What is your prediction for Nassibs progression next season?

[ImperialOrange]

Going off the premise that Nassib will be our starter for all of next season so please take any personal vendetta elsewhere.

For all his consitancy issues Nassib did improve statistically last year vs what was decidedly a tougher schedule and with one less weapon at WR. Given that, a linear projected improvement isn't much of a stretch.

Season : 2010 -----> 2011 -----> 2012 projected
Comp%: 56.4 ----> 62.4 -----> 69
Yards : 2334 ----> 2685 -----> 3088
TD : 19 ----> 22 -----> 25
INT : 8 ----> 9 -----> 10
Comp : 202 ----> 259
Att : 358 ----> 415

If Nassib has identical progression he will on pace to complete 69% for over 3000 yards with 25 TD's and 10 int's. On paper that looks like a pretty good season but will that be enough to silence the naysayers? It would be nice to have him put up huge numbers but personally I'd like to see improved production (262 completions vs 380 attempts = 69%) on fewer attempts since more attempts will mean the running game isn't much of a weapon once again.

IMHO if he shows somewhere close to linear improvement and the running game can get back to at least 2010 production (1822 yards 4.1 YPC 13 TDs vs 1445 yards 3.6 YPC 10 TDs) our offense should look competent finally. If we can get 3000+ yards w/ 25 TDs from Nassib and 2000+ yards w/ 20 TDs from the running game we should very much be in the running to win the conference since the defense should improve.

So 69% / 3000 yards / 25 TD's / 10 int's is a somewhat logical progression for Nassib. I'm looking for him to acheive this with 262 completions on 380 attempts.

As a fan what do you expect he'll acheive? What do you hope he'll acheive? any reasoning for it?

 

[orangenauburn]

Mine:

Season : 2010 -----> 2011 -----> 2012 projected
Comp%: 56.4 ----> 62.4 -----> 63.8
Yards : 2334 ----> 2685 -----> 2860
TD : 19 ----> 22 -----> 27
INT : 8 ----> 9 -----> 13
Comp : 202 ----> 259----->275
Att : 358 ----> 415-----> 431

More TD's because we will convert more in the RZ next year

 

[KaiserUEO]

i dont have a vendetta, but when i read this.....Going off the premise that Nassib will be our starter for all of next season....i gave up on next season.

Oh Lord

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Not big on guessing numbers- but I think he'll be quite good next year.

Nassib is the ultimate grass-is-always greener guy. We bring in raw players as QB's. Some how, some way, a Freshman or Redshirt Freshman QB is going to unseat a 5th year senior who has seen the field in the three previous seasons? Right.

 

[xc84]

Not big on guessing numbers- but I think he'll be quite good next year.

Nassib is the ultimate grass-is-always greener guy. We bring in raw players as QB's. Some how, some way, a Freshman or Redshirt Freshman QB is going to unseat a 5th year senior who has seen the field in the three previous seasons? Right.

The best QB will start. If that's Nassib, great. If not, Nassib will be the back-up. I don't believe Nassib will start all games next year. I think someone will emerge...raw or not, that has the intangibles that Nassib lacks.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

I think someone will emerge...raw or not, that has the intangibles that Nassib lacks.

Nassib has had ups and downs for sure. But I don't see him regressing to the point where he's replaced by an underclassman.

 

[Pyle]

Given that, a linear projected improvement isn't much of a stretch.

I think that's a huge stretch. Linear progression is not realistic for anyone. It's entirely possible he regresses without Bailey and Provo.

 

[orangenauburn]

Nassib has had ups and downs for sure. But I don't see him regressing to the point where he's replaced by an underclassman.

agreed

and he will hit on a couple of those deep balls next year which will change perception and numbers in his favor.

Imagine if he had hit on just three deep balls this year - you are looking at 2 or 3 more TD passes, almost 200 more yards, and a lot less pressure from the fans clamoring for the next best thing

I would love to see Broyld come in and be the next Cam Newton -- but realistically he needs a year, and by then Hunt could be 'the' guy and Broyld moved to a different position.

 

[orangenauburn]

I think that's a huge stretch. Linear progression is not realistic for anyone. It's entirely possible he regresses without Bailey and Provo.

Provo (the security blanket) is going to be the biggest loss unless Wales improves ten fold or Huggie Bear steps in ready to go from day one.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

I think that's a huge stretch. Linear progression is not realistic for anyone. It's entirely possible he regresses without Bailey and Provo.

Or he gets better with Alec Lemon (who has always been improving), a year older Jarrod West, and a return to a power-finesse backfield that worked really well before Bailey became the featured back.

 

[Millhouse]

Going off the premise that Nassib will be our starter for all of next season so please take any personal vendetta elsewhere.

For all his consitancy issues Nassib did improve statistically last year vs what was decidedly a tougher schedule and with one less weapon at WR. Given that, a linear projected improvement isn't much of a stretch.

Season : 2010 -----> 2011 -----> 2012 projected
Comp%: 56.4 ----> 62.4 -----> 69
Yards : 2334 ----> 2685 -----> 3088
TD : 19 ----> 22 -----> 25
INT : 8 ----> 9 -----> 10
Comp : 202 ----> 259
Att : 358 ----> 415

If Nassib has identical progression he will on pace to complete 69% for over 3000 yards with 25 TD's and 10 int's. On paper that looks like a pretty good season but will that be enough to silence the naysayers? It would be nice to have him put up huge numbers but personally I'd like to see improved production (262 completions vs 380 attempts = 69%) on fewer attempts since more attempts will mean the running game isn't much of a weapon once again.

IMHO if he shows somewhere close to linear improvement and the running game can get back to at least 2010 production (1822 yards 4.1 YPC 13 TDs vs 1445 yards 3.6 YPC 10 TDs) our offense should look competent finally. If we can get 3000+ yards w/ 25 TDs from Nassib and 2000+ yards w/ 20 TDs from the running game we should very much be in the running to win the conference since the defense should improve.

So 69% / 3000 yards / 25 TD's / 10 int's is a somewhat logical progression for Nassib. I'm looking for him to acheive this with 262 completions on 380 attempts.

As a fan what do you expect he'll acheive? What do you hope he'll acheive? any reasoning for it?

do you expect a linear increase in passing attempts to 472 attempts? 39 attempts a game? (would've been 19th in the country assuming he takes every snap)

if you keep attempts fixed, that's a full yard per attempt better. that's still just about average overall , but that's a pretty big improvement.
Conference games rating
117->105->118

i'll be generous, give less weight to 2010 and say he'll be around a 120 rating in conference play
which puts you at about 80th in the country in conference games.

 

[ImperialOrange]

do you expect a linear increase in passing attempts to 472 attempts? 39 attempts a game? (would've been 19th in the country assuming he takes every snap)

if you keep attempts fixed, that's a full yard per attempt better. that's still just about average overall , but that's a pretty big improvement.quote]

Hard to keep that linear if you're projecting an increase in completion % as well so thus I didn't try and project that. Linear attempts would be ~16% increase or 482 attempts.

IF he hits a few more deep passes he would need less overall attempts to drive down the field and his YPA would rise as a result. It's been 6.5 YPA the past 2 years so it wouldn't take many deeper completions to make that just jump fairly dramatically.

 

[Millhouse]

after this amount of time i don't think deep passing issues are just luck

i don't think the coaches do either, considering they stopped calling them

 

[OttoForLife]

Great example of one of the many reasons I love sports. Numbers sometimes be absolutely nothing. Case in point, Nassib looks pretty good on paper. However, if you watch the majority of his play, you can see he is very inconsistent, at best.

I wouldn't be surprised if he put up good numbers next year, too, but the ONLY number that matters is the one in the W column.

 

[orangepassion]

I'll say what I always say about Nassib-It depends on the OL. He's generally good when the line is good and bad when the line is bad. I know it sounds very simplistic, but it is what it is.

 

[ImperialOrange]

after this amount of time i don't think deep passing issues are just luck

i don't think the coaches do either, considering they stopped calling them

Right but he looked adequate the year prior throwing deep in NYC when he had time and Marcus Sales.

 

[44PRIDE]

2011 was supposed to be Nassib's "NO EXCUSES" year.

He had a good receiving corps (even without Sales), an experienced offensive line and a serviceable running game. Even with all that, he still could not lead the team to 6 wins. I don't see the moving parts around him getting better in 2012 and don't think he's capable of carrying a sub-par team to victory.

I went all in with Ryan last year, but won't do it again. My prediction is that Ryan gets the hook around game 5 or 6.

 

[Millhouse]

Right but he looked adequate the year prior throwing deep in NYC when he had time and Marcus Sales.

cherry picking. look at everything.

 

[Chip]

Right but he looked adequate the year prior throwing deep in NYC when he had time and Marcus Sales.

Even I gave up on that one. It was one pass.

He had open guys deep this year and overthrew them every.single.time. If his #'s are going to improve, and if our scoring is going to improve, he needs to get better at it. I understand that it's low % and nobody is perfect at these passes (other than RG III who has a 140% comp % on passes over 50 yards in the air). But Nassib has to hit some, or next year's offense won't be very good.

As for supporting cast, hopefully the WR that caught that one bomb in NYC will be back to help. Would more than make up for the loss of Van Chew, and might (along with Wales/Stevens stepping up) make up for the loss of Provo. Still need the OL to improve, and a RB with little experience to play like one with a lot of experience..and talent.

 

[ImperialOrange]

cherry picking. look at everything.

I've seen everything thus far same as you from his 2 seasons at QB. From impressive to down right insulting to watch at times.

Point with that moment being that he is capable of making the throw. Why he didn't last year? Wish I knew.

Optimist in me says he figures it out and plays well next year. Pessimist in me says he doesn't and get's shelled by conference play. Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle but it's not like he's been complete rubbish every game. If he finds a bit of consistancy towards the good then we'll all be better off.

 

[Millhouse]

I've seen everything thus far same as you from his 2 seasons at QB. From impressive to down right insulting to watch at times.

Point with that moment being that he is capable of making the throw. Why he didn't last year? Wish I knew.

Optimist in me says he figures it out and plays well next year. Pessimist in me says he doesn't and get's shelled by conference play. Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle but it's not like he's been complete rubbish every game. If he finds a bit of consistancy towards the good then we'll all be better off.

capable of making one throw is setting the bar way too low. could say that about most high school qbs

at this point we don't need to cherry pick so much. he's thrown over 800 passes. i'm not arguing he's physically incapable of ever completing a deep pass. i just think he's bad at it.

 

[xc84]

capable of making one throw is setting the bar way too low. could say that about most high school qbs

at this point we don't need to cherry pick so much. he's thrown over 800 passes. i'm not arguing he's physically incapable of ever completing a deep pass. i just think he's bad at it.

I think physically he has the tools. He has the arm strength and has the legs to run. He does not seem to have the touch needed for the long ball but he could learn that this year. My main concern is that his reaction time is slow. I think that negative will create a battle for the starting spot this spring. I think if another QB has good skills but shows more QB instincts than Nassib does, that QB will win the job. I like Nassib and I'd hate to see a kid demoted but Marrone has to play the guy who will produce the most Ws.

 

[ImperialOrange]

capable of making one throw is setting the bar way too low. could say that about most high school qbs

at this point we don't need to cherry pick so much. he's thrown over 800 passes. i'm not arguing he's physically incapable of ever completing a deep pass. i just think he's bad at it.

Could be. I still think it's mental and therefore fixable. We'll know soon enough next year. Funny thing about it is he was brought in to throw the deep passes that Paulus couldn't. Strange how things have changed.

It'd be nice to call more than 1 deep pass a game, not sure how many of those 800 throws have been 20+ yard attempts.

 

[realcusefan888]

Going off the premise that Nassib will be our starter for all of next season so please take any personal vendetta elsewhere.

For all his consitancy issues Nassib did improve statistically last year vs what was decidedly a tougher schedule and with one less weapon at WR. Given that, a linear projected improvement isn't much of a stretch.

Season : 2010 -----> 2011 -----> 2012 projected
Comp%: 56.4 ----> 62.4 -----> 69
Yards : 2334 ----> 2685 -----> 3088
TD : 19 ----> 22 -----> 25
INT : 8 ----> 9 -----> 10
Comp : 202 ----> 259
Att : 358 ----> 415

If Nassib has identical progression he will on pace to complete 69% for over 3000 yards with 25 TD's and 10 int's. On paper that looks like a pretty good season but will that be enough to silence the naysayers? It would be nice to have him put up huge numbers but personally I'd like to see improved production (262 completions vs 380 attempts = 69%) on fewer attempts since more attempts will mean the running game isn't much of a weapon once again.

IMHO if he shows somewhere close to linear improvement and the running game can get back to at least 2010 production (1822 yards 4.1 YPC 13 TDs vs 1445 yards 3.6 YPC 10 TDs) our offense should look competent finally. If we can get 3000+ yards w/ 25 TDs from Nassib and 2000+ yards w/ 20 TDs from the running game we should very much be in the running to win the conference since the defense should improve.

So 69% / 3000 yards / 25 TD's / 10 int's is a somewhat logical progression for Nassib. I'm looking for him to acheive this with 262 completions on 380 attempts.

As a fan what do you expect he'll acheive? What do you hope he'll acheive? any reasoning for it?

not interested in these calculations. i want there to be a true open competition for qb in the spring but that will never happen given the subjective nature of the coaches knowing nassib has had 2 years of gametime. we need to start looking to the future and if the coaches didnt let ryan open it up and play to win this year, then lets see bryold and/or hunt. i am not interested in his numbers because he is mechanical and goes down with a hint of pressure. he is coached to not throw a pick as most kids are but at su we take it to a whole new level! thus, the ducking and going down with a collapsing pocket and the overthrows by 10 yards if a reciever is not glarringly open. he has the arm to try and stick some throws in there but that doesnt happen. most throws are 5-7 yard outs to lemon or provo in the flat so completion % isnt of interest either.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

i want there to be a true open competition for qb in the spring but that will never happen given the subjective nature of the coaches knowing nassib has had 2 years of gametime.

Why would they open up the starting job after 3 years of sticking with Nassib? A True Freshman, a RS Freshman, and a RS Sophomore from a weak football state aren't going to unseat a guy who hasn't been half bad for two full seasons.