what marrone giveth, ryan taketh away

[Millhouse]

You will lose this argument. CFB/NFL is slow to embrace a lot of smart math stuff. The NBA and MLB have already gone through their transformations due to hiring guys smarter than coaches to assist them with player evaluation and strategy.

Try the google.

he lost it ten years ago

this year would've been so much worse if babers didn't go for it so much. the yards per play margin was a lot worse than 2015 and the yards per game margin was a lot better. it's because he attempted and converted more 4th downs than our opponents. it's not hard, you don't need to be fat to understand this, you don't need to have endured a thousand okie drills.

 

[Millhouse]

I think most of the stuff that people complain about with regard to Whaley can be said for 50% of GM's. I agree he's been hit and miss on a lot but I don't agree with blowing the whole thing up. Rex or Whaley had to go, ( obviously the pegulas respevted his opinion more than Rex) IMO Whaley gets next year or 2 and Lynn will get 3 years at least as It looks a lot like will be hired and that is why they fired Rex yesterday. They also get Lynn cheaper hire they pay Rex off too. No more over paid retreads

Not ideal but What is with the Bills.

someone at the buffalo news put together a list of all the people the pegulas are still paying

leino ruff marrone lafontaine black ehrhoff ruff regier ryan nolan rolston

they're a bottomless pitt of money

whaley is a good pro player personnel guy, that's where he came from, that's where he's done well. no shame in doing that job.

 

[OrangePA]

someone at the buffalo news put together a list of all the people the pegulas are still paying

leino ruff marrone lafontaine black ehrhoff ruff regier ryan nolan rolston

they're a bottomless pitt of money

whaley is a good pro player personnel guy, that's where he came from, that's where he's done well. no shame in doing that job.

Doesn't that list tell you something?

About ownership??

 

[OrangePA]

actual football professionals usually aren't as smart as paul romer or else they wouldn't get into a field where you work so hard with so little chance of success.
actual football professionals usually have some form of brain damage from hard earned experience playing the stupid sport they coach
actual football professionals usually outsource many things that they are not knowledgeable about. nutrition, medicine, training.

none of this is millhouse ball. it's all been solved. we know how much possession of the ball at each yard line is worth from a million games. it's easy to back into the odds to make going for it worthwhile. they all have charts that someone else wrote. make the charts better using up to date information.

Billy Beane was very effective with sabermetrics when he had a great pitching staff.

I like data but I tend to see baseball as a better backdrop for analytic application.

I don't think guys like Andy Reid are stupid.

Chip Kelly proved a lot of things while in Philly. And I'm still smarting from those lessons.

 

[TheCusian]

Billy Beane was very effective with sabermetrics when he had a great pitching staff.

I like data but I tend to see baseball as a better backdrop for analytic application.

I don't think guys like Andy Reid are stupid.

Chip Kelly proved a lot of things while in Philly. And I'm still smarting from those lessons.

It's not that Billy Bean was marginally effective - it's that everyone else caught on. Same thing is happening in the NBA right now. Eventually, NFL teams and CFB teams will hire guys to gain this same insight. The reason they don't yet is what Millhouse said: too many hits to the head. And a strong reliance on meathead orthodoxy.

 

[Millhouse]

Doesn't that list tell you something?

About ownership??

of course, the pegulas have no idea what they were doing. they've done good things in buffalo and they're generous so i'm hoping they sort it out. but they're definitely clueless. at least on the hockey side, murray and bylsma are decent. it took a couple years for them to get that right, hopefully the bills follow.

the pegulas are spread very thin (natural gas, recording studios, tennis, football, basketball) and they're making a big mistake leaning on brandon who is an empty suit

 

[djcon57]

actual football professionals usually aren't as smart as paul romer or else they wouldn't get into a field where you work so hard with so little chance of success.
actual football professionals usually have some form of brain damage from hard earned experience playing the stupid sport they coach
actual football professionals usually outsource many things that they are not knowledgeable about. nutrition, medicine, training.

none of this is millhouse ball. it's all been solved. we know how much possession of the ball at each yard line is worth from a million games. it's easy to back into the odds to make going for it worthwhile. they all have charts that someone else wrote. make the charts better using up to date information.

This argument = the dude who plays blackjack w/o using the textbook proven statistical arguments for staying, doubling, or hitting.

One day someone will grow the sack to do what the math suggests and that person will win because the odds will be in his favor.

 

[OrangePA]

- SS and Dino Babers would have had 8 wins with that schedule.

- for an offensive guru, it took him 3.5 years to find a pulse on offense; he did hire Shafer, so that's a plus.

- 2012 should have been better. But they forgot to run the ball until midway through the season.

If your definition of "great" is taking a bad football team to mediocre (with a good end to year 4) with roughly the same level of recruiting - then yeah - he did a great job.

I reserve great for prolonged success, reproducible results, and a P5 conference championship.

It's pretty difficult to try to compare schedules looking backward the way you presume to do so.

And, while I like Dino a lot, it was tough to watch opposing offenses move the ball and score at record paces against our defense. And we know what Scott Shafer did as a follow up to Marrone.

I guess where you and I differ is that I don't consider eight wins and a bowl game "mediocre" - especially after a four-year disaster - unless I'm Alabama or Ohio State - and the Orange will never be Alabama or Ohio State.

I don't recall the specifics about Marrone's play calling in 2010 - not enough running calls. What I recall was a team with depth issues and mounting injuries having difficulty finishing the season.

So, while under your criteria Coach Pasqualoni was undoubtedly great - with a P5 Championship his final season to boot - for the limited time he was on the Hill, Doug Marrone was great.

 

[Millhouse]

Billy Beane was very effective with sabermetrics when he had a great pitching staff.

I like data but I tend to see baseball as a better backdrop for analytic application.

I don't think guys like Andy Reid are stupid.

Chip Kelly proved a lot of things while in Philly. And I'm still smarting from those lessons.

baseball is harder to measure than football in many ways. this punting stuff is way easier to solve than figuring out defensive positioning, bullpen usage, bunting

 

[OrangePA]

of course, the pegulas have no idea what they were doing. they've done good things in buffalo and they're generous so i'm hoping they sort it out. but they're definitely clueless. at least on the hockey side, murray and bylsma are decent. it took a couple years for them to get that right, hopefully the bills follow.

the pegulas are spread very thin (natural gas, recording studios, tennis, football, basketball) and they're making a big mistake leaning on brandon who is an empty suit

Good post.

 

[OrangePA]

This argument = the dude who plays blackjack w/o using the textbook proven statistical arguments for staying, doubling, or hitting.

One day someone will grow the sack to do what the math suggests and that person will win because the odds will be in his favor.

So, football is like gambling?

Wow.

I play a decent amount of blackjack and I try my best to follow the statistical rules - I have the card with me at all times.

I just can't compare what I do to what Andy Reid or Bill Belichick do.

 

[OrangePA]

of course, the pegulas have no idea what they were doing. they've done good things in buffalo and they're generous so i'm hoping they sort it out. but they're definitely clueless. at least on the hockey side, murray and bylsma are decent. it took a couple years for them to get that right, hopefully the bills follow.

the pegulas are spread very thin (natural gas, recording studios, tennis, football, basketball) and they're making a big mistake leaning on brandon who is an empty suit

Can you know understand why Marrone was so hesitant to work for the Pegulas - why he took Parcells' advice?

 

[djcon57]

So, football is like gambling?

Wow.

I play a decent amount of blackjack and I try my best to follow the statistical rules - I have the card with me at all times.

I just can't compare what I do to what Andy Reid or Bill Belichick do.

Yes, 4th down is very much like gambling. Wow...that you don't understand that

 

[Millhouse]

Can you know understand why Marrone was so hesitant to work for the Pegulas - why he took Parcells' advice?

Parcells isn't the best person to take advice from considering that everyone wanted to hire Parcells .

Good coaches who don't really care either way give lots of advice. We took pete carroll's advice. that bad advice doesn't hurt him.

"the owner died, I'm outta here!" come on. don't take the job for a 120 year old guy who can't leave his house any more if parcells advice means so much

Marrone got bad advice from his agent, I bet. some guy with lots of clients who is still getting paid for getting him the buffalo job wanted to roll the dice on him getting another job.

i just don't believe he would've left to be an assistant for the jags. it's not like khan is some great owner.

 

[Millhouse]

Yes, 4th down is very much like gambling. Wow...that you don't understand that

punting hoping you'll get a three and out is a gamble. everything the coach does on game day is about odds

 

[OrangePA]

Parcells isn't the best person to take advice from considering that everyone wanted to hire Parcells .

Good coaches who don't really care either way give lots of advice. We took pete carroll's advice. that bad advice doesn't hurt him.

"the owner died, I'm outta here!" come on. don't take the job for a 120 year old guy who can't leave his house any more if parcells advice means so much

Marrone got bad advice from his agent, I bet. some guy with lots of clients who is still getting paid for getting him the buffalo job wanted to roll the dice on him getting another job.

i just don't believe he would've left to be an assistant for the jags. it's not like khan is some great owner.

I guess that's where you and I differ.

I would take advice from Bill Parcells on HC issues every day of the week.

There might not have been a smarter football man in the history of the game. And if a new owner like Kraft - who had no football ownership experience - could try to micromanage a guy like Parcells, one could only imagine what a micromanaging new owner would try to do to a relatively new HC such as Doug Marrone.

I don't know enough about Pete Carroll to comment on his "advice." I know that he is best friends with Greg Robinson. I know that Dr. Gross was forced to make a hire very late in the game. I know that Robinson/Gross/Cantor had a very tough act to follow and knew very little about what they had inherited - clearly Robinson had no idea. I just can't compare the kind of "advice" you're referencing to the kind of first-hand advice that I believe Parcells imparted to Marrone.

And the advice that was given - "don't work for an owner who did not hire you" - is very good advice and maybe worth the Assistant HC position in Jacksonville.

Your recitation of how Pegula has micromanaged both the Bills and Sabres supports Marrone's decision. You want to work for an owner who believes in stability and who gives his coaches time to develop their program.

You want to work for the Rooneys or the Maras. You don't want to work for an unknown quantity that had nothing to do with your hiring in the first place.

 

[OrangePA]

I guess maybe you and I are using the term "gambling" differently.

Strictly speaking it is "gambling" every time a team takes the field. It is "gambling" every time a team makes an offensive call. Obviously, nothing is preordained in a football game.

But that's not what I am referencing.

If you're Syracuse University, is going for it on 4th and 2 against UConn the equivalent of going for it on 4th and 2 against Alabama?

Are the same odds in play?

Just as the same odds are in play when you show a 16 and the dealer shows a 10 at Paris or Bellagio or the Valley Forge Casino? Or do you stand while at Paris and hit while at Bellagio??

In my opinion the same odds are not in play.

I just see a far greater number of variables in football analysis than I do in blackjack analysis or craps analysis. That is because no matter where you play blackjack - using the same number of decks and house rules - the odds/math is the same.

That is not the case when it comes to football games in my opinion - the math change depending upon any number of variables.

So, for me, the analogy between blackjack and football is a tough one to make.

 

[Millhouse]

I guess that's where you and I differ.

I would take advice from Bill Parcells on HC issues every day of the week.

There might not have been a smarter football man in the history of the game. And if a new owner like Kraft - who had no football ownership experience - could try to micromanage a guy like Parcells, one could only imagine what a micromanaging new owner would try to do to a relatively new HC such as Doug Marrone.

I don't know enough about Pete Carroll to comment on his "advice." I know that he is best friends with Greg Robinson. I know that Dr. Gross was forced to make a hire very late in the game. I know that Robinson/Gross/Cantor had a very tough act to follow and knew very little about what they had inherited - clearly Robinson had no idea. I just can't compare the kind of "advice" you're referencing to the kind of first-hand advice that I believe Parcells imparted to Marrone.

And the advice that was given - "don't work for an owner who did not hire you" - is very good advice and maybe worth the Assistant HC position in Jacksonville.

Your recitation of how Pegula has micromanaged both the Bills and Sabres supports Marrone's decision. You want to work for an owner who believes in stability and who gives his coaches time to develop their program.

You want to work for the Rooneys or the Maras. You don't want to work for an unknown quantity that had nothing to do with your hiring in the first place.

Marrone doesn't work for the rooneys or maras. he's an interim for khan who's interviewing other people. That was why it was such a bad decision. He's not Parcells. He's ordinary as NFL coaches go.

If he didn't want to be a head coach at all, fine. But that has nothing do with "never work for an owner who didn't hire you". easy for parcells to say when every other owner would hire him

 

[Millhouse]

So, if you're Syracuse University, going for it on 4th and 2 against UConn is the equivalent of going for it on 4th and 2 against Alabama?

The same odds are in play?

Just as the same odds are in play when you show a 16 and the dealer shows a 10 at Paris or Bellagio or the Valley Forge Casino?

I just see a far greater number of variables in football analysis than I do in blackjack analysis or craps analysis. That is because no matter where you play blackjack - using the same number of decks and house rules - the odds do not change.

That is not the case when it comes to football games in my opinion - the odds change depending upon personnel, injuries, weather conditions, and many other variables.

the charts can tell you the breakeven probabilities and then you can use that precious brain injury experience to determine whether you have those odds of success.

and you should also consider the odds of what alabama's offense will do to you when they have the ball. but there is an inverse relationship between thinking about that and belt size

most of the dumbest punting decisions reveal that either the coach doesn't think about probabilities or that he thinks his offense has a completely unreasonably low chance of success.

baseball teams face different competition and you said before that the numbers work in that sport.

 

[OrangePA]

Marrone doesn't work for the rooneys or maras. That was why it was such a bad decision. He's not Parcells. He's ordinary as NFL coaches go.

If he didn't want to be a head coach at all, fine. But that has nothing do with "never work for an owner who didn't hire you". easy for parcells to say when every other owner would hire him

No, because he wasn't working for the Rooneys or the Maras it was a good decision.

It may be that working for Pegula or somebody who did not hire you is a far more frustrating experience than working as Assistant HC at Jacksonville for a HC that you know and like.

That you would presume to know more than Marrone in that regard is I think dubious even for a purported genius such as yourself.

On this one, I have to go with Marrone's math since I don't think you have the data to perform the calculation.

 

[djcon57]

If you're Syracuse University, is going for it on 4th and 2 against UConn the equivalent of going for it on 4th and 2 against Alabama?

Are the same odds in play?

Yes, they are, because the math behind the odds have games the equivalent Syracuse vs UConn and Syracuse vs Alabama already included in the equation.

 

[OrangePA]

the charts can tell you the breakeven probabilities and then you can use that precious brain injury experience to determine whether you have those odds of success.

and you should also consider the odds of what alabama's offense will do to you when they have the ball. but there is an inverse relationship between thinking about that and belt size

most of the dumbest punting decisions reveal that either the coach doesn't think about probabilities or that he thinks his offense has a completely unreasonably low chance of success.

baseball teams face different competition and you said before that the numbers work in that sport.

So, you take different action against Alabama than against UConn?

It sounds to me Millhouse like you're getting dangerously close to making a traditional personnel assessment.

And we can't have that can we?

 

[OrangePA]

Yes, they are, because the math behind the odds have games the equivalent Syracuse vs UConn and Syracuse vs Alabama already included in the equation.

Oh, so we take into consideration talent?

Or we take into consideration the health of the players on both sides?

Or we take into consideration field conditions?

But that's not math.

That's just traditional football analysis. So, for me the kind of assessment that you feel is appropriate is nothing new. It's been done for years.

 

[djcon57]

Oh, so we take into consideration talent?

Or we take into consideration the health of the players on both sides?

Or we take into consideration field conditions?

But that's not math.

That's just traditional football analysis. So, for me the kind of assessment that you feel is appropriate is nothing new. It's been done for years.

I'm not sure where you are having a problem understanding this. Talent, Health, Field Conditions are all part of the data set used to calculate the the probabilities.

So if after the data is calculated, the odds suggest I should not be punting from the 37 yard line, then all of those factors have already been considered.

 

[Millhouse]

No, because he wasn't working for the Rooneys or the Maras it was a good decision.

It may be that working for Pegula or somebody who did not hire you is a far more frustrating experience than working as Assistant HC at Jacksonville for a HC that you know and like.

That you would presume to know more than Marrone in that regard is I think dubious even for a purported genius such as yourself.

On this one, I have to go with Marrone's math since I don't think you have the data to perform the calculation.

I don't mean to get all mathy on you but there are lots of coaches working for people not named Rooney or mara.
Including marrone before and marrone after.

He thought he was more sought after than he was. Probably because the only people around him are sycophants or people with really bad incentives like an agent