Why the lost art is lost.

[Knicks411]

Are folks suggesting that an average or better shooter decline to take an open 16 footer as opposed to a contested / somewhat contested 3?

I don't know, are people suggesting the opposite?

That's fine for Steph and Melo but do you really want Kaleb, Buss or a even a struggling Cooney to base their game on what Steph and Melo are doing? And yet that's the kind of players most college guys are.

I've been trying to pull up splits for our guys but I'm not having as much luck. Cooney for his career is shooting 44.9% from 2 and 33.5% from 3. The 33.5% from 3 is equivalent to roughly over 50% from 2, so yeah, I'd rather him take the 50% shot. (edit: I was able to find some more data, Cooney shoots about 50% at the rim, so if you back those out of his 2 point%, it's probably closer to around 50%).

Patterson for his career is 21.7% from 3; Kaleb is 6-32 (18.9%). Those guys are are horrendous 3 point shooters; I don't think that accurately reflects how the average player in college shoots it from 3. So yeha, if you have a guy who shoots it around 20% from 3, then I don't think anyone is suggesting they should be taking more 3's until they improve their shot. But I'm also not sure how stepping inside the line magically improves your % either. The average 3 point% is 34.3, the average two point % is 47.8%. I don't have the numbers, but I'd pretty much bet my life that the average 2 point% for the guys who are taking 3's is probably in the low 40's, if not worse.

 

[Toga]

Even the best shooters though don't shoot a great percentage from mid-range though. Steph Curry is pretty much the best shooter on the planet; from 3-10 feet his career % is 40.7%, from 10-16 feet he's at 44.9%, and from 16-23 he's at 46.7%. Those aren't terrible, but he's essentially the same (43.4%) from 3 point range and you get an extra point.

People talk about Melo and his mid range game, for his career he's below 40% from 3-10 and 10-16 feet, and 41.2% from 16-23. 34.5% from 3. He shoots a better percentage from 3 point range than from 3-10 feet.

From all my years of watching hoops, I think a shot from 10-16 is a higher percentage shot than from 3-10.

 

[Knicks411]

From all my years of watching hoops, I think a shot from 10-16 is a higher percentage shot than from 3-10.

Hoop data stops in 2013, but in 2013 it was 39.7% from 3-9 feet and 41.8% from 10-15. It looks like going back they are pretty close, some years 3-9 was better, some years 10-15, but never by much either way.

Edit: Didn't make this clear; but this is NBA data

 

[sufandu]

For his career Jordan shot 51.0% on 2 point baskets. This ratio translates into 1.02 points per 2 point shot from the floor. His 3 point percentage of 32.7% resulted in .981 pps. No reasonable analysis would say that Mr. Jordan was taking bad shots. At roughly 1.0 pps from the floor it would seem that he was taking exactly the right amount of shots.

The 2 point shot is only bad if the shooter shoots below 50.0%. However, the greatest to ever play the game shot just above this mark.

So you're agreeing with me, right?

 

[SUMBA]

So you're agreeing with me, right?

Not exactly. I believe that you stated that MJ took a number of shots that analytics would suggest are bad shots. I am saying that the analysis cannot be complete without factoring in the percentage made. These shots may have been poor choices for average players, on that we agree, but with Jordan making 51.0% of 2 point attempts they were good shots for him.

 

[sufandu]

Not exactly. I believe that you stated that MJ took a number of shots that analytics would suggest are bad shots. I am saying that the analysis cannot be complete without factoring in the percentage made. These shots may have been poor choices for average players, on that we agree, but with Jordan making 51.0% of 2 point attempts they were good shots for him.

I think you're over thinking my comment. Most people that live by analytics claim that a long 2 is the worst shot in basketball. I said that MJ made a living hitting that shot because he was so good at it. So I agree with you. I just didn't bother to look up the percentages.

 

[Millhouse]

I think this is the key. I think it's sometimes too easy to look at all of the the analytics and forget people aren't robots. You have to be comfortable with the shots your taking. MJ made a killing taking shots that modern analytics would characterize as garbage, especially during the second threepeat run, but he was a terrible three point shooter.

modern analytics looks at individual players shooting

no one would tell michael jordan not to do something just because the average player wouldn't

we're talking about the game in general, so you look at everything. if we were mavs fans, analytics says shoot 17 footers all day Dirk

 

[Cheriehoop]

I wonder how one can discern just from statistics (without a shot chart) about 2 point shots when a player is driving towards the basket vs taking a mid- range jumper? I would also guess that the probability of being fouled resulting in an opportunity for 3 points is greater on drives than jumpers . Even that can vary depending if the 2 point jumper is a drive and pop vs an open jumper.

Also what's the value of getting an opponent in foul trouble on 2 point shots vs the rarer chance of getting fouled on a 3 point shot? Lots of variables here that are difficult to account for without much deeper and detailed statistics.

 

[Knicks411]

I think you're over thinking my comment. Most people that live by analytics claim that a long 2 is the worst shot in basketball. I said that MJ made a living hitting that shot because he was so good at it. So I agree with you. I just didn't bother to look up the percentages.

Well Jordan made 51% of his 2 pointers, but it's not like he made 51% of his 2 point jumpers. A lot of that 51% were dunks and layups. He did transition to the jumper later on in his career, and of course he's Jordan so he was the best player and the rules don't necessarily apply to him, but I just wanted to point that out

 

[RoysRunts]

and then you have the underutilized bank shot.
http://www.sciencecodex.com/the_physics_of_bank_shots

You think bank shots you think Sam Jones

 

[SUMBA]

I wonder how one can discern just from statistics (without a shot chart) about 2 point shots when a player is driving towards the basket vs taking a mid- range jumper? I would also guess that the probability of being fouled resulting in an opportunity for 3 points is greater on drives than jumpers . Also what's the value of getting an opponent in foul trouble on 2 point shots vs the rarer chance of getting fouled on a 3 point shot? Lots of variables here that are difficult to account for without much deeper and detailed statistics.

Agreed, 100%. My analysis is extremely limited and would be aided greatly by a shot chart. At the rim shots have a higher percentage and increase the likelihood of the shooter being fouled. Getting fouled has the dual benefit of gaining free throws and pushing the defender closer to disqualification. The value of the former depends on the shooter's free throw percent, the latter on the value of the defender to the opponent.

This serves to support the thesis that every team should jam it down low or shoot from behind the arc. These shots have the highest probability of producing maximum points per shot.

 

[SUMBA]

I think you're over thinking my comment. Most people that live by analytics claim that a long 2 is the worst shot in basketball. I said that MJ made a living hitting that shot because he was so good at it. So I agree with you. I just didn't bother to look up the percentages.

Then, yes, I am agreeing with you .

 

[Knicks411]

Agreed, 100%. My analysis is extremely limited and would be aided greatly by a shot chart. At the rim shots have a higher percentage and increase the likelihood of the shooter being fouled. Getting fouled has the dual benefit of gaining free throws and pushing the defender closer to disqualification. The value of the former depends on the shooter's free throw percent, the latter on the value of the defender to the opponent.

This serves to support the thesis that every team should jam it down low or shoot from behind the arc. These shots have the highest probability of producing maximum points per shot.

Basketball reference has shot distributions based on at rim, 3-10, 10-16, 16-23, and 3 pointers. I'm sure the sportvu stuff can break it down even more.

One thing I find funny is for years people have been bemoaning th e "sportscenterization" (its a word, don't worry) of basketball, that dunks and 3's are the only thing that get on the highlights so thats all kids now focus on when the reality is, coincidence or not, those are the most efficient shots.

 

[SUMBA]

Well Jordan made 51% of his 2 pointers, but it's not like he made 51% of his 2 point jumpers. A lot of that 51% were dunks and layups. He did transition to the jumper later on in his career, and of course he's Jordan so he was the best player and the rules don't necessarily apply to him, but I just wanted to point that out

Agreed, and I am not suggesting that anyone should never shoot a mid range jumper. Only that the first choices should be jam it down low or shoot the three. The mid range jumper should be settled for or given by the defense. I am looking forward to Tyler Roberson making a living off of mid range jumpers next year. It is my opinion that a D1 player left open from 15-17 feet should make 50% or more of those shots. I expect Tyler to spend the summer shooting from the elbow and being a prolific scorer next year.

 

[Knicks411]

Agreed, and I am not suggesting that anyone should never shoot a mid range jumper. Only that the first choices should be jam it down low or shoot the three. The mid range jumper should be settled for or given by the defense. I am looking forward to Tyler Roberson making a living off of mid range jumpers next year. It is my opinion that a D1 player left open from 15-17 feet should make 50% or more of those shots. I expect Tyler to spend the summer shooting from the elbow and being a prolific scorer next year.

There's no way for me to prove this, because I don't have the Sportvu info, but I think you may be giving the average D1 (or NBA player for that matter) too much credit. But I don't know the splits of open shots vs contested shots so hard to say. But the average NBA player makes about 40% of his shots from 10-16 feet.

 

[Lawrinson14]

My visual representation of this thread:

 

[SWC75]

It's obvious that the bets shot selection for Steph Curry, (or even Trevor Cooney) is not the best shot selection for Kaleb Jospeh. Therefore a coach that insists all his players either jack up a three or take it to the hole because over overall nation-wide stats, (especially NBA stats when he's coaching a college team), is an idiot. It's like saying that every baseball player in the line-up should swing for the fences, even the diminutive lead-off guy and the line-drive hitters. Every player should develop the bast shots for him and use them.

 

[SUMBA]

It's obvious that the bets shot selection for Steph Curry, (or even Trevor Cooney) is not the best shot selection for Kaleb Jospeh. Therefore a coach that insists all his players either jack up a three or take it to the hole because over overall nation-wide stats, (especially NBA stats when he's coaching a college team), is an idiot. It's like saying that every baseball player in the line-up should swing for the fences, even the diminutive lead-off guy and the line-drive hitters. Every player should develop the bast shots for him and use them.

No one has even remotely suggested anything different. I have simply stated that shots behind the arc and at or around the rim are the most likely to maximize points per shot.

 

[SWC75]

No one has even remotely suggested anything different. I have simply stated that shots behind the arc and at or around the rim are the most likely to maximize points per shot.

For everybody?

 

[Czar]

For everybody?

Yes, for everybody.

 

[moqui]

This is the thing. I watched some of the Jazz and Lakes last night. These are not good teams. The level of play was awesome though.

Hijack alert:
I am really impressed with what the Jazz are building. Tough to break through in the loaded West, but they have done a great job accumulating young talent. Exum, Hayward, Favors, Gobert - hard to see that quartet not growing into a Western power soon. Gobert is a future DPOY & Ex is a future All Defensive teamer

 

[moqui]

the midrange game will have its time in the sun again. the whole point of analytics is to identify market inefficiencies. As the space & pace game becomes dominant, defenses will evolve to focus so heavily on the arc & the cup that the midrange will be the open area. Smart teams will look for players who can exploit that. In 5 years or so, the next revolution will be built on the mid range jumper.

 

[Scooch]

It's obvious that the bets shot selection for Steph Curry, (or even Trevor Cooney) is not the best shot selection for Kaleb Jospeh. Therefore a coach that insists all his players either jack up a three or take it to the hole because over overall nation-wide stats, (especially NBA stats when he's coaching a college team), is an idiot. It's like saying that every baseball player in the line-up should swing for the fences, even the diminutive lead-off guy and the line-drive hitters. Every player should develop the bast shots for him and use them.

 

[Knicks411]

the midrange game will have its time in the sun again. the whole point of analytics is to identify market inefficiencies. As the space & pace game becomes dominant, defenses will evolve to focus so heavily on the arc & the cup that the midrange will be the open area. Smart teams will look for players who can exploit that. In 5 years or so, the next revolution will be built on the mid range jumper.

Maybe, I get what you're saying, but unless teams get worse at shooting 3's, the math is still gonna be there. Yeah i get it though, teams will be so focused on defending the 3 point line that you can get more mid range jumpers.

I agree with you ont he Jazz, to an extent. The west is so good, but I really love the Gobert/Favors front line.

 

[Scooch]

It's obvious that the bets shot selection for Steph Curry, (or even Trevor Cooney) is not the best shot selection for Kaleb Jospeh. Therefore a coach that insists all his players either jack up a three or take it to the hole because over overall nation-wide stats, (especially NBA stats when he's coaching a college team), is an idiot. It's like saying that every baseball player in the line-up should swing for the fences, even the diminutive lead-off guy and the line-drive hitters. Every player should develop the bast shots for him and use them.