what explains the betting line?

[Millhouse]

something really strange must be going on at FSU because on paper, it doesn't make any sense for the line to be so close

is this people saying "willie taggart is at FSU? for real? that's not going to end well"

there must be some relative few who know something betting huge bucks

 

[upperdeck]

FSU is big time, and SU has sucked for years.. the line was down to -1 and back to -4 for awhile

 

[cuse309]

Odds makers tend to take into account the talent gap. Statistically, on paper, through 2 games, Syracuse should be favored. Talent wise FSU should be about a 17-20 point favorite. They have a much higher ceiling.
If I'm an odds maker, I would take into account what both teams have done so far, and what both teams could do if playing in a vacuum.
The fact that it went from -1 to -4 tells me that most people are betting on FSU.

 

[Millhouse]

FSU is big time, and SU has sucked for years.. the line was down to -1 and back to -4 for awhile

i know. that's why i'm surprised it's such a small spread

 

[All4SU]

If I’m Vegas, my only concern is how I expect people to bet, not who is better, or who has more talent.

 

[BuffOrange]

You know there were +4 in turnovers vs Samford&Son and were losing after 3Qtrs right?

 

[TheCusian]

i know. that's why i'm surprised it's such a small spread

Some of it's national relevance related - they are thought of as a powerhouse and the last week has been "what's happened to FSU?"

And some of it is that they've sucked and their line play on O is really bad.

 

[bpo57]

Been listening to VSIN all week and some of their guys have been all over SU, really like them in this game. I noticed the line dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 yesterday in some shops. That's a big move. I think there is a lot of bettor respect for ED. Bettors also remember what SU did last year against Clemson, FSU and the U.

 

[PhatOrange]

what would Ace say?

 

[CusefanATL]

Some of it's national relevance related - they are thought of as a powerhouse and the last week has been "what's happened to FSU?"

And some of it is that they've sucked and their line play on O is really bad.

Millhouse is surprised that FSU is NOT favored by more.

 

[OrangeMojo]

The fact that Dino has won one of these games at home against big name teams each of his first two seasons - and those teams didn’t look like &@#$ before heading to the dome probably plays a part.

Even the ESPN matchup predictor gives SU a 57% probability to win outright

 

[Reyes39]

Parlayed Cuse +3.5 and O 63.0, LGO!

 

[Cusefan0307]

Just listened to their beat writer on the radio. FSU has real issues on the lines and the secondary. Their best DB is 5’9” and their o-line has been a sieve the first two games.

I don’t care how fast you are if you can’t block you are in trouble.

 

[bpo57]

Parlayed Cuse +3.5 and O 63.0, LGO!

Three teamed SU + 13.5, TCU + 23 and Ball State + 24.5.

 

[Alsacs]

FSU has a crap OL and problems at LB.
Their talent should be a 10-14 Point favorite but Eric Dungey Sr. QB + SU beating Clemson and HFA mean the point spread is lower.

The talent gap is why Vegas has to make FSU favored.

 

[CuseCactus]

Hopefully FSU comes out bored and listless - after having spent a night in some dreary travel hotel. Feeling that this game is beneath them. All those glorious 4 and 5* heroes - having to play above the Mason Dixon line - in an itty bitty stadium.

 

[SUFan44]

sutomcat is very bullish on this game. That leads me to believe I should be too.

GO ORANGE!

 

[IthacaMatt]

i know. that's why i'm surprised it's such a small spread

A line moving 3 points is a huge swing. That allows bettors who got in at the right time to potentially win 2 bets on opposite teams in the same game.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Hopefully FSU comes out bored and listless - after having spent a night in some dreary travel hotel. Feeling that this game is beneath them. All those glorious 4 and 5* heroes - having to play above the Mason Dixon line - in an itty bitty stadium.

I hope they have travel trouble getting here and don't get to their hotel until very late.

 

[TheCusian]

Millhouse is surprised that FSU is NOT favored by more.

Right. They’d be favored by more if they’d blown up the last two opponents. They didn’t, everyone noticed and their OL problems are legit

 

[CusefanATL]

Right. They’d be favored by more if they’d blown up the last two opponents. They didn’t, everyone noticed and their OL problems are legit

The line is only FSU -3 because of FSU reputation. If you put a Marshall logo on FSU, Cuse would be favored in this game, no question.

Take the money line.

 

[TheCusian]

The line is only FSU -3 because of FSU reputation. If you put a Marshall logo on FSU, Cuse would be favored in this game, no question.

Take the money line.

I think it has more to do with recruiting rankings and talent than the logo. But rep does play a part.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I think Syracuse’s either wins outright or FSU easily covers .. either FSU has figured something out or they haven’t ..

the way their offensive play calling looked vs v tech was embarrassing .

 

[jgeorge322]

We have the better qb

 

[CousCuse]

IF in the first game against WMU Dino hadn't put the back up QB in and sent the message to his team that the game was basically over, I believe Syracuse would have continued to steamroll them and the final score would have been something like 65-14. Vegas handicappers observed that and with FSU on unsure ground I think they calculate that SU could well come out like that at home in the dome. So they don't want a line out there pushing too much money on FSU which in their thinking is gambling.