Why do players like Josh Hart stay 4 years and we struggle to get 2 years for a bunch of players

[otisco]

I bitched about this and now its hilarious. Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart are declaring for the NBA draft.

LOL.

I would snag Hart late in the first round if I were an NBA team looking for a SG.

Doesn't invalidate your initial point. Under the new rules, everyone and their brother, literally, will "declare" for the draft. Only things that matter are whether they hire an agent and when/if they withdraw.

 

[OttoMets]

I agree but I think it's worth exploring for JB/Hop, etc. I mean, to me, what we're really talking about is kids that know how to play basketball but don't have the truly elite physical talent. What I like about the kids we brought in this year -- including Franky -- is that they are all basketball players. Whatever you think their projections are and whatever you think their NBA prospects are, they were kids who walked onto the college practice floor and belonged from day 1. I don't think we can say that about a lot of our recent recruits, including some high profile guys.

...

Great observation. This helped us overcome a personnel shortfall this year and should really pay dividends next season.

 

[RF2044]

I agree but I think it's worth exploring for JB/Hop, etc. I mean, to me, what we're really talking about is kids that know how to play basketball but don't have the truly elite physical talent. What I like about the kids we brought in this year -- including Franky -- is that they are all basketball players. Whatever you think their projections are and whatever you think their NBA prospects are, they were kids who walked onto the college practice floor and belonged from day 1. I don't think we can say that about a lot of our recent recruits, including some high profile guys.

So am I blaming the staff for the fact that Fab Melo wasn't ready to dominate as a freshman? No, not at all. But I do think if you're recruiting him you need to take into account that you could, theoretically, get a kid who goes for like 6 ppg and 5 rpg as a frosh and then leaves (I realize neither of these things happened with Melo, but pointing out that they could have happened). In that case, obviously, it's probably better to find Tyler Roberson and try to work through some flaws or Rick Jackson and be OK with some limitations.

Just a thought.

Yup. It comes down to who made a bigger impact on the program: Johnny Flynn or Scoop? Donte Green or Rick Jackson? The former in both matched pairs were McD's all americans, but left quickly. The latter, who were part of the same recruiting class as Flynn / Greene, stayed all four years and turned into legitimate difference makers by the end of their careers. They also were guys who were key contributors on two of the best teams in program history.

Recruiting elite talent is awesome. But you need to catch lightning in a bottle for elite recruits to elevate a program in their first year. The recruits we tend to get can't [or don't] generally do that. Fab is a great example. So is McCullough, Greene, etc. And then those guys are gone because they have loads of potential, but they're in the NBA before they actually actualize it -- and SU never receives the full measure of benefit.

That's why it is important for us to recruit program guys with upside who turn into very good players over the course of their career. Duke landed the #1 freshman in the country three years ago in Jabari Parker. We countered with senior CJ Fair, who was every bit as good. Did he have the same upside / NBA potential as Parker? No--but he was just as good at that point of his developmental curve, compared to where Parker was on his.

The key IMO is getting the right system fits to compliment the top end talent we bring in. The Fairs, the Southerlands, the Scoops, the Jacksons, the Keitas, the Rautins. These guys get overshadowed by flashier recruits, but are often vital cogs in our team's performance--even more so than the higher rated guys.

 

[RF2044]

So I agree entirely with the one-and-done portion of this post and RF, I feel like I generally see eye-to-eye with you on most topics. But in this instance, I feel like you're kind of stretching it by adding Rak and Triche to this list. I mean, Triche and Hart had similar freshmen years and both played on teams that won a ton of games each season. But that's where the similarities end. By Hart's sophomore year, on a team that wins 33 games, he's second in scoring (in just 25 mpg) and shots 46% from 3 and 51% from the floor and grabs 4.5 rebs. Those are pretty darn efficient numbers that Triche can't touch (particularly as a soph or junior). Then Hart came back this year and went for 15.5 and 7 (3-pt % down to 36% -- still north of BT any year after his frosh year) as the best player on a team that won the national title. I mean, that's pretty crazy to think he'd be back, potentially, as a senior.

Rak was incredible as a senior and I am happy to admit that I said there was no way in hell that was happening. I ate a ton of crow ... happily. But he was really a marginal contributor for three years. The dude put up 17.5 and 9 rpg a game as a senior and still graduated with career numbers of 7.4 and 5. I mean, if we're being honest, we got three years of disappointment and one glorious senior season.

So I'm not posting this to pick nits, I'm merely saying that I think there's an interesting point in this thread. Namely: how do we find kids like Josh Hart. Or, more logically, how do we try and land more classes full of Lydons, Richardsons, and Howards -- kids who can play as frosh and have the potential to be here for at least two years? That seems to be a combo that has eluded us to a large extent outside of MCW (remember Waiters did some OK things as a frosh but had a really rocky season; Fab was terrible as a frosh, DC has had a tough time figuring things out, it took Xmas three years ... Guys like Fair and even moreso like Lydon are huge currency for programs these days. We need more of them.

I think you're focusing too much on Triche. Triche's senior year shooting numbers [outside of the scoring column] were decidedly below his other seasons. That sucked. But by the postseason, when he dialed in, he and MCW were virtually unstoppable off of the bounce and carried us to the final four. Remember how they abused the Indiana guards? So my point was that we had a guy who was a four year guy [the premise of the OP] who was capable of dominating and helping the team make a deep run.

Substitute any other player that you like, and the point is still valid. Gee... that CJ Fair was unstoppable against Michigan in the Final Four... I can't believe Syracuse is getting him back for his senior year...

I don't disagree about how Rak's career unfolded. And obviously, the 2015 season probably was one of the worst teams we've fielded in more than two decades. But we still managed to blow out top 10-ish teams in Notre Dame and Louisville. And Rak was still posted an all american caliber season. So while his developmental curve progression might not be similar to Hart's the point remains that he was a four year guy [premise of OP] who got better and was incredible later in his career.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Well, we definately don't make the Final Four without Triche, Southerland and CJ in 2013. They were as important as MCW on that team and all "program" guys. You can win with high level program "guys" if your willing to be patient and let them develop. They all had smaller roles and shared time with other guys in their underclass years, but by their Senior year they were ready to lead the team.

What's so unique about this Nova team, is in Archidiacano and Ochefu's first year (the year they beat us in OT in Nova after he hit a shot in the corner because we didn't guard him) is they didn't even make the tournament. Those guy's weren't ready and took their lumps their first year, went to the NIT and Jay Wright stayed the course. In other programs, those guys may have been recruited over.

 

[Alsacs]

I think you're focusing too much on Triche. Triche's senior year numbers [outside of the scoring column] were decidedly below his other seasons. That sucked. But by the postseason, when he dialed in, he and MCW were virtually unstoppable off of the bounce and carried us to the final four. Remember how they abused the Indiana guards? So my point was that we had a guy who was a four year guy [the premise of the OP] who was capable of dominating and helping the team make a deep run.

Substitute any other player that you like, and the point is still valid. Gee... that CJ Fair was unstoppable against Michigan in the Final Four... I can't believe Syracuse is getting him back for his senior year...

I don't disagree about how Rak's career unfolded. And obviously, the 2015 season probably was one of the worst teams we've fielded in more than two decades. But we still managed to blow out top 10-ish teams in Notre Dame and Louisville. And Rak was still posted an all american caliber season. So while his developmental curve progression might not be similar to Hart's the point remains that he was a four year guy [premise of OP] who got better and was incredible later in his career.

Triche was not Hart.


When Triche played well the team was a NC contender. Triche's first half at Louisville in 2013 was the best half of his career and was why Syracuse was able to beat the number 1 team on the road.

Triche was never as consistent as Hart has been these last 2 years. He was 80% as good and that 20% difference is huge. It is the difference losing 2-3 games costs teams a 2 seed and makes them a 4 seed.

I wish we recruited more Triche's. If Cooney was Triche the offense would have been better.


Hart is the type of kid we need to recruit. He is Nova's CJ Fair but even better because he is a guard.

 

[RF2044]

Triche was not Hart.


When Triche played well the team was a NC contender. Triche's first half at Louisville in 2013 was the best half of his career and was why Syracuse was able to beat the number 1 team on the road.

Triche was never as consistent as Hart has been these last 2 years. He was 80% as good and that 20% difference is huge. It is the difference losing 2-3 games costs teams a 2 seed and makes them a 4 seed.

I wish we recruited more Triche's. If Cooney was Triche the offense would have been better.


Hart is the type of kid we need to recruit. He is Nova's CJ Fair but even better because he is a guard.

In your opinion that's what Hart is. The NBA doesn't seem to agree nor share that opinion.

Again, too much preoccupation with Triche specifically, and not enough on the other examples.

And for the record, JB has done an outstanding job over the years taking under-recruited gems and turning them into our Hart's. Sherman Douglas. Hakim Warrick. CJ Fair. Etc. Etc.

 

[Alsacs]

In your opinion that's what Hart is. The NBA doesn't seem to agree nor share that opinion.

Again, too much preoccupation with Triche specifically, and not enough on the other examples.

And for the record, JB has done an outstanding job over the years taking under-recruited gems and turning them into our Hart's. Sherman Douglas. Hakim Warrick. CJ Fair. Etc. Etc.

Nobody knows what the NBA thinks of the kid yet. I will say I have no doubt the kid will drafted. Maybe not first round but he will get drafted.

 

[billsin01]

I think you're focusing too much on Triche. Triche's senior year shooting numbers [outside of the scoring column] were decidedly below his other seasons. That sucked. But by the postseason, when he dialed in, he and MCW were virtually unstoppable off of the bounce and carried us to the final four. Remember how they abused the Indiana guards? So my point was that we had a guy who was a four year guy [the premise of the OP] who was capable of dominating and helping the team make a deep run.

Substitute any other player that you like, and the point is still valid. Gee... that CJ Fair was unstoppable against Michigan in the Final Four... I can't believe Syracuse is getting him back for his senior year...

I don't disagree about how Rak's career unfolded. And obviously, the 2015 season probably was one of the worst teams we've fielded in more than two decades. But we still managed to blow out top 10-ish teams in Notre Dame and Louisville. And Rak was still posted an all american caliber season. So while his developmental curve progression might not be similar to Hart's the point remains that he was a four year guy [premise of OP] who got better and was incredible later in his career.

I can see both of these arguments and, in particular, you make some good points on Triche. I guess I'd still probably fall on the other side of the argument on those b/c I feel like Triche -- and this will be an insult I suppose, though I don't really intend it to be -- was better as a complimentary player. Frosh and Junior year he only played ~20 mpg and I feel like you saw a more efficient and productive player. Shot better from 3, took better care of the ball (as a junior at least, struggled with that as a frosh to a degree) and played good defense. When he was forced into more minutes, to me his value dropped precipitously. But, I can't argue with how he played late in 2013 -- really solid in the BET, pretty good in the NCAA tourney (offensively) and part of one of the better runs of defense we've seen in a while: slowing down a talented Cal team, absolutely drubbing IU and embarrassing a good Marquette team. So I probably need to give him more credit.

With Rak, I just think we needed to get more value out of him earlier than we did. Tough to argue he wasn't unreal as a senior but it hurts to have a guy with that much talent have so little impact for three years.

 

[RF2044]

Nobody knows what the NBA thinks of the kid yet. I will say I have no doubt the kid will drafted. Maybe not first round but he will get drafted.

Fair enough--although being drafted in the second round doesn't support your contention. Kid is a fine college player, though.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I can see both of these arguments and, in particular, you make some good points on Triche. I guess I'd still probably fall on the other side of the argument on those b/c I feel like Triche -- and this will be an insult I suppose, though I don't really intend it to be -- was better as a complimentary player. Frosh and Junior year he only played ~20 mpg and I feel like you saw a more efficient and productive player. Shot better from 3, took better care of the ball (as a junior at least, struggled with that as a frosh to a degree) and played good defense. When he was forced into more minutes, to me his value dropped precipitously. But, I can't argue with how he played late in 2013 -- really solid in the BET, pretty good in the NCAA tourney (offensively) and part of one of the better runs of defense we've seen in a while: slowing down a talented Cal team, absolutely drubbing IU and embarrassing a good Marquette team. So I probably need to give him more credit.

With Rak, I just think we needed to get more value out of him earlier than we did. Tough to argue he wasn't unreal as a senior but it hurts to have a guy with that much talent have so little impact for three years.

Pretty hard to call Triche a complimentary player his SR year. He may have been better as one, but he was our 2nd leading scorer and took the 2nd most shots on the team as a SR.

Rak was just so raw when he came in. Had elite athleticism, but like most bigs it took him a while to develop.

 

[billsin01]

Pretty hard to call Triche a complimentary player his SR year. He may have been better as one, but he was our 2nd leading scorer and took the 2nd most shots on the team as a SR.

Rak was just so raw when he came in. Had elite athleticism, but like most bigs it took him a while to develop.

That's what I was pointing out on Triche -- better as a complimentary player as a frosh and junior than as a 35 mpg guy as a senior. But I can see how people would say I was an idiot based on a final four and BET tourney runner-up finish with Triche playing pretty well in that stretch.

I get that Rak was raw but it's not like he got better as a soph, then better as a junior and capped it off with a great senior season (a la Brice Johnson). Rak was brutal as a frosh, had limited value for the next two years and then all of a sudden blew the doors off as a senior. I'll take it, but it would have been nice to see solid progression soph and junior years. But I'll allow for the point, however, that everyone's path is not linear.

 

[billsin01]

The key IMO is getting the right system fits to compliment the top end talent we bring in. The Fairs, the Southerlands, the Scoops, the Jacksons, the Keitas, the Rautins. These guys get overshadowed by flashier recruits, but are often vital cogs in our team's performance--even more so than the higher rated guys.

And, for the record, yes I absolutely agree that the key is bringing in those guys to supplement while still making runs at elite talent. I think what's interesting with the class we just brought in is that all three kids -- and I know Richardson was pretty easily the most highly regarded -- were able to contribute meaningfully as frosh. So that helps immensely not only in terms of personnel issues and holes we needed to fill, but also in terms of potentially making a run in March, which we did. The key to making the run is that even if both Lydon and Richardson left, at least you'd have a final 4 to hang your hat on (though my soul would be crushed by their departures, but that's neither here nor there).

So finding that young talent outside of the top 25 or 30 that has enough polish to contribute is big but, I'd argue, so is JB's ability to work these guys in. We've seen guys with a lot of talent start out very slowly in terms of minutes. I wonder if we need to change that? I don't say that JB is wrong in riding his starters (an argument for a different thread), but because these guys need to be able to contribute earlier if they are going to leave early (even if it's not for the NBA).

I wonder if we saw a bit of a shift in that thinking this year with Franky Howard? I know we had no depth but it wasn't like he got nominal minutes to give guys breathers either. So a guy who went from logging 5 minutes total in four games in the Bahamas and then spent almost the entirety of the first four ACC games on the bench (two DNPs and 5 mpg in each of the other two games), ended up playing 17 minutes in the win over gonzaga in the NCAAs, 18 minutes in a must-win game vs. Pitt in the ACC tournament and 9 minutes in a brutal battle from behind vs. UVA. And those minutes came with Cooney playing (arguably) the best basketball player of his career at the 2, Silent G locking things down at PG and Richardson emerging as arguably the best creator on the floor.

Anyway, it will be interesting to watch b/c JB has shifted recruiting philosophies a few times in his tenure and this feels like another of those moments.