Who will provide the fire next year?

[Brooky03]

I'm not saying the cupboard is completely bare, and I think you're right that Coleman will score. My estimate is about 8-10 ppg, which would double his most recent average playing 26 (twice his previous 13) minutes (link below). Unfortunately, that's half the offensive output we had from the post last year -- with no other player capable of taking up the slack. TR may increase his average by a couple points, although IMO he's already playing out of position. But I think we take a hit of 6-8 points inside, which is significant.

Even with Coleman playing, what, 25 mpg, I think rebounding will again be a problem. No doubt he's a force on the glass. As you pointed out, he might be a better positional defender and rebounder than Rak because you can't move him out of the way. But he's only one guy, on one side of the rim. Who's next to him (6-7 205)?; and who's behind him (a 6-8 freshman backup)? Wow. I'll be covering my eyes when we play UNC, Virginia, Duke, Florida State, Miami, etc...

And Defensively, we're sitting ducks. We don't have a shot-blocker, or anyone who can play above the rim. We're thin, inexperienced and unathletic inside. Even with Rak (without CM) we had trouble last year. Some of that was penetration by opposing guards. But rebounding and interior defense are about a take a hit. And I see no way out, except a JUCO or some amazing recruit the staff pulls out of the air.

http://cuse.com/documents/2015/4/27//SUFINALstats3_24_14.pdf?id=8880

I'm honestly not too worried about rebounding. Our forwards are the important guys when it comes to defensive rebounding and we're returning both of them from last season, so there shouldn't be a huge drop off. Coleman doesn't play above the rim like Rak did, for sure, but I think his rebounds per minute played were pretty similar to what Rak was doing. And, even if he can't do anything else, Obokoh can grab boards.

We're definitely in agreement that we don't have a shot blocker. I think Diagne will eventually be that guy for us, and even Lydon could from the weak side, but yeah I just don't see that being a strong point for this team next season. However, our perimeter defense should be improved - depending on KJ's development - and we might make up for 2-3 less blocks per game with 2-3 more steals per game. G should be more comfortable at SF, Cooney did an excellent job intercepting passes last season, KJ can't get worse, and Malachi at least provides a lot of length up top.

As for scoring, I don't think it's a stretch to assume KJ and/or Malachi can pick up the 5-7 points we'll be losing from Rak. Yes, they're not going to be interior points from a big man, but Malachi's will presumably be from behind the arc, which we sorely need, and Joseph's should be at the rim.

 

[OlsenRyan13]

G 15
Cooney 12
Roberson 10
Coleman 8
KJ 6
Malachi 7
Diagne 5
Lydon 4
Howard 3
Obokoh 2

That's 70 ppg right there, and I would say that's right where I would expect every guy to be at next year, so I don't think we're going to be missing as much offense as we think with Rak gone. As for defense, let's not forget that the whole reason a team plays the 2-3 zone in the first place is to prevent teams with bigger guys from dominating down low, so I'm not too worried about us getting killed in the paint. More worried about us getting burned up top and from 3 in an ACC next year that is looking to be pretty guard-heavy. When that happens, the zone must adjust to cover the 3 pt line, and that's when the other team can start driving and exposing the inside of the zone. Key to the defense this year is how Cooney KJ Malachi and others can perform up top IMO.

 

[Brooky03]

G 15
Cooney 12
Roberson 10
Coleman 8
KJ 6
Malachi 7
Diagne 5
Lydon 4
Howard 3
Obokoh 2

That's 70 ppg right there, and I would say that's right where I would expect every guy to be at next year, so I don't think we're going to be missing as much offense as we think with Rak gone. As for defense, let's not forget that the whole reason a team plays the 2-3 zone in the first place is to prevent teams with bigger guys from dominating down low, so I'm not too worried about us getting killed in the paint. More worried about us getting burned up top and from 3 in an ACC next year that is looking to be pretty guard-heavy. When that happens, the zone must adjust to cover the 3 pt line, and that's when the other team can start driving and exposing the inside of the zone. Key to the defense this year is how Cooney KJ Malachi and others can perform up top IMO.

I can see Lydon possibly giving us a little, but I don't think Howard sees any playing time in conference play. As always when it comes to projecting negatively for a player, I'd love to be wrong, but Howard just probably isn't going to be ready. Aside from that, these numbers aren't bad. G and Cooney could even push their ppg a little higher than 15 and 12, and KJ should hopefully give us more than 6.

 

[pearl31]

G 15
Cooney 12
Roberson 10
Coleman 8
KJ 6
Malachi 7
Diagne 5
Lydon 4
Howard 3
Obokoh 2

That's 70 ppg right there, and I would say that's right where I would expect every guy to be at next year, so I don't think we're going to be missing as much offense as we think with Rak gone. As for defense, let's not forget that the whole reason a team plays the 2-3 zone in the first place is to prevent teams with bigger guys from dominating down low, so I'm not too worried about us getting killed in the paint. More worried about us getting burned up top and from 3 in an ACC next year that is looking to be pretty guard-heavy. When that happens, the zone must adjust to cover the 3 pt line, and that's when the other team can start driving and exposing the inside of the zone. Key to the defense this year is how Cooney KJ Malachi and others can perform up top IMO.

Right on.
I get a kick out of how folks continue to use the "we lose Rak's points and defense" argument for doubting the team's prospects, as if the team just won't be able to have other guys step up and improve upon last year (not to mention very talented new guys coming in). It's like you're just supposed to assume there's some huge void that simply cannot be filled.

 

[reedny]

G 15
Cooney 12
Roberson 10
Coleman 8
KJ 6
Malachi 7
Diagne 5
Lydon 4
Howard 3
Obokoh 2

That's 70 ppg right there, and I would say that's right where I would expect every guy to be at next year, so I don't think we're going to be missing as much offense as we think with Rak gone. As for defense, let's not forget that the whole reason a team plays the 2-3 zone in the first place is to prevent teams with bigger guys from dominating down low, so I'm not too worried about us getting killed in the paint. More worried about us getting burned up top and from 3 in an ACC next year that is looking to be pretty guard-heavy. When that happens, the zone must adjust to cover the 3 pt line, and that's when the other team can start driving and exposing the inside of the zone. Key to the defense this year is how Cooney KJ Malachi and others can perform up top IMO.

I don't think your numbers are way off, except some of the freshmen may not play in conference games. And you and Pearl may think I'm playing Eeyore today.

But even if we get all that scoring from the starters and bench, we have some defensive issues. First of all, we're going to get toasted up top. We have the same guys returning ... and they got burned at will by the league's better guards last season. I know I'm on a pessimism roll here, but I don't see any reason for a major transformation of our perimeter defense.

And I think our interior defense will be significantly worse without Rak and CM. Yes the zone can mask size issues somewhat .. but that's not going to keep us competitive with the better teams in the ACC. We're short, unathletic, inexperienced and thin inside. I don't know how you mask that with zone defense, especially when your front line has no returning starters except a 6-7/205 "PF".

 

[reedny]

Right on.
I get a kick out of how folks continue to use the "we lose Rak's points and defense" argument for doubting the team's prospects, as if the team just won't be able to have other guys step up and improve upon last year (not to mention very talented new guys coming in). It's like you're just supposed to assume there's some huge void that simply cannot be filled.

Pretty much. (I'm playing the bad guy today, Pearl)>

 

[Brooky03]

I don't think your numbers are way off, except some of the freshmen may not play in conference games. And you and Pearl may think I'm playing Eeyore today.

But even if we get all that scoring from the starters and bench, we have some defensive issues. First of all, we're going to get toasted up top. We have the same guys returning ... and they got burned at will by the league's better guards last season. I know I'm on a pessimism role here, but I don't see any reason for a major transformation of our perimeter defense.

And I think our interior defense will be significantly worse without Rak and CM. Yes the zone can mask size issues somewhat .. but that's not going to keep us competitive with the better teams in the ACC. We're short, unathletic, inexperienced and thin inside. I don't know how you mask that with zone defense, especially when your front line has no returning starters except a 6-7/205 "PF".

To be fair, I haven't factored CM at all in comparison to last year's team. He didn't play in conference, so he might as well have not played at all, in terms of comparision to last year's team.

If we're including him, yes, there's no way our interior defense could get to that level. Not including him, Rak's loss is not nearly as bad as it seems. Like I said previously, he had to allow post players to do whatever they wanted on some possessions out of fear of fouling. He was a great interior defender when he didn' t have to handcuff himself, but I think Coleman will benefit more than expected from being able to play physical defense.

The perimeter defense comes down to KJ. Cooney wasn't great at times, but I think a lot of that had to do with KJ's inexperience. When G and Cooney were at the top of the zone, it was much better. So, if KJ can step it up and stay in front of his guy, that will pay dividends for Cooney and/or Malachi. Idk if KJ will step up like we need, but I think he's capable.

 

[pearl31]

Pretty much. (I'm playing the bad guy today, Pearl)>

hey, you play it well!

 

[OlsenRyan13]

To be fair, I haven't factored CM at all in comparison to last year's team. He didn't play in conference, so he might as well have not played at all, in terms of comparision to last year's team.

If we're including him, yes, there's no way our interior defense could get to that level. Not including him, Rak's loss is not nearly as bad as it seems. Like I said previously, he had to allow post players to do whatever they wanted on some possessions out of fear of fouling. He was a great interior defender when he didn' t have to handcuff himself, but I think Coleman will benefit more than expected from being able to play physical defense.

The perimeter defense comes down to KJ. Cooney wasn't great at times, but I think a lot of that had to do with KJ's inexperience. When G and Cooney were at the top of the zone, it was much better. So, if KJ can step it up and stay in front of his guy, that will pay dividends for Cooney and/or Malachi. Idk if KJ will step up like we need, but I think he's capable.

The more I think about it, the more I think that KJ isn't all that essential to this team. If he proves early on that he isn't good enough to be our starting PG, then move Gbinije to the 1 and give either Richardson or Diagne a shot in the starting lineup. Richardson & Cooney on the floor at the same time would open up looks for both of them, or you could have Diagne and Coleman together to make the back line of the defense stronger. Gbinije may not be a true PG, but you have to think that a capable scorer at 6'7 handling the ball can't be a bad thing and would definitely create some mismatches. I still think KJ has to be serviceable and should play at least 15-20 mins, but if he's struggling then I don't really have a problem moving him to the backup PG role and giving either of those guys a chance to start.

 

[Brooky03]

The more I think about it, the more I think that KJ isn't all that essential to this team. If he proves early on that he isn't good enough to be our starting PG, then move Gbinije to the 1 and give either Richardson or Diagne a shot in the starting lineup. Richardson & Cooney on the floor at the same time would open up looks for both of them, or you could have Diagne and Coleman together to make the back line of the defense stronger. Gbinije may not be a true PG, but you have to think that a capable scorer at 6'7 handling the ball can't be a bad thing and would definitely create some mismatches. I still think KJ has to be serviceable and should play at least 15-20 mins, but if he's struggling then I don't really have a problem moving him to the backup PG role and giving either of those guys a chance to start.

If Malachi can ball like we're all hoping he can - and play good defense - I'm onboard with this. Like you said, we'll need Joseph to get decent minutes still, but i mentioned in another thread that a G, Cooney, Richardson lineup would give us more shooting threats on the floor than we've had in a while.

 

[pearl31]

Obviously G at pg is an option but... he's just so much more potent on the wing when the other team's 3 or 4 has to guard him. That's why (to me) we need KJ to emerge as our regular pg

 

[SoBeCuse]

If Malachi can ball like we're all hoping he can - and play good defense - I'm onboard with this. Like you said, we'll need Joseph to get decent minutes still, but i mentioned in another thread that a G, Cooney, Richardson lineup would give us more shooting threats on the floor than we've had in a while.

I get what you are saying but who is going to create for them? How will they get open threes especially if Richardson/Cooney are one-dimensional type players. We don't have that luxury of double-teams with Rak gone. If we can somehow get the guards to penetrate to create for these guys then perhaps. This was a big problem last year.

 

[Brooky03]

I get what you are saying but who is going to create for them? How will they get open threes especially if Richardson/Cooney are one-dimensional type players. We don't have that luxury of double-teams with Rak gone. If we can somehow get the guards to penetrate to create for these guys then perhaps. This was a big problem last year.

I just meant that I could see this as an option. Re-reading it, it comes across more like I'm ready for this to be Option A.

Idk how strong Malachi's ballhandling is, but G can drive and finish as long as he's not facing an elite defender and Cooney can get in the lane pretty much when he wants but can't finish. Having all three guys outside the arc would really spread the floor and only make driving easier. It should also create really nice opportunities to get Coleman in 1-on-1 situation in the post. G could drive and kick to either wing or possibly hit a cutting Roberson. Or we could coninually feed Coleman and hope he has enough success that the defense has to cheat; then, dump it and kick it out to the open shooter.

 

[Dave85]

Those are reasonable points.

I don't ever see practice anymore, so I won't (and can't) contradict any of this. And I'm probably over-generalizing in suggesting that there's some "system" in place. There are always exceptions. In general, though, I see it like this: a freshman comes in, is lost on defense, doesn't really know what's required of a D-I player in practice, and sits for much of January-March. (Again, there are exceptions to this.) He has his March meeting with Boeheim; recommits himself; and comes back fit, knowledgeable, and driven; he plays well and frequently as a sophomore and junior. As a senior, he's cemented in the rotation and can go through the motions in practice without having to think too much about it, and Boeheim is glad because he doesn't think too much about managing the player. If there's a little drop-off in level of play (which we see -- especially defensively -- with many seniors), so be it.

That's over-simplified, but it's how I see a lot of four-year SU careers play out. Call it the Kris Joseph model.

The NBA draft talk, or in Kris Joseph's case the lack of talk, is very distracting to some players. I think two years ago our team completely changed character after the win against Duke.

 

[Dave85]

If Malachi is capable of giving us 2 or 3 successful 3-point shots per game coming off the bench it will be HUGE for our success next season.

 

[Brooky03]

If Malachi is capable of giving us 2 or 3 successful 3-point shots per game coming off the bench it will be HUGE for our success next season.

I hope he can. I miss 3 pointers. They're so pretty.

 

[jordoo]

What about this lineup:

Trevor
Malachi
Mike
Tyler Lydon
Coleman

No conventional PG but you could play 4 out and 1 in to get Coleman 1on1 looks in the post. It spreads the floor and Mike is going to be able to drive by most forwards plus I have to believe Tyler can drive by most power forwards out on the floor.

 

[pearl31]

What about this lineup:

Trevor
Malachi
Mike
Tyler Lydon
Coleman

No conventional PG but you could play 4 out and 1 in to get Coleman 1on1 looks in the post. It spreads the floor and Mike is going to be able to drive by most forwards plus I have to believe Tyler can drive by most power forwards out on the floor.

Like (the potential of) it.

 

[Cusefan0307]

What about this lineup:

Trevor
Malachi
Mike
Tyler Lydon
Coleman

No conventional PG but you could play 4 out and 1 in to get Coleman 1on1 looks in the post. It spreads the floor and Mike is going to be able to drive by most forwards plus I have to believe Tyler can drive by most power forwards out on the floor.

It all depends if Lydons athleticism allows him to out rebound stronger guys. I remember when Jerami went against Pitt his freshman year, they basically threw him out of the way. If we play a big/physical team I think Lydon has some problems. I can see their freshman seasons being similar with lydon being a better shooter.

 

[pearl31]

It all depends if Lydons athleticism allows him to out rebound stronger guys. I remember when Jerami went against Pitt his freshman year, they basically threw him out of the way. If we play a big/physical team I think Lydon has some problems. I can see their freshman seasons being similar with lydon being a better shooter.

Good points - but against most teams I'm confident TL will hold his own just fine.

 

[jordoo]

It all depends if Lydons athleticism allows him to out rebound stronger guys. I remember when Jerami went against Pitt his freshman year, they basically threw him out of the way. If we play a big/physical team I think Lydon has some problems. I can see their freshman seasons being similar with lydon being a better shooter.

no doubt that lineup would have me worried when it came to rebounding. I know that Lydon has no fear of mixing it up underneth and banging around. He also is extremely athletic but like you noted with Grant that doesn't always mean you are coming down with the rebound and certain teams that are very proficient at blocking out and getting into the lower body can negate the athletic advantage. I think Tyler will be a good rebounder but I'm not sure if that will happen in his first season.

 

[OlsenRyan13]

What about this lineup:

Trevor
Malachi
Mike
Tyler Lydon
Coleman

No conventional PG but you could play 4 out and 1 in to get Coleman 1on1 looks in the post. It spreads the floor and Mike is going to be able to drive by most forwards plus I have to believe Tyler can drive by most power forwards out on the floor.

Very interesting that you bring this up. This is much more similar to the style that other ACC teams tend to run- reminds me a lot of Notre Dame this year or Duke just about any year besides this past one. Lots of shooters, one big, spread the floor, and let the defense decide between leaving the shooters open or leaving Coleman 1-on-1 down low. Would love to see JB or Hop give this lineup a try, as I feel that they have generally stuck to their old Big East ways since the move to the ACC. Now that the league is starting to get used to our style of play, it may be time to throw them a bit of a curve ball, and this lineup could do just that.

 

[Dave85]

I hope he can. I miss 3 pointers. They're so pretty.

I'd rather our team make 2 fifteen foot jumpers than one 3-pointer. But I think someone has posted this is not a statistically good strategy.

 

[Brooky03]

I'd rather our team make 2 fifteen foot jumpers than one 3-pointer. But I think someone has posted this is not a statistically good strategy.

Yeah we have some guys around here who really dig advanced statistics and might argue that a midrange jumper is never the best option because it technically gets you the least points per shot. I'll take an open 15 footer over a contested layup any day, though.

Man, it would be nice if Roberson got comfortable with that shot. It could really open his game up!

 

[SoBeCuse]

I just meant that I could see this as an option. Re-reading it, it comes across more like I'm ready for this to be Option A.

Idk how strong Malachi's ballhandling is, but G can drive and finish as long as he's not facing an elite defender and Cooney can get in the lane pretty much when he wants but can't finish. Having all three guys outside the arc would really spread the floor and only make driving easier. It should also create really nice opportunities to get Coleman in 1-on-1 situation in the post. G could drive and kick to either wing or possibly hit a cutting Roberson. Or we could coninually feed Coleman and hope he has enough success that the defense has to cheat; then, dump it and kick it out to the open shooter.

Hopefully you are right. I don't agree with Cooney being able to get into the paint as easy as you claim but agree generally with your take.