Whispers: Realignment May Not be in Check

[arbitragegls]

Well that was a good article by ESPN on those individuals that will determine the four playoff teams. The article is here:

http://espn.go.com/college-football...-committee-expected-finalized-end-2013-season

This is somewhat newsworthy but it has left out very important information even after providing insight to selection of team criteria. For example the article notes:

"The broad criteria for selection are set -- head-to-head matchups, common opponents, conference championships... but the specific guidelines still have to be determined", Hancock said. Committee members will have "every bit of data on every team" at their disposal".

What I am hearing in a hushed tone is that the above statement is missing an important element..SPECIFICS. For example:

The above does not weight the selection criteria....is conference championship as important as common opponents...define conference champion.
...in Big 12 it is the conference best record without a conference championship game
...in the SEC is it the winner of the championship game or can it be the other team that won its division...
THE WEIGHTING OF EACH CRITERIA MAY IN FACT call for rather significant changes to realignment. For example:

• if being a conference champion is simply team with best conference record than the Big 12 at 10 teams and/or no conference championship game is okay at 10 teams;
• if a good amount of weight is given for winning a championship, how does any independent team get in...outside of being far and away the best team in the land...so Notre Dame and BYU and ARMY etc need to find a conference if they want to go to the NC.

So as of today, very little is yet known as to the selection process. As some have thought, the realignment craze may not be over...and movement may happen in the next several months...standby:
1. Does Big 12 need to get to 12 teams in order to get a Conference Champion as defined by Conference Championship Game--which must have minimally 12 teams in conference per NCAA rules?
2. Does Notre Dame need to fully join a conference and is that the ACC?
3. Which team are going to be in play from one conference to another?

Present stability can remain if CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP is better defined and it is given less weight than other factors. For example, Conference Championship means winning your conference without a championship game--Big 12 is set as is...but how does Notre Dame and BYU get a pass. if they are in no conference...???? This is going to be of interest to us all.

The whisper, which was mentioned in previous thread is that Swofford has been quoted that if "NOTRE DAME joins a conference before 2027 it is obligated to contractually join the ACC"--now why did Swofford make that statement after the GOR was signed...no real reason to have said that except...perhaps...a foretelling of what may take place based on simple weighting of "Conference Champion" being better defined.

It is as if a story line is beginning to be written as a day time soap opera. So much up in the air yet the pieces to the pie keep falling almost in place...(more soon)

It's Good to Be 'Cuse!! The Order of The 'Cuse Orange..

 

[sabach]

The ACC GOR will be very important in this. If the Big 12 must expand to get to 12 in order to have a championship game, they may have to look at schools outside of the ACC (Cinn, USF). If ND must join a conference to be a conference champion, that has to be the ACC, if Swofford is correct. If ND goes to the ACC, does the ACC go to 16, if so is that 16th UConn?

In the end, I think that conference champion will be defined as whatever team each individual conference deems its champion. I can't imagine that conference champion will have much weight though because conferences define champions in different ways and ND is not even in a confernce. The problem is a one win SEC team that is ranked number 2 in the country at the end of the year (say Texas A&M) and doesn't even win its division let alone conference because it lost in the regular season to the #1 team in the country (say Alabama).

 

[HtownOrange]

The Maryland suit will have far more bearing on the potential teams switching from one P5 conference to another. Also, with WVUs troubles, you have to think Clemson and FSU are off the table unless they can convince 4 other "local" teams to go with them to create the eastern division for the Big 12 and a southeast division for the B1G. With the high costs of leaving a conference in the P5, this most likely limits the choices to the Indies, AAC, CUSA and MAC teams for expansion.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

An undefeated Notre Dame will always have a place in the CFB Playoffs, whether they are in a conference or not.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Thanks Arb! A lot to consider here.


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[orangeinjersey]

If, UND joings as 15, the ACC should pick off WVA from the B12. You know Ollie would jump IN A HEARTBEAT. Then let the B12 scramble and pick up some AAC remnants

 

[baggerbob]

An undefeated Notre Dame will always have a place in the CFB Playoffs, whether they are in a conference or not.

Yes but Notre Dame being undefeated playing 5 ACC teams, USC, and Stanford every year isn't going to happen very often. Then except for navy you will usually have 4 more tough games, it might be another 20 years before they go undefeated again.

 

[Lou_C]

I don't think it's going to be nearly as cut and dried as that. I think you're talking about tiebreakers here. So an 11-1 Notre Dame or Texas A&M might get jumped for an 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 Oregon based on a conference championship, but they aren't going to get jumped for an 11-2 Clemson. And even in some cases, they'll decide a strength of schedule outweighs a conference championship I'm sure.

And I don't see any reason why they wouldn't weight a Big 12 conference championship equally. The problem with not having a championship game is that by default they are going to have one less game, and a game that is usually going to be against a top opponent. That could hurt.

 

[Alsacs]

Notre Dame is not going to join the ACC before 2027 IMO. Unless their TV deal with NBC has an opt-out clause the lawsuit to clean up those TV rights there would be too much blood in those fights that I am not going to even start on it as NBC would never give Notre Dame to ESPN/ABC. I do think that eventually realignment will cause ND to join a conference and in 2027 I think that is the best bet. As I have said the Notre Dame for all intents and purposes has given the ACC the proverbial verbal to join the conference but the until the LOI is signed they aren't a member. I don't see ND ever joining the B1G, P-12, Big XII, or SEC but the ACC has a while to go before they join the conference as a football member. The only conference I see expanding in the near future is the Big XII and I think they need to make sure Texas wants to stay after the GOR expires I think in 2018 or so. Texas may want to move to the Pac-12, SEC, B1G or see if they can get the ND deal with the ACC as Texas A&M continues to rake money and influence in Texas with Johnny Manziel. If the Big XII expands I see them adding two atleast from BYU, Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida. The fact that Big XII pays good money to its members is because TCU and WVU don't get full payments till 2018 and once they have to feed 10 mouths equally their per team amount will go down which our WVU-jihadists never admit and a conference title game in JerryWorld would likely add revenue to the Big XII.

 

[SmilinBob]

If, UND joings as 15, the ACC should pick off WVA from the B12. You know Ollie would jump IN A HEARTBEAT. Then let the B12 scramble and pick up some AAC remnants

If ND joins I want it to be kept at 15 and one division. Unless...Texas becomes available and we all know that Oklahoma is bound for the Big 10 so they are out. Keep the academics high and not lower them anymore than what the ACC has in Louisville.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

If ND joins I want it to be kept at 15 and one division. Unless...Texas becomes available and we all know that Oklahoma is bound for the Big 10 so they are out. Keep the academics high and not lower them anymore than what the ACC has in Louisville.

Uh, we're in two divisions now. And we can't have an ACC Championship Game unless we have two divisions.

 

[SmilinBob]

Uh, we're in two divisions now. And we can't have an ACC Championship Game unless we have two divisions.

That is just the NCAA being the NCAA and one dimensional thinking. I'll never understand the love or need for divisions, ever. Time to change this and reward the better teams, not punish them.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

That is just the NCAA being the NCAA and one dimensional thinking. I'll never understand the love or need for divisions, ever. Time to change this and reward the better teams, not punish them.

Are you planning on playing a 14 game ACC conference schedule?

 

[SmilinBob]

Are you planning on playing a 14 game ACC conference schedule?

Actually I'd love that! Be 13 right now though but still there is no doubt that 1 division would give the ACC its best two teams year in and year out by just playing the 9.

 

[riskylogic]

Notre Dame is not going to join the ACC before 2027 IMO. Unless their TV deal with NBC has an opt-out clause the lawsuit to clean up those TV rights there would be too much blood in those fights that I am not going to even start on it as NBC would never give Notre Dame to ESPN/ABC.

I don't think the TV contact is really an issue. ND owns their home games. ESPN and the rest of the ACC would own more than the 2.5 away games they have now.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't think the TV contact is really an issue. ND owns their home games. ESPN and the rest of the ACC would own more than the 2.5 away games they have now.

TV would be a huge issue because ND joining the ACC full-time would require their TV rights be under the contract that the ACC has signed and the ACC is aligned with ESPN and ND is aligned with NBC. It would take some legal negotiations to clean up this problem. I would love ND to join the conference but they agreed to join fully then the TV rights would have to come with them.

 

[Lou_C]

TV would be a huge issue because ND joining the ACC full-time would require their TV rights be under the contract that the ACC has signed and the ACC is aligned with ESPN and ND is aligned with NBC. It would take some legal negotiations to clean up this problem. I would love ND to join the conference but they agreed to join fully then the TV rights would have to come with them.

I don't think it's that big a deal. ESPN works with other networks. It would be similar to the way ESPN works with CBS on the SEC. It would be worth it I think to ESPN.

Since it would be Notre Dame specific, Notre Dame's cut of the payout would just be altered, they wouldn't get a full piece of the ACC contract. Basically they would "buy out" their home games and sell them to NBC.

That's the least of the issues to overcome.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't think it's that big a deal. ESPN works with other networks. It would be similar to the way ESPN works with CBS on the SEC. It would be worth it I think to ESPN.

Since it would be Notre Dame specific, Notre Dame's cut of the payout would just be altered, they wouldn't get a full piece of the ACC contract. Basically they would "buy out" their home games and sell them to NBC.

That's the least of the issues to overcome.

That is different though. The SEC on CBS guarantees the SEC #1 game to CBS each week and 3 doubleheaders during the season. Under the old deal ESPN couldn't run any other SEC games from 3:30 till 7 but CBS relented exclusivity and starting next year the SEC could have games on ESPNU or ESPN at 3:30. CBS however under the contract does not allow ANY SEC HOME games on ABC at all and will never allow this to be modified even though ABC is now ESPN on ABC. Notre Dame will eventually join a conference but it won't be till their NBC deal has expired.

 

[shantydaze]

My guess is that Conference Champion will be defined by the conferences. If there is a CCG, the Conference Champion will be the winner of that game. If the XII does not have a CCG, it will be based on whatever criteria is set by XII as multiple teams could finish with the same record.

I would not be surprised if the selection committee first takes all of the P5 Champions and ranks them. The top three teams (not conferences) make it into the play-offs automatically. Then, the committee will look at the remaining two P5 Champions, independents, non-BCS conference champions, and the other P5 teams to determine who gets the fourth slot. I do not think, unless in a very extreme situation, you would see only two conferences being represented in the playoff.

I think the number of teams will be increased to eight in a relatively short time frame depending on how this shakes out the next couple of years. For instance, what happens if a 9-3 Georgia team beats an undefeated Alabama team and the second place team in the SEC West is aTm, whose only loss was to Alabama? It is a no-win situation. ACC fans will be up in arms if a 9-3 Georgia team makes it ahead of a 10-2 ACC Champion Wake Forest. aTm fans will be pissed if Georgia gets the nod instead of them and Alabama will be pissed if aTm goes to the play-offs instead of them. Also, what will happen if the same conference's champion gets passed over every year?

That is why it makes sense to go to eight teams with all five power conferences getting an official or unofficial automatic bid. As SOS and the strength of the conferences will be reviewed when ranking the at large bids, a member the XII may be penalized for only being in a 10 team league and the B1G may be penalized for playing in a league with Rutgers.

 

[Scooch]

I think you're overthinking this.

 

[Crusty]

Arb you're back!
Glad u escaped I was about to have a fund raiser to pay the ransom.