Where do we want to be sitting when the music stops?

[CousCuse]

Will the new semi-pro league have rules against programs requiring players to be class taking students? There will still be a lot of players who want to play at that level and are capable of playing at that level who want to get a college degree. If that's the case, it really won't be much different than it is now. In fact, if schools like Syracuse and Notre Dame were to play at that level it might be a recruiting advantage for them, especially Syracuse, as they would be competing against fewer programs for those types of players.

 

[Hoo's That]

If the teams in the ACC that want to play big time college football are making 50 million dollars+ less than teams in the B1G and the SEC, they will leave if they have a chance to. The GOR won't stop them as they can break even in a couple of years. Syracuse is in a unique position in this because of their history and position of being the only program in New York/New England that would be considered to play in the P2. They can go either way.

Nope. The GOR means that all the money they make goes to the conference for the duration of the contract. For the ACC means 2036. They can never "break even in a couple of years" because their money goes into the ACC pot and is divided up and they only get a share of it. To make the math easy, if a team got $15 million a year more for playing in another conference, they would only get $1 million of it under the GOR ($1 million to each remaining school and $1 million to conference HQ) until 2036.

 

[baggerbob]

Based on current (and projected) media deals for the Big 10 and SEC, I don’t think a super conference format will be able to happen for at least a decade. It will be interesting what happens with the PAC 12 and Big 12 media deals as they will signal if the P5 will be viable long term. The real question for the ACC is can the traditional ACC football powers, Clemson and Florida State, remain competitive with their SEC rivals given the large financial disadvantage. If they can keep ACC football relevant, the ACC should be able to hold together through the GORs.

The Big 10 May be asking for a large sum of money, but with not knowing what might happen within the next couple of years.
The network's aren't going to get locked in to a long contract for a large amount of money.
Until all the legal challenges have been eliminated expect the networks to give less money and a shorter contract to all the conferences.

 

[All4SU]

Will the new semi-pro league have rules against programs requiring players to be class taking students? There will still be a lot of players who want to play at that level and are capable of playing at that level who want to get a college degree. If that's the case, it really won't be much different than it is now. In fact, if schools like Syracuse and Notre Dame were to play at that level it might be a recruiting advantage for them, especially Syracuse, as they would be competing against fewer programs for those types of players.

It’s almost like you’ve never met any people.

 

[CousCuse]

Nope. The GOR means that all the money they make goes to the conference for the duration of the contract. For the ACC means 2036. They can never "break even in a couple of years" because their money goes into the ACC pot and is divided up and they only get a share of it. To make the math easy, if a team got $15 million a year more for playing in another conference, they would only get $1 million of it under the GOR ($1 million to each school and $1 million to conference HQ) until 2036.

In the case of the Big12, the conference wants Texas and Oklahoma to pay a buyout to end their GOR. Wouldn't they be better off to let them go as fast as possible and get their SEC money? I don't know anything about GOR contracts, so this is just speculation, but it appears that the GOR is tied to the teams duration and value in the conference it was signed with. Also, teams could argue that they are being put in a non competitive position due to the league's inability to stay at par with the competition.

 

[CousCuse]

It’s almost like you’ve never met any people.

Look, some purists and alumni would not be happy with players getting paid. The vast fan base doesn't care as long as the team wins.

 

[All4SU]

Look, some purists and alumni would not be happy with players getting paid. The vast fan base doesn't care as long as the team wins.

I get it. I’m just saying that using an education as addition incentive once you’ve started paying players will not be incentive for 95% of these kids. We’ve already devalued the education so much as to make it almost irrelevant now. It’s a horrible business for universities to be in.

 

[Hoo's That]

In the case of the Big12, the conference wants Texas and Oklahoma to pay a buyout to end their GOR. Wouldn't they be better off to let them go as fast as possible and get their SEC money? I don't know anything about GOR contracts, so this is just speculation, but it appears that the GOR is tied to the teams duration and value in the conference it was signed with. Also, teams could argue that they are being put in a non competitive position due to the league's inability to stay at par with the competition.

GORs were designed to keep teams in their conferences by requiring them to surrender any money they got from TV to the conference. Yes, the Big XII decided to negotiate a buyout for Texas and Oklahoma so they didn't turn into the Big XIV until the current GOR ends, but they didn't have to do that. The GOR, like any contract, can be ended by mutual consent. But if one party doesn't give its consent the contract remains in full force, and you can bet on conferences wanting the money from teams that go semi-pro..

 

[CousCuse]

I get it. I’m just saying that using an education as addition incentive once you’ve started paying players will not be incentive for 95% of these kids. We’ve already devalued the education so much as to make it almost irrelevant now. It’s a horrible business for universities to be in.

It's a very unique situation where over time colleges have ended up owning very valuable semipro franchises. It's a gamble to say that fans will support Syracuse football if they don't compete at the highest level or at least attempt to compete at that level as is the current situation. It's a lot to consider for the decision makers. Hoo states that the GOR can't be broken so the ACC would have to decide as a whole what they want to do. If they can't get a consensus, it will be very decisive for the conference.

 

[CousCuse]

GORs were designed to keep teams in their conferences by requiring them to surrender any money they got from TV to the conference. Yes, the Big XII decided to negotiate a buyout for Texas and Oklahoma so they didn't turn into the Big XIV until the current GOR ends, but they didn't have to do that. The GOR, like any contract, can be ended by mutual consent. But if one party doesn't give its consent the contract remains in full force, and you can bet on conferences wanting the money from teams that go semi-pro..

It's going to be a hay day for big law firms.

 

[JimBoston]

The Big 10 May be asking for a large sum of money, but with not knowing what might happen within the next couple of years.
The network's aren't going to get locked in to a long contract for a large amount of money.
Until all the legal challenges have been eliminated expect the networks to give less money and a shorter contract to all the conferences.

The SEC is signed through 2034 for big dollars so I think the Big 10 will be signed for the long term as well when the deal is announced in the next month (I would assume 8 years+). The ACC is signed through 2036, the AAC through 2032, MWC through 2026, the CFP through 2026, and ND through 2025. The Pac 12 (2024) and Big 12 (2025) are the next P5 conferences to negotiate deals. Who knows what the Big 12 will get with the departures of Texas and Oklahoma.

Based on the length of the current P5 conference contracts, I don't expect a super league could happen in the next 10 years.

 

[All4SU]

It's a very unique situation where over time colleges have ended up owning very valuable semipro franchises. It's a gamble to say that fans will support Syracuse football if they don't compete at the highest level or at least attempt to compete at that level as is the current situation. It's a lot to consider for the decision makers. Hoo states that the GOR can't be broken so the ACC would have to decide as a whole what they want to do. If they can't get a consensus, it will be very decisive for the conference.

My vote doesn’t count. But for me, as a COLLEGE FOOTBALL fan, and an alumnus of Syracuse University, I would rather support an athletics program that competes against Army, Navy, BC, etc. with student athletes who have earned athletic scholarships to attend SU as student-athletes, than a semi-pro organization who wears orange and don’t go to classes and are paid employees. I’m not supporting that.

I’ll rake leaves. I’ll sit by my pool. I’ll read. I’ll find something else to do.

 

[Cuse'91]

The SEC is signed through 2034 for big dollars so I think the Big 10 will be signed for the long term as well when the deal is announced in the next month (I would assume 8 years+). The ACC is signed through 2036, the AAC through 2032, MWC through 2026, the CFP through 2026, and ND through 2025. The Pac 12 (2024) and Big 12 (2025) are the next P5 conferences to negotiate deals. Who knows what the Big 12 will get with the departures of Texas and Oklahoma.

Based on the length of the current P5 conference contracts, I don't expect a super league could happen in the next 10 years.

If the Pac12 is up in a couple of years; would love to see B1G expand west, and take the Colorado Buffalos. That would relieve some stress about a raid on multiple ACC fronts.

 

[CousCuse]

My vote doesn’t count. But for me, as a COLLEGE FOOTBALL fan, and an alumnus of Syracuse University, I would rather support an athletics program that competes against Army, Navy, BC, etc. with student athletes who have earned athletic scholarships to attend SU as student-athletes, than a semi-pro organization who wears orange and don’t go to classes and are paid employees. I’m not supporting that.

I’ll rake leaves. I’ll sit by my pool. I’ll read. I’ll find something else to do.

I would watch them regardless of their level of competition. Much of the casual fans might not support them in a glorified FCS.

 

[Boggs59]

ND was/is willing to leave lots of dollars on the table to be a football independent.

They think that it is worth it to the school to do so, for football and non-sports reasons.

It considers that lost money as simply the cost of doing business as a football independent.

But, having to surrender independence AND having to drop down to a Tier 2 level conference paying $40-50 million a year less than the P2 conferences?

I don't think that will happen. That makes little business sense.

(I think that the Supreme Court will rule in the near future that athletes are direct school employees. That will mean, in either model, the schools, even "academic model" ones, will be required to do "pay for play" or quit sponsoring sports)

Its possible that ND may try to stay a football independent AND be in an "academic mission" model, paying the players directly but trying to tie playing to academic standing.

(I am not sure that this will be legal if all "academic model" schools act in concert to impose this limitation on earnings. That may also be deemed an anti-trust violation)

But, I have little doubt the ND administration will strongly consider this.

There has been a conflict between academics and football for decades. The administration has often "embarrassed" by football overshadowing academics at ND.

ND has self-imposed limits on football and run off successful coaches in the past (Leahy, Ara, Holtz). It is pretty well documented.

But, I agree with Boggs that the big donors, alumni and fan base will massively revolt at the idea and ND will end up in the top level of football, in a Tier 1 conference, most likely the expanded Big Ten (yuck).

I came to that conclusion shortly after reading the Alston opinion.

It will be interesting to see how all of this shakes out.

ND would never drop down...will pay players first. Too much pressure from boosters, alumni, subway alumni...you can't fight City Hall.

Now, I expect ND...like many schools...will try to stop this current insane NIL process...get this new system regulated. We will see if this works..stop this crazy fake NIL...this is a slush fund for boosters, nothing more...I really don't know if it can be stopped. I hope most programs band together to set up new rules...but it only takes a Texas A & M.. Miami and USC...just a few major outliers.. to mess things all up

Already you have the two Texas schools, Miami and USC jumping into this pay to play head first...I'll predict Tennessee and Florida soon follow...once you got 10, 12, 15 schools involved...how do you get things under control then? Not sure you can...then it is survival of fittest

 

[All4SU]

I would watch them regardless of their level of competition. Much of the casual fans might not support them in a glorified FCS.

I’m sure you’re right. We just don’t know how the split would go - e.g. who would be interested and who would not. Experience tells me most people disagree with me. That’s fine. I’m in the minority on lots of issues. That never bothers me. Doesn’t mean I’m not right.

 

[HtownOrange]

The NIL system "as is" will get blown up. Most kids cannot manage money at this age. Most will get a rude awakening from the IRS. Further, the scholarships are likely to be deemed income by the IRS. Let's be real, any kid receiving a scholarship is receiving services and goods for "work" and now with the NIL the nexus is too close to "pretend" there is no economic exchange.

Further, the concept that schools will pay significant money to maintain a semipro team is really not conceivable when most schools lose money on sports. Before you go crazy, yes, football makes money or breaks even at most schools but the problem is Title IX must be honored. If you separate football from all other sports, there is no money to operate the remaining sports. If you keep all of the other sports, few schools make money as it is, there is little to no money to pay the football (and possibly hoops) teams.

In am sure there is a balance but at the moment the system is unbalanced. In the end, blowing up CFB for a semipro league is less likely than the conferences working together as the pros do and creating a league that represents the country, not just two regions.

 

[sutomcat]

First, as others have noted, the end game probably won’t happen until 2033-2035. Lots of time between now and then for things to settle down and hopefully for a group of schools to form that want to field top notch athletic programs featuring real student athletes. No pro franchises.

I am good seeing the schools that are so desperate to win that they are willing to pay the free agents they sign obscene amounts of money. Don’t care if those schools bother to pretend their players are students or not. I am not a pro football guy. Good luck to these schools and I hope the kids they sign make a lot of money. I won’t ever watch them play, even if they play Syracuse in exhibition or OOC games.

I believe most schools in the Northeast and most in the ACC will align with schools like Syracuse, BC and Pitt and a very good all sports league will form. It will probably make a lot more sense geographically and I suspect the scheduling will also be done a lot more intelligently. I believe there are networks that will value this level of play and the schools involved will make enough money to host very good athletic facilities. I believe there are many future student athletes who will value having the opportunity to attend these kinds of institutions and the quality of play will be very good in all sports.

Similar leagues will form in other areas of the country.

The split will be good for the academic minded schools. The playing field for winning a football national championship will be dramatically leveled. Far more schools will have a chance to win and fan interest will be high. As will ratings.

A new organization will be formed to replace the NCAA and it will actually be run by competent people that have the best interests of the sports and the athletes in mind. We might even see schools like Maryland and West Virginia, and yes, even Rutgers part of the new league.

 

[Chip]

This stuff really used to worry me.

It's doesn't anymore.

Whatever happens happens.

 

[kcsu]

First, as others have noted, the end game probably won’t happen until 2033-2035. Lots of time between now and then for things to settle down and hopefully for a group of schools to form that want to field top notch athletic programs featuring real student athletes. No pro franchises.

I am good seeing the schools that are so desperate to win that they are willing to pay the free agents they sign obscene amounts of money. Don’t care if those schools bother to pretend their players are students or not. I am not a pro football guy. Good luck to these schools and I hope the kids they sign make a lot of money. I won’t ever watch them play, even if they play Syracuse in exhibition or OOC games.

I believe most schools in the Northeast and most in the ACC will align with schools like Syracuse, BC and Pitt and a very good all sports league will form. It will probably make a lot more sense geographically and I suspect the scheduling will also be done a lot more intelligently. I believe there are networks that will value this level of play and the schools involved will make enough money to host very good athletic facilities. I believe there are many future student athletes who will value having the opportunity to attend these kinds of institutions and the quality of play will be very good in all sports.

Similar leagues will form in other areas of the country.

The split will be good for the academic minded schools. The playing field for winning a football national championship will be dramatically leveled. Far more schools will have a chance to win and fan interest will be high. As will ratings.

A new organization will be formed to replace the NCAA and it will actually be run by competent people that have the best interests of the sports and the athletes in mind. We might even see schools like Maryland and West Virginia, and yes, even Rutgers part of the new league.

Great post Tom

 

[baggerbob]

First, as others have noted, the end game probably won’t happen until 2033-2035. Lots of time between now and then for things to settle down and hopefully for a group of schools to form that want to field top notch athletic programs featuring real student athletes. No pro franchises.

I am good seeing the schools that are so desperate to win that they are willing to pay the free agents they sign obscene amounts of money. Don’t care if those schools bother to pretend their players are students or not. I am not a pro football guy. Good luck to these schools and I hope the kids they sign make a lot of money. I won’t ever watch them play, even if they play Syracuse in exhibition or OOC games.

I believe most schools in the Northeast and most in the ACC will align with schools like Syracuse, BC and Pitt and a very good all sports league will form. It will probably make a lot more sense geographically and I suspect the scheduling will also be done a lot more intelligently. I believe there are networks that will value this level of play and the schools involved will make enough money to host very good athletic facilities. I believe there are many future student athletes who will value having the opportunity to attend these kinds of institutions and the quality of play will be very good in all sports.

Similar leagues will form in other areas of the country.

The split will be good for the academic minded schools. The playing field for winning a football national championship will be dramatically leveled. Far more schools will have a chance to win and fan interest will be high. As will ratings.

A new organization will be formed to replace the NCAA and it will actually be run by competent people that have the best interests of the sports and the athletes in mind. We might even see schools like Maryland and West Virginia, and yes, even Rutgers part of the new league.

Great post, but unfortunately there are a lot or unreasonable people supporting some of these schools.
But I'm sure Syracuse will be in the group that maintains some integrity.

 

[corpjet]

In 10 years maybe less the NCAA will have nothing to do with D1 football and mens basketball. They will break away and do their own governing body mainly to the points of many, the $$$ will be too great and these schools (Syracuse Included) will be part of this new group for football and basketball. With that said I think there will be “tiers” on the football side and the SEC with some new additions will be part of the “premier” portion.

The NCAA will “sanction” Olympic sports only as well as D2 and D3 athletics in all sports.

I respect the opinions of many on here who say they won’t watch a regional college football series which will be primarily southeast based but this country is football crazy/hungry and will have the support of enough to make it more than viable for those who choose to play in that sandbox.

 

[TerryD]

ND would never drop down...will pay players first. Too much pressure from boosters, alumni, subway alumni...you can't fight City Hall.

Now, I expect ND...like many schools...will try to stop this current insane NIL process...get this new system regulated. We will see if this works..stop this crazy fake NIL...this is a slush fund for boosters, nothing more...I really don't know if it can be stopped. I hope most programs band together to set up new rules...but it only takes a Texas A & M.. Miami and USC...just a few major outliers.. to mess things all up

Already you have the two Texas schools, Miami and USC jumping into this pay to play head first...I'll predict Tennessee and Florida soon follow...once you got 10, 12, 15 schools involved...how do you get things under control then? Not sure you can...then it is survival of fittest

Any "banding together" to limit player compensation will be found by the Supreme Court to be an anti-trust violation and will be struck down.

I expect the Supreme Court will soon hold that all college sports athletes are direct employees of the university, so "dropping down" to an "academic model" will mean that those schools...will still have to pay players.

They will just be doing so at a Tier 2 level while the "non-academic" schools will be in Tier 1 with the best athletes, TV deals, exposure and other massive advantages.

There will be no "other system" that will be legal.

Now, schools can group together into an "academic model", sure, but any attempt to "regulate" NIL or player compensation will not likely pass legal muster in a future after the "right case" makes it to SCOTUS (see Kavanaugh concurrence in Alston).

Think about it:

What attempts are made collectively by NCAA schools to limit the compensation of head coaches, assistant coaches, athletic trainers, athletic directors, their huge staffs, university presidents, janitors, library employees or other students who are employed?

Coming up with schemes/collusion in the future to limit player compensation will likely be struck down as anti-trust violations.

The "student-athlete" scam was a walking, talking anti-trust violation for decades.

It just took the conferences to sign and incessantly brag about their big blockbuster TV deals and coaches getting ever larger coaching contracts to motivate players to file lawsuits to get a piece of that growing economic pie that earned the schools more $$$ but not the players.

 

[elimunelson]

Any "banding together" to limit player compensation will be found by the Supreme Court to be an anti-trust violation and will be struck down.

I expect the Supreme Court will soon hold that all college sports athletes are direct employees of the university, so "dropping down" to an "academic model" will mean that those schools...will still have to pay players.

They will just be doing so at a Tier 2 level while the "non-academic" schools will be in Tier 1 with the best athletes, TV deals, exposure and other massive advantages.

There will be no "other system" that will be legal.

Now, schools can group together into an "academic model", sure, but any attempt to "regulate" NIL or player compensation will not likely pass legal muster in a future after the "right case" makes it to SCOTUS (see Kavanaugh concurrence in Alston).

Think about it:

What attempts are made collectively by NCAA schools to limit the compensation of head coaches, assistant coaches, athletic trainers, athletic directors, their huge staffs, university presidents, janitors, library employees or other students who are employed?

Coming up with schemes/collusion in the future to limit player compensation will likely be struck down as anti-trust violations.

The "student-athlete" scam was a walking, talking anti-trust violation for decades.

It just took the conferences to sign and incessantly brag about their big blockbuster TV deals and coaches getting ever larger coaching contracts to motivate players to file lawsuits to get a piece of that growing economic pie that earned the schools more $$$ but not the players.

Good post Terry. I think ND is making it very clear that they want some oversight to limit the player compensation regardless of what the supreme court decides.

At the end of the day, the football schools will end up collectively bargaining with these employees and decide how much they want to pay them. I think ND will look to keep things status quo.

I think ultimately the system is heading to a complete collapse absent congressional action and/or supreme court rulings furthering their employment status.

I would agree that ND won't be excited about dropping down in football but I can't imagine the academic mission of ND will want football to be above everything else at the university. Similar to Duke and basketball, Stanford and water polo.

 

[sufandu]

Not sure where you've lived but whatever they decide to do will certainly last. The south cares about college football more than anything. Wherever those schools play their games, there will be fans dying for more of it.

I guess the question is whether it will be a league of regional interest versus national interest. If fewer schools means less interest spread across the country and fewer eyeballs on television sets, that could mean less money than they hope for/expect.

I look at college sports relative to my interest in SU. If there is a league that SU doesn't participate in, I likely will have no interest in that league. I suspect there are other SU fans and fans of other non-factory schools that think similarly. Sure, there are the sports junkies that will watch as much football as they can regardless, but are there enough of them to support a semi-pro college league? How many people watch triple A baseball or g-league basketball? Once something becomes professional, most people only want to watch the highest level of it.