Winning Plays - Louisville (surprising)

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE LOUISVILLE GAME

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: LOU 25, LOU 25, LOU 35
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 1
P: 49 to LOU 15, 42 to LOU 35, 45 to LOU 12, 34 to LOU 10, 59 to LOU 25, 36 to LOU 49
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 1
FG: Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 2

1r: 7, 13, -2, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6(15), 5, 5, 2, 3, 4(1), 7, 8, 6, 1(22), 6, 0, 1, 12, 5
Total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 7
1p: 4, 23, I, I, 16(P), I, -4, 13, 8, I, 35, -7(S), INT
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Louisville 14
2r: 6(12), 3, 1, 12(4), 2(5), -1, 3(2), 1(27), 2(1), 5(3), 4(2), 9(4), 2(21), 5(4), 1199), 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 7
2p: 9(3), INT, I, I, I, 12(10), I, 19(9), I, INT, I, 7(7), 17(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 15
3r: 3(2), 1, 0, 12(15), 5(5), -4
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 3
3p: I, I, I, 6(3), INT, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 9
4r: 8TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 27 Louisville 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Louisville 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Louisville 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5, +5, -12, -5 Syracuse 2 Louisville 7

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 50 Louisville 48

Comments: Our offense was not inert in this game. It was just destroyed by the four interceptions. We ran the ball much better than we passed wit, which was a reversal of the season trend. The penalties didn’t help either. It’s interesting that 13 of the 15 penalties that negated plays in this game were against the offense.


When Louisville had the ball:

KO: SU 35, SU 22, SU 25, SU 25, SU 27, SU 12, SU 23, SU 28, SU 29
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 5
P: 56 to SU 23, 41 to SU 32, 58 to SU 9
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 8
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 16

1r: 29, 46TD, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 7, 9, 3, 54, 16, 2, 56TD, 12, 9, 11, 2, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 12
1p: 19, 10, I, 16, I, I, 72TD, I, 4, I, 29TD, 10(15)
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 19
2r: 4, 6(18), 2(15), 0, 3(4), 43TD, 33TD, 2(3), 4(8), -1, 1(15), -1, 5(5), 9(8), 3(8)
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 7
2p: I, 5(8), -9(S), I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 0
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 7
3r: 3(1), 0, 19TD, 2(3), 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 2
3p: I, 13(12), 21(13), I, 9(5), 24(3), 23, I, I, 16(7), 7(14)
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 7
4r: 5(4)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: 4(5), I, 34TD
Total: Syracuse Louisville
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 Louisville 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Louisville 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 6 Louisville 0

Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 46 Louisville 52

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 96 Louisville 100

Comments: Yup. Per winning plays, this was a close game. It wasn’t like the 2013 Georgia tech game, which we lost 0-56, (46 plays to 113) or the Florida State game alter that season, which we lost 3-59, (55-104) or last year’s Clemson game that we lost 0-54, (74-120). We were not dominated on a play-to=play basis in this game. We lost 10-56 based on two types of plays: those four offensive interceptions and on ‘explosive’ plays, which are defined as plays that gained 20 yards or more. SU had two explosive plays of 23 and 35 yards, neither of which scored. We did get a field goal out of on of those drives. Louisville’s explosive plays: 29, 46TD, 43TD, 24, 33TD, 72TD, 23, 34TD, 54, 56TD, 29TD. That’s 11 explosive plays for 443 yards and 7TDs. Louisville’s other TD was a 19 yard run by Lamar Jackson. I think if he’d had to go one more yard, I think he would have made it. If you ad that in, Louisville got 460 yards and all 8 TDs on 12 plays. Louisville ran 72 plays in this game and gained 727 yards. So on 60 plays they gained 267 yards and didn’t score and on those 12 plays they gained 460 yards and scored 8 times. We gained 335 yards in 78 plays. If you take away our two explosive plays, we gained 277 yards in 76 plays and scored a touchdown. So we won 136 of the 150 plays, (91%), 7-0 and lost the other 14 plays 3-56. Our ‘good’ defensive performances were marred by 1-2 plays where we let the other team get away and score on big plays. The difference between this game and those games was that we did that a dozen times. The rest of the game wasn’t that much different from what we’ve been doing all year.

This was a -4 game. Here are the similar games since I started keeping track of this in 2011:

2011 Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2 We lost 21-28
2011 Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6 We lost 20-33
2012 Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6 We lost 29-42
2012 Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6 We won 31-27
2015 Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5 We lost 24-34
2016 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 We won 31-17
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24
2017 Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 We lost 43-64
2017 Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56

Basically, if you are winning your share of the plays, the game is going to be decided based on something else.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 5-1 +3-3 + 4-2 + 4-1 + 7-1 + 2-1 = 48-18
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 + 3-1 + 4-1 +2-2 + 1-2 + 4-2 + 3-0 + 5-1 = 42-11
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 +2-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 1-0 = 22-7
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 +3-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 = 34-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 + 9-4 + 14-2 + 10-5 + 10-4 + 12-5 + 17-3 + 9-2= 146-37

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 + 3-7 + 10-11 + 11-9 + 8-13 + 11-10 + 6-4 + 15-7 = 95-108
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 + 9-12 + 6-10 + 7-9 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 19-15 + 6-7 = 102-98
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 + 12-19 + 16-21 + 18-18 + 12-24 + 20-15 + 25-19 + 21-14 = 197-206
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 + 2-7 + 4-5 + 7-7 + 9-8 + 2-6 + 5-5 + 9-7 = 53-65
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 + 8-8 + 13-7 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 9-15 + 9-13 + 5-8 = 80-113
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +12-13 + 8-18 + 10-15 +17-12 + 11-15 + 12-20 + 11-21 + 14-18 + 14-15 = 133-178
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 2-4 + 4-4 + 6-2 + 6-2 + 4-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 = 42-39
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-6 + 3-8 + 3-8 + 6-10 + 7-10 + 4-8 + 1-6 = 49-83
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 + 7-10 + 7-12 + 9-10 + 12-12 + 11-15 + 7-11 + 3-9 = 91-122
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 15-1
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-1= 6-11
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 3-2 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 3-2 + 1-1 = 21-12

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 + 8-18 + 21-20 + 26-18 + 24-23 + 17-22 + 15-12 + 27-17 = 205-213
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 + 24-27 + 22-27 + 14-25 + 13-34 + 26-31 + 34-38 + 12-22 = 237-305
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 + 32-45 + 43-47 + 40-43 + 37-57 + 43-53 + 49-50 + 39-39 = 442-518

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 4-6 + 7-10 + 2-1 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 2-7 = 35-45

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 + 44-56 + 61-55 + 57-58 + 49-62 + 57-59 + 69-54 + 50-48 = 623-600

Comment: We have a winning record on offense because we are +109 on kicking plays. We can put the “foot” in football. But we are -76 on plays from scrimmage. We think of ourselves as a passing team but we’ve actually done better on running plays ((205-213) than passing plays (237-305).


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 + 3-4 + 0-4 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-5 + 4-7 + 4-5 = 24-42
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 2-4 + 1-4 + 2-4 + 2-7 + 3-1 + 0-3 = 24-47
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-0 = 3-14
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-6 + 0-8 = 2-40
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 + 6-12 + 2-13 + 5-11 + 4-13 + 3-17 + 8-17 + 4-16 = 53-143

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 + 13-12 + 7-6 + 6-6 + 3-8 + 4-13 + 8-15 + 8-12 = 88-103
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 + 8-6 + 5-9 + 6-7 + 13-9 + 3-5 + 10-11 + 5-7 = 81-71
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 + 21-18 + 12-15 + 12-13 + 16-17 + 7-18 + 18-26 + 13-19 = 169-174
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 5-7 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 3-11 + 7-7 + 5-10 + 8-7= 56-67
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 + 4-12 + 5-5 + 5-10 + 4-11 + 3-2 + 5-6 + 5-0 = 61-65
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 + 9-19 + 10-8 + 9-11 + 7-22 + 10-9 + 10-16 + 13-7 = 117-132
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 + 1-3 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 4-2 + 5-1 + 4-3 + 3-2 = 35-20
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 7-1 + 7-2 + 6-1 + 4-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 5-6 = 67-29
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 + 8-4 + 10-3 + 9-2 + 8-4 + 12-2 + 8-8 + 8-8 = 102-49
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 = 3-3
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 5-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 2-2 = 8-7

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 + 21-22 + 15-10 + 13-8 + 10-21 + 16-21 + 17-30 + 19-22 = 182-193
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-16 + 16-10 + 19-19 + 17-16 + 18-18 + 22-22 + 13-9 + 19-22 + 17-14 = 214-169
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-33 + 28-33 + 40-41 + 32-26 + 31-26 +32-43 + 29-30 + 36-52 + 36-36 = 396-362

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 + 2-2 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 7-2 + 6-0 = 28-18

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-49 + 31-48 + 49-56 + 36-41 + 38-39 + 37-57 + 33-49 + 51-71 + 46-52 = 477-523

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-100 + 80-103+ 93-112 + 97-96 + 95-97 + 86-119 + 90-108 +120-125 + 96-100 = 1100-1123

Comment: I know we’ve been clobbered on the scoreboard the last two weeks but we got the minimum we would want to have achieved in 216 of 441 plays (49%). That means that the games were determined by explosive plays, running the good plays together, (like hits in a baseball game) and turnovers. Our least competitive performance on a play-to-play basis was actually the Miami game. We stayed in that one and the LSU, NC State and Florida State games by still another factor: retaining the ball on third and 4th down and preventing the other team from doing so.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
TOTAL: Syracuse 1100 Opponents 1123 = -23 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of 11 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 7,580 plays, (48.1%) and 29 games, (34.15%). The opposition has won 8,163 plays and 54 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 583 more plays than we have in 85 games, an average of 6.9 plays a game.

 

[upperdeck]

it was a winnable game, we could move the ball, but we didn't have the huge chunk plays like UL did, and grinding out things with backup QBs is tough,