what do the optimists predict for yardages this year?

[Millhouse]

i'd like to stick to conference games. out of conference is tricky - skewed by whether you roll it up or take foot off the gas against fcs teams. Maine, Colgate, URI etc.

Last year, offense 353 ypg against conference teams. 83rd in the country.
60th = 385
40th = 409
20th = 454

Defense, 365 ypg allowed against conference teams. 43rd.

60th = 388
40th = 362
20th = 332

If I were optimistic about this year, I would argue that they don't need to be that much better on either side of the ball to have a better record. 353 yards gained and 365 yards allowed will rarely result in a 1-6 conference record. Rutgers and UCOnn jump out. A 3-4 record would line up with the yardages more than 1-6.

If you think we get to 7 wins, let's just assume we go 3-2 out of conference and 4-3 in conference.

Where does the yardage come from? I doubt it'll come from the defense - 30 more yards puts us in top 20.

I assume that most optimists think we'll get 30 more ypg out of the offense and hope the defense holds steady at 43rd. (With the losses on defense, "would you take it - 43rd in the country" applies. I think most would)

I think the defense falls back and the offense stays where it is. You know how i feel about the passing game and I think they'll miss bailey tiller and hay more than others do.

I think 2 wins out of conference and 2 wins in conference is most likely. Yards isn't everything, turnovers make or break seasons, I get that but it's impossible to predict that.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Yardage is too hard to predict and IMHO not always the best indicator.

Our defense could give up more yardage and less PPG if our special teams aren't so "special".

Our offense could put up more PPG on similar yardage if the defense gives them the ball closer to midfield AND we turn a few more of those short FG's into TD's.

 

[Millhouse]

Yardage is too hard to predict and IMHO not always the best indicator.

Our defense could give up more yardage and less PPG if our special teams aren't so "special".

Our offense could put up more PPG on similar yardage if the defense gives them the ball closer to midfield AND we turn a few more of those short FG's into TD's.

if you can't predict yards how can you predict record?

if the offense keeps the same yardage but the defensive yards allowed goes down (better field position), that will be reflected in the defensive yards allowed improvement.

yards are yards - that's why i look at both o and d. i know it's not perfect. kicking game and turnovers factor in

all this stuff is hard to predict.

i think if they get 40 ypg from somewhere, they can win 7 games. (i think people are too cavalier about assuming that a 40 yard swing is easy, I think it might be worse - i think the defense can go down more than the offense goes up)

 

[ImperialOrange]

i think if they get 40 ypg from somewhere, they can win 7 games. (i think people are too cavalier about assuming that a 40 yard swing is easy, I think it might be worse - i think the defense can go down more than the offense goes up)

We could get that 40 ypg (hopefully more) from special teams and it won't show up in the box score. That would be the easiest place to find it if our special teams go from dreadful to adequate.

I'm not disagreeing with the "we need to find yards" point just simply that it could come from other areas.

Points win games. Being one of the board optimists I'll got with +6 ppg from the offense & -6 PPG given up by the defense. That's ~1.5 FG per game that goes for a TD instead and 1 less TD per game given up by the defense.

I think improved special teams gives us the easiest route to acheive those numbers along with incremental improvement from the O and a bit bigger jump for the D.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

to meI think the defense gets better this year due to the back 7, I think The D line with what we have coming in will be fine. As long as Iowa dude plays and Bromley is healthy. Sure we will miss C Jones but it will hold sufficiently. Linebacker play has to get better.

I think the O will be the same thing we have always seen. We catch a few breaks, team plays better the last 5. I see 2-2 OOC and 3-4/4-3 in conference

I have said 6-6 even though everyone seems to think I have predicted DOOM, I haven't just don't think the offense gets much better or looks any different with nassib at qb, unless some of these young kids step up. I don't think the running backs are as bad as many feel but I think Bailiey was good. Sales back is great, Provo gone is bad. I think we miss Hay and Tiller as well, everyone says we did not recruit well but those guys had decent offers and yes Hay lost his mind as well quite a bit but he played tough and nasty, which I always liked, stuck up for teammates on the field as well, which lead to personal fouls at times. Don't see the O Line getting any better this year.

The O absolutely needs some bigger plays, the 15 play drives tha result in punts at the opponents 38 don't cut it or field goals

 

[PhatOrange]

i'd like to stick to conference games. out of conference is tricky - skewed by whether you roll it up or take foot off the gas against fcs teams. Maine, Colgate, URI etc.

Last year, offense 353 ypg against conference teams. 83rd in the country.
60th = 385
40th = 409
20th = 454

Defense, 365 ypg allowed against conference teams. 43rd.

60th = 388
40th = 362
20th = 332

If I were optimistic about this year, I would argue that they don't need to be that much better on either side of the ball to have a better record. 353 yards gained and 365 yards allowed will rarely result in a 1-6 conference record. Rutgers and UCOnn jump out. A 3-4 record would line up with the yardages more than 1-6.

If you think we get to 7 wins, let's just assume we go .500 out of conference and 4-3 in conference.

Where does the yardage come from? I doubt it'll come from the defense - 30 more yards puts us in top 20.

I assume that most optimists think we'll get 30 more ypg out of the offense and hope the defense holds steady at 43rd. (With the losses on defense, "would you take it - 43rd in the country" applies. I think most would)

I think the defense falls back and the offense stays where it is. You know how i feel about the passing game and I think they'll miss bailey tiller and hay more than others do.

I think 2 wins out of conference and 2 wins in conference is most likely. Yards isn't everything, turnovers make or break seasons, I get that but it's impossible to predict that.

Sorry I'm too lazy to look it up but how does PPG factor in ? What was ours for/against?

 

[upperdeck]

I think we could stay the same in yds on D, create more TO's , less big plays allowed, and have the offense score a few more times on big plays, that would equate to less Fg's and more scoring. much like the USC game last year, we moved it well enough to score more than 17 pts , same for the Rutgers game.

same thing could be the offense has more explosive plays, scores more points, and causes the D to give up more yards.

I really hope we find a way to get 4-5 scores from the ST and the D that alone could be the difference

 

[Millhouse]

I think we could stay the same in yds on D, create more TO's , less big plays allowed, and have the offense score a few more times on big plays, that would equate to less Fg's and more scoring. much like the USC game last year, we moved it well enough to score more than 17 pts , same for the Rutgers game.

same thing could be the offense has more explosive plays, scores more points, and causes the D to give up more yards.

I really hope we find a way to get 4-5 scores from the ST and the D that alone could be the difference

big plays would also mean more yards.

hoping for scores from ST and D and hoping for turnovers is really just hoping for luck, especially when you don't have a dominant pass rusher. that's why they're so valuable.

i don't see how anyone could predict turnover margin or special teams stuff. that is gravy.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Sorry I'm too lazy to look it up but how does PPG factor in ? What was ours for/against?

2011 for 24.16 against 26.25

 

[Millhouse]

Sorry I'm too lazy to look it up but how does PPG factor in ? What was ours for/against?

in conference it was 28 allowed 21 scored.

if i were an optimist, i would look at the yards being close and say "most years yardage that close to even will result in points closer to even"

 

[IthacaBarrel]

big plays would also mean more yards.

hoping for scores from ST and D and hoping for turnovers is really just hoping for luck, especially when you don't have a dominant pass rusher. that's why they're so valuable.

i don't see how anyone could predict turnover margin or special teams stuff. that is gravy.

yep, didn't help ourselves at all last year. Key is some bigger plays on offense which equals more yards and hopefully more points. long drives ask too much of everyone

 

[MattyL]

Interesting topic Millhouse. As mentioned earlier in the thread, special teams plays a role in this discussion as well. We were dreadful in many specials areas last year. I like Krautman, and hopefully Norton provides more distance in kickoffs. We must cover kicks and punts better. The overall depth on the team has improved, so hopefully more quality players are making plays on coverage. Making our opponents go 75 yards instead of 60 would be huge. As for our return men, we have the athletes to be fine here. I know Rene was out there to catch the ball cleanly, but hopefully Marrone lets Desir (or whoever gets the PR spot) be more aggressive on returns.

I know I didn't get to the point of this thread. But I'd argue that if our offense and defense could stay close to last year, and specials goes from awful to average, we will go to a bowl this year. Marrone is in charge of specials this year too, so he MUST have them ready.

 

[Chip]

We have to get to 400 yards average on offense, just have to. As your #'s point out, that's not even what it used to be, doesn't get you in the Top 40.

I think the D will be better. Better staff with defined roles, LBs were very young and green last year at their spots. Secondary is deeper, and I think better. D Line is tricky. Chandler was the best one there, but we didn't have him for a stretch either, so it's not like we're replacing Dwight Freeney's 2001 season. If we can keep 8 rotating on the DL and trust that each can perform, the D really should improve overall, including turnovers forced.

If the offense can just execute better, they can get to the 400 yard average. Don't miss the open guys, don't drop passes, don't fumble, Nassib throw it away when he has to, but also get more courageous on the primary receiver (i.e. play like a 5th year senior). Go is right though that the running game needs to improve. I'm worried about the OL, but hoping that having fresh backs in there all game long can get better production out of the run game.

4-3 conference. 3-2 non conference. Dropping each of those by 1 and having a 5 win season would disappoint, but not surprise me. It's the annual time for optimism, I realize. But if not now, then never. So I'm taking full advantage.

Wish more games were in the Dome, but need to take that first one. Marrone is 1-1 in BCS conf opponent openers in the Dome. Both went to OT. So I expect this to be close too. I don't expect a Washington type performance from 2007.

 

[OrangeMojo]

i'd like to stick to conference games. out of conference is tricky - skewed by whether you roll it up or take foot off the gas against fcs teams. Maine, Colgate, URI etc.

Last year, offense 353 ypg against conference teams. 83rd in the country.
60th = 385
40th = 409
20th = 454

Defense, 365 ypg allowed against conference teams. 43rd.

60th = 388
40th = 362
20th = 332

If I were optimistic about this year, I would argue that they don't need to be that much better on either side of the ball to have a better record. 353 yards gained and 365 yards allowed will rarely result in a 1-6 conference record. Rutgers and UCOnn jump out. A 3-4 record would line up with the yardages more than 1-6.

If you think we get to 7 wins, let's just assume we go .500 out of conference and 4-3 in conference.

Where does the yardage come from? I doubt it'll come from the defense - 30 more yards puts us in top 20.

I assume that most optimists think we'll get 30 more ypg out of the offense and hope the defense holds steady at 43rd. (With the losses on defense, "would you take it - 43rd in the country" applies. I think most would)

I think the defense falls back and the offense stays where it is. You know how i feel about the passing game and I think they'll miss bailey tiller and hay more than others do.

I think 2 wins out of conference and 2 wins in conference is most likely. Yards isn't everything, turnovers make or break seasons, I get that but it's impossible to predict that.

optimist here - offense I'm expecting about 375 yds/game and defense around 370 yds/game (significantly better defense but tougher schedule)

Thinking approx 7 wins if Nassib stays healthy and Pugh returns to prior form for the BE schedule.

 

[javadoc]

i'd like to stick to conference games.

Last year, offense 353 ypg against conference teams. 83rd in the country.

Defense, 365 ypg allowed against conference teams. 43rd.

25 more ypg on offense due to guys getting YAC.

10 less ypg on D due to depth and size on the DL, experience at LB, and better coaching at LB/DB.

Defense scores more than it did last year.

7-5.

 

[wfschrec]

I am the optimist ... Offense = +20ypg Defense = -10 ypg ... I think the D improves slightly over last seasons version ... plus I think our in conference foes are weaker than they were last year ... plus having more beef upfront will make it harder for teams to try and control the clock and run the ball down our throats a la UConn ... I think we also have more depth and viable options on O making us a little more dangerous on that side of the ball. Overall I could hypothetically see a 30 ypg swing.

 

[Millhouse]

thought it might be interesting to see how common certain yardage improvements are.
for conference games from 2010 to 2011
a 30 yard improvement would've been the 42nd best improvement
40 yards = 36th best improvement
50 yards = 31st best
60 yards = 25th
70 yards = 21st
80 yards = 14th - guess who - Syracuse
90 yards = 13th
100 yards = 12th

toledo went up 140 yards in conf games

optimist argument - we only need to improve half as much as last year, last year's conference record was a bad fluke.

i don't have any quick vlookup way of telling which of those teams had new qbs.

we had 274 yards per game in 2010

YUCK

i still can't blame marrone for being in shorten the game mode. walk before you can run. literally

 

[All4SU]

Special teams will have a big impact on this. Field position was a losing battle for us last season. Between not getting KOs deep enough consistently, and allowing more on returns than we should have, our opponents frequently worked with a shorter field. On the opposite side, we were backed up on offense too often.

I expect both of those situations to improve this year. On KOs, the rule change bringing the ball 5 more yards up, should help, as well as perhaps a little more leg strength on KOs, and more experience ST players. (We were pretty green last year due to lack of depth.) On returns, hopefully that increased experience and HCDM's hands-on approach will improve our return game.

Bottom line is, we may be better on offense and D without necessarily increasing our offensive yardage, or our defensive yardage allowed.

 

[All4SU]

Interesting topic Millhouse. As mentioned earlier in the thread, special teams plays a role in this discussion as well. We were dreadful in many specials areas last year. I like Krautman, and hopefully Norton provides more distance in kickoffs. We must cover kicks and punts better. The overall depth on the team has improved, so hopefully more quality players are making plays on coverage. Making our opponents go 75 yards instead of 60 would be huge. As for our return men, we have the athletes to be fine here. I know Rene was out there to catch the ball cleanly, but hopefully Marrone lets Desir (or whoever gets the PR spot) be more aggressive on returns.

I know I didn't get to the point of this thread. But I'd argue that if our offense and defense could stay close to last year, and specials goes from awful to average, we will go to a bowl this year. Marrone is in charge of specials this year too, so he MUST have them ready.

I don't think our returns (Punt and KOs) necessarily mean a great deal more effort or talent from our returners. I don't think our coverage and return SQUADS need to improve. Last year, I think we pushed a lot of young guys into those roles. Hopefully, that experience will pay off this year.

 

[RF2044]

I'll bite--I think we can / will get to +40 yards per game this year, for three main reasons. First, I expect the offensive execution to improve over last year, and I think we have a few more big play threats than what we had last year. Second, the WR corps is improved as a unit [and potentially much improved over last year]. Third, I don't expect defenses to be able to sell out so much to stop the run, or take as many risks daring us to beat them deep while they bring kitchen sink pressure to disrupt the play [the Broyld factor].

In my mind, #3 alone should enable us to move the ball easier.

Hope the OL holds up, because I think that many of the other pieces are in place for this offense to take a step forward.

 

[Townie72]

Optimists? You are looking for optimists on here?

Clearly you have lost your way. You were looking for the Rutgers forum where they start with the NC as a goal in August and slowly ratchet down through the BE championship on their way to 4th tier bowl game.

You'll find no optimists on here as a general rule.

Now its true that this fan base hasn't had a lot to be optimistic about since the middle years of the Pasqualoni regime. Some wild-eyed glass-half-full types raised their heads up before the collapse of 2011.

So chalk it up to a bad ten years and to the negativity bred into all Central New Yorkers.

 

[Millhouse]

Optimists? You are looking for optimists on here?

Clearly you have lost your way. You were looking for the Rutgers forum where they start with the NC as a goal in August and slowly ratchet down through the BE championship on their way to 4th tier bowl game.

You'll find no optimists on here as a general rule.

Now its true that this fan base hasn't had a lot to be optimistic about since the middle years of the Pasqualoni regime. Some wild-eyed glass-half-full types raised their heads up before the collapse of 2011.

So chalk it up to a bad ten years and to the negativity bred into all Central New Yorkers.

thanks for that strange contribution to an otherwise normal thread

 

[690West]

Marrone is 1-1 in BCS conf opponent openers in the Dome. Both went to OT. So I expect this to be close too.

And Vegas agrees...

 

[Chip]

i'd like to stick to conference games. out of conference is tricky - skewed by whether you roll it up or take foot off the gas against fcs teams. Maine, Colgate, URI etc.

Last year, offense 353 ypg against conference teams. 83rd in the country.
60th = 385
40th = 409
20th = 454

Defense, 365 ypg allowed against conference teams. 43rd.

60th = 388
40th = 362
20th = 332

If I were optimistic about this year, I would argue that they don't need to be that much better on either side of the ball to have a better record. 353 yards gained and 365 yards allowed will rarely result in a 1-6 conference record. Rutgers and UCOnn jump out. A 3-4 record would line up with the yardages more than 1-6.

If you think we get to 7 wins, let's just assume we go .500 out of conference and 4-3 in conference.

Where does the yardage come from? I doubt it'll come from the defense - 30 more yards puts us in top 20.

I assume that most optimists think we'll get 30 more ypg out of the offense and hope the defense holds steady at 43rd. (With the losses on defense, "would you take it - 43rd in the country" applies. I think most would)

I think the defense falls back and the offense stays where it is. You know how i feel about the passing game and I think they'll miss bailey tiller and hay more than others do.

I think 2 wins out of conference and 2 wins in conference is most likely. Yards isn't everything, turnovers make or break seasons, I get that but it's impossible to predict that.

By the way, I find the defense rank of 43 to be pretty shocking. Seems like a lot of teams had their way with us last year, either on the ground or thru the air. Hard to imagine that our defense wouldn't be a better unit than last year, but I guess it might not show up in the rankings if those were last year's #'s.

 

[GoSU96]

thought it might be interesting to see how common certain yardage improvements are.
for conference games from 2010 to 2011
a 30 yard improvement would've been the 42nd best improvement
40 yards = 36th best improvement
50 yards = 31st best
60 yards = 25th
70 yards = 21st
80 yards = 14th - guess who - Syracuse
90 yards = 13th
100 yards = 12th

toledo went up 140 yards in conf games

optimist argument - we only need to improve half as much as last year, last year's conference record was a bad fluke.

i don't have any quick vlookup way of telling which of those teams had new qbs.

we had 274 yards per game in 2010

YUCK

i still can't blame marrone for being in shorten the game mode. walk before you can run. literally

I see the light has come on.