Mind explaining to us why you think that? Do you think Midmajors are going to magically get more bids by playing within their conference or the SEC and B1G are going to put 11-12 teams in? The BigEast surely isn't a 6 bid league with only UConn that has shown anything so far.
We need to go 12-6 in ACC Play
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Cusefan0307
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SEC an ACC are even this year. The two Bigs are the best conferences. No one is getting more than 10.
50YRsofCuse
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12-6 in conference or (20-8 overall) May not be enough to get in the tournament. I figure 12-6 and a deep run (3 or more wins, the more the better) in the ACC tournament might be more realistic.
Agree. 12 -6 is no guarantee.
There is a path to 12 wins and the best ACC win would be at Wake or home against Clemson. Those 12 wins could be Pitt twice, at BC, at Ga tech, Clemson, FSU, Va Tech, Miami, SMU, Cal, ND and at Wake. 6 losses would be to anyone good (UNC twice, at Duke, at Ville, at UVA, at NC State).
12 wins could be enough but you would need to win a couple out of the tougher game bucket.
The non conference did not help us much at all. The Tenn game stands out but we will need at least another quad 1 win.
Cuse
Cusefan0307
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In that scenario as stands Miami and Wake would be q1. Clemson is borderline.
Sherman20
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I don’t think you’re paying attention. Duke, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Clemson, Miami and NC State already have solid resumes, top 40 in KenPom, and will probably be in the top half of the conference. That’s 7 teams right there. SMU, Syracuse, Wake, ND, Virginia Tech and Cal are in the next level and could easily work their way into the conversation.
Sherman20
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Clemson, Miami and SMU are all top 50 in KenPom. Those would be good Q2 wins, even at home.
jncuse
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The problem with your job analogy above, is that individual NET is not factor "A". Individual NET (or prior to that RPI) is not how teams are chosen and never has been. We have gotten in the tournament with both a high NET and high RPI.
Its faulty to think we a team has hit "x" number to get in the tournament. We have seen in the same year teams in the mid 20's and teams in the 60's get equal consideration for final bids (2024 for example)
Generally you will see a high correlation between NET of 40 and getting in the tournament, because those teams with NET's of 40 and above have a good resume (quality wins). But its not 100% and each year there are resume outliers.
The ACC is strong enough that Syracuse going 11-7 or 12-6, would at least get your NET into the 60's. You can't win that many ACC games this year without moving up in the rankings.
It then comes down to how many quality wins we have, and the factors around us... how many bubble busters that year. A big positive this year is that we are not conference #5/#6, and conference 5/6 are not strong this year (Big East/MWC0.
jncuse
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I think 12-6 is the safe number.
I think 11-7 is a decent possibility as well to get in, the ACC is hanging with the top 4 conferences this year, and BE/MWC are well down.
I'm much more concerned about our ability to win 11 ACC games this year, than what happens tourney wise if we go 11-7. The ACC has taken a step up, and we have been very inconsistent.
That Hofstra game though was huge in a bad way... those numbers above fall to 10-8 and 11-7 without it.
Why do you think Kyle will be getting into foul trouble often? He didn't get into foul trouble vs Houston, Kansas, Tennessee did he?
If we end up gettting an invite to the NIT tournament, will that be seen as improvement since we haven't been to any post season tournament in 5 years and enough for Red to keep his job? Or because of the upgrade in talent is it NCAA Tourney or bust?
Orangezoo
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No way it’s NCAA or bust. NIT means nothing. We turned down NIT in his first year.
Cusefan0307
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We declined 2 years ago. No way.
Does Wildhack agree with that?
Miami is #35 in current NET. Clemson is #38. For a Home game to be Quad 1, teams need to be ranked 1-30. Possible but not as of 12/22
Wake is #67 so currently in the top 75 so a quad 1 win.
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Goin' Deep
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No..it's a good question.
I just think his mild lack of size, mixed with substantial PT will lead to a 4th foul with 8 minutes left.
I know Kyle can leap out of the gym- he can block shots. But can he bang with that 6'10" 260 lber?
We'll see...
jncuse
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12-6 in the ACC will get our NET into acceptable level for consideration, and should get the quality wins - a factor you did lay out with 9 of top 45.
I think your focusing a but too much on Individual NET for excluding us, but you have acknowledged that the ACC isn't going to be a negative like prior years.
jncuse
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Miami is #35 in current NET. Clemson is #38. For a Home game to be Quad 1, teams need to be ranked 1-30. Possible but not as of 12/22
Wake is #67 so currently in the top 75 so a quad 1 win.
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When you are on the bubble though the difference between a team #29 or #33 is not going to make a big difference. They take a deep dive into the resumes of those teams when comparing head to head .. if team #33 is a tourney team, you are likely not getting more or less credit because they are not #29. Of course we want them to be Q1's... but Q1's and Q2's that are tourney teams are going to help.
CuseTG2003
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At least 12-6 w/ at least a couple marquee wins sounds about right
This is the correct answer! There's a certain reality check built into our ACC schedule too. It is manageable and it is full of new coaches that we need to beat every year. Autry needs to show he can be that guy and not leave any question marks not just be blah we snuck in. There's too many rookie ACC coaches to pretend that we can't find a legit top tier coach that will outcoach them every year.
We're basically asking to get 3 games over 500, it's not unheard of. Plus we get Pitt twice.
Every year fans on this board over-estimate how many wins it will take to get in the tournament. I think everyone forgets just how bad the bubble is each year in a 68 team field. Unc got in last year with like 1-10 record vs quad 1. Considering the top 10 is so strong this year, I think the bubble is going to have less top level wins compared to previous years.
The ACC isn’t great, but it’s respectable this year. Realistically 12-6 would get this team in, and very likely would avoid the play-in game.
That being said, there’s been nothing over the last 2 weeks that makes me think this is a tournament team, so this is all a moot point anyways.
The ACC isn’t great, but it’s respectable this year. Realistically 12-6 would get this team in, and very likely would avoid the play-in game.
That being said, there’s been nothing over the last 2 weeks that makes me think this is a tournament team, so this is all a moot point anyways.
Eric15
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IMO, this team's ceiling is a season like 2018-19 when we're a 8/9 seed in the tourney, and this team's floor is a season like 2023-24 where we finish around .500 in conference and are never in real contention as a bubble team. Clemson feels like a crossroads game to nudge us in one of these directions or the other.
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