Why is Wisconsin ranked so high

[ImperialOrange]

This year or ever? They've played 2 ranked teams so far this year and lost both. They rarely do too much in the tourney even with favorable draws. Yet every year the pollsters try and put them in the top 10 or as close as they can to it.

192nd in PPG, 159th in RPG, 155th in APG, 87th in FG %... what am I missing?

 

[omniorange]

The one who looks most like a joke with Wisconsin is Pomeroy. If year after year a statistical model I had developed and wanted people to "pay" to see the details behind kept spitting out Wiscy as a Top 5-10 team, I'd seriously have to consider at least tweeking said model since the Jay Bilas "eye-ball" test would tell me that they simply are not that good. Decent? Yes. Maybe 20-25 range. But Top 5? Top 10? No way.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[zeekay]

Just like Duke they play mostly white players every year. Bias I say!

 

[NailstheCusefan12]

No one can actually sit there and watch an entire Wisconsin game, so it's based on their record and reputation.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

192nd in PPG, 159th in RPG, 155th in APG, 87th in FG %... what am I missing?

You are missing defense. They lead the nation in pts allowed, averaging <45 ppg

I'm not justifying their ranking but you are focusing largely on offensive stats and Ryan's forte has always been D.

They do tend to underachieve in the NCAA's.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I'm not sure why Wisconsin is highly ranked. It appears they are starting to get a little exposed, especially if they lose this Iowa game.

They are clearly built on defense. This is probably the reason why they do so well in the Pomeroy model. I'm assuming he's built in some kind of "defensive efficiency" stat, as well as using more traditional stats like opponent ppg. Because they perform so well on the defensive side of the stats (high ranked in a lot of categories), it results in a high Pomeroy ranking.

Wisc does get the most out of their severely limited athletic capability.

 

[Toga]

You are missing defense. They lead the nation in pts allowed, averaging <45 ppg

I'm not justifying their ranking but you are focusing largely on offensive stats and Ryan's forte has always been D.

They do tend to underachieve in the NCAA's.

Good defense yes, but the ppg average is also helped by the fact that some freshly painted wall somewhere has dried on each of their possessions.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I'm pretty sure KenPom adjusts for tempo...so Wisconsin isn't #1 simply by virtue of slow-ball.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I'm not sure why Wisconsin is highly ranked. It appears they are starting to get a little exposed, especially if they lose this Iowa game.

They are clearly built on defense. This is probably the reason why they do so well in the Pomeroy model. I'm assuming he's built in some kind of "defensive efficiency" stat, as well as using more traditional stats like opponent ppg. Because they perform so well on the defensive side of the stats (high ranked in a lot of categories), it results in a high Pomeroy ranking.

Wisc does get the most out of their severely limited athletic capability.

Pomeroy's Pyth is 1/(1+(points allowed per possession/points scored per possession)10.25power)

Based on that Defensive points per possession is weighted slightly greater than offensive points per possession.

 

[Cuseman78]

Not so good today from behind the arc. Something like 2-25 or so. You aren't winning games shooting like that. Shocking loss.

 

[HOFCeluck]

TW just bew devils advocate Syracuse has only played one ranked team and have underachieved in the tournament since the title. Why are we number one?

 

[pearl31]

nice loss at home to a wretched Iowa team.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

You are missing defense. They lead the nation in pts allowed, averaging <45 ppg

I'm not justifying their ranking but you are focusing largely on offensive stats and Ryan's forte has always been D.

They do tend to underachieve in the NCAA's.

Per Pomeroy's stats, they have the number #1 defensive effective field goal percentage, give up the 11th least offensive rebounds, and give up the 13th least free throw attempts per field goal attempts.

Simply put, teams don't get off good shots, Wisconsin rebounds well and doesn't foul, add to that they give up the least turnovers on the offensive end and it is a pretty strong defensive mix.

 

[ImperialOrange]

TW just bew devils advocate Syracuse has only played one ranked team and have underachieved in the tournament since the title. Why are we number one?

Because we are undefeated, play defense, AND score points?

 

[BlackSquirrels]

This year or ever? They've played 2 ranked teams so far this year and lost both. They rarely do too much in the tourney even with favorable draws. Yet every year the pollsters try and put them in the top 10 or as close as they can to it.

192nd in PPG, 159th in RPG, 155th in APG, 87th in FG %... what am I missing?

To add to what some others have already said, Wisconsin will never look good if you're using per game stats because they play at such a slow tempo. This yields less opportunities for points, rebounds, assists, etc. They look much better when you use tempo-free stats like points per possession and rebound percentage. (Also, using assists to evaluate a team isn't particularly useful. It's possible to have an excellent offense without a lot of assists.)

Their FG% becomes a lot better when you consider they take an above average number of shots from 3-point range and shoot around 40% on those 3s.

Would I have predicted they lose to Iowa? Of course not...that's a huge surprise. However, I wouldn't say the loss is a huge mystery. They shot 3/28 on 3s...that's basketball.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Just going by the guidlines you outlined in your initial post...don't disagree with you. Like I said just devils advocate.

 

[Knicks411]

I think it is worth exploring why they always rank SO high in the Pomeroy rankings. (But yes, they play like the slowest pace in the nation, looking at per game offensive stats is the worst way to evaluate them).

I think the Pomeroy ratings tend to overrate them, but they are usually one of the 15 or so best teams in the country. They have already lost 2 home games this year though.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I think it is worth exploring why they always rank SO high in the Pomeroy rankings. (But yes, they play like the slowest pace in the nation, looking at per game offensive stats is the worst way to evaluate them).

I think the Pomeroy ratings tend to overrate them, but they are usually one of the 15 or so best teams in the country. They have already lost 2 home games this year though.

The Iowa game looks like a What loss for them. Their biggest problem is when there shots are not falling. Then held both UNC and Marq under 1 point per possession in their games, but their effective field goal %s were awful. Today, Wisconsin's eFG% was the worst it has been all season and it allowed Iowa to score over 1 point per possession.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Just going by the guidlines you outlined in your initial post...don't disagree with you. Like I said just devils advocate.

Oh I know. My initial post wasn't some well thought out articulate post anyway. Just thinking out loud when I saw Wisconsin losing and looked at their schedule and their #11 ranking.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

nice loss at home to a wretched Iowa team.

Let's give a little to credit to Iowa's head coach, Fran McCaffery. who is in second year there after five years at Siena.

 

[PoppyHart]

Since Ryan took over at Wisconsin in 2001:

10 NCAA tourneys: 14 NCAA wins

JB in that time frame:

7 NCAA tourneys, 13 NCAA wins

Now, who is it that's underachieving?

 

[ImperialOrange]

Since Ryan took over at Wisconsin in 2001:

10 NCAA tourneys: 14 NCAA wins

JB in that time frame:

7 NCAA tourneys, 13 NCAA wins

Now, who is it that's underachieving?

Meh, if we were playing in the Big Ten our bubble snubbed teams would likely have been top 4 in conference