Why I'm Optimistic About The Fall

[CIL]

This is Pitt's third different staff and system in 3 years. They certainly are beatable, as they don't have a ton of talent right now.

 

[billsin01]

Prior to every good year, there are people who predict poor results. And prior to every poor year, there are folks who predict success. It's who we are. It has less to do with being Polly Annas or Chicken Littles, or my personal favorite "realistic."

Wait, what's wrong with 'realistic'? We have exceeded -- truly exceeded -- expectations as a program twice since 1993, IMO. The McNabb teams were a ton of fun and had a lot of success but never won double-figures. and since the McNabb era, we've had the 2001 team that came out of nowhere and the 2010 team that won 8 games against pretty tall odds. Otherwise, 93 was a disaster, the GRob era, the last four or five years of the P era.

I mean, I really don't see why being at least somewhat conservative in your predictions is anything other than simply making an educated guess.

 

[Chip]

This is Pitt's third different staff and system in 3 years. They certainly are beatable, as they don't have a ton of talent right now.

If we don't beat Pitt this year, then I give up. They've beaten us 10 out of 11, and the one we won took multiple OTs to win. We have them in the Dome, as you said, 3rd coach in 3 years, has to happen this year. I can't take it anymore.

Disagree with bnoro that we should have beat USF in 2011. They really outplayed us this year. We shot ourselves in the foot trying to at least make it a closer game on a couple offensive series, but they seemed a few steps ahead of us most of the game.

I just hope we finally have the #'s in some areas that we think we'll have. Most notably at WR, we need skill players on the field. If Sales, Lemon, West, Foster, Kobena, Hale, Flemming, situationally Broyld are all in the fold and useful, I'd feel a lot better about this upcoming season.

 

[kingottoiii]

USC is the only expected L and Stony Brook the only expected W. The other 10 games are up for grabs. Those ten just happen to all be against BCS teams. And six of those ten are on the road. Taking that into account, plus our record the last three years vs BCS teams (8-20), and the way we have limped into the end of every season, how can anyone expect a Bowl this year? Our breakthrough Bowl year we were 4-5 vs BCS teams, and none of those were named USC. I think 4-8 will be where we end up. If we get to a Bowl, Marrone deserves COY.

 

[OttoForLife]

I'm scared of all of those teams because we're likely going to be not good.

Agreed. Based on how we have played the last three years as a whole, you can not reasonably think we have a better than 50/50 shot to beat any BE team next year.

 

[All4SU]

Agreed. Based on how we have played the last three years as a whole, you can not reasonably think we have a better than 50/50 shot to beat any BE team next year.

A17-20 record over a three year period...last year being one game short of .500...to me suggests SU will be competing to meet or surpass that .500 mark. To me, that is reasonable, and that is looking at things "as a whole."

 

[OttoForLife]

A17-20 record over a three year period...last year being one game short of .500...to me suggests SU will be competing to meet or surpass that .500 mark. To me, that is reasonable, and that is looking at things "as a whole."

8-20 vs. BCS teams, and there was very little development (if any) you can take away from the last half of 2011. To look at Rutgers on the schedule and assume we should win it because we are us and they are them is naive.

 

[All4SU]

8-20 vs. BCS teams, and there was very little development (if any) you can take away from the last half of 2011. To look at Rutgers on the schedule and assume we should win it because we are us and they are them is naive.

I never look at one team and say we should lose this one or we should win that one. It's that kind of thinking that said we had no chance to beat WVU last season -- let alone obliterate them. The schedule is the schedule. You play 12 games. I expect SU to be competitive, and contend for a possible bowl berth. That's batting .500. I don't think that's unreasonable or naive. I expect SU to be better and more diversified offensively and defensively than last year.

 

[MikeSU02]

I never look at one team and say we should lose this one or we should win that one. It's that kind of thinking that said we had no chance to beat WVU last season -- let alone obliterate them. The schedule is the schedule. You play 12 games. I expect SU to be competitive, and contend for a possible bowl berth. That's batting .500. I don't think that's unreasonable or naive. I expect SU to be better and more diversified offensively and defensively than last year.

Let me ask you this, would you bet a meaningful amount of money that this team wins at least six regular season games?

I know this team can win six or more games. But I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[All4SU]

Let me ask you this, would you bet a meaningful amount of money that this team wins at least six regular season games?

I know this team can win six or more games. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Not a fair question because I don't really bet on anything. Again, .500 is 6-6. That's about where I expect SU to be. Could be more. Could be less. The point is, I'm not going to sit here and look at this team and say "We're doomed."

 

[MikeSU02]

Not a fair question because I don't really bet on anything. Again, .500 is 6-6. That's about where I expect SU to be. Could be more. Could be less. The point is, I'm not going to sit here and look at this team and say "We're doomed."

I don't bet on anything either. I know the team can go 6-6. I know the team can go 7-5. 5-7, etc etc.

But with what you know now, where would you put your best guess as to how we finish? What would be your on the books prognostication?

I'm not trying to trick you. Like I said, I know we can win six or more, but if you asked me for my best guess, right now I'm saying either 4 or 5 wins.

I'm not saying that means we are doomed. I'm saying that we have a tough schedule and a lot of unknowns or unprovens with this team. I have hope that AB blows up, the OL solidifies and Sales adds a key piece that can help put us over the top in a few close games. But I can't say with 100% certainty that we can get six wins. In fact, I don't know the last year I could say that.

 

[All4SU]

Like I said, I know we can win six or more, but if you asked me for my best guess, right now I'm saying either 4 or 5 wins.

As I have said, six wins.

 

[billsin01]

As I have said, six wins.

I would have zero problem with you expecting 12. I'd think you were insane, but it'd certainly be fine with me if that's where you wanted to start the season out. I just think it's strange that you seem to regard "realistic" predictions or those that try to add some sort of perspective to it as being debbie downers.

 

[All4SU]

I would have zero problem with you expecting 12. I'd think you were insane, but it'd certainly be fine with me if that's where you wanted to start the season out. I just think it's strange that you seem to regard "realistic" predictions or those that try to add some sort of perspective to it as being debbie downers.

Everyone thinks their opinion is "realistic." People who are less optimistic always use realistic to describe themselves. Realistic is as subjective as anything else.

 

[billsin01]

Everyone thinks their opinion is "realistic." People who are less optimistic always use realistic to describe themselves. Realistic is as subjective as anything else.

It's all exceedingly subjective, I'll grant you. What you're saying is that there is no reason to ever temper expectations. I mean, you wouldn't suggest that your 6-6 projection is more "realistic" than 9-3?

 

[kingottoiii]

As I have said, six wins.

That fact that you usually have us at 12 Ws and are only thinking 6 this year is worrisome .

 

[All4SU]

That fact that you usually have us at 12 Ws and are only thinking 6 this year is worrisome .

That's very true. I wondered who would call me out on that.