ppl would be saying fire him anyway and I prob would be too because that means we prob drop games to ND or a Cal or FSU.

There’s a lot of ACC teams that came out of their NonCon with great metrics. Basically their schedule played out how they wanted it to. The opposite of us.

The difference is that we actually played 4 teams that are projected to be 4 seeds or higher. Most ACC teams have played a bubble team at most and 1 ranked team tha beat them.

All we can do is wait and see what team shows up each game for ACC play. No room for error
 
Breakdown of the remaining games in ACC play

Sweep this
At Georgia Tech
At Pitt
Vs Florida State
At Boston College
Vs Notre Dame
Vs Pitt

Go at least 5-3 here
Vs Clemson
Vs Virginia Tech
Vs Miami
At NC State
Vs California
Vs SMU
Vs UNC
At Wake Forest

Win at least 1 of 4 here
At UNC
At Virginia
At Duke
At Louisville

The path to 12-6. I think all of the games in the go at least 5-3 here category are easier than Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee.
 
Last edited:
Cusefan0307 said:
Good catch. I had just woken up when I made the post. Maybe 2 will be fine considering they’re road games. We certainly cannot slip up at the dome more than a game with how difficult the road schedule is.
Expand...
Lol. We’re not going to beat three of those teams (UVA, UNC, Louisville, Duke) on the road. We’ll be very lucky to get two. Two would easily get us into the tourney if we win most of our home games and beat the teams we should. Winning one of those would get us into the tourney, too, as long as we also beat Clemson, UNC and Miami at home and/or NC State on the road.
 
sufan59 said:
Breakdown of the remaining games in ACC play

Sweep this
At Georgia Tech
At Pitt
Vs Florida State
At Boston College
Vs Notre Dame
Vs Pitt

Go at least 5-3 here
Vs Clemson
Vs Virginia Tech
Vs Miami
At NC State
Vs California
Vs SMU
Vs North Carolina
At Wake Forest

Win at least 1 of 4 here
At UNC
At Virginia
At Duke
At Louisville

The path to 12-6. I think all of the games in the go at least 5-3 here category are easier than Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee.
Expand...
Good breakdown. I think this is correct. Three Q1 wins should suffice. We already have one. We should have a bunch of q2 wins, too, if we win 5 in that middle section. I don’t know if we’ll get there but there is a clear path.
 
Last edited:
12-6 might sneak us into a play-in game if things break right, but even then, probably not enough.

We're 88th in the NET with 1 win in the top 3 Quads. We have a bad Quad 3 loss. We aren't even close to the bubble. 8-0 against Quad 4, we tried to game the system but teams were worse than expected and we didn't blow them all out.

To have any hope, we have to get some big wins and avoid bad losses.
Right now, 9 ACC teams are in the top 45 in the NET - I think that's good. Of course, we're 14th...
There are some opportunities to stack some wins and help the NET - have to get some wins over Clemson, Miami, SMU, Cal and UNC at home - probably need at least 3 of those, along with handling ND, VT.
Have to sneak a few wins on the road against better teams - @NC State, @Duke, @UNC, @UVA, @Louisville.
Obviously, can't be blowing games against Pitt, FSU, GTech or BC - 5 total games. Have 4 of those games to start January, so we'll need pretty quickly if this team has any real hope for the final 2 months.

Losing that Hofstra game and having only 1 win over the top 3 Quads is really a bad situation to be in heading into ACC play. It's going to be a real uphill battle for this team.
 
sufan59 said:
Breakdown of the remaining games in ACC play

Sweep this
At Georgia Tech
At Pitt
Vs Florida State
At Boston College
Vs Notre Dame
Vs Pitt

Go at least 5-3 here
Vs Clemson
Vs Virginia Tech
Vs Miami
At NC State
Vs California
Vs SMU
Vs UNC
At Wake Forest

Win at least 1 of 4 here
At UNC
At Virginia
At Duke
At Louisville

The path to 12-6. I think all of the games in the go at least 5-3 here category are easier than Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee.
Expand...
I should also add that for group 2 in your post, home vs UNC, at NC State, and at Wake should all likely be Q1 games. Clemson could also be a possibility but I don’t think they stay in the top 25.
 
Last edited:
Jasoncuse said:
12-6 might sneak us into a play-in game if things break right, but even then, probably not enough.

We're 88th in the NET with 1 win in the top 3 Quads. We have a bad Quad 3 loss. We aren't even close to the bubble. 8-0 against Quad 4, we tried to game the system but teams were worse than expected and we didn't blow them all out.

To have any hope, we have to get some big wins and avoid bad losses.
Right now, 9 ACC teams are in the top 45 in the NET - I think that's good. Of course, we're 14th...
There are some opportunities to stack some wins and help the NET - have to get some wins over Clemson, Miami, SMU, Cal and UNC at home - probably need at least 3 of those, along with handling ND, VT.
Have to sneak a few wins on the road against better teams - @NC State, @Duke, @UNC, @UVA, @Louisville.
Obviously, can't be blowing games against Pitt, FSU, GTech or BC - 5 total games. Have 4 of those games to start January, so we'll need pretty quickly if this team has any real hope for the final 2 months.

Losing that Hofstra game and having only 1 win over the top 3 Quads is really a bad situation to be in heading into ACC play. It's going to be a real uphill battle for this team.
Expand...
12-6 will be more than enough. You’re judging the conference based on prior years and you’re overrating how good 10 seeds are. We were an 8 seed in 2019 when we had two good wins beating Duke and Louisville. We also lost to Old Dominion at home.
 
sufan59 said:
Breakdown of the remaining games in ACC play

Sweep this
At Georgia Tech
At Pitt
Vs Florida State
At Boston College
Vs Notre Dame
Vs Pitt

Go at least 5-3 here
Vs Clemson
Vs Virginia Tech
Vs Miami
At NC State
Vs California
Vs SMU
Vs UNC
At Wake Forest

Win at least 1 of 4 here
At UNC
At Virginia
At Duke
At Louisville

The path to 12-6. I think all of the games in the go at least 5-3 here category are easier than Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee.
Expand...
I think this is fine, but if you tell me the 3 losses in the second grouping are UNC, State, and Clemson then I’m not sure it’s enough.
 
Jasoncuse said:
12-6 might sneak us into a play-in game if things break right, but even then, probably not enough.

We're 88th in the NET with 1 win in the top 3 Quads. We have a bad Quad 3 loss. We aren't even close to the bubble. 8-0 against Quad 4, we tried to game the system but teams were worse than expected and we didn't blow them all out.

To have any hope, we have to get some big wins and avoid bad losses.
Right now, 9 ACC teams are in the top 45 in the NET - I think that's good. Of course, we're 14th...
There are some opportunities to stack some wins and help the NET - have to get some wins over Clemson, Miami, SMU, Cal and UNC at home - probably need at least 3 of those, along with handling ND, VT.
Have to sneak a few wins on the road against better teams - @NC State, @Duke, @UNC, @UVA, @Louisville.
Obviously, can't be blowing games against Pitt, FSU, GTech or BC - 5 total games. Have 4 of those games to start January, so we'll need pretty quickly if this team has any real hope for the final 2 months.

Losing that Hofstra game and having only 1 win over the top 3 Quads is really a bad situation to be in heading into ACC play. It's going to be a real uphill battle for this team.
Expand...
12-6 with a couple of Q1 ACC wins (plus Tennessee non conference) and a bunch of Q2 would be enough. Our NET would be a lot higher with all those wins.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
I think this is fine, but if you tell me the 3 losses in the second grouping are UNC, State, and Clemson then I’m not sure it’s enough.
Expand...
True, Hofstra winning the CAA and the four from the gauntlet continuing to perform very well and Tennessee being at the top of the SEC will help a lot in the who you beat and lost too in the second grouping. If they beat Hofstra, I would be saying 11-7 is the path. Also, I’m considering what needs to be done to be atleast a 9 seed going into champ week and safe from bid stealers.
 
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sufan59 said:
In a scenario we are around a 10 seed and UConn is a 1 seed. I can see the committee bumping us to a 9 to hope for that second round matchup in the East. Let’s win games to put them in the position to do that.
Expand...
Extend Red indefinitely if we beat UConn in the tournament. Don’t read this team, I’m just imagining things. Focus on basketball. Level 5 and no dips.
 
People need to wipe the stink of the last 2-3 years of the ACC out of their minds. This is an 8 bid ACC league, and I'm not talking just Lunardi crap, that's overall consensus. Outside of Pitt and GTech being a mess in their noncon, the rest of the league was overall pretty solid. No offense to BC but they are where they were expected to be ha. The Big East is actually down too which is not going to hurt my feelings. The days of midmajor bidstealers and 3-4 team Mountain West bids are long gone.

Now it just becomes who separates in the ACC. Given Duke has shown they are in another league above and BC is in another league at the bottom. Here's what I'm thinking for ACC standings.

#1: Duke 16-2
#2-6: 15-3 to 12-6. Tourney locks for the next 5 top ACC teams. We need to be in this group.
#7-8: 11-7 to 10-8. Bubble but likely in to the play in games. Given Hostra and our terrible metrics this bucket is not us even if we sit here. We'll have to run way deep into the ACCT and we know how that goes. Personally not good enough to save Autry's job anyway in my opinion hoping to make play in games...
#9-17: 9-9 or sub 500 in the ACC. No reasonable path to tourney except for Finals of the ACCT.
#18 BC 2-16
 
RedtheGOB said:
People need to wipe the stink of the last 2-3 years of the ACC out of their minds. This is an 8 bid ACC league, and I'm not talking just Lunardi crap, that's overall consensus. Outside of Pitt and GTech being a mess in their noncon, the rest of the league was overall pretty solid. No offense to BC but they are where they were expected to be ha. The Big East is actually down too which is not going to hurt my feelings. The days of midmajor bidstealers and 3-4 team Mountain West bids are long gone.

Now it just becomes who separates in the ACC. Given Duke has shown they are in another league above and BC is in another league at the bottom. Here's what I'm thinking for ACC standings.

#1: Duke 16-2
#2-6: 15-3 to 12-6. Tourney locks for the next 5 top ACC teams. We need to be in this group.
#7-8: 11-7 to 10-8. Bubble but likely in to the play in games. Given Hostra and our terrible metrics this bucket is not us even if we sit here. We'll have to run way deep into the ACCT and we know how that goes. Personally not good enough to save Autry's job anyway in my opinion hoping to make play in games...
#9-17: 9-9 or sub 500 in the ACC. No reasonable path to tourney except for Finals of the ACCT.
#18 BC 2-16
Expand...
I think you’re vastly overrating the ACC. I’ll be very surprised if we get even 6 bids as a league, 5 seems more likely.
 

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