Who sees the ball more, who sees the ball less

[OttoinGrotto]

TL;DR - This ended up being a pretty dumb post with some obvious conclusions, but you know, I spent time typing it up and thinking about it so I hit the button to post it, even though this may be one of the worst posts we see on this board all year.

This is a little exercise in an attempt to figure out how the ball will be spread around the offense this year vs last. I expect that with more snaps we'll see more stats, so it's logical that most guys will see numbers increases. In a few cases I think some guys are in for much bigger roles, and some players will have their roles decreased.

Passing (lost 122 attempts from D. Allen, 6 attempts from RGLCL):

T. Hunt, 273 passing attempts last season. Obvious +, he'll have more games played and with a faster paced offense I expect more passing attempts.

Rushing (lost 200 carries from J. Smith):

T. Hunt, 106 carries last season. Also +, for the same reason as above.

PTG, 83 carries last season. In for a big +, likely back in range of the 150ish carries he received the season prior.

G. Morris, 79 carries last season. Would not surprise me if he ends up being our leading rusher, so I expect a big increase here: +.

D. McFarlane, 48 carries. I'm not so secretly hoping he becomes a featured player on offense, but even without that I expect him to get more carries: +.

AAM, 5 carries. I mean, I guess he's our second back? I'll believe it if he is actually the first man in off the bench at RB. He could eclipse his rushing totals from last season in one game. Call it a +.

Receiving (not as much to replace here, 36 receptions from Chris Clark and 10 from Beckett Wales. This one's a little tricky to predict though because I expect Ishmael and Custis to catch a lot of passes as newcomers, say 45 balls between the two of them):

A. Broyld, 52 catches. This one's difficult. I think Broyld is still part of the plan on offense, but I'm just not feeling that he's going to see the ball as much. I think moving back to the stupidly named "H-Back" position and splitting time with Salt Badger is going to eat in to his stats some. I think Broyld will catch fewer passes this season, so -.

J. West, 26 catches. West dropped off quite a bit from his sophomore season. I'm not sure he'll reach the totals he did as a sophomore, but I do expect him to beat this last season, +.

Salt Badger, 28 catches. People seem to think he's going to be big time, so I suspect he's looking like a strong possibility to make a lot of catches. Obvious +.

J. Kobena, 16 catches. Man, I don't know. Kobena's been a personal favorite of mine. I think he's better than he's shown. I think some other guys have passed him though. I'm going to say -, but I'd love to see him end with a big senior season.

A. Cornelius, 9 catches. Came on late, expect him to carry some momentum from the end of last season. I think he'll end this season in the high 20s, so call it a +.

J. Parris, 13 catches. If this injury doesn't linger should be an obvious +.

K. Moore, 6 catches. Hard to say. He's not really a receiving TE. He kind of had one big game then was really quiet. Six catches isn't a whole lot to top though. I'm not sure that he'll have much of a role in the offense, but even so I think he'll catch more than 6 passes, so +.

Q. Funderburk, 3 catches. I think we all want to see him become a part of the rotation, but he didn't really put it together last season and there's not much buzz around him. Still, not hard to top 3 catches, so +.

A. Flemming, 2 catches. The mystery man returns! If he's a top line receiver we better see more than 2 receptions out of him. Has to be a +.

B. "Parker" Lewis "Can't Lose," 1 catch. I can't figure this guy out. I'm not sure he's all that good, but he just seems to hang around. I think he's in the mix though. I can see anything from he never plays to he catches 20 passes. Got to be a +.

In conclusion, I'm an idiot.

 

[TBCuse11]

i have tooted Brisly's horn since the day he signed with us. He is going to be all ACC as a senior. Kid has speed we dont get here anymore.

 

[LoudHouse44]

If you think your post is dumb then I think you've missed some posts lol. Glad you took the time to put it together and actually post it...I never would have. Thanks.

 

[BlazeOrange]

If you think your post is dumb then I think you've missed some posts lol. Glad you took the time to put it together and actually post it...I never would have. Thanks.

The idea is good, but limited by the overall assumption that we'll run a bunch more plays. Maybe you could figure out the % of plays each player received last year and guess if that % will increase or decrease this year? Could also go a step further and guess the total number of run and pass plays that we'll run (use actual stats from other high tempo teams to ground truth it). Then you could calculate projected stats for each player.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

The idea is good, but limited by the overall assumption that we'll run a bunch more plays. Maybe you could figure out the % of plays each player received last year and guess if that % will increase or decrease this year? Could also go a step further and guess the total number of run and pass plays that we'll run (use actual stats from other high tempo teams to ground truth it). Then you could calculate projected stats for each player.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The idea is good, but limited by the overall assumption that we'll run a bunch more plays. Maybe you could figure out the % of plays each player received last year and guess if that % will increase or decrease this year? Could also go a step further and guess the total number of run and pass plays that we'll run (use actual stats from other high tempo teams to ground truth it). Then you could calculate projected stats for each player.

I mean, that sounds like, a lot of work, man.

 

[MikeSU02]

One thing that stands out to me is just how high the potential number of hits T Hunt may be taking this year.

He seemed pretty durable, but Austin Wilson better keep that arm loose.

 

[LoudHouse44]

The idea is good, but limited by the overall assumption that we'll run a bunch more plays. Maybe you could figure out the % of plays each player received last year and guess if that % will increase or decrease this year? Could also go a step further and guess the total number of run and pass plays that we'll run (use actual stats from other high tempo teams to ground truth it). Then you could calculate projected stats for each player.

I definitely don't disagree with you. That would be a great analysis. Just appreciative of the work that did go in to it. I love some of the stuff people come up with on here.

 

[memcorsu]

AAM is finally the back we expected when he committed. From seeing him in person this summer compared to last year he has put the work in. He also catches the ball well out of the backfield as do all of the RBs. I would suggest he gets more than 5 carries against Vill alone.

 

[BlazeOrange]

I mean, that sounds like, a lot of work, man.

You already did the hardest part by digging up all of last season's stats. But if it was easy, I would've just done it instead of suggesting someone else do the calcs.

 

[Crusty]

Yeah, its dumb, but not as dumb as some of mine. Should have used the Herm Edwards rule -DON'T HIT SEND!

Since you spent the time here is mine:
We ran 959 plays last year in 13 games for an average of 74 plays per game (54th) - down from 80 (18th) in 2012.

For 2013 perspective:
SU Games 13 Plays 959 Plays Per Game 74 Rank total plays 36
Clemson Games 13 Plays 1,039 Plays Per Game 80 Rank total plays 13th
Duke Games 14 Plays 1,016 Plays Per Game 73 Rank total plays 19th


Passing (lost 122 attempts from D. Allen, 6 attempts from RGLCL):
I am going to say we average 82 plays per game (1,066 plays) and 48% of them will be passes. That is about 512 passing attempts and 554 rushes for a 13 game season. I think McD loves the quick game so I think we will be right up there is run/pass %. FYI, last year Clemson and Duke passed 48% and 47% of the time, respectively.

T. Hunt, 273 passing attempts last season. Obvious +, he'll have more games played and with a faster paced offense I expect more passing attempts.

Hunt 425, Wilson 45, Long 12, others 12. Let's say we have a 65% completion rate - that is 332 catches to spread around. That's a lot of catches.

Rushing (lost 200 carries from J. Smith):
We will have 554 rushes to hand out or about the same as last year.

T. Hunt, 106 carries last season. Also +, for the same reason as above. A more mature Hunt may be see the field better and receivers may be open more often so he may take off fewer times. I could see the same or even fewer rushes.

PTG, 83 carries last season. In for a big +, likely back in range of the 150ish carries he received the season prior. Is he durable enough to handle 150 carries? Don't know.++

G. Morris, 79 carries last season. Would not surprise me if he ends up being our leading rusher, so I expect a big increase here: +. G Morris II - 125 ++

D. McFarlane, 48 carries. I'm not so secretly hoping he becomes a featured player on offense, but even without that I expect him to get more carries: +. RunDMC 65 carries. ++

AAM, 5 carries. I mean, I guess he's our second back? I'll believe it if he is actually the first man in off the bench at RB. He could eclipse his rushing totals from last season in one game. Call it a +. AAM is the E-Back (Enigma Back) I haven't a clue.+

Receiving (not as much to replace here, 36 receptions from Chris Clark and 10 from Beckett Wales. This one's a little tricky to predict though because I expect Ishmael and Custis to catch a lot of passes as newcomers, say 45 balls between the two of them):

Clark did very good duty for us for an 85 pound speedster-weakling! Really like that kid.

Ismael and Custis are going to get everybody hopped up about 2015. As the season goes on I think they will play very important roles as we sweep out last 5 games (including a bowl) to finish 11-2. Say 65 balls between them.++

A. Broyld, 52 catches. This one's difficult. I think Broyld is still part of the plan on offense, but I'm just not feeling that he's going to see the ball as much. I think moving back to the stupidly named "H-Back" position and splitting time with Salt Badger is going to eat in to his stats some. I think Broyld will catch fewer passes this season, so -. Tough call here - we'll have more attempts so I could see him catch about the same.

J. West, 26 catches. West dropped off quite a bit from his sophomore season. I'm not sure he'll reach the totals he did as a sophomore, but I do expect him to beat this last season, +. I just can't figure West.+-

Salt Badger, 28 catches. People seem to think he's going to be big time, so I suspect he's looking like a strong possibility to make a lot of catches. Obvious +. Also look to see him covered like a blanket - let's say 50.++

J. Kobena, 16 catches. Man, I don't know. Kobena's been a personal favorite of mine. I think he's better than he's shown. I think some other guys have passed him though. I'm going to say -, but I'd love to see him end with a big senior season.
Sorry to say, I just don't think he is as good as the others. If you don't block I don't think they are going to play you. He will have a tough time getting on the field. -

A. Cornelius, 9 catches. Came on late, expect him to carry some momentum from the end of last season. I think he'll end this season in the high 20s, so call it a +. ALVIN! I like him and I think he is going to surprise a lot of people.++

J. Parris, 13 catches. If this injury doesn't linger should be an obvious +. Agreed +

K. Moore, 6 catches. Hard to say. He's not really a receiving TE. He kind of had one big game then was really quiet. Six catches isn't a whole lot to top though. I'm not sure that he'll have much of a role in the offense, but even so I think he'll catch more than 6 passes, so +. He is going to be open a lot more this year. ++

Q. Funderburk, 3 catches. I think we all want to see him become a part of the rotation, but he didn't really put it together last season and there's not much buzz around him. Still, not hard to top 3 catches, so +. Haven't a clue. Rooting for him though. +

A. Flemming, 2 catches. The mystery man returns! If he's a top line receiver we better see more than 2 receptions out of him. Has to be a +. Rooting for Flemming also. ++

B. "Parker" Lewis "Can't Lose," 1 catch. I can't figure this guy out. I'm not sure he's all that good, but he just seems to hang around. I think he's in the mix though. I can see anything from he never plays to he catches 20 passes. Got to be a +.

Agreed +

If we play bowl games in the nest two years and Hunt stays healthy, with the uptempo offense and the receivers we now have, Hunt could wind up with some pretty impressive numbers.

I think this team is even more underrated than the 2013 team. When was the last time we were overrated?
Go Orange!

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Crusty did my post proper.