SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: UL 9
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
P: 37 to UL 30, 42 to UL 19, 37 to UL 8, 53 to UL 28, 56 to UL 30, 32 to UL 29
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 2
1r: 0, 10, 4, 10, 4, 4, 9(15), 4, 7, 4, 13, 6, 2
Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 2
1p: 11, I, 3, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 5
2r: -2, 0, 10(12), 9(6), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 3
2p: 6, I, I, 20(6), -6s, 5, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 7
3r: 5(13),1(6), 0, 0, 9(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 4
3p: -2s, I, Interception, I, -6s
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: I, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 4 Louisville 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 18 Louisville 25
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 23 Louisville 30
When Louisville had the ball:
KO: SU 29, SU 25, Recovered Fumble, SU 22, Recovered Fumble, SU 16, SU 34
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 5
P: 61 to SU 25, 39 to SU 30, 28 to SU 12
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: Good from 50, Good from 40, Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 13
1r: 1, 4, 4, 17, 2, -1, 4, 10, 12, 6, 3, 4, 2, -3, 1, 11, 12, 0, 11, 9, 3, 0, 3, 1(20)
Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 11
1p: I, I, Fumble(s), 10(20), 14, 16, 2(4), 6, I, Interception, I, -5, -10s, -2s
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Louisville 16
2r: 4(6), -2, -4, -1, 8(7), -4, 2TD, 2(6), 4(9), -2, 20(15), -2, 8(1), 3(20)
Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 5
2p: 2(11), I, Interception, 9, 16, 4(8), 42(4-p) 12, 13(22), I, 10, 25(7), 8(19)
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 13
3r: 22(12), 2(11), -1, 0, 4TD, -3
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
3p: 10(9), 15(6), I, 5(4), I, 11912), 19TD, 21(17), 4(12), -11s
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 7
4r: 6(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: 13(5)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Louisville 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Louisville 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Louisville 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -10, +15, -5, -5, -5, -10, -5 Syracuse 6 Louisville 2
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 53 Louisville 53
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 Louisville 83
Comments: Any time you only kick the ball 7 times and 6 of them were punts, you know you had a tough game. Andre Szmyt, a great weapon, never entered the field of play and our only kick-off was to start the second half. (Louisville kicked the ball 16 times and 3 were punts.) When you run 41 plays, (8 a quarter) to 79, (virtually twice as many), that’s also not a good sign.
Which makes it a huge surprise that this was a close game in terms of plays ‘won’, just 76-83. A big factor in this was that the better unit of our team on scrimmage plays, (the kicking team is the best unit of our team), our defense, was on the field a lot more than the worst unit of our team, the offense. And the defense actually had quite a game, with 13 TFLs for -52 yards. Louisville had only 4 for -16 yards. Also, we ran the ball well, winning 14 of 23 running plays. The whole problem was that our passing game was non-existent. We attempted to pass 20 times and got 4 successful plays out of it, One of which went 20 yards, another for 11 yards, another for 6 and the other for 5. We used to get one long bomb for a score per game. No longer. It resulted in our going 1 for 11 on 3rd and 4th down, with the one success a running play on the last play of the game, down 0-30. Consequently, it’s impact was somewhat muted.
Similar games from the Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24
2017: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 We lost 43-64
2017: Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 We lost 14-41
2020: Syracuse 76 Louisville 83 = -7 We lost 0-30
This shows the importance of big plays, turnovers and third downs. It isn’t enough to win plays, you’ve got to hit the long ball or string your hits together to score.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: UL 9
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
P: 37 to UL 30, 42 to UL 19, 37 to UL 8, 53 to UL 28, 56 to UL 30, 32 to UL 29
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 2
1r: 0, 10, 4, 10, 4, 4, 9(15), 4, 7, 4, 13, 6, 2
Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 2
1p: 11, I, 3, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 5
2r: -2, 0, 10(12), 9(6), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 3
2p: 6, I, I, 20(6), -6s, 5, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 7
3r: 5(13),1(6), 0, 0, 9(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 4
3p: -2s, I, Interception, I, -6s
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: I, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 4 Louisville 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 18 Louisville 25
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 23 Louisville 30
When Louisville had the ball:
KO: SU 29, SU 25, Recovered Fumble, SU 22, Recovered Fumble, SU 16, SU 34
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 5
P: 61 to SU 25, 39 to SU 30, 28 to SU 12
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: Good from 50, Good from 40, Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 13
1r: 1, 4, 4, 17, 2, -1, 4, 10, 12, 6, 3, 4, 2, -3, 1, 11, 12, 0, 11, 9, 3, 0, 3, 1(20)
Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 11
1p: I, I, Fumble(s), 10(20), 14, 16, 2(4), 6, I, Interception, I, -5, -10s, -2s
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Louisville 16
2r: 4(6), -2, -4, -1, 8(7), -4, 2TD, 2(6), 4(9), -2, 20(15), -2, 8(1), 3(20)
Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 5
2p: 2(11), I, Interception, 9, 16, 4(8), 42(4-p) 12, 13(22), I, 10, 25(7), 8(19)
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 13
3r: 22(12), 2(11), -1, 0, 4TD, -3
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
3p: 10(9), 15(6), I, 5(4), I, 11912), 19TD, 21(17), 4(12), -11s
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 7
4r: 6(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: 13(5)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Louisville 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Louisville 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Louisville 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -10, +15, -5, -5, -5, -10, -5 Syracuse 6 Louisville 2
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 53 Louisville 53
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 Louisville 83
Comments: Any time you only kick the ball 7 times and 6 of them were punts, you know you had a tough game. Andre Szmyt, a great weapon, never entered the field of play and our only kick-off was to start the second half. (Louisville kicked the ball 16 times and 3 were punts.) When you run 41 plays, (8 a quarter) to 79, (virtually twice as many), that’s also not a good sign.
Which makes it a huge surprise that this was a close game in terms of plays ‘won’, just 76-83. A big factor in this was that the better unit of our team on scrimmage plays, (the kicking team is the best unit of our team), our defense, was on the field a lot more than the worst unit of our team, the offense. And the defense actually had quite a game, with 13 TFLs for -52 yards. Louisville had only 4 for -16 yards. Also, we ran the ball well, winning 14 of 23 running plays. The whole problem was that our passing game was non-existent. We attempted to pass 20 times and got 4 successful plays out of it, One of which went 20 yards, another for 11 yards, another for 6 and the other for 5. We used to get one long bomb for a score per game. No longer. It resulted in our going 1 for 11 on 3rd and 4th down, with the one success a running play on the last play of the game, down 0-30. Consequently, it’s impact was somewhat muted.
Similar games from the Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24
2017: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 We lost 43-64
2017: Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 We lost 14-41
2020: Syracuse 76 Louisville 83 = -7 We lost 0-30
This shows the importance of big plays, turnovers and third downs. It isn’t enough to win plays, you’ve got to hit the long ball or string your hits together to score.
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